Our look back at the second seven days of the minor league season continues. Here is what I learned.

Jonathan Lucroy was promoted fast.

Not exactly the most publicized promotion of the week, but it took the Brewers as many games to move Jon Lucroy up a level as it did the Mets to call up Ike Davis. At the break of Spring Training, the Brewers opted to return Lucroy to Double-A, presumably so they could continue to let Angel Salome play at Triple-A everyday. But with Salome off the team for a few days with a personal matter, the Brewers used it as an excuse to send Lucroy to the level he belonged.

After starting the season 2-for-8 in two games, Lucroy hit .500 for the next eight games, including three separate three-hit games. In that time he doubled three times and walked four times, and with his .452/.500/.524 batting line, the Brewers didn’t see it fit to keep him in the same place he hit .267/.380/.418 a year ago. So, Lucroy was sent to Triple-A Nashville, and made his debut on Wednesday. The former third round pick started his Sounds career with a double, a walk and a strikeout in four plate appearances, and he airmailed his only throw to second base to center field. After throwing out 41% of runners a year ago, Lucroy is now 3-for-10 this season.

In my future talent report on the Brewers before the season, I wrote, “With his plate recognition, I have some good confidence he can be a .340-.350 guy, play two-thirds of the season behind the dish, and put up 2.5-3 WAR.” Now, I’m just wondering why the Brewers would want to only play him for two-thirds of the season. With Gregg Zaun hitting just .125/.163/.150 in Milwaukee, I have a feeling we’ll see him with the big league team this season.

Mike Trout is a pretty decent prospect.

This article is a couple years old now, but it serves an important lesson in context: teenage players in the Midwest League are often overwhelmed. In the linked article, I found nearly 45,000 plate appearances from 2000-2006 by teenage position players in the MWL, and collectively, they hit just .260/.330/.381. I say this as a long way of putting Mike Trout’s early season dominance in perspective.

Because of a late birthday, Trout will play most of the entire minor league season at just 18 years old. Some of the pitchers he’s been facing early this season have been 4 or 5 years older, and it hasn’t mattered one bit. The New Jersey outfielder has hit safely in his last 11 games, a streak that includes eight multi-hit games. He has a 8/9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 65 plate appearances, and has stolen 7 bases in 8 attempts. And the make-up that has glittered his scouting reports since the beginning is still getting high praise.

If the 2009 draft was re-done today, Mike Trout would be a top 10 pick. He is also the Angels top prospect, and the leader of one of the most prospect-heavy teams in the minor leagues.

The Bradenton Marauders are good at hitting.

One of two minor league teams to hit .300, and the only one of 120 getting on base at a .400 clip, the Pittsburgh Pirates High-A affiliate has been a revelation. The team has three regulars with an OPS above 1.000, and that’s to say nothing of top team prospect Starling Marte, whose .364/.472/.523 batting line is only the fourth-best on this team. Overall, in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League, the Marauders are averaging a robust 7.3 runs per game.

If it’s not Marte that has emerged as the best prospect on the team — and I think he has — then the title belongs to Pirates top draft pick Tony Sanchez. The catcher has struggled mightily behind the plate (he’s yet to throw out a baserunner in 13 attempts), but it more than making up for it with his offense. The BC product is now hitting .316/.469/.605, drawing six walks in his last four games alone. And the team must be encouraged by the breakout of 2007 fourth round pick Quincy Latimore, who seems to now be hitting for the power that was once projected to him. Latimore has four home runs and a .395/.449/.721 batting line in 11 games.

These are all encouraging sign for a Pirates team that needed a big season the farm. With remnants of the previous regime like Latimore and Dan Moskos finally showing some life to go along with the bevy of prospects acquired in the last two seasons, things are looking up in Pittsburgh for the first time in awhile.

Perhaps not as visibly as Jack Moore’s earlier morning post on a reliever making good, Jay Sborz closed out his fifth game of the season in perfect fashion last night for the Toledo Mudhens. The second round pick way back in the 2003 draft, Sborz has fought through a barrage of injuries, and is currently standing above the slew of Tigers relief prospects as the right-hander deserving of the first call up to Motown.

In six appearances this season, Sborz has yet to allow a run, and has struck out eight of the 22 batters he has faced. More importantly, for a guy who entered the year with a career 5.7 BB/9 (and subsequently walked 7 in 4 innings in big league camp this spring), he has walked just one Triple-A batter.

Sborz was drafted in the second round of a disastrous 2003 draft for the Tigers, which started with Kyle Sleeth as the third overall pick, and has produced just these five big league players: Tony Giarratano, Virgil Vasquez, Brian Rogers, Jordan Tata and Dusty Ryan. However, Sborz has a chance to improve upon that list, as the Tigers have never given up on his big arm, even adding him to the 40-man roster this winter. Out of a Virginia high school, Sborz was chosen as the draft’s hardest teenage thrower alongside Indians first rounder Adam Miller.

As you might guess, command problems were Sborz’ first bugaboo, as he spent two seasons in the Gulf Coast League working on location, and combined to walk 58 batters in 86.1 innings. He has started just 11 games since then, moving to full-time relief work when he fully returned from Tommy John surgery in 2008. However, even since then, he’s never pitched 60 innings in a season, and has been plagued with shoulder problems even since his elbow was fixed. Still, from 2008 until today, he’s pitched about 90 innings, posted a 2.49 ERA, and struck out a batter an inning.

While the 96 mph velocity from his high school days are gone, Sborz can still dial it to 93-94, and his slider is sharper than ever. But stuff has never been the question for Sborz, and I don’t think it will be even at the highest level. It’s two things that Sborz must be past for this career revival to have a chance: he must stay healthy, and his fastball must stay in the zone.

The Tigers have been loading up on relief prospects the last few seasons — no surprise given their bullpen problems from the last three years — including taking relievers with seven of their first 10 picks in the 2008 draft. However, the best of the minor league bunch might be a once forgotten bonus baby that will see the Major Leagues soon after eight years of fighting.

I have been a little slow updating things on the draft front this spring, so today I want to talk about a few things that have become certainties in this 2010 Amateur Draft. (Also, for more great stuff, let me point you to the leaders in this coverage: SB Nation recently absorbed Andy Seiler’s great MLB Bonus Baby site, Keith Law and Jason Churchill always kill it at ESPN, and nobody does it better than my boys at Baseball America).

1. Bryce Harper is the best player available. The early billing Harper received — I first read about him in August, 2008 in an article entitled “Remember This Name” by Rich Lederer — was met with some inevitable backlash this fall, as many scouts thought Harper might be over his head in a wood bat junior college league. The feelings that the hyperbole had grown out of control were incorrect, as we may have been selling Harper’s talent short. He’s already broken the single-season home run record for the league, and has continued to show the 450-foot home runs and 95 mph fastball that created his legend. No scouts question his status as the draft’s top prospect any longer, and bonus demands are the only thing that could keep him from going 1-1.

2. After Harper, we will see a lot of pitchers drafted. It sounds like Drew Pomeranz is slowly positioning himself as the most likely #2 choice to the Pittsburgh Pirates, as 90 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA in 58.2 innings is a definitive showing. On the high school side, Texas right-hander Jameson Taillon has begun to further himself from other prep pitchers. But while those might be the top dogs, this class has every kind of pitcher short of a prep lefty. I think we will see 20 in the first 30 picks, as the lack of real hitting prospects outweighs any belief in TINSTAPP.

3. If you think patience can be taught, Gary Brown could be really good. Always cited as one of college baseball’s most exciting and talented players, Gary Brown’s resume at Cal State Fullerton before the season left a bit to be desired. This year, he’s hitting .448, and his blazing speed is on display, with 8 triples, 22 steals, and reportedly plus defense in center. The problem? He has just five walks in 158 plate appearances. His plate coverage is fantastic, as the 5 walks are contrasted by only 9 strikeouts, but his OBP is too BABIP reliant. A team will take a chance given the foot and bad speed, but Brown still has a ways to come.

4. For the first time since 2001, a reliever will not be chosen in the first round. This is an often criticized strategy, but the sheer depth of upside among starting pitchers should push relievers back a bit. There are solid relievers, like Georgia Tech RHP Kevin Jacob, James Madison RHP Kevin Munson or UCLA RHP Dan Klein, but none have the upside of a guy like Georgia RHP Justin Grimm. I don’t believe this will be the start of a long-term trend away from college relievers, it’s just the circumstance that demands it.

5. Jedd Gyorko and Kolbrin Vitek are fun names to say. These two guys are really interesting, and I remain fascinated by their ever-changing draft status. In addition to sharing interesting names, they are also two sluggers from non-traditional Division I schools (West Virginia and Ball State, respectively) that profile at second base and just hit the hell out of the baseball. Combined, the guys are hitting .378/.465/.719 this season, and have just have not given scouts a chance to dig into them. Given the lack of viable hitting prospects, I really think they should be getting late-to-supplemental first round consideration. I just can’t wait to hear Bud Selig pronounce their names.

After the jump, a brief scouting report that I wrote up almost three weeks ago, but never had time to turn into a full article. It’s from April 2, when I watched Ohio State RHP Alex Wimmers pitch against Northwestern.
Read the rest of this entry »

The fourth player from the 2008 Amateur Draft to reach the Major Leagues, Gordon Beckham has taken the early lead as the most successful pick in that draft. Beckham’s success is no surprise to scouts: his amateur pedigree was among the draft’s best. The infielder started every game the Georgia Bulldogs played from 2006 to 2008, including two seasons with runs to the College World Series. I ranked him as the ninth-best prospect from the 2007 Cape Cod League, acknowledging that a move off the shortstop position was likely. After that summer, Beckham truly broke out as a junior, hitting a D1-leading 28 home runs, with a .411/.519/.804 batting line. The rest is history.

In this year’s 2010 draft, one of the most pitcher-heavy in recent memory, there is a player that matches a lot of the points on Beckham’s resume: power hitter, dubious shortstop skills, junior season breakout, started every game in a tough conference over three seasons. And yet, Georgia Tech SS Derek Dietrich is not getting the first round play that Beckham received just two seasons ago. Considering that Dietrich was a high draft pick out of high school (third round Astros pick), where Beckham was not, the discrepancy in prospect status hasn’t always been the case.

Today, I want to investigate if we can see the divide from a statistical perspective, by comparing the performances of each during their three college seasons, as well as the Cape Cod League between their sophomore and junior years. First, we have the freshman campaigns for each player:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     332/410/592   238   26   50    3-4
GB     280/348/490   286   27   58    5-6

Since we established that Dietrich was considered the better high school prospect, it’s not real surprising that he had a better freshman season. The two had equal strikeout rates, so Dietrich’s advantage in average is the case of a better BABIP. Considering the respective conferences, both players were huge assets to their schools. Now, as sophomores:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     311/426/511   225   30   48    5-5
GB     307/399/570   228   31   33    6-12

If there is a divide in these players, it starts in Year Two. In this season, we see that Gordon takes a huge step in decreasing strikeouts, while simultaneously adding power. Dietrich, on the other hand, went from 32 XBH as a freshman to 21 as a sophomore, so there was a case of a little second-year slump. His advantage over Beckham in on-base percentage is due to 16 hits by pitch, and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to get plunked at a high rate. Let’s move onto the Cape Cod League summers:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     211/348/329   152   27   46    4-9
GB     284/370/529   155   17   40    6-7

Where I ranked Beckham highly his season, Keith Law didn’t rank Dietrich as one of the top 30 Cape prospects last summer. The two both had problems striking out against heightened competition with wood bats, but Beckham showed power (19 XBH) where Dietrich’s was more average (11 XBH). The latter was more patient, so he does show one skill over Beckham. Finally, let’s jump to the junior years:

Name   AVG/OBP/SLG    AB   BB   SO   SB-AT
DD     347/453/708   144   14   19    7-8
GB     411/519/804   275   54   30   17-21

Dietrich’s advantage in patience disappears, although their Isolated Disciplines are equal because the Tech shortstop has 14 HBP through 36 games. Dietrich has cut down on the strikeouts, but not to the degree that Beckham did in his final season with Georgia. Dietrich has already passed his XBH total from last season, and is plugging along at a power pace just below Beckham’s 2008 dominance.

*****

Part of the reason that Dietrich doesn’t get the prospect love that Beckham received in 2008 is due to a perceived difference in athleticism. Where Beckham slowly convinced some scouts he could stick at shortstop, Dietrich never has done the same. Offensively, Dietrich has shown the unfortunate combination of a little less power with a little more strikeouts, but his patience skills are right up there. I think the discrepancy between the two is a little overdone, and that Dietrich deserves more first round consideration than he has received. But despite their similarities in pedigree, these are not the same players, and Dietrich achieving Beckham’s quick success is unlikely.

I don’t think it will be particularly difficult to decipher where this format came from, but it has always been one of my favorite features on this site. Minor League Baseball has been around for a full week, and while it’s too early to draw conclusions, it has been home to some interesting subplots. As I’ll hope to do every Thursday in this space, here are three items that caught my eye on the farm.

The Kinston Indians are hard to hit.

I drew some criticism in the Future Talent section of our Indians organizational ranking for veering too rose-colored in my evaluation of the Indians farm system. And while it’s too early to be seeking out validation, I have to say the early returns of the Carolina League (High-A) Kinston Indians pitching staff do bode well for the future in Cleveland. Through 7 games, this squad has struck out a professional baseball leading 76 batters (10.86 K/9) en route to a sparkling 1.86 ERA.

Last season’s top draft pick, Alex White, is there, and struck out seven over five scoreless innings in his debut. But the team lead in whiffs is split between Nick Hagadone, one of the keys to last season’s Victor Martinez trade (0 ER, 10 K in 9.1 IP) and solid breakout candidate T.J. House, who whiffed ten in his season debut on Sunday. The bullpen is loaded with solid college arms, like Long Beach State’s David Roberts or UC Irvine’s Bryce Stowell, and has been no contest for their opponents.

Considering top prospect Carlos Santana is destroying Triple-A (.423/.516/.962 in 9 games), Nick Weglarz looks to be bouncing back in Double-A, and the Low-A squad is a perfect 7-0, this Cleveland farm system looks every bit as impressive as we made them out to be a couple weeks ago.

Christian Bethancourt is the next great Latin find for Atlanta.

Get ready to feel old. Braves catching prospect Christian Bethancourt was born in Panama on September 2, 1991. However, given that he’s a $600,000 investment that performed admirably at 17 last summer, the Braves challenged him with a full-season assignment this year to Low-A Rome. In his first game, the teenage catcher went 1-for-3, hitting a home run in the sixth inning. The next day, he went 1-for-4, which he can call his worst outing of the season.

Since then, no minor league hitter has been hotter. His first game at DH was Sunday, and he responded going 4-for-4, hitting a sac fly in his other at-bat for good measure. In his two games since, both behind the dish, Bethancourt has gone 2-for-4 in each, managing to lower his batting average both times. He is now hitting a cool .526/.500/.684 through 20 plate appearances.

Obviously, we could point out that he’s yet to walk, or yet to hit an extra-base hit since the sixth inning of his first game. But however he’s getting it done, it’s still an 18-year-old that has established himself as a force in the season’s first week. The Braves spending big money in the international market is never a good thing for their NL East peers, and while sheer luck will bring the averages down and expose Bethancourt as the unpolished player he is, talent is shining through in his first week.

It’s not so easy to hit in the California League.

Hopefully if you are a fan of the minors, you read this article by Justin Inaz in the offseason detailing the different run environments in minor league baseball. It just serves as a nice reminder to how hitter-friendly the California League has been over the years, comparing to high-altitude leagues like the Pioneer or Mexican, or extremely dry leagues like the Arizona Summer League. I even wondered on Twitter this offseason why they even still bother to have the California League in its current machination, if only for the lunacy that certain stadiums provoke.

Don’t look now, but California League pitchers have been the stars early in this season, as run scoring is down significantly. A league that averaged 5.3 runs per game from 2007-2009 is averaging 4.13 this year, and only two teams have averaged an OPS above .730. The Dodgers have aided in that cause by sending two great arms there, first rounders Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin, who have combined for a 1.69 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings. I’m also really intrigued by former Angels second rounder Tyler Chatwood, who hasn’t let 8 walks in 10 innings stop him, as he’s getting strikeouts (10) and groundballs (5.0 GO/AO) while pitching close to home.

Of course, summer will come and balls will begin to fly out of Lancaster and High Desert and Bakersfield like they always do, and the silliness of this league will again be proven. But while we actually have competitive baseball in California, let’s relish it and give praise where it’s due.

Minor League Baseball is upon us, as the farm systems for all 30 teams kick into high gear today. We can’t offer you a 34-hour live chat like our Major League brethren, but how about a six-pack of things that make me excited to cover the minors this season at FanGraphs. Feel free to offer your own bits of excitement in the comments.

1. A new #1 overall prospect. With Jason Heyward already beating my Cubs to a pulp, and Stephen Strasburg probably 4-6 starts away from joining the Nationals, every outlet that prints a top prospect list will have a new man at the top in 12 months. Our own man Marc Hulet had four players in his top 10 that I doubt will pass the rookie threshold this season, and thus still be eligible for prospect lists a year from now: Desmond Jennings, Mike Stanton, Jesus Montero and Domonic Brown.

As far as anointing a new #1 goes, I think the obvious favorites are Stanton, Montero, and Dustin Ackley. If I had to pick one player from Hulet’s 50-100 range that I think could rise this year and enter that discussion, it would probably be Simon Castro or Lonnie Chisenhall. And, we all know that Bryce Harper will be forcing his way into the discussion as well.

2. Which brings me to another minor league season favorite: the draft, and the shortened season performance of the draftees. I owe this site a draft notebook, but in lieu of that today, I’ll tell you the guys getting the most top ten buzz behind Harper (who has established himself as the clear #1). I think Deck McGuire, a three-pitch righty from Georgia Tech, will really be in the Pirates mix with the second overall pick. We established the team needs pitchers, and fast, during our organizational rankings series.

A pair of lefties, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Sale, have both had fabulous springs thus far. Pomeranz surely has the higher ceiling, but I think Sale will coast through the minor leagues in the way that Christian Friedrich has for the Rockies. You will keep hearing a lot about the top prep arms, Jameson Taillon and A.J. Cole, who will be demanding huge dollars from whoever drafts them. The top hitting prospect behind Harper is a depressing group, with prep shortstop Manny Machado and Arkansas 3B Zack Cox leading the way. I really like Cal State Fullerton OF Gary Brown, hitting .454/.496/.689 in 27 games.

3. Stateside debuts for international prospects. Obviously, the most anticipated international signee is Aroldis Chapman, who will start his season in Triple-A. He won’t be down there more than 50 innings or so should we hope to hit the projected innings pitched total that this community projected. We will have to wait until summer to see guys like Miguel Sano and Michael Ynoa, the players that recently broke their respective organization’s bonus records. Montero is proof that spending big money on top Latin prospects pays off, as he promises to be worth a lot more than his $2 million bonus (even if he doesn’t stick as catcher).

4. The breakouts of sinkerballers Kyle Allen and Stephen Fife. Of the players I highlighted at the end of my “Staring Down the Sinkerballers” series, Allen and Fife are the two players with the best stuff. Fife will start the season in Double-A, where he will be part of a rotation that includes Red Sox top prospect Casey Kelly. Allen will also be second fiddle on his squad, the High-A St. Lucie Mets, where he’ll be pitching behind Jeurys Familia. The key for both players, however, will be the performance of their infielders.

5.On the offensive side, the breakout of Joe Benson. Yes, I probably like him a little bit because he grew up not far from me. But I think this is the season that Benson stays healthy and establishes himself as a good prospect. He is a +5-10 guy in center field, and last year, showed a ton of patience (14.1 BB%). We have been talking about his strength and raw power since he was a running back in high school, and now that he’s out of the hellish A-ball hitting environments in the Twins system, I think we start to see some. Why Benson can’t be a .275/.375/.425 hitter (+12-15), which makes him a 4 WAR guy over a full season, is beyond me. If the Twins get in a dogfight in July, teams should be looking to acquire Wilson Ramos and Benson on the cheap.

6. The development of minor league analysis at FanGraphs. I am really excited about the things we have in store for you this season. Our minor league statistical offerings will be improved ten-fold, and we’ll be looking to bring you views inside the game whenever possible. I also plan to really continue investigating the new way of analyzing prospects that has been talked about, which involves pursuing (and evaluating the utility of) things like comparables, bust rate, context-neutral statistics and more. I urge you guys to let myself and Marc Hulet know what you’re looking for, and we’ll do our best to bring it to you.

Four of the 17 players drafted in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft are now Major League Baseball players (hat tip, John Manuel). Big league executives were unenthusiastic about this year’s talent level, so a lower-than-usual number of teams attempting to keep their draftees was expected. But pessimism isn’t allowed on days like this, so let’s start with the congratulations: John Raynor (Pittsburgh), Carlos Monasterios (Dodgers), Kanekoa Texeira (Mariners) and David Herndon (Phillies).

Obviously, all these guys are underdogs to still be Major Leaguers in September. But the Pirates can certainly afford to gamble on Raynor returning to 2007-2008 levels. The Dodgers and Mariners weren’t going to get tangibly better by rostering their other options rather than Monasterios or Texeira. And I am here today in support of David Herndon, the final pick in the draft that dazzled in Phillies camp by allowing just a pair of runs in 12.2 innings.

Full disclosure: the idea behind my sinker series that ushered in my debut at FanGraphs was born the day Herndon was picked by the Phillies. Herndon was a familiar name, because he was one of my sleeper prospects when Baseball America allowed me to write up the top 20 Pioneer League prospects in 2006. Any prospect analyst can tell you about the irrational affection we hold for our sleepers of yore, so even when his K/9 dipped to 4.8 last season, I hoped he’d get the opportunity to pitch in the Major Leagues.

Or, more accurately, to pitch in front of big league infielders. This season, Herndon will have the opportunity to pitch with an infield of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco. Last year, his usual group of infielders were Mark Trumbo, Ryan Mount, Hainley Statia and Wilberto Ortiz. I bring this up because, back in 2006, Herndon’s signing scout and then-manager Tom Kotchman raved and raved about the movement of Herndon’s sinker. The numbers certainly bear this out, as Minor League Splits has Herndon as a career 60.4 GB% guy in the minor leagues. Given that he’s never going to strike a lot of guys out, those infielders are of supreme importance to his success at any level.

Hopefully the Phillies share the same optimism about Herndon than I do. Hopefully they know the Angels’ reason for converting him to a reliever is because he should never face a left-handed hitter, as neither his fringe slider or non-change up are big league caliber in the slightest. They should know that if Chase Utley has a day off, that Herndon should not enter the game. He’s really the ideal seventh guy in a bullpen: he serves a very niche purpose, but has the chance to do it incredibly well.

My theory in the aforementioned sinker series is that a normal development isn’t necessary for non-projectable sinker-slider pitchers that are better served with better defenses. This hypothesis will face a great test in 2010 if the Phillies keep David Herndon on their roster all season. I’ll be rooting for him.

Quite obviously, the reasons the Rangers find themselves so highly ranked is because of their strength in this section of our analysis. No organization has re-committed themselves in the last 5-10 years as much as the Rangers, who backed away from nine figure payrolls and found a better marginal expense in player development. The compilation of young talent both at the Major League and minor league levels are unparalleled among the 30 organizations, and I think Texas has put themselves in a position to be a playoff contender for the indefinite future.

To start with the oldest and move backwards, we begin with players like Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton, a pair of players essential to the Rangers hopes in 2010. Kinsler is very interesting, because he’s had such variance between his BABIP and UZR numbers in the last two seasons, and while he arrived at it in very different ways, came out about equally as valuable in both. If we regress both those numbers back to average, Kinsler is still a four-win second baseman that has shown all five skills (for my money, he’s one of the best baserunners in the league). Hamilton’s offensive drop-off is well documented, and for the most part, seemingly discarded by people smarter than I. At the very least, returning to a 3 WAR player shouldn’t be difficult for someone this talented. Nelson Cruz fits into this discussion after his 2009 breakout, and he certainly is who we thought he was: a lot of power, a solid corner glove, and not a lot else.

The next group of young talents are the sophomores and rookies, the best proof to fans in Dallas that this new strategy is paying dividends. They saw it last year with Elvis Andrus, likely a treat to watch everyday with his highlight reel plays in the field and consistent offensive contact. He should be that player for a long time. The two great pitching prospects made their debuts, Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz, with encouraging results. Feliz was dominant in his set-up role, lighting up the radar guns but showing solid command, too. It takes a bit of a sabermetric eye to see the positives in Holland’s debut, the nearly 2 point difference in ERA and xFIP, but Dave Cameron sold it pretty well already. With better luck, big results are in store for the hard-throwing southpaw.

The rest of the young players on the Major League roster must use this season to prove they belong for the long term. Chris Davis doesn’t have a lot of time with Justin Smoak knocking on the door, so he’ll have to start drawing some walks and making contact a little more often. If he’s good, the DH spot will be waiting for him in 2011. Julio Borbon has earned centerfield and leadoff duties, and the hope is he can turn his blazing speed into plus defense in center and plenty of steals. Finally, there’s Tommy Hunter, who must claim his stake in the rotation before it becomes dominated by the likes of Feliz, Holland, and Martin Perez.

A couple names in that paragraph bring us to the top prospects that have yet to make their debuts, but will dazzle soon enough. Smoak is a slick fielder and a switch-hitting power guy, so we’ll forgive Texas fans for confusing him with Mark Teixeira. Keith Law spoke recently about the comp Martin Perez is prone to receive while on Bill Simmons’ podcast, talking about the similarities in stature and stuff between Perez and Johan Santana. High praise, indeed. But little left-handers with plus velocity and three pitches don’t grow on trees, so the list of comparable pitchers is pretty limited.

Texas has a lot of depth in the farm system, too, especially on the pitching side. This seems an apt place to mention my affinity for Robbie Ross, who I think becomes the next five-star Rangers prospect. The team just has a ridiculous amount of pitchers that can throw 94 mph, and just need to learn a little bit of command (Ross already has it, which is why I’m touting him). If the Rangers player development team can teach to control the fastball, then the hitting-friendly environment of Arlington won’t matter very soon.

More than anything, the Rangers impress me because they understand the value of building a farm system. They understand how to maximize the sale of your veteran assets, and they understand the value of reinvesting in the draft. The team has found its footing on the international market again, and should be considered a player for every top prospect in that scene. Some tough lessons have shown them the light — sustained success isn’t found on the free agent market, but in developing stars yourself. The fruits of this newfound labor will be felt in Texas for a long time.

Over a two week stretch earlier this month, the Twins signed three players to extensions, headlined by Joe Mauer’s eight-year deal. Mauer becomes the face of the franchise and the backstop until he can’t do it anymore — he will likely never play for another organization. Even if he doesn’t hit for all the power he did last season going forward, Mauer is talented enough to grind out five win seasons in his sleep. The team also bought out the arbitration years, and gave themselves a cheap option for the first year of free agency, for Nick Blackburn and Denard Span. This is the rare case where I believe Blackburn (the pitcher) is a surer bet than Span (the hitter), but neither deal is ill advised.

More importantly, paired with previous extensions given to Justin Morneau and Scott Baker, these deals mean the Twins payroll is going up with this move into a new stadium. These five players alone are on the hook for about $55 million in 2013, a number that just about represented Minnesota’s payroll in 2003 and 2008. When factoring in the money they’ll owe to Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and others, the Twins payroll is set to see new highs in this decade. Given the skills this organization has concerning player evaluation, a competitive budget could mean big things going forward.

The current regime of Minnesota homegrown players has been such a treat to watch, as this season they will likely lead the Twins to their ninth winning season in 10 years. But they are getting older, and given the aforementioned extensions, many of them will be playing ball elsewhere in a couple years. Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel will be gone after 2011, and they would probably have to give the team a discount to stay with their original organization. Not far behind them is a group that includes the newly acquired J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young and Joe Nathan. It’s certainly one step forward as far as the budget to retain talent goes, but keeping the sheer quantity of players this organization produces would be impossible.

The good news is that Mike Radcliff is still the scouting director in Minnesota, and as a result, you can bet the Twins have players in their system and will have more coming. If there is someone better in the business, I don’t know about him. And to consistently succeed with such a simple M.O. should almost be frustrating to his peers: draft athletes early, power in the middle, and pitchers with command in between. There’s variations of that in each draft, but this is the premise the Twins are routinely constructed around.

With the early drafted athletes, they have Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere. Hicks is probably a year from his breakout (Fort Myers is utter hell for young hitters), but he is one of the handful of players in the minor leagues I could envision being a #1 overall prospect. Revere is more of a B-prospect for me, and seems a weird fit in an organization that really likes Span. On an extreme side of that predicament is Wilson Ramos, a really solid young catcher that will be stuck as a back-up unless he gets traded away.

The athletes go on to include foreign players that show the reaches this scouting department is ready to go. Max Kepler was given the largest bonus ever for a European player (800K), and while very raw, has a ton of potential. Miguel Sano is the best player the team has ever signed on the international market, and scouts couldn’t be higher. Then there’s Angel Morales, a product of the draft, but a symbol of Radcliff’s fondness for Puerto Rican players.

When the team does veer away from the command-control pitchers, they go after projection. The hope is that 2009 first-rounder Kyle Gibson has both, because his body certainly has room to fill out, but he also has great command of his fastball on his best days. His health will determine how fast he moves, but Gibson was a risk that could really pay off for the Twins. The team also really likes David Bromberg, who also features an intimidating frame but a command-specialist arsenal. He moves up to Double-A this season, and could take over the Twins fifth starter spot as early as mid-2011.

There’s depth, but we don’t have to go into every player today. Just know that the Twins have a scouting philosophy that is tried and true, and a budget on the rise. After all the recent extensions, the next person Bill Smith should be contacting for a new contract is Mike Radcliff, who might just be the man responsible for all the success this organization has had in the last decade.

Maybe in the perfect world for a Mariners fan, Adam Jones joins Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro in the outfield, Chris Tillman shares the top of the prospect list with Dustin Ackley. Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera is still around. But as much as these fans wish it didn’t, the Bill Bavasi era did happen, and numerous young talents are in other organizations because of it. But, things are getting pretty good in Seattle, and I won’t be the first person to tell you why: Jack Zduriencik and friends.

I’m not going to tell you that Zduriencik is the best General Manager in baseball. That, I think, would be impossible to achieve without years of experience in the position. However, he is undeniably one of the game’s great talent evaluators, and he’s surrounding himself with informed opinions from intelligent people. The foundation is built for future success, both because of the personnel in the front office and the personnel on the field. This begins, like it has with every team in this series, with the stars: in Seattle, that’s Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez.

When Ichiro starts to significantly decline will always be at the heart of the Mariners future, as it’s hard to imagine ownership ever letting him don another uniform. In a perfect world, he has five more seasons with 200 hits and plus defense in him, as his 4-5 WAR contributions are essential to future success. With Felix, the hope is merely that he peaks when the average player does, as he is under team control through his age 28 season. If his 2009 is a level that can be sustained, the Mariners will be able to boast the best pitcher in the game, a distinction that certainly can’t hurt.

Joining Felix in Seattle until October 2014 will be Franklin Gutierrez, signed to an extension in January that promises a placement on Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. I can’t believe Gutierrez is a +25 fielder, obviously, but if he’s +15 and makes minimal strides with the bat, he can be a 4.5 WAR player. And there’s Chone Figgins, tied down to the same timetable as Felix and Franklin, and seemingly just as unique as the previous three players. The hope is that Figgins understands his value was never as strong as it was last year, when he worked 100 walks. If he’s that patient again, then Figgins tenure in Seattle will go just fine.

This is the Major League core, and while it’s not typical, the players give Jack Z a very nice start for the next five seasons. Adam Moore will probably be there for all of them behind the plate, and you know how I feel about him. Some people took exception to my Moore projection, but I truly believe it was complimentary — Moore’s floor is very high. The pitcher version of this would be Ryan Rowland-Smith, who will have his modest success in Seattle as long as Safeco Field is standing. The bad news in Seattle is that the pitching really thins out after The Hyphen; there’s quite a bit of young relievers around Brandon League, but Zduriencik will have to be creative in building a rotation for the future.

If the pitching must come from outside the organization, the Mariners must keep their offense cheap outside of Ichiro and Figgins. They’ll get some help in this regard in 2011, when Michael Saunders should effectively replace Ken Griffey Jr., and Dustin Ackley should take over for Jose Lopez. The latter is another key to the future, as he must take to second base fairly quickly. While defense and power are still question marks for Ackley, his ability to make solid contact is an unbelievable skill. He’s a leadoff hitter the same as Ichiro and Figgins, which means the Don Wakamatsu will have rooms for lots of creativity in filling out his lineup card. Saunders, meanwhile, should play a good left field in Safeco (surprise, surprise) and will bring a touch of power to a lineup that lacks it.

There’s no doubt that by acquiring Cliff Lee, the Mariners dipped into what was already a shallow farm system. But Jack surely did so with the understanding that his team is going to rebuild this farm system quickly. They started last year, unafraid of the bonus demands of Nick Franklin and Steve Baron after spending big money on Ackley. Tom McNamara and his staff in the scouting department are very good at what they do, and I have total faith this team will be churning out young players in a few years. Until then, Jack Zduriencik must continue to be creative while building around the most unique core in Major League Baseball.