It is easy for the initial reaction to the prospect haul the Diamondbacks received from the Angels – Pat Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez, and a PTBNL – to be underwhelming. As my colleagues Matthew Carruth and Zach Sanders already detailed, it’s impossible to fully review this trade until the Player to be Named Later is, um, named. The assumption is that it’s likely to be a talented player – though not at the level of Mike Trout – and someone that was signed within the last 364 days. I’ll let others speculate who that might be (we’ll review him in this space when the trade is completed), and instead focus on the two newest Diamondbacks prospects.

Corbin was the Angels second-round pick in their loaded 2009 draft, signed and delivered via superscout Tom Kotchman. He struggled a bit in his year at Chipola Junior College, but at 6-foot-3 with a good blend of command and projection, he was worth the risk as the Angels sixth pick. Corbin spent short-season ball last year playing for Kotchman in the Pioneer League, putting up a 5.05 ERA boosted by an unsustainably high BABIP. Both in college and in the Pioneer League, Corbin was homer-happy, but he made up for it with good strikeout-to-walk rates.

This offseason, in ranking him the 22nd-best prospect in their system, Angels blog Halos Heavan likened Corbin to Joe Saunders, who is also headed to Arizona in the Haren deal. The comparison is not misguided, as they are the same build and throw their fastballs at similar velocities (Corbin’s fastball is inconsistent, but their average velocity would be near equal). The hope is that Corbin can duplicate Saunders’ command and groundball tendencies (1.51 GO/AO in High-A), but also develop his offspeed stuff enough to become a better pitcher.

There is reason to believe an improvement is a possibility. Corbin has made significant headway with the development of his change-up, and as such, has had a lot of success in the California League against right-handed hitters (.241/.301/.386 against). His strikeout rate has jumped from 6.5 in nine Midwest League starts to 9.5 in High-A. Arizona fans must hope the surge in strikeouts is the result of an improvement in his breaking ball, which was pretty rudimentary when he was drafted. The possibility of three plus pitches from the left side is a really nice starter kit, especially for an organization that needs young pitching badly.

The other addition, Rafael Rodriguez, isn’t nearly as exciting. Two months away from his 26th birthday, Rodriguez is a fungible bullpen arm with little potential to improve. Rodriguez is at his best when he’s generating a lot of groundballs and pounding the lower half of the strike zone. He did so successfully in the Major Leagues last year — though his results weren’t good — but has a more pedestrian 1.46 GO/AO ratio this year in the Pacific Coast League.His stuff isn’t swing-and-miss in the slightest, managing a 3.03 K/9 in his limited 33 innings of big league work.

While I’ll make good on my promise not to judge Arizona’s haul in full until after the trade is completed, there’s no question the final prospect in this deal will need to be a good one. Corbin is a B prospect, Rodriguez is a D, and Dan Haren is worth more than that.

UPDATE: The Arizona Republic has reported the Player To Be Named Later in this deal is Tyler Skaggs, the 40th overall pick from the 2009 draft, currently posting a 3.61 ERA through 19 Midwest League appearances.

It’s certainly interesting, and most likely not coincidental, that the Diamondbacks acquired three left-handed pitchers in the same deal. Skaggs is the southpaw with the most potential. Like Corbin, he’s lanky and projectable, but the opinions of most is that Skaggs will be the one with the most velocity in the end. Similar to Corbin, Skaggs is running a reverse platoon split (.828 vs LHH, .631 vs. RHH) this season. Skaggs is a specific player Arizona has targeted: a lefty with room to grow, with command of his moving fastball, and the seeds of three pitches already planted. There aren’t a whole lot of guys in the minors with Skaggs’ skillset, and Arizona added two in one night. There is something to be said for Arizona’s intentions.

There is also something interesting happening at the scouting level of the Diamondbacks organization: after spending their first eight picks on pitchers in last June’s draft, Arizona converted its biggest trade chip into four more pitchers. Clearly, this is a team that believes in the long-term health of their offense — because of the youth of their offensive core, presumably, but also because their stadium is always going to support the hitters. Developing some good, cheap pitching is an onus that this scouting department has certainly placed on themselves.

There are two narrative roads diverging from the USA Baseball collegiate national team after the club’s first two games: Anthony Rendon, and everything else. The Rice third baseman, and the consensus top player in an obscenely deep draft class broke his ankle on Wednesday, ending his summer (and fall) in the national team’s first game against foreign competition. Rendon, the Baseball America Player of the Year, was coming off a spring where he hit .394/.530/.801, securing his place as college baseball’s most well-rounded offensive prospect since, at least, Alex Gordon.

This is the second injury to the same ankle for Rendon, who didn’t play summer baseball a year ago after tearing ligaments in Rice’s Super Regional. Aaron Fitt reported that Rice head coach Wayne Graham is hopeful that Rendon will be ready on Opening Day for the Owls next spring, but the rising junior has yet to even undergo surgery. Rendon looked bound for the same Hype Machine that touted Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper as Generational Talents, but now, unexpectedly, he’ll enter next spring with something to prove to scouts: his health. However, it’s unlikely that anyone will usurp Rendon at the top of the 2011 draft board before then.

Keith Law has rumored that Vanderbilt third baseman Jason Esposito, a projected first-rounder himself, could replace Rendon on the national team roster.

This all stands to overshadow the other story out of USA Baseball Training Complex in Cary, North Carolina: this team is really good. In two games against the Korean National team, the USA has thrown a no-hitter and a two-hitter, led by the arms of Vanderbilt ace Sonny Gray and Oregon reliever Scott McGough. This is surely a team that would be competitive with the 2008 team that went a perfect 24-0 thanks to a ridiculous pitching staff that featured Mike Minor, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Leake, Andy Oliver and Kyle Gibson as its five innings leaders.

There is no question that Gray and fellow staff ace Gerrit Cole have the talent to belong in that group, and that’s to say nothing of UConn’s Matt Barnes or TCU’s Kyle Winkler, two other arms that drew plenty of praise during team trials in early July. I’d also be remiss not to mention Florida State’s Sean Gilmartin, who wasn’t in my 2011 Draft Pitcher Preview in June, but came to Cary with more velocity (up to 92 mph, reportedly) than I’d previously heard. This is a pitching staff that will make the offense’s transition to wooden bats an easy one.

On that side of this year’s team is a four-man outfield of potential 2011 first rounders: Jackie Bradley Jr. (South Carolina), Alex Dickerson (Indiana), Mikie Mahtook (LSU), George Springer (UConn). I wrote about all these players a couple weeks ago, but since then, it seems all except Mahtook have taken a substantial step forward. Bradley Jr. was a revelation during the College World Series, leading the Gamecocks to a national championship, and winning Tournament MVP along with innumerable plaudits from scouts. Dickerson and Springer spent some time in the Cape Cod League before USA trials started, and both were fantastic with wooden bats. Dickerson erased concerns that his big spring (.419/.472/.805) was because of a light schedule, and Springer continues to be the athletic Three True Outcome star of his class, a spot that helped Michael Choice get drafted in the top 10 this year.

The nation’s best players that don’t make the National team roster — or decline the opportunity to try out — are usually found in the Cape Cod League. That summer season has almost reached its halfway mark, and the All-Star Game is just 12 days away. Pitching has dominated as usual, with more than a few pitchers rising up draft boards: Jed Bradley (Georgia Tech), Tony Zych (Louisville), Michael Palazzone (Georgia), and Grayson Garvin (Vanderbilt), to name a few.

One pitcher, Anthony Ranaudo, isn’t worried about his draft status, but instead of convincing the Boston Red Sox that he’s worthy of top 10 money. Ranaudo entered this spring as a potential #1 pick for the June draft, but after a spring of injuries and ineffectiveness, dropped to Boston at 39th overall. Ranaudo’s bonus demands haven’t wavered, however, even with a 2011 draft class that threatens to impact his leverage. Choosing to prove his worth on the Cape, Ranaudo has been nothing short of brilliant: 29.2 innings over five starts without an earned run, with just 10 hits and eight walks allowed. Jim Callis has been adamant in his belief that Ranaudo will sign, and with each start, his demands look seemingly less unreasonable.

Finding offensive standouts is difficult, particularly now that Dickerson and Spinger have left the league. The most impressive performance is probably Hawaii’s Kolten Wong, hitting .333/.423/.438, and showing all five tools at times. In a small sample, Arizona State second baseman Zack MacPhee has been brilliant, reaching base at a .469 clip. The other standouts will be revealed in the coming weeks, but the list is certainly shorter than the pitchers.

While the injury to Rendon threatens to put a dark cloud over the summer news from the college baseball beat, he should be fine, and his draft class’ status among amateur scouts across the nation is only growing stronger.

While it’s fun to evaluate Alex Gonzalez vs. Yunel Escobar in a vacuum — and, inevitably, come out favoring Escobar — there were three minor league players involved in today’s Blue Jays-Braves trade. R.J. Anderson and Joe Pawlikowski have already tackled the deal from the perspective of each team, but I’m here to detail the analysis on the three players currently in the minor leagues: Jo-Jo Reyes, Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky.

Reyes, so far as I can tell, is the only player that has ranked as a top 10 prospect (BA #8 pre-2007). He is also the only one that no longer qualifies as a prospect, and the only one with a failed Major League track record. That came in 2008, when Reyes’ 3-11, 5.81 stats actually appeared far worse than his 4.61 xFIP. In his 194 inning career (where he’s nearing in on 2 years of service time completed), Reyes has consistently had a lower xFIP than ERA, thanks to a 15.5 HR/FB%.

Home runs weren’t always a problem for Reyes in the minor leagues, but between his Major League stints and his current run at Triple-A (5.70 ERA, 1.5 HR/9, 17.0 HR/FB%), it’s an important indicator going forward. His long-time bugaboo, command, is improving: 2010 is currently his fourth-straight minor league season improving his BB/9 ratio. He’s pretty much a power pitcher without the power: strikeouts, home runs, and walks all come at high rates, with his ultimate success hinging on command.

In terms of pedigree, it’s outrageous to think that 5-foot-7, 155-pound Tim Collins could rank ahead of Reyes, a big-bodied former second-round pick. This is the type of thinking that Collins has long been susceptible to, and the thinking he’s consistently outpaced. In 130 games at the minor league level over four years, Collins has a 2.40 ERA, 13.6 K/9 ratio and 5.9 H/9 ratio. He lives in the strike zone, and brings deception and sneaky velocity everytime he touches the mound.

I suppose it’s possible that Collins touches the Majors this season — he’s maxed out at what he’s going to become, so it would be defensible — but the Braves bullpen is so good, I sort of doubt it. Instead, he should get the opportunity to replace Reyes at Triple-A Gwinnett, because he’s passed the Double-A test (currently riding a streak of 17 consecutive scoreless innings). It’s hard to think that Collins has a long career ahead of him, but naysaying this guy has essentially become pointless.

The least visible part of this trade is Tyler Pastornicky — he has neither a Major League record nor a freakish pedigree. But I doubt the Braves make this trade without him; we know how good that scouting department operates, and they wouldn’t be the first to fancy Pastornicky as a sleeper. A fifth round pick out of a Florida high school in 2008 (drafted one pick before the Braves), Pastornicky has great bat control, sporting a career strikeout rate of just 13.8%. However, his average is just .264 and his ISO just .089 for his career, so he clearly has a ways to go in developing strength and power.

At just 20 years old in the Florida State League, a .258/.348/.376 batting line is more than defensible. He’s upped his walk rate this season (11.8 BB%) and he’s still been a nuisance on the basepaths, following last year’s 57-steal season with a 24-for-31 mark this year. Pastornicky is problem a second baseman down the road, but he’s improved enough at shortstop to maintain some believers about his future there.

Because of their starting pitching depth, Jo-Jo Reyes doesn’t mean a lot to the Braves — they would have traded him in for future reliever Tim Collins without the other pieces involved. But to add a potential long-term replacement for Escobar (on top of the short-term replacement that Alex Gonzalez offers), there’s a chance the Braves don’t think this is as short-sighted as many analysts do.

If we are to assume the Yankees reported offer – Jesus Montero, David Adams, Zach McAllister – was on the table, it would follow that the Mariners brass ultimately made a not-so-simple calculation, and ended up with this: Justin Smoak > Jesus Montero. The comparison is a significant stance because it runs counter to the majority of offseason opinions. Only ESPN’s Keith Law, among analysts I can find, ranked Smoak over Montero this winter.

And not much has changed since then; Montero has less-than expected numbers at 20 years old in Triple-A, Smoak had less-than expected numbers at 23 years old in Arlington. Ultimately, I can pinpoint three significant reasons that Jack Zduriencik used to reach their Rangers-favored conclusion. Two are reasons that have been (and will be) well-documented elsewhere:

1. The Mariners don’t believe Montero to be a viable option at catcher, even in a diminished capacity. As a corollary, they believe Justin Smoak’s long-lauded defense at first will outpace Montero’s eventual contributions there.
2. The understanding that Safeco Field would be a better fit for the switch-hitting Smoak than the right-handed Montero. This is no revelation: “Know Thy Park” is practically a commandment of front-office work.

Yes, these were surely factors that ultimately supported the M’s decision. But I think there is a third, significant reason that you won’t hear talked about much that led to choosing Smoak over Montero:

The Mariners evaluate potential commodities from the context of potential performance during team-controlled seasons only.

The two players in question have close-enough offensive profiles that I don’t think you could make the case for trading the 20-year-old Montero for the 23-year-old Smoak (in a vacuum). Montero has a decent chance to be in the Major Leagues next season, and thus, should have the longer Major League career. But if Montero does play in the Majors next season — and considering he’s hit .312/.377/.550 since June 7, I submit that it’s likely (especially if he had gone to Seattle) — his team-controlled seasons will come at ages 21-26. The remainder of Smoak’s will come at ages 24-28.

Seattle, I think, is betting that Montero will take a couple years to find his footing in the Major Leagues. I don’t think they would question his potential, just gambling that he’s most likely to reach it after he hits free agency. They look at a guy like Paul Konerko, who before the season, I listed as a nice median outcome for Montero’s career. Konerko, from ages 21-27, hit a combined .279/.342/.470, posting an OPS just 8% above league average. Since then, he’s hit .278/.363/.513, showing more patience and power, with an OPS+ of 125.

The opposite part of that argument is Miguel Cabrera, who is clearly the top-end of what Montero could become. Miggy hit 33 home runs at age 21, and was a cumulative .311/.383/.542 through age 26. At age 20, before being called up, Cabrera had a similar number of plate appearances in Double-A that Montero has had in Triple-A. In the Southern League, Cabrera hit .365/.429/.609, with 31 walks, 29 doubles and 10 home runs. In the International League, Montero is batting .252/.328/.415, with 33 walks, 19 doubles and 7 home runs.

The Mariners are essentially gambling on Montero to be more like Paul Konerko than Miguel Cabrera. And Smoak, meanwhile, will have the ages where most hitters hit their prime at the tail end of his arbitration-eligible seasons.

Montero is a great prospect, but almost every part of his game is still projection. The power is still of the gap variety. He’s yet to play his Major League position. Smoak has struggled in the big leagues, but the skills are there. Defense, patience, power. The Mariners don’t care whether Jesus Montero or Justin Smoak will have a better career, like Baseball America does. They care about which would provide the best value while still coming cheap.

On Wednesday, I wrote this on Twitter: “When Jack Z was scouting director, he had consistent interests in big power, big velocity, and up-the-middle athletes. Lee suitors, start there.” Power was certainly the calling card behind the Yankees and the Rangers offers, as both Montero and Justin Smoak appealed to Zduriencik’s tendencies. But while I’ll talk about those centerpieces tomorrow, I do want to offer some thoughts on the newest members of the Mariners farm system.

Blake Beavan was once a big velocity guy, probably the type that Zduriencik liked when he was the Brewers scouting director. But of the three preferences listed above, velocity is probably the one that carried over the least when Jack Z made his move to Seattle. This is because of Jarrod Washburn and Jason Vargas, Doug Fister and Ryan Franklin. It’s because Zduriencik and his front office realize that pitchers don’t really need Jeremy Jeffress-like velocity to succeed in Safeco Field. They just need to not give up free passes to first base.

And this type of player, the strike thrower, is what Blake Beavan has become. He’s in the low-90s again, but velocity isn’t really important, because he’s not blowing fastballs by people. He’s just trying to paint the corners. In some sense, with his curveball and change-up and build, he’s Doug Fister without the rarely-used slider. And Fister has thrown strikes with “just” 64.7% of his pitches this year; Beavan was at 69.7% in his 110 innings at Double-A.

The change-up is better than the curveball for Beavan, which is a good thing, because getting out left-handed hitters is the more important task in Safeco. Still, the Mariners need to improve both those offerings. If Fister’s K/9 went from 6.6 in the minors to 4.6 with the Mariners, Beavan’s 5.2 career K/9 in the minor leagues could go to some ugly places if his curveball doesn’t improve.

If Beavan is the Fister in this deal, then Josh Lueke is the Mark Lowe. Granted, Lowe would be insulted to be compared to Lueke given the former’s rap sheet, but we’re talking baseball only here. And Lowe is a guy who has averaged 95.4 miles per hour with his fastball in the big leagues, and posted a 7.9 K/9 thanks in no small part to a knockout slider. And that’s the arsenal that has Lueke succeeding this year – to the tune of a 14.6 K/9. Lueke is 25 years old, so he’s close to being as good as he’s going to get. The Mariners, however, are certainly more likely to get something out of him than their 2008 first-round pick.

The final piece of the Mariners haul, the true throw-in, is second baseman Matt Lawson. While the drop-off from David Adams (in the proposed Yankees deal) to Lawson is significant, it would be unfair to think of things that way. Lawson, like Beavan and Lueke, is a good bet to be a small piece to a Major League team. Seattle will likely work on his versatility straight-away, because Lawson is ticketed to a Double-A team that has a stalwart at second base.

This is good news for Lawson, who will need versatility to hold down a Major League career as a bench player. He’ll also need to continue this trend of crushing left-handed pitching, as he went from a reverse platoon split last year to smacking around southpaws to the tune of .351/.413/.640 this year in 126 plate appearances. Lauded for his glove and patient at the plate, he certainly fits this new Mariner regime well.

Ultimately, that’s what is so unsurprising about this deal: it’s filled with players that make a ton of sense, given either Zduriencik’s prior interests or the qualities that tend to succeed in this organization. If the focus of the Mariners has shifted towards success when Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders peak, then this deal may have found the fourth starter, seventh-inning reliever and 24th man for those teams.

The Futures Game was – as far as a competition – just what we thought it would be: a one-sided affair thanks to a stale structure and unfortunate roster choices. However, as an opportunity to see the people I write about (a rare opportunity for this Chicagoan), it was also a lot of fun. In that vein, I’m turning to a straight-old notes format here, starting with the five best tools I saw in Anaheim:

The U.S. Team Speed. One look at the roster and this was obvious; any team with Desmond Jennings, Dee Gordon, Mike Trout, and Ben Revere can obviously fly. But this game gave the opportunity to see them fly. Trout reached base on two errors that his speed effected, logged an infield single (Keith Law tweeted “Trout’s run time to first matched the fastest I’ve ever gotten from a right handed hitter.”), and turned a routine single into a double. Gordon, who is the skinniest highly-ranked prospect I have ever seen, can certainly get down the line in a hurry. Jennings stole second with ease, and Revere made a bang-bang play out of a routine grounder. Speed is the tool with the least transference to actual baseball, but it might be the most fun to see live.

Fastballs, plural. If speed is a hitter’s most easily displayed tool, the fastball is its pitching equivalent. We saw a lot of fastballs today – something north of 80%, without question – and here is who stuck out, in order of appearance.

This is my final Futures Game preview, before Dave Cameron and I head to California to get a look at these players. Previously, I have written about the World offense, and the United States team, both offense and pitching staff. Today, we close with the World pitching staff.

Henderson Alvarez | RHP | Age 20 | Toronto Blue Jays | High-A (FSL)
18.7 K% | 5.2 BB% | 0.6 HR/9 | 1.64 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Alvarez is going to come out firing his sinking fastball, which he commands well, and now can enter the mid-90s with. The far more interesting development will be his secondary pitches: a guy allowing a batting line of .364/.423/.486 to left-handed hitters surely has work to do on his changeup, and he’s never received raves for his breaking ball.

What he profiles as: Right now, it’s a reliever. There’s a lot of value in a guy that brings velocity, sink, and command, and if we see a velocity spike on Sunday — really the first time the Blue Jays will have seen him in that capacity — it could plant a seed in their head. Before that decision is made, though, they’ll continue to work on his offspeed stuff.

Simon Castro | RHP | Age 22 | San Diego Padres | Double-A (Texas)
24.4 K% | 7.7 BB% | 0.4 HR/9 | 1.36 GO/AO

This has been a bit of a weird season for Castro. On May 23, his ERA stood at 1.75, his GO/AO ratio was 2.18, his K/9 was 7.19, and he had allowed three home runs in 51 innings. Since then, Castro hasn’t been bad, but he’s been different: a 4.24 ERA, 0.63 GO/AO, more than a strikeout per inning and just one homer allowed in 34 innings.

The real Castro is something far closer to the latter version: a true flyball pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. This is hardly a bad thing when you profile to pitch at PETCO Park, as he’ll definitely see an up-tick in his HR/FB numbers when he moves past Double-A. I can’t wait to see him and his slider on Sunday.

Jeurys Familia | RHP | Age 20 | New York Mets | High-A (FSL)
26.3 K% | 15.7 BB% | 0.3 HR/9 | 1.59 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: If Familia pitches — and I’m guessing that’s no sure thing since he threw yesterday — we will see a lot of fastballs. The great U.S. offense is likely to draw a few walks off Familia, as he’s the most wild pitcher in this game. He’ll pitch into the mid-90s with a heavy fastball, but he doesn’t really know where it’s going.

What he profiles as: A reliever, if a Major Leaguer at all. It’s hard to believe that some pitching instructor can’t help Familia harness his stuff, but it wouldn’t be the first time it didn’t work out.

Trystan Magnuson | RHP | Age 25 | Toronto Blue Jays | Double-A (Eastern)
23.2 K% | 4.0 BB% | 0.2 HR/9 | 1.33 GO/AO

The pride of Marc Hulet and his fellow Canadian baseball fanatics, Magnuson was a first-round pick by the Blue Jays out of Louisville. He’s now a competent middle relief prospect, daunting if more for his size (6-foot-7) than his stuff. This is the problem I have with the Futures Game — more concerned with meeting some country quota rather than bringing us the game’s future. Oops, sorry Marc.

Hector Noesi | RHP | Age 23 | New York Yankees | A+ / AA
9.2 K/9 | 1.5 BB/9 | 0.7 HR/9

He doesn’t have the same kind of funk, but at this point, Noesi is beginning to remind me of Yusmeiro Petit. They are both little dudes that just kept succeeding in the minor leagues, but without a lot of backing from scouts. Noesi trades some better movement for a little less deception, and now that he’s dominating Double-A (23.8 K%, 4.8 BB%), people are beginning to wonder if we were all wrong about Noesi. However, I think Sunday will show that at the end of the day, he’s pretty unexciting. And when he gets to Yankee Stadium, balls are going to start leaving the yard with more frequency. Because, while it once was, comping Yusmeiro Petit (5.44 career FIP) is no longer a compliment.

Stolmy Pimentel | RHP | Age 20 | Boston Red Sox | High-A (Carolina)
17.8 K% | 7.4 BB% | 0.7 HR/9 | 1.42 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Pimentel is better visually than his numbers would indicate. We could see 93-95 mph in a short inning’s work, and he’ll mix in a curveball and changeup. The strength of those two pitches is pretty inconsistent, and is represented by the difference between his starts on May 15 and 27 (two six-inning no hitters) and his start on June 26 (10 H, 8 ER in 2.1 IP).

What he profiles as: This has been a bit of a disappointing year for Pimentel, because while he’s had those wildly varying starts listed above, his most common result has been something like 3 runs allowed in 5 innings. His strikeouts have been down and his walks have been up of late, and some bad performances have resulted. Sunday will really answer the question: Is something wrong with Stolmy Pimentel?

Eduardo Sanchez | RHP | Age 21 | St. Louis Cardinals | AA / AAA
9.1 K/9 | 2.9 BB/9 | 0.9 HR/9

While Sanchez will be fun to watch — got to love the 5-foot-11 guys that might touch 98 mph — he isn’t exactly an inspired choice. Sanchez has a chance to help the Cardinals in the second half, as his fastball/slider combination is pretty good. A scoreless inning at the Futures Game wouldn’t be a huge surprise. But there were better options out there, and future set-up men aren’t what this game is about.

Julio Teheran | RHP | Age 19 | Atlanta Braves | A- / A+
10.5 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 0.5 HR/9

What an inning will look like: Well, it will look really good, because this is the inspired choice this game is all about. Teheran is in the short discussion for the best pitcher in the minor leagues, and I can’t imagine how his stuff will play up in an inning. I expect the fastball to be 95-98 mph, and he should dazzle with his curveball and changeup. Teheran is a reason to watch this game.

What he profiles as: I know it’s boring to say a future ace and move on, but that’s really it. Good things happen to people that have feel and command for a 95 mph fastball and a plus (or plus-plus) changeup.

Alex Torres | LHP | Age 22 | Tampa Bay Rays | Double-A (Southern)
29.9 K% | 12.7 BB% | 0.4 HR/9 | 1.67 GO/AO

It took an injury to get Torres to the Futures Game, and I’m glad he’s here. He’s one of the more unique pitchers that will be in Anaheim, because he can throw any pitch in any count, but more poignantly, he can throw it anywhere. Torres is wild, but while effective now, it needs controlling before he makes it to the Major Leagues. Perhaps something resembling the career path of Brian Fuentes is in play, but considering the Rays pitching depth, they can take the time to spend a few years working on that command.

Philippe Valiquette | LHP | Age 23 | Cincinnati Reds | AA / AAA
7.1 K/9 | 5.0 BB/9 | 0.2 HR/9

If this Canadian southpaw had a different name, would he be planning a trip to Orange county this weekend? With that said, I need to catch a flight. More from Anaheim this weekend!

This is a long-delayed continuation of my series previewing the Futures Game rosters. We have seen the American pitchers and the World hitters. Today, the dangerous and powerful American offense.

Hank Conger | C | Los Angeles Angels | Age 22 | Triple-A (PCL)
.275 AVG / .375 OBP / .408 SLG | 38 BB / 37 K | 278 PA

It’s been a slow and steady development for Conger, because while his OPS numbers have dropped every season for three years, he’s actually a better prospect now than when he hit .303/.333/.517 in the California League. His contact skills are still very good, but with a career-high showing in the walks column, Conger’s become a very tough out. The power is settling in at Major League average, so the big question — the only question — is whether the defense at catcher is good enough.

Austin Romine | C | New York Yankees | Age 21 | Double-A (Eastern)
.286 AVG / .368 OBP / .432 SLG | 33 BB / 59 K | 302 PA

I sort of wondered before the season if Austin Romine and Jesus Montero had closer likely outcomes than we were giving them credit for. Montero is probably a first baseman, and in the Yankees organization, that means probably a DH. Romine, on the other hand, will stick behind the plate, though his ghastly 18% rate of throwing out baserunners this year isn’t encouraging. He’ll need to improve that to convince me, and more importantly, Yankees brass, that he’s Jorge Posada’s successor and Gary Sanchez’ placeholder.

Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland Indians | Age 21 | Double-A (Eastern)
.275 AVG / .342 OBP / .424 SLG | 20 BB / 36 K | 284 PA

I called out Chisenhall when I did my series on the history of first-round third baseman, which found that, without fail, the successful first round draftees at this position hit in Double-A. When I wrote the article, Chisenhall wasn’t, his OPS hanging around .700. But after a return from injury, Chisenhall showed some power in June, so I’m not writing anybody off yet. The juice in his bat — which I’ll only have batting practice to gauge — is the storyline going forward.

Drew Cumberland | SS | San Diego Padres | Age 21 | A+ / AA
.360 AVG / .396 OBP / .516 SLG | 16 BB / 41 K | 314 PA

The last time I saw Cumberland was when he was a high school rising senior at the East Coast Showcase. I liked him, and 10 months later, I wrote this: “Cumberland was on another level during infield practice in Wilmington, showing natural actions at shortstop that should keep him at the position. Cumberland is extremely athletic and has good bat speed,and while he won’t hit for much power, I had his batting practice ranked in my top five at the event.” He’s been oft-injured since then, but it seems he is much the same player — patience is the last thing missing from his game.

Danny Espinosa | SS | Washington Nationals | Age 23 | Double-A (Eastern)
.252 AVG / .330 OBP / .427 SLG | 27 BB / 74 K | 323 PA

The long line of Long Beach State shortstops extends to Espinosa, who burst onto the scene with a big Carolina League season a year ago, and is now settling into the player he’ll become. His contact skills are not good, and as a result, he won’t hit more than .260 in the big leagues consistently. But I hope he’s finding out the importance of walks — his 8.4% rate this year is down from 12.8% last year, which represents 35 really important OBP points. The power in his bat is above average for the position, and he’ll stick at shortstop, so he’s a better prospect than you’d think.

Dee Gordon | SS | Los Angeles Dodgers | Age 22 | Double-A (Southern)
.276 AVG / .329 OBP / .356 SLG | 20 BB / 43 K | 358 PA

In fact, for all the praise that Gordon receives, Espinosa might be a better prospect than this Dodger. Gordon is more exciting, sure, with blinding speed that could very well translate to 50 (or more) steals in the Major Leagues. But the value of that, relative to Espinosa’s obvious power advantage, is minimal. Where Gordon has a chance to close the gap is with his contact ability. His BABIP should be higher than .310 — it needs to be higher — because he’s a guy that will have to hit .300 consistently.

Grant Green | SS | Oakland Athletics | Age 22 | High-A (California)
.320 AVG / .370 OBP / .479 SLG | 24 BB / 75 K | 364 PA

Green was a pick that no one seemed to hate from last year’s draft — he had entered the spring as a potential top 3 pick, so the A’s got real value. But I think we all started second-guessing ourselves when his OPS stood at .700, in the California League, on May 29. Since then, Green has hit .376/.418/.648, and his numbers are far more reflecting his potential. The plate approach needs work, and as a result, he always will be susceptible to the slumps that plagued him for the season’s first two months. I do wonder which West Coast shortstop, Espinosa or Green, will show better pop in BP.

Eric Hosmer | 1B | Kansas City Royals | Age 20 | High-A (Carolina)
.356 AVG / .431 OBP / .551 SLG | 41 BB / 33 K | 350 PA

Because these articles always run long, and because Royals minor league fans have enough going for them, I’m going to keep this short. It’s because I really want to look at Hosmer more in detail next week. Specifically, I want to try and investigate how often highly regarded first baseman have looked like hell in Year 1, managed to keep scouts believing, and validated them in Year 2 and beyond. Article forthcoming…

Logan Morrison | 1B | Florida Marlins | Age 22 | Triple-A (PCL)
.324 AVG / .430 OBP / .514 SLG | 34 BB / 27 K | 223 PA

That walk-to-strikeout ratio is inspiring, isn’t it? The Marlins have a really interesting decision on their hands, as Gaby Sanchez has been very good in his rookie season in Miami. But no one doubts that Morrison is a better long-term commodity. The options: 1) trade Sanchez, 2) platoon. The latter works, as Sanchez has a .978 OPS this year vs. LHPs in 89 PA, following an OPS of 1.007 in 105 PA’s last year. But limiting Morrison in his development against southpaws this early seems foolish, too. What about playing Morrison at 1B vs. RHP and in LF vs. LHP, with Chris Coghlan getting the platoon treatment? Because, if I know anything, it’s that Morrison is a better prospect than last year’s Rookie of the Year.

Mike Moustakas | 3B | Kansas City Royals | Age 21 | Double-A (Texas)
.355 AVG / .417 OBP / .705 SLG | 25 BB / 41 K | 288 PA

I worked for MiLB.com in 2008, and during my summer there, toured the Midwest League with regularity. I probably saw 80% of the players in that league take batting practice, and only one looked like a big league power hitter: Moustakas. I know the bat is going to play, but the question is how he’ll look in infield practice.

Domonic Brown | RF | Philadelphia Phillies | Age 22 | AA / AAA
.332 AVG / .398 OBP / .622 SLG | 32 BB / 60 K | 322 PA

Before the season, I wrote up Brown, and concluded with this: “[The question is] essentially: does Brown’s power develop, or doesn’t it?” The answer is a resounding yes, as we’ve seen Brown develop each of the last two years right before our eyes. In that article, I also listed the 25 players that Baseball America has ranked that stood 6-foot-3 or taller (Brown is 6-foot-5). With this year, it looks like Brown might follow the higher path of comps: Juan Gonzalez, Tim Salmon, Vlad Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, etc.

Brett Jackson | CF | Chicago Cubs | Age 21 | A+ / AA
.320 AVG / .426 OBP / .527 SLG | 49 BB / 70 K | 357 PA

I wasn’t the only one that fancied Jackson as a tweener the day the Cubs drafted him, but I’m probably the happiest of that bunch to admit I might be wrong. Jackson has been on an epic tear of late, gaining praise as a line drive machine. He’ll need to be, as the strikeouts are going to keep his average on the low end. But with very good patience and more power than I thought, Jackson would probably work in a corner spot if centerfield doesn’t stick. Hopefully I’ll get to see what range he brings to the table on Sunday.

Desmond Jennings | OF | Tampa Bay Rays | Age 23 | Triple-A (International)
.295 AVG / .369 OBP / .419 SLG | 23 BB / 39 K | 245 PA

If I know anything, it’s that this is going to be one special defensive outfield on the United States side, as Mike Trout in center, Jennings in right and Revere in left would cover an insane amount of ground. Jennings has been working on his outfield versatility in Durham, as it’s unclear whether he’ll replace B.J. Upton in center, Carl Crawford in left, or make Ben Zobrist move out of right field full-time. Either way, he can’t be denied much longer.

Ben Revere | CF/LF | Minnesota Twins | Age 22 | Double-A (Eastern)
.307 AVG / .380 OBP / .361 SLG | 26 BB / 23 K | 276 PA

In the interest of full disclosure, Revere is probably the nicest ballplayer I have ever interviewed, and a guy you can’t help but root for. His limitations are obvious when you see his diminutive build, as this is a guy that isn’t going to hit Major League home runs. But you can’t strike him out, so I’m almost as confident that he’ll hit .300 in the big leagues, as well. The questions, then, are how often he’ll walk, and how good his defense will be. All signs point to the latter being fantastic, so don’t close the book on Revere — multiple seasons replicating the 2009s had by Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Sweeney are in play.

Mike Trout | CF | Los Angeles Angels | Age 18 | Low-A (Midwest)
.364 AVG / .448 OBP / .531 SLG | 41 BB / 50 K | 355 PA

The assumption by most is that Domonic Brown is the #1 prospect in minor league baseball. Considering that he hasn’t disappointed at all this year — even improving by some respects — and all the players ranked before him have graduated to the Majors, it’s a fair assessment, but I’m not sure it respects just how historic a season Mike Trout is having. To show that kind of patience, to steal 42 bases in 50 attempts, to show power potential, all at the age of 18 in the Midwest League — this is uncharted territory. There is no one I look forward to seeing this weekend more.

Tomorrow, before I jet-set off to Los Angeles, I finish this much-spread-out series. Thanks for your patience.

The accolades being handed out to baseball’s current rookie class have been impressive — the best rookie class ever, the Year of the Rookie, etc. For prospect mavens and scouts alike, the successes of Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward and Carlos Santana are validations that baseball’s future can be predicted to some degree. However, alongside that touted triumvirate of rookies are Tyler Colvin and Brennan Boesch, two smooth-swinging lefties currently batting a combined .310/.358/.586 in 387 plate appearances. Neither was ever a top 100 prospect. Colvin was a first-round pick that many (including myself) criticized; Boesch was a guy I undershot on the day of his debut.

It’s easy to say that these are two guys that we missed, but I’m also hoping we can learn something from it. What traits do they have, or did they show in the minors, that we can look for the next time around? After all, both are former highly regarded college guys, have some swing-and-miss in their pretty left-handed swings, and have body types that intrigue scouts. You trade a little Colvin speed for some more Boesch power, but we have some undeniable similarities as a jumping off point.

So my first question was this: is this player, the left-handed slugger pegged as a platoon player, something we have underrated before? My findings were very telling. I started with this query in the Baseball-Reference Play Index: what left-handed hitters not ranked in a Baseball America Top 100 have had a .200 ISO in their first chance at regular playing time (150 plate appearances)? Here are the findings from 1995-2009:

Chris Duncan – 2006
Garrett Jones – 2009
Matt Joyce – 2008
Jay Gibbons – 2001
Andy Tracy – 2000
Jody Gerut – 2003
Mike Jacobs – 2005-2006
Chris Davis – 2008
Brad Wilkerson – 2002
Eric Hinske – 2002
Luke Scott – 2006
Chris Richard – 2000
Brian Daubach – 1999
Erubiel Durazo – 1999
Jon Nunnally – 1995
Mark Johnson – 1995
Matt Luke – 1998
Armando Rios – 1999

Overall, we have 18 players, with their seasons covering a total of 6,290 plate appearances. Cumulatively, in their first chance at regular playing time, this left-handed group hit .274/.352/.512. Only Luke Scott had a better OPS+ than where Boesch stands currently, but seven players finished above where Colvin’s 127 OPS+ resides. Colvin isn’t far from the group average, and when both players see some second half regression, I’m sure they’ll fit cleanly in this group.

But with the 1.5 dozen players listed above, what they did as rookies is equally interesting to what they did the rest of their careers: .254/.335/.444. This is a 10% drop-off in OPS, and a 20% drop-off in ISO. Look at the list: these are not players that blossomed into stars after good rookie campaigns. Guys like Daubach, Wilkerson, Hinske and Gibbons would go on to fight for a spot between the starting lineup and the bench. Others like Nunnally, Luke, Tracy would barely have big league careers after. You could count the number of 500+ PA seasons this group achieved after their early career breakouts on two hands. Luke Scott is becoming the group’s best success story.

Part of me wonders if there is some market inefficiency to be found here — that left-handed minor league sluggers are geared for some immediate big league success before teams start to figure out their holes. Perhaps they are a group that peaks a little earlier than most. But that would be ignoring a group I’m sure is even larger than 18 — the left-handed sluggers given a shot in the big leagues that failed. Colvin and Boesch, two players that combined to hit .267/.311/.402 in 1,400 plate appearances in A-ball, are merely in a fraternity of guys that were unfazed in the Majors. In time, their weaknesses will be exposed, and while retaining some value going forward (as the bench/platoon players we pegged them for), it’s unlikely either will be a good bet for regular playing time.

Or, perhaps, I should just let this tried-and-true method speak for itself:

Name        PA   2B   3B   HR   BB   SO
Player A   229   15    3   12   16   44
Player B   239   14    2   14   17   40

Player A led the Eastern League with 28 home runs the year before he produced those counting stats in his Major League debut. Player B finished third in the Texas League with 29 home runs the year before he produced those counting stats in his Major League debut. Player A is Brennan Boesch. Player B is Chris Richard.

Boesch and Tyler Colvin have earned regular jobs for 2011, but those should come with tempered expectations. Their numbers are as good as they’re going to be.

Like Carlos Zambrano, I have reached my boiling point with the Cubs organization. There have been worse seasons than this one, but rarely has one seemed this disappointing. Perhaps that’s because one look at this roster and you realize: this modern era of Cubs success, 2003-2008, is over. An aging roster filled with bad salaries isn’t going to blossom into playoff caliber anytime soon. As I see it, there are two, and only two, moves that the Cubs can make:

1) Fire everybody.
2) Rebuild.

Preferably in that order. I have many written positive words about Jim Hendry, about Tim Wilken, about the Cubs front office in general over the last decade or so, as Hendry helped engineer an era of competitiveness. His mistakes were usually more subtle — the failure to sign Player X, Y or Z — although he’ll be remembered for ill-fated contracts given to Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano, and perhaps unfairly, Milton Bradley. But more, with talented rosters that were sometimes chosen by pundits to win a title, this front office and coaching staff never broke the curse that haunts the organization.

The Cubs now need a new leader, one with less personal ties to the assets in this organization, to begin anew. A person that would start with these moves:

1. Trade Ted Lilly and Kosuke Fukudome. This was the main point Jack Moore made in his “What Should the Cubs do” piece from last week, and since then, Lilly only lowered his ERA. The difference between that number (3.28) and his xFIP (4.63) is now staggering, and he represents the most typical mid-season trade chip the Cubs have. Trading Fukudome would mean eating salary in 2011, but if that means acquiring a decent prospect, it’s worth it.

2. Put Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano on waivers in August. This won’t work. But desperate times…

3. Keep Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez. This rebuild is not geared at success in 2011, so selling low won’t do any good. The draft compensation from Lee’s next signing will likely surpass his 2010 midseason trade value. Ramirez is a sure bet to pick up his $14.6 million player option for 2011, so I’m not sure you could trade him now anyway. But keeping him does allow for a bounce-back next season (while adding a year of development for Josh Vitters), which would allow you to trade him July 31, 2011.

4. Trade Marlon Byrd and Carlos Silva. Credit to Hendry where it’s due, as he may have created two assets out of thin air here. Byrd has been extremely valuable, and is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2012. A team like Atlanta, with their outfield problems and limited finances, would surely part with a good young player for Byrd. Silva’s value on the open market is a little less transparent, but given the Mariners commitment to his salary, he’d only come at $4 million for this year and $6 million for next year, without accounting for what the Cubs might kick in, too.

5. Trade Carlos Marmol. This would be wildly unpopular given Marmol’s quest to shatter the K/9 single-season record. But relievers tend to be overvalued in midseason markets, and Marmol would offer a team 2.5 seasons of arbitration-controlled salaries. He would, semi-deservedly, attract the biggest haul of the bunch. The Cubs could also afford to be stingy with their demands, as he might bring in just as much this winter.

Without question, these moves would be met with scrutiny from Cubs fans and media alike, but they also exist the only chance this team has to compete in a couple years. Hopefully the new person in charge could handle easy decisions like getting rid of the Koyie Hill temptation, returning Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner to their rightful places in a rotation, riding the Tyler Colvin never-ending hot streak, etc. It shouldn’t be difficult.

Ownership groups are not remembered for the sponsors they land, or the renovations to bathrooms they finance. The Ricketts family must be decisive, and quickly, to salvage something from their inherited regime, and to ensure some eventual success.

Dear Mr. Ricketts: Fire them all. Start over. Faithfully, Bryan Smith.