Next year, on draft day, the MLB Network will show the usual crop of limited highlights they have on the high school draftees. Much of the video, for a certain group of players, will come from an event played two days ago: the Under Armour All-American Game, presented by Baseball Factory, held at Wrigley Field. This, along with the AFLAC All-America Game, played in San Diego yesterday, are the final significant events in a summer rife with showcases for the nation’s top prospects. The games this weekend surely each had a couple players that will hear their name called by Bud Selig next June.

Living two miles south of Wrigley Field, I had no choice but to make an appearance on Saturday morning to get my first taste of this high school class. In the interest of full disclosure, I was only able to stay for batting practice and the “Home Run Derby.” Lucky for me, the event was televised, so I was still able to catch the game on DVR. Still, it’s amazing how much you pick up from a single batting practice, and I was joined by 50-75 scouts furiously taking notes as each kid had his turn. Here are 10 talking points from three different perspectives about the event.

What I Learned From Watching Batting Practice On the First Base Side at Wrigley

1. Rookie Davis is a beast of a man, his 220 pound listed weight (on a 6-foot-5 frame) is laughable. One of 17 pitchers to have his turn on the mound, the ECU commit stood out more in batting practice. Because of his strength, he doesn’t need to square up the baseball to hit home runs in Major League stadiums. His bat speed didn’t match some of the other raw athletes, but no one hit the ball farther.

2.In a similar vein, Jerrick Suiter entered the event with some helium for his mound prowess, having impressed many of the same scouts the week before at the Area Code Games. On Saturday, his appearance was a train wreck: he threw twice as many pitches as anyone else. His delivery and command were inconsistent if not plain bad. But while not viewed much as a hitter, his batting practice was one of the most impressive. He’s got an easy right-handed swing, showed a willingness to hit to right field, and has some untapped power. I wouldn’t close the door on an offensive career yet.

3. The name Dante Bichette Jr. jumped off the roster page at me, and Bichette bears a striking resemblance to his father. At the plate, he had a weird day. He hit a few balls out of Wrigley, albeit by design: he swung as hard as anyone all day, and almost fell over more than once. His swing lacks balance, and he has a strange leg lift that he uses as a timing mechanism. Bichette pulls everything (his knock to right field in the game was more accident than “a good piece of hitting”), so pitchers would be smart to feed him a diet of balls away.

4. I don’t love Home Run Derbies in events like this; it promotes a bad approach to young hitters. But for Mason Robbins, who I was told hit just three home runs in his junior season of high school, it did show the proof of some power. I liked Robbins’ batting practice much, but wrote that it looked like a gap power profile and nothing more. Then, he hit four home runs before making five outs at the Derby — ultimately falling short of the “prize” — and shut me up. Robbins is the type of guy that will flash all five tools, but each is closer to “50” on the scouting scale than anything else.

What I Learned From Reading Some Friends That Stayed For the Actual Game

5. Keith Law ranked Bubba Starling as the best prospect in the high school class last week, and found his belief reinforced on Saturday. This, despite the fact that football (Starling is a Nebraska-bound quarterback) has kept his game raw: “Starling is still just throwing rather than really pitching … [but] it’s hard to forecast future velocity below the 92-95 range,”Keith wrote. His offensive abilities are similar: he has real power, but his swing is inconsistent and has some swing-and-miss. Committing to baseball will make him a lot of money.

6. The game’s offensive MVP was Wyoming product Brandon Nimmo. It was a good day to impress, as his state doesn’t have high school baseball, and his summer legion team won’t play much (if at all) before next year’s draft. He made sure, though, that scouts won’t forget him, with a good BP and an impressive triple to the opposite field. “I liked his approach, and he uses the whole field…” a scout told Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

7. The pitching MVP was local product Nick Burdi, a right-handed pitcher from Downers Grove, a suburb 30 miles southwest of Wrigley. I’ll cut to Baseball America’s Conor Glassey on why his outing was award worthy: “Burdi struck out all three batters he faced, using a 91-94 mph fastball, 79-83 changeup and an 85 slider. “ KLaw got more of a reliever vibe from Burdi, who throws from a very low arm slot. I side with Keith there.

8. Frankie Piliere was decisive in giving Top Pitcher honors to Lance McCullers Jr. , another son with a big league pedigree. “He was far and away the best arm on display in Chicago, sitting 95-97 mph with his fastball,” Piliere wrote. The hard-thrower had a reputation as a hitter, too, but there’s no question his future is on the mound. His swing was funky for me; his velocity came easy. Of course, he doesn’t have to make the decision until June 2012 — he’s only a rising junior.

What I Learned From My DVR: Tele-Scouting.

9. Between the TV replay and a stop watch, I can tell you that Shon Carson posted a sub-4.2 second home-to-first time. Carson is a really good running back that shows a lot of promise in baseball: while just 5-foot-9, the ball jumped off his bat more than anyone else there. I also graded his arm at plus, so it might make sense fiscally for Carson to choose baseball.

10. I’m a sucker for a good change-up, but events like this are about the last place you’re bound to find one. That’s why Idaho native Clayton Porter was such a welcome break from the rest. The 6-foot-4 lefty had this series of pitches to begin his inning: fastball called strike over outside corner, 1-to-7 curveball that just missed low and inside, 88 mph fastball a little up and away fouled off, plus 81 mph change-up off the plate low and outside for a swinging strike three. Projectable with a feel for offspeed stuff? Sign me up.

(Tomorrow, when the dust clears: a review of the 2010 draft, seen through the prism of who actually signed. Today at 4 p.m. ET: Prospect Chat.)

On Wednesday, Dave Cameron ended his piece entitled “Halladay and Verlander” with this note, seemingly fired at those of us in the prospect business:

It might not be as sexy, but getting groundball outs and limiting walks is a far more efficient way of pitching than trying to blow every hitter away. Strikeout rate is nice, but don’t let it be the only tool you use to evaluate a young pitcher – not only are Ks not the only way to succeed, they aren’t even the best way.

This is a belief system that isn’t new to me, as it was essentially the premise for my offseason Staring Down the Sinkerballers series. But, that piece was limited to discussing one type of player: the two-seamer/slider pitcher that often flies under the radar. The fact is, we need to do a better job understanding how all pitchers will see their batted balls translate from minor league baseball to the Bigs. This is a case study of just that.

I created a list of pitchers that debuted in 2009, have had 150 innings over the span of two years, and at least 150 batters faced in each season. If I did my search at the B-Ref Play Index right, and I whittle it down to players with minor league experience, there are 18 pitchers left. It’s a diverse list, with lefties and righties, groundballers and flyballers, good pitchers and bad. It’s also a group that had their entire minor league career in the MinorLeagueSplits era. Now, I’ll tell you this: there are flaws with the mLS data. We all know that. But, like anything else, until we have something better, I’m going with that. I’ll probably follow this post up at a later time using GB/FB ratios — which I have official data for — but that seems just as flawed.

So, I looked at all 18 players, and I compiled a list at the levels where they faced 150 batters (this number I keep using is important: it’s when groundball rate stabilizes for a pitcher, at least at the big league level). Let’s start, both as an introduction to my sample group and as an entryway into the data, with the career minor league (mLGB) and Major League groundball rates of each player. I have ranked them in the order of those that dropped most from the minors to Majors:

Name                MLGB      mLGB      Diff
Brett Cecil         43.2      59.7      -16.5
Brian Matusz        34.7      48.1      -13.4
Rick Porcello       51.6      63.7      -12.1
Vin Mazzaro         41.9      52.8      -10.9
David Hernandez     28.5      37.9      -9.4
Trevor Cahill       51.2      58.6      -7.4
Jason Berken        41.3      48.6      -7.3
David Huff          37.2      44.3      -7.1
Craig Stammen       48.4      54.1      -5.7
Wade Davis          40.5      45.7      -5.2
Kris Medlen         42.2      47.2      -5.0
Mat Latos           43.1      47.7      -4.6
Brad Bergesen       49.0      52.6      -3.6
Brett Anderson      52.4      55.5      -3.1
Brian Duensing      48.5      50.3      -1.8
Doug Fister         47.8      47.9      -0.1
Tommy Hanson        40.2      39.1      +1.1
Ricky Romero        54.0      48.6      +5.4

It’s interesting, of course, that a different Blue Jays lefty is on both the top and bottom of this list. But also interesting that half the players dropped their groundball rate between 3 and 7.5 percent between the minor and Major leagues. Those who attended FanGraphs Live heard the problems I have with using MLEs to project minor leaguers. While it would be easy to do this study with everyone in the MinorLeagueSplits era, create an average drop that we apply for everyone, I just don’t find it all that informative. If you want to assume a player drops about 5-5.5 percent when he reaches the Majors, you’ll probably be about right as often as you’re about wrong.

But, let’s take it a step further. I next brought the 18 into four quadrants, ranked by their MLB GB%. Here are the five least groundball-ing pitchers, and their groundball rates at each level they registered 150 batters faced at (Note: The ~ symbol appears when they did so at that level in multiple seasons. I’m eyeballing there. Again, there are error bars around this data that are unavoidable).

Name       Low-A   HighA   DoubA   TripA   MLB
Hernandez  36.8    37.6    36.7    38.8    28.5
Matusz      N/A    49.5    45.8     N/A    34.7
Huff        N/A    42.0    49.5    ~44.0   37.2
Hanson     41.6    38.6    40.7    36.5    40.2
Davis      49.5    47.5    ~46.5   ~39.6   40.5

I find this far more explanatory. If we broke this group into guys with similar stuff profiles, you’d certainly group Hanson and Davis together as hard-throwing right-handers, with similar velocities on their fastballs, sliders and curveballs. Hanson was always the flyball pitcher he’s proven to be, but Davis took some trending down before showing his true colors in Triple-A. Hernandez is close to that caliber, but his stuff was never viewed in the same light. Like Hanson, he was always a flyball pitcher, but has taken it to a new level in the Major Leagues. He’s ditched his slider, and has problematic command, which I think might be to blame for the sub-30 GB%.

I’d also group Matusz and Huff together — college lefties with good command that start their arsenal with a 90 mph fastball and an 82 mph changeup. Neither had dependable Double-A numbers in the slightest, and with their stuff, shouldn’t have been trusted as 45% guys. I could see looking at all similarly-profiled lefties and searching for something similar. But for now, we look at our next quadrant, the flyball-leaning pitchers:

Name       Low-A   HighA   DoubA   TripA   MLB
Berken      N/A    52.0    47.6     N/A    41.3
Mazzaro    56.4    53.9    52.7    ~49.2   41.9
Medlen      N/A     N/A    43.4     N/A    42.2
Latos       N/A     N/A    41.3     N/A    43.1
Cecil       N/A     N/A    59.2    59.8    43.2

Wait, there’s another college lefty with good command, a fastball around 90, and a changeup at 82, also posting some misleading Double-A numbers! Brett Cecil, come on down! Cecil throws a sinker more often than Matusz and (especially) Huff, and it really worked in the minors. Whether it’s an issue of command, or just not enough sink, it hasn’t in the bigs. Latos probably fits in with Tommy Hanson, never really hiding that he’d be a flyball guy. Medlen is just outside of that category, smaller than those pitchers, with less velocity, and a change-up as his go-to pitch. In a small sample, he was getting a ton of groundballs in the low minors, but in Double-A, showed the tendencies he’s settled into with Atlanta.

Finally, I think we have to compare Jason Berken and Vin Mazzaro, similarly sized fastball-slider guys. Mazzaro throws more sinkers, and thus, has always had higher groundball rates. But ultimately, I think this is a sign of the quality of Major League hitters: neither pitcher has stuff that’s considered particularly world-beating. Next, we have four guys that have induced better-than-average groundball rates:

Name       Low-A   HighA   DoubA   TripA   MLB
Fister      N/A     N/A    ~48.0   44.1    47.8
Stammen    55.9    ~53.5    N/A    ~54.0   48.4
Duensing    N/A    48.8    ~48.8   ~50.2   48.5
Bergesen   ~48.5   54.7    53.1     N/A    49.0

Having introduced Mazzaro and Berken, smallish sinkerballers, gives us a nice frame of reference with Brad Bergesen and Craig Stammen. Both of them are of a similar ilk, though maybe Stammen’s cutter separates him a bit, and maybe explains his greater success than Mazzaro in maintaining an above-average GB%. Bergesen is explained, I think, simply by having a better sinker. But the fact is, with all four, we do see a noticeable drop from even Double-A to the Majors. Fister is a bit of a weird duck, and hard to explain — you have to think his size, more than anything else, leads to a good groundball rate. But that’s sort of always been the case, I guess. Part of you wants to compare Duensing to the other college lefties above, but he throws a little harder, has spent most of his Major League time in relief, and his go-to offspeed pitch is a slider. And he hasn’t wavered much in terms of groundball rates.

Finally, here are the guys getting a ton of groundballs:

Name       Low-A   HighA   DoubA   TripA   MLB
Cahill     56.4    61.4    61.8     N/A    51.2
Porcello    N/A    64.1     N/A     N/A    51.6
Anderson   57.9    ~54.8    N/A     N/A    52.4
Romero      N/A    41.9    ~48.7   55.9    54.0

Ricky Romero is obviously the guy that stands out, but I hesitate to make many assumptions from his numbers. It’s pretty clear that he didn’t become interested in inducing grounders until 2008. This probably sounds like a cop-out, but it’s true: go back and read Baseball America’s scouting report of Romero from the 2005 draft — the movement on his fastball isn’t lauded at all. Fast forward three years, and they are praising the “good life” on his fastball, and referencing a new “vulcan change, which behaves like a splitter.” He’s just a different guy.

I would not hesitate to compare Cahill and Porcello, two lauded high school pitchers that are big, throw sinkers 50% of the time, and were 60% groundball guys in the minors. They are ridiculously similar, and I think tell us a lot about their type of pitcher. Finally, we have Cahill’s teammate Brett Anderson, who might be too unique to comp. His combination of movement, velocity and offspeed stuff is pretty unmatched among Major League lefties. It should be no surprise that the truly unique can sustain +50% ratios at the highest level.

That’s where we’ll leave things today. But there are some interesting groups that I think we can extrapolate and further investigate: the fastball-change lefty, the prospect-y hard-throwing righty, the smallish sinkerballer, among others. If we can understand players in the context of their own stuff, then we might be getting to a place where we can evaluate young pitchers using the tool that Mr. Cameron hopes.

Mike Minor is a perfect example for why draft day armchair analysis doesn’t work. In 2009, the Vanderbilt lefty went seventh overall to the Braves, amid fairly consistent criticism from pundits. His fastball, at the time, graded out below average for some scouts, and his breaking ball was inconsistent at best. Everyone agreed that Minor had a good (great?) change-up, but while the comparisons people made to Jeremy Sowers would have once been a compliment, Minor seemed more like a late first round pick than someone that should be drafted ahead of Aaron Crow, Alex White, or Kyle Gibson.

Then, suddenly, Minor wasn’t the same pitcher anymore. Or, maybe he was exactly who Braves scouts thought he could be. This kid that wasn’t “dominant” in college — striking out just one batter per inning, and holding an ERA around 4 — was leading the minor leagues in strikeouts. Once a command specialist, who had a 1.89 BB/9 as an SEC freshman, Minor was now wild, with a walk rate of 3.5. Explanations were hard to come by. I assumed it was a mastering of his curveball, a pitch that college coach Tim Corbin told me on draft day last year was quickly becoming a weapon for him. It wasn’t until even later in the season that we found out his velocity had taken a step forward. In the Futures Game, he touched 95 mph. And by that point, Minor was dominating Triple-A.

Yesterday, the Braves called up Minor to open their series against the Houston Astros. I’m a geek for Major League debuts, and seeing as though Mike Minor was opposite Bud Norris — a former breakout prospect of mine, and current xFIP underachiever — it was must watch television for me. Ultimately, and probably unsurprisingly, it was a pretty sloppy game. The Astros won 10-4 after a seventh inning Braves bullpen implosion. Minor certainly gave the team a chance to win: six innings, one walk, five strikeouts. He did find that even Major Leaguers aren’t immune to ball-in-play variance, as two bloop hits and one Alex Gonzalez error were responsible for three of his four runs allowed. Given the overall success of the outing, his FIP (2.44) tells a better story for the start than his ERA (4.50). But that’s hardly a surprise.

Minor was a good study in the difference between control and command: he wasn’t wild, but he wasn’t hitting Brian McCann’s glove behind the plate, either. In Minor’s problem inning, the fourth, his first run came on a bloop double by Carlos Lee. McCann set up further in and up than where the pitch ended up, and while Minor probably didn’t deserve the run, 92 mph belt-high and middle-in won’t get it done at the highest level. Two batters later, his worst pitch of the night came to Brett Wallace, and by his reaction, Minor knew it. Wallace stung the down-the-middle offering, but with topspin, preventing the first home run of both their careers.

Even with the addition of velocity — Minor was 92-94 mph early on, touching 95, before pitching at 89-91 in the 5th and 6th innings — it’s hard to see it becoming a dominant Major League offering. According to Texas Leaguers (I should note that I have some problems with their pitch classifications after one start — what they list as two-seam fastballs were actually changeups), Minor’s whiff rate on his fastball last night was just 3.4%. In multiple at-bats, the southpaw struggled to put batters away with his fastball, giving up a huge percentage of foul balls. Perhaps if he can maintain consistent 92-95 mph, that will change, but we’ll first need to see it to believe it. This was an Astros lineup, after all, that featured Angel Sanchez and Jeff Keppinger hitting second and third, respectively.

But there are positives to take away from this start; namely, that Minor showed a fantastic change-up. The whiff rate of that offering was somewhere north of 25%, and, while he elevated a few, had pretty solid command of the pitch low and away to right-handed hitters. It’s a weapon, and dare I say, it has the opportunity to be one of baseball’s best. He’s a better pitcher than Jason Vargas or Wade LeBlanc, and a different pitcher than Ricky Romero or Jaime Garcia, but the strength of those change-ups is what I’m trying to convey.

In conclusion, while we have to adjust Minor’s long-term projection as a result of the first four months of his minor league season, I don’t want the numbers to have expectations too high. Minor is still more of a #3 starter than anything else, and there’s work to be done on his game. His breaking ball needs work, even though there are signs of a plus pitch there. His fastball is a bit of a tweener: not consistent-enough velocity to blow people away, not good-enough command to hit all his spots. He is close to being pretty damn good, but there is still work to be done. And with the Braves in the height of a playoff race, I’m not sure now is the time to be learning.

Houston Astros top pitching prospect Jordan Lyles was promoted to Triple-A following his last start, his 21st appearance above A-ball. While with Corpus Christi in the Texas League, Lyles posted a 3.12 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and succeeded despite a defense that led to a .328 BABIP. He left the Texas League fifth in innings pitched and second in strikeouts, despite being the league’s third youngest player.

Lyles, who jumped straight from the South Atlantic League (Low-A) to the Texas League (Double-A), will now become the youngest player in the Pacific Coast League. He will turn 20 following the season, in October. Recently, Houston manager Brad Mills told the Houston Chronicle that Lyles could have one promotion left this season: a Major League debut.

“That’s not out of the question,” Mills said. “You see guys make those steps all the time, get a couple of starts at Triple-A and then move up to the next level.

“If he is as good as advertised, that wouldn’t be surprising at all.”

If he does follow that path laid out by Mills, Lyles is in line to become the eighth player in the last 20 years to pitch in the Majors at age 19. Here are the previous seven: Madison Bumgarner, Felix Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Rick Ankiel, Matt Riley, Todd Van Poppel and Rich Garces. It’s not the most inspiring list, but it should be mentioned that the 80’s had some better success stories with Jose Rijo, Dwight Gooden, and Fernando Valenzuela. To be in that territory is certainly the sign of an elite prospect.

But when I mentioned this on Twitter, Jack Moore had a good (albeit snarky!) point: “He should slow down a little bit so he can still be under team control when Houston can put another contender on the field.” Hyperbole, perhaps, but the underlying point is that Houston is risking having Lyles enter free agency a year earlier with this aggressive path, and you have to believe that they will be more successful in 2017 than 2011.

First, I should say one thing: I totally agreed with the Astros decision to have Lyles bypass High-A and the California League. Their affiliate in the league, Lancaster, is no place for baseball to be played: the stadium there is seeing 12.8 runs per game, which you might remember in contrast to the Florida State League, where the highest this season was 9.93. Plus, Lyles posseses an arsenal geared for success in the higher levels, which I praised after the Futures Game a couple weeks ago. Armed with one of the minor league’s best change-ups, and good command of his fastball, Lyles had no problem making the jump, even holding lefties to a .259/.309/.374 line this season.

But jumping from Low-A to Double-A in one season is a precedented move that the California League has forced teams to exercise often. Moving that same player to Triple-A, and possibly to the Major Leagues at age 19, is less precedented, and as a result, open to more questioning. While Lyles is a workhorse, he’s also just 18 innings from bypassing last year’s innings pitched total (144.2). The more appropriate decision might be to give him five starts, where his inning total will be around 160, and then to call it a season.

Before this season, I wrote a piece criticizing the Braves for opening the season with Jason Heyward on the 25-man roster. If other teams are exploiting the service time rules to retain their players for the most time (see: Santana, Carlos; Strasburg, Stephen), I thought the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze for Atlanta. Many of you argued the ethics of such a move. In hindsight, given Atlanta’s spot atop the NL East, aided no doubt by Heyward’s 2.6 WAR, I was probably wrong about my example, if not my point.

Regardless of his performance in Triple-A this month, Lyles should return to Round Rock to start next season. He should make 11 starts there to open the 2011 season, and if he’s then ready, should finally make his big league debut next June. I don’t think anyone would argue they held him back, and the team wouldn’t lose a service year to their own fascinations. It’s the most prudent, responsible move for an organization that owes their fan base a well-managed rebuild.

Lyles is one of the minor leagues best pitching prospects, and has been developed flawlessly by the Astros. Here’s to hoping he’s still around for Astros fans in 2017.

One constant refrain in minor league statistical analysis is that Context is Everything. Statistics mean very little in a vacuum, but instead, we need to know factors like their age relative to level, their league’s run environment, their park’s run environment. These are all factors that can wreak havoc on our attempt to judge a basic AVG/OBP/SLG batting line. We’ll be playing around to make things context-neutral all winter, but today, I wanted to magnify an environment that is universally known to favor pitching: the Florida State League.

Scouts and statisticians alike know the difficulty hitters face in the FSL, and both are long ahead of me in making adjustments. If you want to see the specific proof, I always point to a great offseason article at the Hardball Times by Justin Inaz. In terms of runs and BaseRuns alike, the FSL is the hardest league in professional baseball for hitters. As a result, I think most of us (I know that I’ve been) are guilty of seeing a batting line out of Florida, and saying, “Well, he’s played in the FSL, so I should boost up those numbers relative to other High-A players.”

However, it’s important to remember that if we continue on the path towards context-neutral, our adjustments need to be taken a step further: park adjustments. While we know how the league plays in the context of the Carolina and (especially) California Leagues, I haven’t seen a ton detailing how the specific stadiums play within the context of the league itself. In that vein, I calculated the runs per game and home runs per game at each FSL stadium (by both the home and road team) from both this season, and over the 2008-2010 period.

Name           R/G     HR/G     3R/G     3HR/G     
FSL Avg       8.45     1.01     8.34      1.10
Brevard       8.02     0.67     7.84      0.88
Clearwater    8.59     1.31     8.30      1.34
Daytona       9.07     1.30     8.99      1.21
Dunedin       8.81     1.47     8.89      1.45
Fort Myers    8.64     0.76     8.13      0.90
Jupiter       7.79     0.63     7.72      0.84
Lakeland      8.07     0.93     8.87      1.34
Palm Beach    7.68     0.75     7.78      0.79
St. Lucie     9.93     1.07     9.35      1.27
Tampa         7.56     0.81     7.77      0.78

Note: Not included above are Bradenton and Charlotte, because those affiliates haven’t existed for 3 years. Bradenton has played (relatively) hitter-friendly this year, at 9.79 runs and 1.30 home runs per game. Charlotte is somewhere between neutral and pitcher-friendly, at 7.38 runs and 1.13 homers per contest.

You see quite a bit of diversity in those numbers. This season, for every home run hit in Jupiter, there have been 2.3 hit in Dunedin. The league has three stadiums that seem to be extreme pitcher’s parks (Jupiter, Palm Beach, Tampa), and two others that favor pitchers (Brevard, Fort Myers) by a decent amount. By contrast, hitters from Clearwater, St. Lucie, Dunedin and Daytona probably receive more credit from our sub-conscious FSL adjustments than they deserve.

Some thoughts on how these findings should alter our thoughts on specific prospects numbers this season.

Jumping right into the rest of yesterday’s moves…

The Nationals acquire Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa.

A couple of interesting points to bring up here. First, I think it’s clear that a blocked prospect is worth less on an open market. As Jack pointed out yesterday, the Twins were left trading Ramos (and another player) just to add a half-win to an already successful bullpen this season, as well as Capps’ potential 2011 contributions. The other 29 teams certainly know that Wilson Ramos didn’t have a future in Minnesota, and his trade value was effected by it. He’ll be an important anecdote for the next blocked prospect on the trade block.

Ramos is a guy that has never caught more than 80 games in a single season, with a long injury history that has hampered his development some. Patience wasn’t a skill he was able to acquire over just 375 games in five years, and it certainly stands in the way of his offensive potential. Defensively, the skills are already there, and they are excellent. Don’t be surprised if Ramos becomes one of the top defensive signal callers in the National League very soon. His offensive game will be very tied to his strikeout rate — I don’t think he’ll be a positive with the bat, but he’s just trying to fight off being a negative. Still, a league-average bat (+0) and +3 defense in two-thirds of a season is about two and a half wins. Ramos should be able to get there, and is a two-win guy even is his wOBA doesn’t pass .320.

However, he also heads to a team that has signed a Hall of Fame catcher to a two-year contract. The Nationals need to be clear with Pudge Rodriguez that when they deem Ramos ready, Pudge becomes a $3 million back-up. And, hopefully, a mentor to a player whose defensive abilities could only be helped by a select few. Where this leaves Jesus Flores is a question I don’t have an answer to.

Interestingly enough, the Nationals made this trade with another catching prospect of their own. One of the reasons some believed Bryce Harper was instantly perceived as an outfielder by the Nationals is because of their faith in Derek Norris. While I don’t think that’s true, Norris is a really nice prospect. In just a couple years, his catching skills have improved remarkably: just four passed balls and a 55% caught stealing rate this year. Combine that with 234 career walks in 1253 plate appearances, and an inkling of power that has hid this year, and he profiles better than Ramos in the long run. However, this does allow the Nationals to develop Norris at a very conservative pace, perhaps sending him back to Potomac next year for a half-season or so. These things tend to figure themselves out.

The Nationals also bring in left-handed reliever Joe Testa in the deal, but he’s nothing more than a throw-in. He’s death on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .179 batting average with just 18 walks and five extra-base hits over about 185 plate appearances in the last year and a half. He’s a good bet to reach the Major Leagues as a LOOGY.

The Blue Jays acquire Anthony Gose.

So, if reports are to be believed, this is the guy the Blue Jays wanted since the Roy Halladay trade. The Phillies wouldn’t budge, and sent Michael Taylor instead, who Toronto immediately flipped for Brett Wallace. When Gose was pushed into the Roy Oswalt trade, Toronto saw their chance. I don’t think these series of moves bode particularly well for Taylor or Wallace; in Taylor’s case, clearly the Phillies and Blue Jays value Gose over him, and in Wallace’s case, it’s never good when a guy plays for four organizations before reaching the Major Leagues. Jason Bay is the only success story with that resume I can think of.

As for Gose, he’s certainly a guy that looks the part. Gose has a good center fielder body, and absolutely blazing speed, with now 115 steals in 245 career games. He does make an insane amount of outs on the bases, too, though. His defense in center field — while it didn’t get good reviews from TotalZone last year — has been praised by scouts. His first-step instincts might need some work, but his range and his cannon arm are certainly Major League caliber.

But, like you probably guessed, the question is the bat. An optimist would point to the minor steps forward taken in both the walk and power columns this year, though the pessimist would be quick to point out that neither is to an acceptable level. I wouldn’t write off the patience of a 19-year-old, but I don’t think you’ll find many that think this 60% groundball rate hitter will have much power to speak of at higher levels. And, of course, he’s now striking out more than ever, profiling to whiff 150 times per season. It’s hard to think he’ll ever get out of the negative range with the bat.

There is a path to success for Gose, but the sheer amount of refinement that will take makes it extremely unlikely. You have to think this kind of a guy becomes a fifth outfielder in the Majors at least, but his ceiling is about where Brett Wallace’s meager median outcomes lie.

The Orioles acquire Wynn Pelzer.

There is no downside to this move by the Orioles, who open up a spot for a red-hot Josh Bell by trading Miguel Tejada. The pickings were going to be slim, but Pelzer at least offers a live arm with a lot of potential. Pelzer was a ninth-round pick in 2007, but got above-slot money despite an enigmatic career at South Carolina. The Padres returned Pelzer to the rotation, a role he could never hold onto with the Gamecocks.

Entering the 2010 season, the decision couldn’t have appeared better. Pelzer was commanding the zone better than he’d ever before, and in 2009, even the Cal League’s tough environment couldn’t hold him back. Pelzer allowed just six home runs in 150 innings, posting a groundout-to-flyout ratio of 2.00. While he was pretty limited to two pitches, the movement on his 94 mph fastball was enough to handle A-ball hitters. The belief is usually that we don’t know a prospect’s true colors until he reaches Double-A, however, and it’s been a rocky season for Pelzer.

Through 18 starts, Pelzer had a 4.52 ERA, 1.13 GO/AO, was getting crushed by left-handed hitters (.846 OPS allowed), and a 4.72 BB/9. After July 13, the Padres moved Pelzer to the bullpen, whether because of his lack of success, a chance to limit his innings, or a chance to showcase his raw stuff for the trade deadline. In four relief outings since, Pelzer hasn’t allowed a run in 6.2 innings, and has been a groundball machine. Still, with 10 walks allowed, control is a problem like it hasn’t been since college.

With such a drastic platoon split that’s been apparent since his professional career began, it’s hard to imagine Pelzer having a ton of success as a starting pitcher. But in the bullpen, where his fastball can go above 95 mph with movement, and where his slider is death on right-handed hitters, Pelzer could be very good. If the Orioles end up with an elite reliever for a half-season of Miguel Tejada that they really didn’t need, it will certainly be a victory for them.

The Astros picked two hitters in the first round of the 2010 draft: a toolsy up-the-middle player with boom-or-bust written all over him (Delino DeShields Jr.), and a college slugger with defensive versatility, if not defensive talent (Mike Kvasnicka). In 2009, the team’s first pick was a toolsy shortstop from California (Jiovanni Mier). In 2008, the first year that scouting director Bobby Heck helmed the draft room, the team took a “safe” college hitter in the first round (Jason Castro), before going for a raw, toolsy high school outfielder in the second round (Jay Austin).

Pardon if this is repetitive, but by trading Roy Oswalt to the Phillies today, the Astros acquired a Dominican shortstop with some raw, exciting tools (Jonathan Villar), and a former first-round slugger whose been relegated to first base (Brett Wallace). Clearly, Houston believes in a certain kind of diversification of their prospect portfolio. This is a good thing. The bad thing is that they don’t seem particularly adept at talent evaluation. Let’s ignore the fact that Kvasnicka is struggling out of the gate, or that Jiovanni Mier has a .610 OPS in his full-season debut, or that Jason Castro’s offensive potential seems lower than ever.

The Astros have simply not added a single position player to their system with star potential in Bobby Heck’s tenure. Not a single player mentioned above is ever going to profile as someone that could contribute 5 WAR in the Major Leagues. Trading Oswalt was one of the team’s few opportunities to find its next star, and they didn’t do it. This is a team mining for role players when they don’t have the budget to find their foundation pieces through free agency. It’s terribly misguided management.

Villar is a fun prospect, a switch-hitting athlete with the rare combination of speed and arm that should allow him to stick at shortstop. But he doesn’t profile to hit for power, strikes out very often, and will need to learn a lot to develop some patience. Stars don’t ever have to overcome that many obstacles. Brett Wallace is a smooth swinger that most people believe can hit .300 at the Major League level. But he’s not even a good defender at first base, his walk rate isn’t improving, and in 869 plate appearances in Triple-A, his ISO is just .185.

The Astros didn’t need to acquire three players for the Roy Oswalt trade to be a success. They needed to acquire one star, and it’s hard to imagine a future where Villar, Wallace or even J.A. Happ reach that level.

Certainly, the best chance at someone doing so is Villar. It isn’t a stretch to believe the toolsy shortstop could develop patience down the road, as he entered this season with 47 walks in 410 career plate appearances. This season, in his first test at full-season baseball, the ratio has slipped to 6.2%. But there is potential there. Scouts also like Villar’s defensive actions, even despite his 42 errors in 99 games. Errors are a part of minor league baseball, but with his speed and arm, sticking at shortstop should be easy. He also should become a very good baserunner, capable of adding 5 runs per season with his legs.

The problems in Villar’s game are all offensive. His career strikeout rate stands at a robust 27.4%, so for example, this season he’s needed to maintain a .369 BABIP just to post a .272 batting average. Even with his speed, this won’t be easy to maintain at higher levels. Secondly, Villar really doesn’t have a swing that profiles to hit a lot of power. Minor League Splits has his groundball rate at 60.7% this season, so he’ll need a change in both swing and approach to hit for power. It’s just not going to happen. Even if Villar has 600 plate appearances at shortstop, and even if he develops into a +7.5 shortstop and +5 baserunner, I don’t think we’ll ever see him at the +10 wRAA mark he would need to reach 5 WAR.

Wallace is pretty much just the opposite. His game is so dependent on offense, that even getting to 2-3 WAR consistently will be an issue. After Lance Berkman moves out of Houston, Wallace is the future at first base. He’s not good there, and is surely somewhere worse than 2.5 runs below average. To even reach 3 WAR, he’d have to produce 25 runs with the bat to be worth three wins. And given the fact that he’s never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.

Houston didn’t do well today. With their best chance to finally acquire a player they could build their future around, they acquired two players with role player ceilings.

Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the Wallace-for-Gose swap, as well as Wynn Pelzer, the Baltimore Orioles acquisition for Miguel Tejada.

The Florida Marlins woke up this morning with a less than 5% chance to make the playoffs. Jorge Cantu is two months from free agency, and at the last check, will not be ranked highly enough by Elias to award free agent compensation. If there was value to be had for Cantu, any at all, the Marlins had no choice but to get it. With all that said, it’s hard not to like the two prospects the Marlins acquired from the Rangers today, Evan Reed and Omar Poveda.

Poveda is the more familiar name in prospect circles, despite a six-year career with only one stop (second tour of Midwest League, 2007) yielding an ERA below 4.00. He has not pitched in 2010 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The thinking is that an injured arm altered Poveda’s performance in 2009, where his K/9 essentially was halved.

The Venezuelan right-hander never had a particularly good fastball, so there has to be some concern that he’ll return to the mound without a heater to speak of. If so, it’s unlikely to project that he’d be able to carve out a big league career. But, he was a guy that had a feel for a change-up and curveball, and will likely come out of the gate pitching backwards. It’s not a sexy career path, and it’s an unlikely one to work, but again, it’s a near-free shot in the dark for Florida.

The better chance at providing actual value to the Marlins is Evan Reed. A third-round pick in the 2007 draft, the Rangers drafted the Cal Poly closer with the intention of making him a starting pitcher. Doing so for the 2008 season was a bit of a disaster — between the California League and pacing himself, Reed lost his abilities to strike people out and keep the ball in the park. It clearly was misguided, and the Rangers acted swiftly last year, moving him back to the closer role. Reed responded with a 12.0 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9. He was over his head in the Arizona Fall League, however, allowing three home runs in limited work.

Up to Double-A this season, the results have been excellent. Reed comes after people with his 92-94 mph fastball, and is now commanding it at the best rate of his career. He’s groundball heavy on his best days, and never seems to allow home runs. It’s highly likely that Reed contributes at the Major League level in the seventh and eighth innings. He will be ready to join the Major League team sometime between the middle of next season and Opening Day 2012.

Evan Reed will produce more WAR with the Marlins than Jorge Cantu will with the Rangers. And anything that either Reed or Poveda ever provides will be gravy, considering the Marlins tenuous spot in the NL East standings.

If we are to assume the Roy Oswalt rumors to be true, yesterday brought us three trades, all of which have already been written up here at FanGraphs: Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers, Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers, and now, Oswalt possibly to the Phillies. When trades with significant prospects are dealt, I write up the players as soon as they happen. That I waited until this morning to begin my analysis on Giovanni Soto, Lucas May, Elisaul Pimentel and Vance Worley tells you a lot about where those players grade out. We’ll finish the Oswalt trade analysis when all pieces of the trade have been disclosed, but for now, we’ll start with what we have this morning:

The Astros reportedly acquire Vance Worley.

It’s been a big couple weeks for Vance Worley. On July 9, the 22-year-old threw his first career complete game shutout in Double-A, striking out 7 and inducing 14 groundball outs against Harrisburg. His next outing came nine days later, and Worley responded with eight more shutout innings, his fourth scoreless outing in seven starts. Repeating the level after a lackluster 2009, the Phillies rewarded Worley with a promotion to fill a hole in their Major League bullpen.

Worley’s unceremonious debut came last Saturday in the ninth inning of a 10-2 win over the Rockies, inducing Ian Stewart to hit a flyball to center before striking out Chris Iannetta and Brad Hawpe. Worley threw 17 fastballs, averaging at 92.9 mph, though Texas Leaguers shows that he did cut and sink his fastball at different times. Worley also mixed in two solid sliders and one show-me curveball. The next day, Worley was sent to Triple-A, where he made his debut on Tuesday. Pitching against the Durham Bulls, Worley threw six more shutout innings, striking out seven with a 10-1 GO/AO ratio. If Jon Heyman is to be believed, Worley’s career with the Phillies will end there, with 24 scoreless innings spread over three levels.

So, what are the Astros getting in the former third-round pick? In college at Long Beach State, Worley was an underachiever, finishing his career with a 3.98 ERA, and worse, a 5.66 K/9. To quote Baseball America’s draft scouting report that year: “Command is the primary concern with Worley, not in terms of walks but in quality of pitches and efficiency.” But scouts still liked the potential, an innings-eater body with a fastball at 91-94 mph. It transferred to some big results in his debut summer, as Worley dominated the South Atlantic League over 11 starts.

The Phillies were more aggressive with Worley the next season, skipping High-A and sending him to the Double-A Eastern League. He struggled there, posting a 5.34 ERA (versus a 4.39 FIP), with a highish BABIP (.305) and a very low LOB% (59.5%). There was certainly more buzz about Worley perhaps being a better fit in the bullpen, especially with the addition and development of a slider to his arsenal. But before relegating Worley to that fate, the Phillies gave him another try at Double-A this year, and by most accounts, it has gone well. Worley isn’t going to strike a lot of people out, but he pounds the strike out, and has the potential to post above-average groundball and home run rates. However, he’s been inconsistent in that regard.

Worley is a close-to-the-Majors pitcher that should either be a back-end rotation guy, or someone who I still believe could thrive in relief. The Astros will have a big decision on their hands during Spring Training next year, but either way, they have a solid pitcher who has never been better than he has in the last three weeks.

The Royals acquire Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel.

Certainly the more interesting prospect here is Pimentel, a recently-turned 22-year-old Dominican pitcher that has had success this season in the Midwest League: 3.49 ERA, 7.1 H/9, 9.7 K/9. This is Pimentel’s third-year stateside — after success in the Gulf Coast League in 2008, he struggled a bit last year in the Pioneer League, mostly due to a .361 BABIP allowed. At that level, at that altitude, you have to blame Pimentel’s environment, and not the pitcher himself.

That has stabilized this year, and from May 22 to June 20, Pimentel was the best pitcher in the Midwest League: 1 earned run in 35 innings. He’s struggled a bit since then, with five of his six homers allowed this season coming in the last month. He’s been stingy with the longball previously in his career, however. Pimentel is a ways away from the Majors, and his stuff isn’t great (Baseball America has him 88-92 mph with the fastball), but anytime you can acquire someone that has shown the ability to strike people out, command the strike zone, and keep the ball in the stadium — in exchance for Scott Podsednik — you have to do it.

May is less interesting, though as a catcher close to the Majors, perhaps he shouldn’t be. May was drafted all the way back in 2003 as a high school shortstop. I believe, and look for readers to correct me, that May will be a minor league free agent this season unless he is added to the Royals 40-man roster. Like the Dodgers often do, May was converted to a catcher between the 2006-and-2007 seasons. His athleticism and arm strength are both plus, but it hasn’t translated to solid catching skills.

As a hitter, it’s hard to separate May from the environments he’s benefitted from, both when he showed power at Inland Empire in 2007, and his .347/.392/.603 batting line this season in Las Vegas. We know he doesn’t bode well in either the walk or strikeout columns. He’s going to hit lefties some, and probably could make for a decent back-up catcher. Again, given what the Royals gave up, this has to be considered a win.

The Indians acquire Giovanni Soto.

I know I wasn’t the only Cubs fan that did a double-take when this trade hit the “wire” yesterday — Hendry has us believing anything, these days. Instead, when the dust settled, it was merely former 21st round draft pick Giovanni, a lefty from Puerto Rico that has had a lot of success in his 29-appearance professional career. Soto is a beanpole at 6-foot-3 but just 155 pounds, so the Indians hope is that there’s some projection to be salvaged. We already know he is a lefty that gets groundballs (1.96 GO/AO), so it’s not a terrible starter kit. And, as I wrote this offseason, the Indians do a good job when picking prospects to acquire.

Twins rookie third baseman Danny Valencia will pass the 100 plate appearance threshold in his two-month big league career today, and will do so having grabbed hold of a position that has haunted the organization since Corey Koskie (though Nick Punto deserves credit for his great glove in 2006). Valencia is an unlikely Major Leaguer — 19th round draft picks always are — but has worked really hard in the Twins system, and was ranked third by Marc Hulet and sixth by Baseball America among Twins prospects this offseason. Still, I didn’t think anyone would have guessed Valencia would arrive on the scene in such style, batting .400/.449/.511 through 29 games. In his last four, he’s been the hottest hitter in baseball: 14-for-19 with four doubles and his first big league home run, off Zack Greinke no less.

The man is certainly tempting Dave’s post from yesterday about accepting randomness. Yes, however unlikely, even a 25-year-old with a lifetime .298/.353/.469 minor league batting line (and just .289/.322/.421 in 484 Triple-A PA’s) can be baseball’s MVP over a four-day stretch. I checked his minor league game logs, and he was never even this good for four days in the minors. The closest he came was back in 2006, during his pro debut in the Appalachian League. From July 27 to July 30 that year (interesting, and coincidental, how similar the dates are), Valencia went 11-for-15 with three doubles and two home runs.

While you don’t need me to tell you that Valencia will cool off, the question is whether he can be a viable option at third base for the Twins going forward. He’s amassed just 1.4 WAR in 98 plate appearances, not just because of his .427 wOBA, but also because he’s generated 1.5 UZR in 214 innings, computing out to +13.7 over 150 games. John Manuel’s scouting report last year said “[Valencia is] just not consistent defensively,” with praise for his arm strength and first-step, but minuses for his concentration and footwork. His minor league TotalZone numbers, like they often are, were a mixed bag: +18 in 2008 between High-A and Double-A, -10 in 2009 between Double- and Triple-A.

The defense is going to have to be good, because once Valencia’s BABIP comes off its insane .449 mark, his offensive weaknesses will become apparent. The University of Miami product is below average in both the power and patience categories. The latter has been highly inconsistent during his minor league career, averaging out at just 7.8 BB%, though it comes with wild variance. Valencia spent each year 2007-2009 splitting half the season between two levels, and had these BB% splits each year: 2007 (10.3 then 6.4), 2008 (10.8 then 6.3), 2009 (12.3 then 2.8). This year, so far, a promotion has actually brought improvement, going from 6.9% in 200 AAA plate appearances to 8.8% in his 100 in the bigs. Going forward, I think anything from 6.5 to 11% in his walk rate wouldn’t surprise me, which over the course of a full season is the difference between 39 and 66 walks.

His power numbers should be a little easier to predict. Valencia has always been praised for gap power, and scouts have never confused his power with harboring some projection. In 2008, he hit 37 doubles, 5 triples and 15 home runs. In 2009, he hit 38 doubles, 4 triples and 14 home runs. While his home run rate (HR/FB) in 2010, including his Triple-A appearances, is something like 1.1%, I imagine that will stabilize some. Valencia has consistently hit doubles in 5.5 to 8.5% of his plate appearances, with the number going higher when his HR/FB goes lower. Whether you think he’ll hit seven home runs or 15, his likely extra-base hit total for a full season should consistently be 40-50.

Valencia is a good contact hitter, and sometimes, that can lead to a 14-for-19 stretch. While discounting him for this hot streak is easy, I do think Valencia can become a pretty solid player. Something like a .350 wOBA and +2.5 defense is about 3 WAR, and given their recent performance at the position, Valencia is a nice extra piece for a competitive Twins ball club.