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The First Cups of Coffee

Nine players made their 2010 debut yesterday — seven appearing in the big leagues for the first time — on the first day of roster expansion. By WPA standards, four positively contributed to their team, and five negatively contributed in their debuts. Here is my take on the positive contributors; I will write up the negative contributors in the afternoon today.

Brandon Allen, 1B/LF, Age 24, Arizona Diamondbacks.

Debut: +.229 WPA. The only of today’s eight players to have a previous big league career, Allen made his 2010 debut in left field. He had a bloop single to left in the third, and then a bloop fly-out to left in the fifth. In the seventh inning, Allen pulled a hanging slider to right field 419 feet for a grand slam. In the field, Allen made a nice catch against the fence in the fourth, one of four put-outs on the day.

2010 Minor League Season: .261/.405/.528 (.407 wOBA) in 469 PA at Triple-A.

Thoughts on Future: I have to say, more impressive than the grand slam yesterday was Allen’s catch of a slicing Chase Headley fly ball. This makes it all the more likely his 2011 season will be in the Major Leagues, as he’s going to offer the Diamondbacks solid enough play at first base or in left field. At the plate, he’s more than ready. Allen posted a 17.7 BB% this year, which more than makes up for his problems with contact. You can expect both his ISO and BB% to come down next year, but both should still be above league average. Allen is going to have a nice, long big league career; the White Sox must be kicking themselves for trading away Paul Konerko’s successor at first base.

Darren Ford, CF, Age 24, San Francisco Giants.

Debut: +.214 WPA. Pinch ran for Mike Fontenot at first base in the 8th. Reached second on Tim Lincecum sacrifice. Bolted for third base when an Ubaldo Jimenez pitch hit the dirt, drawing a late throw from Miguel Olivo that went to left field. Ford scored the winning run on the play.

2010 Minor League Season: .251/.315/.365 (.313 wOBA) in 516 PA at Double-A. 37-52 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: With a fairly hot Rockies team three games back, and a great pitcher’s duel brewing between Jimenez and Lincecum, Ford played the role of Dave Roberts in a huge moment. Despite the dissimilarities in their games, Roberts’s late-starting big league career, including 5 seasons with more than 400 plate appearances, would be a decent-enough outcome for Ford. Ford is already an all-world defender in center field, certainly a good baserunner, but his offense lags behind. Ford cut his strikeout rate to a career low this year, but it was met with a career-low walk rate, which had previously been his lone strength as a hitter. Most likely, he’s a fifth outfielder, but given his defensive abilities, his offense doesn’t need to be quite as good as most prospects.

Danny Espinosa, SS/2B, Age 23, Washington Nationals.

Debut: +.004 WPA. Espinosa was credited for a double in his first big league plate appearance, but it was mostly because the hometown official scorer didn’t want to give Donnie Murphy an error. To his credit, Espinosa turned a one-base error into a two-base error with good speed. Espinosa grounded out to second in the 8th, and didn’t record a play in the field.

2010 Minor League Season: .268/.337/.464 over two levels. Hit .259/.332/.461 (.356 wOBA) in 434 PA at Double-A, hit .295/.349/.463 (.345 wOBA) in 108 PA at Triple-A. 25-36 SB/ATT.

Thoughts on Future: I really like Danny Espinosa, because he’s the rare prospect that could stick at shortstop and post good patience and power numbers. But then again, it sure seems like the Nationals are going to stick him at second base, and his patience wasn’t good (7.5 BB%) this season. Both of these alter his prospect rating, and definitely knock him down a notch. Espinosa is also a player that’s going to have to win over an old-school manager, as it’s hard to forecast him ever hitting above .275 with strikeout rates in the mid-twenties.

Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Age 22, Milwaukee Brewers.

Debut: +.001 WPA. One inning, three batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, 7 for strikes. Was 95-98 mph with 7 fastballs, and threw 4 curveballs at 78-79 mph. Allowed groundball single to Miguel Cairo, induced double play grounder from Paul Janish, and groundball out from Ryan Hanigan.

2010 Minor League Season: 2.23 ERA in 24 appearances spread between the Midwest (5 G), Florida State (8 G) and Southern (11 G) Leagues. Ratios between three levels: 5.0 H/9, 0.00 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 12.0 K/9.

Thoughts on Future: We know that his next suspension will be the end of his professional baseball career, so that is noteworthy. With that said, Jeffress was by all accounts a good citizen during his 2010 season, and he made real strides on the diamond. Once a pure arm strength guy, Jeffress flashed a really good curveball yesterday that drew hilariously weak contact from Janish and Hanigan. With that pitch reaching true plus status, and his over-the-top arm angle still producing big velocity, Jeffress profiles as a Major League closer. His blend of strikeouts and groundballs should lead to some real success in that role.

This afternoon: Yonder Alonso, Lucas Duda, Brian Bogusevic, Desmond Jennings, Freddie Freeman.


Myth and Legend, Meet Cincinnati

Last Saturday, Peter Gammons sent out an eye-opening tweet, about the newest Cincinnati Red, Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman:

One of the best scouts texted from Louisville that Chapman was 98-105 w/ 91 mph slider and “best velo I’ve ever seen” Friday night. Hi, Cinci

When I woke up Saturday morning and read it, I assumed Gammons had hit “5” instead of “1” or “2”, as his tweets are routinely rife with typos. But then, as J.J. Cooper wrote in a fun piece at Baseball America, the story caught on. Apparently Ed Price had beat Gammons to the punch with the 105 mph radar gun reading — which, to be fair, could have come from the same scout — and Cooper reported Baseball America heard a 104 mph reading from a different scout in attendance. The specific number, it doesn’t really matter (it’s not, I would guess, 105). However, we will learn where his velocity tops out at soon, as Chapman has been called up to join the Reds (and, presumably, their postseason roster) on the eve of September. We will all be able to see where his pitches register on the Pitch F/X scale, and soon, we’ll know if he is indeed the hardest thrower in (recent) Major League history.

As fun a narrative as the mythical radar gun reading is, lest we forget that actual important baseball is on the horizon. The Reds’ postseason odds have never been higher than they are today; as Chapman makes his way from Louisville to Cincy, BP has Cincy’s playoff odds at 95.52%. This is nice and consistent with the delicate developmental approach the Reds have taken with their prized lefty: while he was converted to relief on June 23, the team waited until the last possible day to release Chapman to the wolves. Now, barring a team-wide collapse, Chapman will be eased into competitive big league baseball up until October. For the Reds to be able to develop Chapman at their own pace, and create such a gap between themselves and the Cardinals is exactly how Walt Jocketty would have written it.

We’ll see how Dusty Baker reacts to his newest addition, but it’s clear he doesn’t have the same bias against young pitchers that he does with young hitters. While it will take some time for Chapman to up-end Arthur Rhodes as the favored lefty in the bullpen, I do think it’s possible that by October, Baker will have warmed to Chapman as his preferred platoon set-up man (opposite Nick Masset) — especially if Chapman continues and builds upon his recent success.

It’s been 23 days and eight relief appearances since Chapman last gave up a run. In fact, since July 4, Chapman has allowed just three earned runs in 23.1 innings. In this stretch, he’s allowed just 11 hits and 10 walks while striking out 38 batters. And, we’ve seen further improvement recently with Chapman’s control: just four walks in his last 18.2 innings. After a good 13-start debut in the rotation (4.11 ERA, 10.42 K/9, 5.48 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9), Chapman thrived in the bullpen, and now leaves behind the Louisville Bats with a 3.39 FIP to show for his five months of minor league work.

From a stuff angle, obviously the fastball is Chapman’s first weapon of choice. To quote the already linked BA article, “That kind of velocity almost breaks the 20-80 scouting scale.” When paired with his newfound control, the pitch immediately enters the discussion of the Majors’ best fastball. It is, without question, the craziest arm speed I’ve ever seen. He combines it with a slider, which as Gammons noted, sits in the low 90s, and can flash plus-plus in relief. However, the pitch can betray him at times. In Spring Training, I liked his change-up weapon to right-handed hitters better than the slider — though ultimately the pitch bears more importance in his future as a starter than his September and October as a reliever. For two months, it will be all about the fastball.

In late March, amidst the buzz of his Spring Training success, we asked you to project the 2010 performance of Aroldis Chapman. We received 504 entries, and as a reminder, here were the FIP components of your projection: 116.55 innings, 8.36 K/9, 3.88 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9. All this adding up to a FIP in the 4.36 region. But much has changed since then, and now we know his 2010 will be about 20-30 innings split between the regular season and playoffs. Now that you know about Chapman, as a reliever, I’d love to hear some revised predictions in the comments.


Prospects Chat – 8/30/10


Belt Closer to the Bay

It has been a good year to be a first baseman in the San Francisco Giants organization. Aubrey Huff has been one of the season’s great surprises, having his best season since he was 26 years old, a year after the worst season of his career. Huff has expressed interest in returning to San Francisco next season, and while Brian Sabean said that he has “earned consideration” for an extension, no talks have been planned. Throwing a wrench into those negotiations is surely the unbelievable season that Brandon Belt has had in the minor leagues. Promoted to Triple-A before yesterday’s games, Belt tallied a home run, two walks, a steal and three runs in his first game for the Fresno Grizzlies. Now having played across three levels, Belt is hitting .363/.464/.628 (with a .450+ wOBA) in 123 games.

Belt was an above-slot signee after being drafted in the fifth round of the 2009 draft out of the University of Texas. After transferring to the Longhorns as one of the junior college’s best players, Belt disappointed a bit in two seasons with the Longhorns, hitting .324/.405/.514 for his career. It’s a good line, but for a first baseman with aluminum bats, and considering the hype that surrounded his transfer, expectations had been higher. But credit the Giants scouting team for not judging Belt by his number output, and instead seeing a guy they could develop into an asset. After all, Belt had struck out just 72 times in 469 Division I at-bats (15.4 K%); only his power numbers disappointed.

The Giants saw something in his approach that could be changed, and for that, I’ll turn to a piece Andy Baggarly wrote for Baseball America [side note: buy a subscription!]:

When the Giants first saw Belt in instructional league last fall, he had a closed stance that served him well as a contact hitter but left him prone to hard stuff inside…”All we did was square him up and give him some direction back toward the middle,” [farm director Fred] Stanley said. “Just kind of free him up so his hips and hands can work . . . and my goodness.”

Indeed. After starting his season 0-for-8 in two games, Belt would post just nine more 0-fers in 75 games in the California League. He would put together an 18-game hit streak in April and a 16-game streak in June, flashing more power as time went on. Even his baserunning improved — after going just 11-for-18 stealing bases the first two months, Belt stole seven straight bases successfully before earning a promotion to Double-A. Belt’s Cal League career ended with a .383/.492/.628 batting line (.486 wOBA)in one of the leagues tougher stadiums in which to hit- at an age just under the league average. The team moved him up to Richmond in the Eastern League, where — according again to Fred Stanley in Baggarly’s piece — “it’s taken some of our batting hitting prospects a few months to get used to that league.”

It took Belt one game. In his Flying Squirrels debut, Belt went 0-for-3 against former first-round pick Brooks Brown. He followed that up with a 12-game hitting steak that included five home runs and six multi-hit games. With above-average speed and a strong left arm (he was once considered a stronger prospect on a mound), I was calling for an outfield trial as early as June. On July 29, the Giants responded, giving Belt a start in left field for the first time all season. In his final 23 games with Richmond, Belt would take the outfield seven times. While his defense at first base is considered an asset, adding some versatility can’t be considered a bad thing — and given the AAA Fresno Grizzlies have had Brett Pill at first base all season, Belt sure enough had his first start yesterday in left field.

According to Baggarly, “the Giants expect to call him up in September.” I’m guessing the promotion to Fresno has something to do with the fact that the Grizzlies are in a Pacific Coast League playoff hunt, while Richmond is near the bottom of the Eastern League standings. Many teams like their prospects to get some minor league postseason experience before reaching the big leagues, and I think it’s likelier we’ll see Belt in San Francisco after the Fresno season ends, rather then when the rosters expand on September 1. I think he could help the Giants against right-handed pitchers; he doesn’t have a bad line against left-handers this year, but in High-A he couldn’t hit them for power (.097 ISO), and in Double-A, his BB-K ratio was 2-12 in 53 plate appearances. He has shown some improvements this year, and I’m not calling him a future platoon player, just not a 22-year-old that should be getting development time against big league lefties in a Wild Card race.

We’ll get into Belt’s WAR potential another day, but suffice it to say, we should begin taking this breakout seriously. Belt now has 536 plate appearances with a solid strikeout rate, a great walk rate, and improving power. As Dave Cameron reminded us around the trade deadline, “In prospect land, things can change a lot in a short period of time.” This is magnified when a team combines good scouting with good developing; it’s magnified even gretaer when a player buys into instruction. Brandon Belt isn’t a future star, but he’s a reason for the Giants to re-consider paying Aubrey Huff for his big season.


2010 Draft Review: NL East

The series ends here.

Links: ALC | NLC | ALW | NLW | ALE | NLE |

ATLANTA BRAVES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Matt Lipka, Texas HS, ss, 35th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6 college, 2 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 2/8.

Thoughts: The Braves got everyone inked and in uniform quickly, so rather than list the notable performances so far, I figured it would be easier to make this section longer, and integrate the performances in the post. Drafting without a first round pick this year, the Braves did have a supplemental first and an extra second round pick. The team chose a signable player at every turn, and was among the draft’s smallest spenders in all of MLB. It’s all pretty unexciting stuff, but these are the Braves, and you just figure their scouting department has to know something that we don’t. They always seem to.

This year, it appears the onus was getting hitters in the system that make consistent contact with the baseball. To wit, first round pick has a 11.3 K% in the complex league (.378 wOBA), Todd Cunningham is at 12.5% in the Sally League (.346 wOBA), and Andrelton Simmons at 6.2% in the Appy League (.301 wOBA). This trend continues on, and it’s consistent through all the left-side infielders this team drafted in the top ten rounds. The Braves also drafted small school pitcher Dave Filak, who has a 2.97 FIP in 22 Appy League innings. Atlanta’s draft isn’t the most diverse in talent sets, but they don’t seem worried about it. This seems like a team simply hoping that out of quantity comes quality.

FLORIDA MARLINS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Christian Yelich, California HS, 1B, 23rd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7/3.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 6/4.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s earliest pick with regular playing time so far has been fifth-round pick Robert Morey. The Virginia alum has made nine starts in the South Atlantic League, running a 3.49 FIP through 31 innings. The team isn’t really getting strikeouts or command from Rett Varner, but the guy has a 1.54 ERA because he’s getting a lot of groundballs. You have to go all the way to the tenth round to find a hitter with serious playing time, and it’s Missouri’s Aaron Senne. In 48 games in the NYP League, Senne is hitting .302/.386/.391.

Thoughts: The Marlins weren’t big spenders, but that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. They were sure to sign first round pick Christian Yelich, bought third rounder J.T. Realmuto from an Oklahoma State commitment, and made sure Mark Canha didn’t head back to California. Yelich is obviously the one to watch, but don’t buy his listed position of outfield. He has one of the worst arms I’ve ever seen from a touted prospect, and he’ll be at first base unless they completely re-teach him to throw. He’s going to hit, though. The added pitching should move quickly, as Rob Rasmussen and Robert Morey were among Division I’s most polished. The Marlins will get some big league help from this draft, but I don’t think they have added a star.

NEW YORK METS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Matt Harvey, UNC, rhp, 7th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The one sticking to me is Matt den Dekker, a senior sign from Florida who is 11 games into full season ball, and hitting .390/.468/.512 during that time. If he’s not the story, fourth-round pick Cory Vaughn is, hitting .308/.399/.556 in the New York-Penn League. Vaughn’s power never came as scouts thought in college, but it certainly is showing itself in short-season ball. As Carson Cistulli points out, however, his defense might not be so good. The highest of the hitters drafted, Blake Forsythe, is playing the worst, hitting .226/.298/.321 between the complex and NYP leagues.

Thoughts: If you listed the Mets picks in order of who received the largest bonuses, their top two guys (Harvey and Forsythe) would top the list, followed by 24th rounder Erik Goeddel, fourth-round pick Cory Vaughn, and sixth-round pick Greg Peavy. Goeddel obviously sticks out, and it will be interesting if the Mets are content to use him as a reliever going forward. But any way you slice it, the team went college-heavy here, going with big Division I players with the first 6 picks. There is some upside to be found there, though, so I don’t hate this draft for the Mets. But that really speaks to my optimism about Vaughn, Goeddel and den Dekker.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jesse Biddle, Philly HS, lhp, 27th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Biddle has been a nice story in his debut in the Gulf Coast League. Despite a nasty outing in his last start, the lefty still has a 2.51 FIP in 33.1 innings. His 41-to-9 K/BB ratio is really encouraging. Or, at least it’s better than talking about the NYP performances of the team’s college picks: Percy Garner (two bad starts), Cameron Rupp (.326 wOBA) and Bryan Morgado (2.09 WHIP) have all been not-so-good.

Thoughts: Biddle was the only Phillies draft pick to make more than $500,000, so as a result, he’s the key to this draft. The team did go to 300K on four players, three of which came after the 20th round: Kevin Walter, Jonathan Musser, and Brian Pointer were all bought out of college commitments. The college picks were not my favorite, in the slightest, but Biddle really does have the potential to put this class on his back. Philadelphia has done a great job scouting high school pitchers in recent years, and it looks like the trend continued this year.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Bryce Harper, Nevada JC, RF/C, 1st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Rick Hague had a miserable last season at Rice this year, but moving to pro ball and wood bats have been pretty good for him. Playing mostly in the full season South Atlantic League, Hague is hitting .298/.371/.426 through 105 plate appearances. This is better than the performance of the short-season college guys: Kevin Keyes (.210/.356/.284), Cole Leonida (.143/.226/.179) and Jason Martinson (.236/.336/.328).

Thoughts: I suppose it’s fitting to end this series here, on Harper. It’s kind of intuitive that the team that drafts the best player should have the highest rated draft, but it’s not always the case: oftentimes, paying up for the most expensive player gives teams an excuse to not take any more chances. This was not so with the Nationals. This team also broke slot to sign three pitchers that all seem excellent: Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray. Maybe the team didn’t add any offense besides Harper in this draft (though if Hague hits, he was once considered first-round caliber), but with Harper, I’m not sure you need to. Finding the pitching balance to match their offensive addition is really what makes this draft stand out.

Favorite NL East Draft: Washington. Least Favorite: Florida.


2010 Draft Review: AL East

The series continues.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Manny Machado, Florida HS, ss, 3rd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 4 college, 4 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Not much of the draft class has started playing, but the team’s Aberdeen affiliate (in the New York-Penn League) has two names to which you should pay attention. Fourth-round pick Trent Mummey has been a regular since being drafted, and will reach about 300 professional plate appearances by the time the summer ends. For now, he has posted a .349 wOBA, with more ability shown in plate discipline than power potential. The team recently added a solid reliever in Clayton Schrader, the Orioles 10th round pick, who received an above-slot bonus to deter him from going to Oklahoma. Schrader has pitched five scoreless innings for the IronBirds, striking out 6.

Thoughts: Without a second-round pick this season, the Orioles were able to not worry about bonus demands from their third overall pick, Manny Machado. Despite his Twitter jokings with Bryce Harper, it was clear Machado would always sign, and this draft class would always be defined by his play. The team, however, does have six other players that earned more than a quarter-million bonus, including their eighth, ninth and, tenth-round picks. I even really like Matt Bywater, the seventh-round lefty from Pepperdine that signed for pretty cheap. This draft doesn’t have a sure thing, maybe with the exception of Mummey, but it is loaded with potential.

BOSTON RED SOX
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Anthony Ranaudo, LSU, rhp, 39th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6/4.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s top two picks, Kolbrin Vitek and Bryce Brentz, have been regulars in the Lowell Spinners lineup for awhile. Vitek has been much better, posting a .379 wOBA while overcoming a 29.5 K%. Brentz hasn’t been able to overcome his bad contact skills, hitting .187/.252/.320 for Lowell. The only other draftee with significant playing time so far is fifth-round Puerto Rican outfielder Henry Ramos, playing in the Gulf Coast League. Ramos has thrived in Fort Myers, hitting .319/.373/.471 in his first stateside campaign.

Thoughts: This wasn’t the most expensive draft of any team, but it was probably the deepest: six players signed for more than $750,000, which includes two college hitters (Vitek and Brentz), two college pitchers, and two high school hitters. Ranaudo demanded the most money, and he earned it with a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League. I really like sixth-round pick Kendrick Perkins, and seventh rounder Chris Hernandez was a favorite of the boys behind CollegeSplits.com. This was a team aware of high school pitchers who have historically been the least valuable commodity on draft day, and stockpiled every other type of asset. It should pay huge dividends for the farm system.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Mason Williams, Florida HS, of, 145th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 3/7.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Much of this class is just starting to get their feet wet in pro ball, but surprise first rounder Cito Culver has been a regular in complex league play. Culver has held his own, hitting .269/.320/.363, and since July 22, has hit safely in 15 out of 19 games. Like any teenage shortstops, he’s been prone to mistakes (13 errors in 41 games) and offspeed stuff (25.6 K%), but there has been nothing about which to worry.

Thoughts: While the Red Sox clearly used their huge resources to put together the foundation of a great farm system in this year’s draft, the Yankees spendings were more middle-of-the-pack. Mason Williams was the only player the Yankees eclipsed seven figures on, and he’s a guy that doesn’t profile to hit for power. I like fifth-round pick Tommy Kahnle, but the crux of this draft are five high school players that the team spent big on. If two of them become trade-able commodities, then this draft has to be considered a success.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Josh Sale, Washington HS, of, 17th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 4 college, 5 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Both of Tampa’s short-season affiliates have had some interesting contributions. The complex league team has been assigned both first-round pick Justin O’Conner and third-round pick Ryan Brett, and their performances have been the opposite of what you might think. Brett has been amazing in 19 games, hitting .338/.410/.456 (.420 wOBA), with “just” four errors. O’Conner has struggled in 169 PA, hitting .215/.310/.354, struggling mostly with his contact rate. In the New York-Penn League, the Hudson Valley affiliate has the team’s second-round picks: Jake Thompson and Derek Dietrich. Thompson’s impeccable command has led to a 2.26 FIP through 35 innings, though his 6.94 K/9 leaves something to be desired. Dietrich isn’t showing the same power he did in college, and his 4.8 BB% in 33 games isn’t good, but he’s still managed a .288/.340/.432 line.

Thoughts: I really like this draft, and it shows you don’t have to break the bank to impress. Sale and O’Conner are really good value for where they were drafted in the first round, and I really believe in Sale’s bat. The team spent equally on its two college arms, one a safe innings-eater (Thompson) and one a volatile hard thrower (Jesse Hahn). They took some chances later in the draft, and have the farm system to afford taking chances on high school hitters. The balance probably leans a little too far for my liking, but I still think the Rays did well.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Deck McGuire, Georgia Tech, rhp, 11th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 3 college, 6 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Blue Jays have been cautious with their two supplemental first round high school arms, Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are pitching in the complex league. While both are “starting” games there, they are averaging just 2.45 innings per start. Both have done well, but the star is Sanchez, who has a fantastic groundball rate and a 13.5 K/9. Kellen Sweeney, the team’s second-round pick out of Erik Manning’s town of Cedar Rapids, has had an encouraging start with the same team. In just 36 plate appearances, Ryan’s little brother has walked 10 times.

Thoughts: I love this draft. It appears to be pitcher heavy because the first four picks were all hurlers, but the team’s second-highest bonus getter was fifth-round pick Dickie Joe Thon. Toronto gave Thon $1.5 million to not attend Rice, and he becomes a perfect balance to the “safe” Deck McGuire pick. The team invested heavily in pitching, no doubt, and I really like what Aaron Sanchez has showed so far. But there is hitting to be found here, like Sweeney, Christopher Hawkins, and the two shortstops given above-slot money in the middle rounds. Toronto has worked hard in the last year, both on the international and domestic fronts, at rebuilding their farm system, and I think it will start paying dividends soon.

Favorite AL East Draft: Boston. Honorable Mention: Toronto. Least Favorite: New York.


2010 Draft Review: NL West

The series continues.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Ty Linton, North Carolina HS, of, 421st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s two highest drafted signees, second rounder J.R. Bradley and third rounder Robby Rowland, have really struggled in the Pioneer League. Bradley’s ERA (7.46) is worse than Rowland’s (6.30), but neither has a single solid peripheral statistic … Fourth round reliever Kevin Munson has started his career in the Midwest League successfully, allowing just two runs in 14 innings with South Bend, striking out 13.

Thoughts: While some have floated out the notion that Arizona drafted Barret Loux knowing that they’d get the seventh pick in 2011, it’s simply not true. Arizona liked Loux in that spot, but his medicals couldn’t justify a selection. Luckily, the team built in some insurance in the 14th round, drafting two-way star Ty Linton. Between paying him over one million, and paying eighth-round pick Tyler Green 750K, the team does take home some early round talent out of this draft. The majority of their risks came with high upside pitchers, so replacing Loux is a real possibility.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Kyle Parker, Clemson, of, 26th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Chad Bettis was never consistent at Texas Tech, but he’s been consistently brilliant for the Rockies NWL affiliate. In 10 appearances, Bettis has a 1.12 ERA, 1.86 BB/9 and 0.00 HR/9. He’s getting groundballs at a 2.2-to-one clip, and looks like a brilliant gamble … In one-third the time, fifth-round pick Josh Slaats has been just as good. In 13.2 innings, the big bodied product of hawaii has struck out 23 and walked just 2 … It’s noteworthy that 15th round bonus baby Will Swanner made his professional debut in the Pioneer League yesterday, going 2-for-5 while playing DH.

Thoughts: The Rockies deal with top pick Kyle Parker will allow him to play his senior season at quarterback for the Tigers this fall, and then the team hopes his itch for the gridiron is satisfied. It should be the case, and you’d think that focusing only on baseball next season will allow his abilities to shine through more than ever. Supplemental round pick Peter Tago was a favorite of Marc Hulet, and it’s easy to understand why: maybe no one in this draft throws easier. I think they’ll definitely find a regular contributor out of Tago, Bettis or Slaats. I also like the gamble on Swanner, a catcher they bought away from Pepperdine. This is a nice and diverse haul for the Rockies.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Zach Lee, Texas HS, rhp, 28th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Of the four first five rounders that have started playing, the two high school guys are in the complex league, the two college hitters in the Pioneer League. High school pitcher Ralston Cash has done well for himself, with a 3.68 ERA over seven starts, and enough movement on his pitches to post a good groundball rate (1.82 G/F) and he hasn’t allowed a home run. He’s joined on the team by James Baldwin (son of the ex-Major Leaguer), who strikes out constantly, but has put up an athletic .272/.321/.367 … Over in the Pioneer League, Jake Lemmerman has been brilliant. The Duke shortstop and fifth-round pick is hitting .355/.424/.560 in the hitting environment, with 28 extra-base hits and 22 walks in 200 at-bats! Third rounder Leon Landry is doing his best to keep pace, hitting .356/.397/.529 while he learns to translate his great speed into something useful on the baseball field.

Thoughts: Herein you will find my mea culpa. I teased Dodgers fans quite a bit in June, as it certainly appeared the team drafted Zach Lee without an intention to sign him. I thought maybe they’d get sixth-round pick Kevin Gausman for above slot, but the $5 million it’d take for Lee? No way. I WAS WRONG. Kudos to the Dodgers for striking a unique agreement, using Lee’s status as a football as an excuse to spread the money over five years. The Dodgers even went above slot twice more, on 11th rounder Joc Pederson and 26th rounder Scott Schebler. But make no mistake, this draft is all about Lee. And, it’s a good thing, because Lee was probably the fourth or fifth best player in the class. A steal at any price.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: John Barbato, Miami HS, rhp, 184th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6 college, 2 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Highest drafted signee Jedd Gyorko has enjoyed a really nice start to his career, with 52 games spread evenly between the Northwest and Midwest leagues. He’s hitting a combined .335/.396/.495, with a wOBA north of .400. On the opposite train was fifth-round pick Rico Noel, who began with some terrible Midwest League struggles before being demoted to the Northwest League, where he’s currently hitting .297/.453/.365.

Thoughts: It’s pretty hard to not sign your first round pick, especially when it’s in the top ten, and still have a good draft. I think this haul can work out okay for the Padres, but it won’t take the sting out of losing Whitson. His father said yesterday that Karsten’s dream has been to play college baseball, and this really makes you question the scouting done by the Padres: judging the signability of potential draftees is one of a scout’s largest jobs. But moving away from that, the team did build themselves some insurance with sixth-round pick John Barbato. While some certainly preferred unsigned seventh rounder A.J. Vanegas to Barbato, the Padres had to land one of the two. This draft needs Gyorko to become a regular, and either Barbato or Zach Cates to contribute on the mound. It could happen, but it wouldn’t excuse dropping the ball with Whitson.

SAN FRANCISCO
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Gary Brown, Cal State Fullerton, of, 24th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7 college, 1 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It’s a tiny sample of a 21-year-old pitcher beating on high school kids, but fifth-round pick Richard Hembree has struck out 15 of the 28 batters he’s faced in the complex league. He’s rocking a negative FIP! Four of the team’s first 10 picks can be found on the NWL Salem-Keizer Volcanoes: Carter Jurica, Seth Rosin, Chris Lofton and Dan Burkhart. The latter is the team’s newest arrival, but he’s been excellent since moving up from the complex league. Jurica, the highest draft pick of the four, has been the worst (.291 wOBA).

Thoughts: This is pretty unexciting stuff. Gary Brown was one of the first round’s most volatile players, and while a lot of the numbers guys don’t like him because he never walks, you can’t write him off just for that. He’s just a guy whose value will be tied closely to his BABIP and the consistency of his defense. If he succeeds in those categories, he can still be a viable big leaguer. But after Brown, what is there? The team paid up a bit for Virginia outfielder Jarret Parker, another risky college outfielder, and sophomore-eligible lefty Mike Kickham. The other picks were all inexpensive, and typically low-upside college hitters. There is no star potential in this draft; just a couple average-ish outfielders and a reliever (Hembree?) here or there.

Favorite NL West Draft: Colorado Rockies. Least Favorite: San Francisco.


2010 Draft Review: AL West

The series continues.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Kaleb Cowart, Georgia HS, 18th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 3 college, 6 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Here’s what happens when you start your draft with five high school picks: you have a talented, but underperforming, team in the complex league. This is certainly no exception with the Angels given the struggles of Chevez Clarke (.325 wOBA), Taylor Lindsey (.299 wOBA), Wendell Soto (.325 wOBA) and Ryan Bolden (.248 wOBA) in their professional debuts … On the good side is second-round pick Daniel Tillman, who is closing for the man that drafted him, Tom Kotchman. Tillman has been dominant in the role, striking out 32 of the 82 batters he’s faced, while allowing just 20 to reach base.

Thoughts: The Angels farm system was pretty good before June, but with five picks in the first 40, this draft offered the opportunity to completely restock the shelves. Los Angeles took a really interesting approach to their multitude of picks: spending $6.2 million on five high school players. The team is clearly willing to take a couple busts in the name of adding a couple star players. While I like the picks to have a more diverse pedigree, it’s certainly a defensible approach. Cowart is certainly one capable of being a star, and after the first round, the team did go with some college pitchers with a little higher floor.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Michael Choice, UT Arlington, of, 10th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Michael Choice is just 11 games into his first stint, in the Northwest League, and he’s been exactly the player he was in college: 17 strikeouts, 8 extra-base hits, 6 walks in 53 plate appearances. Choice is a Three True Outcome player through and through.

Thoughts: I really liked the A’s first two picks this year, and then after, I couldn’t find a lot to get excited about. Choice is athletic, powerful, but also has an understanding for the strike zone. If the team can cut his strikeouts down even a little — he’ll always be a high-K guy — he could absolutely take off. In the second round, the team drafted and signed Florida prep infielder Yordy Cabrera. He’s older than most high school picks at age 19, but his tools are first round caliber. After that, the team spent more than $150,000 on just three players, all high school picks that weren’t considered elite talents. One of them might ultimately be successful, but even that’s optimistic. After Choice and Cabrera, the draft is littered with potential relievers and bench players.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Marcus Littlewood, Utah HS, ss, 67th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The highest pick with regular playing time so far is fifth-rounder Stephen Pryor, who has 16 relief appearances under his belt between the Northwest and Midwest Leagues. Pryor has been excellent, striking out 37 batters over 24.2 innings. He should move quickly next season … Mickey Wiswall has split his season in the same way as Pryor, and been just as effective through almost 110 plate appearances: .297/.339/.604.

Thoughts: While James Paxton has yet to sign, the Mariners spent more than $200,000 on just three players this season, and didn’t eclipse the $1 million threshold on anyone, which is principally because the team didn’t draft until 43rd overall, and drafted a player there (Taijuan Walker) without a college commitment. In the next round, the team drafted Marcus Littlewood — who some had talked about as a first-round pick — and bought him away from his college commitment. Missing third-round pick Ryne Stanek is a bummer, but mitigated by the fact that 16th rounder Jordan Shipers took $800,000 to sign. Assuming Paxton does sign, this team will likely end up with four solid talents for less than $3.5 million. They got good value, but they don’t have one of the league’s great talent hauls.

TEXAS RANGERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jake Skole, Georgia HS, of, 15th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 4/6.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team has been pretty aggressive with Skole, sending the 18-year-old to the college-heavy Northwest League. But he’s held his own there, posting a .322 wOBA, but showing a nice 10.1 BB%. … It hasn’t gone as well at that level for Canadian Kellin Deglan, who has a .470 OPS in 10 NWL games. I don’t know why he was promoted from the complex league, where he hit just .286/.355/.357 in 10 games. … Ex-UConn third baseman Mike Olt is a little better fit for the NWL, and it shows: he has a .400 wOBA through 238 plate appearances.

Thoughts: Like the Angels, Texas was busy early in the draft, with four picks in the top 50. Also like LA, the team opted for high school talents early, drafting six of their first 7 players out of high school. But the team did commit money to the college side: Olt was a supplemental first round guy, and the team went above slot to sign enigmatic college pitchers Justin Grimm and Nick Tepesch. The current depth of the Rangers farm system allows them to gamble a little bit on draft day. For a team that was facing such financial questions in June, spending this much on the draft was a welcome surprise.

Favorite AL West Draft: Texas. Least Favorite: Seattle.


2010 Draft Review: NL Central

The series continues.

CHICAGO CUBS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Hayden Simpson, Southern Arkansas, rhp, 16th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 2 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Cubs performances should serve as a reminder that using short-season statistics to make too many assumptions is problematic. This is because, in the limited time the draftees have been in the minor leagues, the middle-round picks are succeeding far more than the early rounders. While third-round college catcher Micah Gibbs has been a disaster, hitting .143/.229/.162 in 120 plate appearances, fifth-round outfielder Matthew Szczur was so good in the same league (.397/.439/.521) that he was promoted to full season ball. Where fourth-round JC lefty Hunter Ackerman has struggled in the complex league (2.21 WHIP!), eighth-round JC lefty Cameron Greathouse is getting ground balls (3.82 G/F) and strikeouts (9.0 K/9).

Thoughts: This was an undeniably strange draft by the Cubs, who signed just three players for more than $350,000. Tim Wilken has already thrown the gauntlet down for his first-round pick, comparing Simpson to Roy Oswalt on draft day. While they stuck their necks out with that pick, the other big investments in Reggie Golden and Ben Wells seem prudent. The team had a funny focus on smaller right-handers, perhaps seeing a market inefficiency that no one else did. While I like the team’s other picks (Golden, Szczur) quite a bit, it’s their ballsy strategy that bears paying attention to.

CINCINNATI REDS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Yasmani Grandal, Miami, c, 12th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6 college, 3 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team went with four college hitters early, and with the exception of Grandal, all have had a lot of time in the minors. Ryan LaMarre has been a little better than average (.353 wOBA) in the Midwest League, which is more than Devin Lohman (.314 wOBA) or Brodie Greene (.304 wOBA) are doing in the Pioneer and Carolina Leagues, respectively. We haven’t seen as much of the pitchers drafted, although former Oregon State ace Tanner Robles has done a nice job (3.85 FIP) in the difficult Pioneer League environment.

Thoughts: Grandal was a favorite of mine in the draft, and his selection adds another catcher to this system. If there is a worry about his game, I think the bat speed is probably more troubling than his arm strength. I didn’t find the three college hitters particularly inspiring, but then again, they weren’t really the next-best players signed: the team gave a half-million to high school outfielder Kyle Waldrop in the 12th round, and almost one million to sixth-round pick Drew Cisco. These guys add some nice depth, and star potential, to the draft behind Grandal.

HOUSTON ASTROS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Delino DeShields Jr, Georgia HS, 2B, 8th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 6/4.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team got its second and third pick, Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Kvasnicka, signed quickly, and both have had some good experience this summer. Foltynewicz has pitched better (4.26 FIP) than his 5.52 ERA indicates, while Kvasnicka has struggled with the bat while juggling three positions in the New York-Penn League. The most encouraging performances have come from second-round pick Vincent Velasquez (3.59 FIP) and fifth-round catcher Ben Heath, who has hit .271/.383/.516 over two leagues, including the South Atlantic League.

Thoughts: There was probably more pressure on the Astros to draft well — four of the first 58 picks, bad farm system — than any other team in baseball. They went for upside and potential, so it’s definitely too early to judge their haul. Kvasnicka’s early struggles are the most disconcerting, but easily written off given the defensive demands asked of him. And, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not the best college hitter the team drafted, between Heath and Austin Wates. But the key for the draft will be the three top 60 high school guys, who come at an investment of more than $4 million.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jimmy Nelson, Alabama, rhp, 64th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 6/4.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It’s pretty easy to just check the Helena Brewers box score to judge how this draft class has done so far: four of the team’s first five signees are there. The best has been either third-round pitcher Tyler Thornburg, who has struck out 20 of the 47 batters he’s faced, or sixth-round bat Cody Hawn, hitting a cool .284/.384/.510. Nelson has been a mixed bag out of the bullpen (3.37 FIP, 4.58 ERA), while Matthew Miller has been unimpressive in the rotation. The team’s first hitter drafted, Hunter Morris, has hit for power nicely (.205 ISO), but his .344 wOBA means the rest of his game is pretty unrefined.

Thoughts: It’s hard to assign the Brewers a lot of blame for not signing first-round pick Dylan Covey, who was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, and opted to attend college close to home rather than sign with Milwaukee. There isn’t much the team could do about it, but truly, without Covey the team’s draft is safe and unexciting. Perhaps Morris or Hawn are the eventual replacement for Prince Fielder at first base (though they won’t be ready in time to make it a seamless transition), and only Thornburg has a large gap between his present abilities and ultimate ceiling. Plain and simple, this is a draft that needed a first rounder.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 6.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jameson Taillon, Texas HS, rhp, 2nd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 4 college, 3 HS, 3 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Mel Rojas Jr. hit his 100 at-bat milestone yesterday in the New York-Penn League. While he’s showed little power (.060 ISO) and bad contact rates (25 K%), his patience and athleticism still grade out highly. On the same team, fifth-round pick Tyler Waldron has done a nice job with command and ground balls, but only 5.1 K/9. The majority of this draft class has not begun playing professionally yet.

Thoughts: This is great; this is a team putting their money where their mouth is, and showing a belief in the draft. $10 million is peanuts in the grand scheme of Major League spending, and it’s amazing how much talent it can bring in. In this draft, the Bucs signed two of the best high school pitchers to seven figure deals, and then gave five others at least $400K. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Pirates miss on their four big high school pitchers: Taillon, Stetson Allie, Nick Kingham, Ryan Hafner. And between Rojas, Drew Maggi and Jared Lakind, they might have snagged a future regular, too. This draft has great balance and a great budget. Win.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3b, 25th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s first four picks haven’t started yet. The earliest that has is high school shortstop Sam Tuivailala, and he’s been overmatched. The team’s next five picks were signable college guys, and all have done predictably well in short-season ball. Lefties John Gast (0.50 ERA, 18 IP) and Dan Bibona (0.61 ERA, 14.2 IP) have been ridiculous, while the best of the offensive players has been catcher Cody Stanley, both for his offense (.394 wOBA) and defense (56 CS%). Neither Nick Longmire (.842 OPS) or Greg Garcia (.778 OPS) have been bad, either.

Thoughts: St. Louis signed 17 of the first 18 players they drafted, with the exception being Austin Wilson, who I think was insurance in case Zack Cox didn’t sign. Their draft is college heavy, but I think they definitely have a few big leaguers here. Jordan Swagerty should fly through the system and make the bullpen by 2012. Cox has some more volatility than I’d like from a college guy, but his potential is excellent. Tyrell Jenkins was one of my favorite high school guys in the class. The Cardinals did good here, and it’s a good thing, because the farm system needed some depth.

Favorite NL Central Draft: Pittsburgh. Least Favorite: Milwaukee.


2010 Draft Review: AL Central

Here begins our team-by-team reviews of the 2010 draft. Each team is linked to their full draft at BaseballAmerica.com. And: yes, this is still too early to be judging a team’s draft. As a result, I will be pretty neutral in my analysis.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Chris Sale, Florida Gulf Coast, lhp, 13th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 9/1.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Amazingly, Sale has already made four appearances with the White Sox, running a zero ERA through 3.2 innings. Combine that with 19 strikeouts in 10.1 innings in the minors … The three college pitchers making up the 2-4 rounds of the draft — Jacob Petricka, Addison Reed, Thomas Royse — have all been great in the low minors, though Petricka has moved onto a full season league … Top offensive signee Andy Wilkins is doing what’s expected: bashing in the Pioneer League at a .338/.417/.534 clip, while playing mostly third base … Meanwhile, top high school pick Rangel Ravelo has really struggled (.550 OPS) in the Appy League.

Thoughts: While I found SEC draftees Wilkins and Ross Wilson moderately inspiring, there’s no doubt this draft is centered completely around college pitching. I have to hope and assume that Sale will soak in some knowledge from Don Cooper these last two months, but then be ready to open next season in Double-A, as a starter. Petricka has some fantastic potential, and don’t sleep on ninth-round pick Kevin Moran, who also has a good arm. I’m not a huge fan of one-note drafts — in this case, college pitchers — but those arms have enough variety to not have me write off the strategy completely.

CLEVELAND INDIANS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Drew Pomeranz, Ole Miss, lhp, 5th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 3 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances: Sixth-round JC shortstop Nick Bartolone is the highest drafted player to have regular playing time so far. After a nice stint in the complex league, Bartolone has struggled in eight games in the New York-Penn League … So, too, have Division I talents Jordan Cooper (4.90 FIP), Tyler Cannon (.247 wOBA) and Diego Seastrunk (.297 wOBA), all picked after the ninth round.

Thoughts: This is a team that gave seven figures to four players, and at least a quarter million to four others. There’s quite a bit of variety in that group, with two million dollar prep hitters (Tony Wolters, Alex Lavisky) and about $4 million in investments to five Division I pitchers. Pomeranz is the key to that group, but there was a time when Kyle Blair was ranked higher, and you have to like getting draft-eligible sophomore Michael Goodnight in the 13th round — he’s a real talent. This is to say nothing of LeVon Washington, who was drafted in the first round in 2009, who has a lot of believers. A diverse and expensive draft is going to get my praise every time.

DETROIT TIGERS
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Nick Castellanos, Florida HS, 3B/SS, 44th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Tigers were aggressive with some early drafted catchers, sending third-rounder Rob Brantly to the Midwest League, and sixth-rounder Bryan Holaday to the Florida State League. Brantly has been average-ish, while Holaday has been big with the lumber (.381 wOBA) but not with the glove (2-for-19 throwing out runners) … In fact, that West Michigan team added not only Brantly but a new right side, as Corey Jones (.394 wOBA) and Tony Plagman (.351 wOBA) have really helped the Whitecaps … On the not-so-positive side is Jim’s son Patrick Leyland, who has really struggled in the complex league, hitting .179/.234/.188 in 32 games.

Thoughts: Detroit’s annual financial commitment to the draft is inspiring, and it was no exception this year: Nick Castellanos broke the record for the largest bonus of a guy drafted outside the first round. Detroit also gave seven figures to Chance Ruffin and Drew Smyly, a pair of high-floor college pitchers. Obviously, though, they key here is Castellanos, and this is a huge statement about their belief in his ability. Getting Drew Gagnier in the 17th round was nice, but it’s not a draft I feel overly optimistic about. More than most drafts, it seems like the success of the draft is tied to one player.

KANSAS CITY
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Christian Colon, Cal State Fullerton, 4th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 8/2.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It hasn’t been an easy road for Christian Colon, who has a .299 wOBA in 180 plate appearances in the Carolina League. We know that Wilmington stadium is death on offense, but a 4.4 BB% and .286 BABIP won’t get it done in the low minors … Third-round pick Mike Antonio has made 15 errors in 24 games at shortstop in the complex league. It’s been a problematic first 28 games, but he has shown some nice gap power … The always enigmatic Scott Alexander has been nothing but in the Pioneer League, with a 4.68 FIP, a sky-high BABIP, and a 6.8 K/9.

Thoughts: For all the thinking that the Royals drafted Colon to save some money for later: Colon actually ended up getting the sixth-most money in this draft. They did spend a bit later, waiting until the midnight hour to get Brett Eibner and Jason Adam signed. While this draft has a lot of diversity, I’m not sure there’s much to be crazy about. Colon will need to stick at shortstop, Kevin Chapman a dominant Thornton-like reliever, and Jason Adam a nice high school diamond in the rough. I like Adam, but the fact that he has a pretty good chance to become the draft’s best player means a failure of scouting in rounds 1 and 2.

MINNESOTA
Number of First 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Alex Wimmers, Ohio State, rhp, 21st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 PR.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s two highest drafted hitters are both with the complex league team, and have offered completely different results. Second-round shortstop Niko Goodrum has been a mess through his first 100 professional at-bats, collecting half as many hits (15) as strikeouts (30). Puerto Rican outfielder Eddie Rosario has been great, showing both some power (.137 ISO) and speed (22/24 on bases) … Fifth-round outfielder Nate Roberts has been dominant in the Appy League, hitting .321/.433/.554 through 31 games.

Thoughts: It’s no secret that I really like Alex Wimmers, and he makes a lot of sense with the Twins. Minnesota continued its formula that they’ve built their farm system around: college pitchers with command, prep up-the-middle athletes. Wimmers is joined by Pat Dean and Logan Darnell as pitchers that should move through the low minors quickly. But if they aren’t future stars, the team did gamble with Goodrum and Rosario, and they certainly have some potential stars culled through the International Scouting Department. That said, the team went pretty inexpensive this year, and I’d love to see a few more risks.

Favorite AL Central Draft: Cleveland.