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Futures Game Preview: The World Hitters

This is a continuation of my series reviewing the Futures Game rosters. Yesterday, we looked at the pitchers on the American squad. Now, we have the hitters they will face in Anaheim.

Chun Chen | C | Cleveland Indians | Age 21 | Low-A (Sally)
.314 AVG / .373 OBP / .539 SLG | 15 BB / 33 K | 215 PA

The Indians have been quiet players in the Asian market for awhile, but now they really have a symbol for the hard work in Chen. After two years in short-season ball, where Chen posted high walk rates and solid CS% numbers but little else, the Taiwanese is enjoying a very good full season debut. Chen has gap power and the defensive skills to stay behind the plate — given the positional adjustment that comes with, the Futures Game will be a nice coming-out-party for his prospect status.

Wilin Rosario | C | Colorado Rockies | Age 21 | Double-A (Texas)
.274 AVG / .328 OBP / .475 SLG | 13 BB / 42 K | 197 PA

Like Chen, no one questions Rosario’s ability to stay behind the plate — he’s posted a CS% above 40% in every season of his career. His offensive skills are still fairly raw, but he has some power in the bat, with the potential to hit about 15-20 home runs annually. Most likely, he’s a back-up catcher that provides the ability to hit lefties and provide some good defense.

Yonder Alonso | 1B/LF | Cincinnati Reds | Age 23 | AA/AAA

.245 AVG / .324 OBP / .368 SLG | 29 BB / 44 K | 293 PA

In my series on first-round picks, it was definitely clear that by the time Double-A rolls around, the good players usually separate themselves from the busts. This doesn’t bode well for Alonso, who has never posted an ISO above .194 at any level. Given his defensive limitations, his highly regarded prospect status is waning. He’s one I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Reds trade in a deadline deal.

Alex Liddi | 1B/3B | Seattle Mariners | Age 21 | Double-A (Southern)
.290 AVG / .359 OBP / .467 SLG | 24 BB / 64 K | 288 PA

After a .345/.411/.594 season in the bizarro world of High Desert (California League) last season, I thought Liddi might have an awful season in a tough West Tenn environment this year. But he’s held his own, and the reports are much better than the non-prospect tag I would have put on him when I saw the guy in 2007-2008. His road mark last year was .308/.351/.498, so he’s establishing himself as someone who will hit in that range. I look forward to see him in batting practice to see what projection might be left in that bat.

Brett Lawrie | 2B | Milwaukee Brewers | Age 20 | Double-A (Southern)

.300 AVG / .361 OBP / .497 SLG | 26 BB / 65 K | 319 PA

It seems like this was a season of many Low-A to Double-A aggressive assignments, and Lawrie is certainly handling his own in Huntsville. The question is never his bat and always his defense, and it will be a talking point in Anaheim, as he’s the only second baseman on this roster. Lawrie could stand to add a little more patience, but his overall hitting mechanics are very good for second base — the question is whether they’d be enough for left field.

Pedro Baez | 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers | Age 22 | High-A (California)
.277 AVG / .318 OBP / .398 SLG | 5 BB / 19 K | 89 PA

Probably the weirdest selection to the World roster, as Baez offers no great track record, prospect status, or even a unique country to add to the Countries Represented number. He’s a guy that has the potential to put on a show in batting practice, but he’s also a long-shot to make the big leagues. However, we don’t know a ton, because he’s been injured very often in his career.

Luis Jimenez | 3B | Los Angeles Angels | Age 22 | A- / A+
.303 AVG / .348 OBP / .488 SLG | 15 BB / 35 K | 268 PA

Another player coming off injury, as Jimenez missed the 2009 season after a breakout in the Pioneer League the previous season. It seems that he’s a third baseman in name only, and will face the one-win WAR negative adjustment that comes with a move to first base. He’s neither patient or powerful enough for that, so I don’t see a bright Major League future. He will be the hometown boy in Angel Stadium, however.

Pedro Ciriaco | SS | Arizona Diamondbacks | Age 24 | Triple-A (PCL)
.243 AVG / .264 OBP / .389 SLG | 7 BB / 37 K | 254 PA

Getting a roster together for the Futures Game is no easy team, as some teams will restrict a majority of their players, and in some places, you don’t have a lot of options. This is how someone like Ciriaco makes the team, as he isn’t the Future for the Arizona organization by any slice of the imagination. Hopefully the manager will realize this, and we’ll see the more exciting option (see below) for the majority of the game.

Hak-Ju Lee | SS | Chicago Cubs | Age 19 | Low-A (Midwest)
.271 AVG / .337 OBP / .340 SLG | 23 BB / 42 K | 279 PA

On this weak and relatively unexciting World offense, Lee is the one to watch. After a very slow start in his first 3 weeks, Lee is hitting .280/.355/.352 since April 26. His patience is a good sign, and Lee is already an excellent baserunner. His defense is flashy and exciting, but still mistake-prone. We’ll likely hear varying reports on his power potential, but he’ll be striving for average, if anything. This has been an excellent first half for the South Korean.

Ozzie Martinez | SS | Florida Marlins | Age 22 | Double-A (Southern)
.313 AVG / .408 OBP / .396 SLG | 39 BB / 33 K | 325 PA

He’s punchless, there’s no way around that. But Martinez has now bought into exercising patience at the plate, and when teamed with good contact skills, it leads to something like a .313 average and .408 on-base. The slugging isn’t ever going to come, and in Florida, neither is the shortstop position. He’s probably a utility infielder in the end, but there’s worse options out there for your vacant SS position.

Gorkys Hernandez | CF | Pittsburgh Pirates | Age 22 | Double-A (Eastern)
.250 AVG / .326 OBP / .320 SLG | 26 BB / 65 K | 291 PA

I feel like Hernandez has been around forever, but here he is, just 22 years old and in his second tour of Double-A. Hernandez is the pride and joy of the TotalZone defensive system, and it’s starting to seem more and more like his value might only lie there. The power isn’t coming, and he strikes out too much to sustain a high-and-empty batting average. He’s a fifth outfielder, and we’re starting to see that being traded twice wasn’t a coincidence.

Carlos Peguero | LF/RF | Seattle Mariners | Age 23 | Double-A (Southern)
.299 AVG / .388 OBP / .523 SLG | 32 BB / 83 K | 304 PA

Peguero going tit-for-tat with Mike Stanton for the minor league home run lead was fun in April, but it didn’t seem sustainable given his strikeout rate. His walk rate is commendable, and I think he might be able to hold down the strong side of a platoon some day. But it has to be mentioned that since May 3, Peguero has just six home runs and a .254/.359/.400 batting line. He should put on a batting practice show, however.

Francisco Peguero | CF/RF | SF Giants | Age 22 | High-A (California)
.276 AVG / .299 OBP / .427 SLG | 5 BB / 46 K | 235 PA

We’re getting late into this article, and it’s getting frustrating to continually portray pessimism with this roster. But I just can’t have a lot of faith in a guy with five walks in 235 plate appearances, and nine home runs in about 1,000 stateside plate appearances

Eury Perez | CF/RF | Washington Nationals | Age 20 | Low-A (Sally)
.257 AVG / .303 OBP / .308 SLG | 11 BB / 40 K | 240 PA

And for that matter, I’m beginning to think the U.S. vs. World structure of the Futures Game is getting stale. It’s probably time to break into American and National League teams, while still weighing diversity when choosing the rosters. Perez is just another guy that the American outfielders can play shallow, and a guy that left his patience in short-season ball.

Wilkin Ramirez | OF | Detroit Tigers | Age 24 | AA/AAA
.240 AVG / .303 OBP / .515 SLG | 24 BB / 97 K | 287 PA

A familiar face to the Futures Game, and a guy currently sporting a 1.203 career big league OPS (in 13 plate appearances). Ramirez is adding centerfield to his resume this year, so he’ll be a nice fourth outfielder option capable of playing all three spots. Ramirez strikes out too much to be a regular, but he has enough other skills to work in the Majors: power, a bit of patience, versatility, and, well, power.

Will be back on Monday with the world pitching staff, and hopefully, a rosier outlook.


Futures Game Preview: The U.S. Pitchers

In two weeks, Dave Cameron and I will be flying to Los Angeles to see the Futures Game, and we’ll bring you exclusive content from Angel Stadium while we’re there. As you’d expect, the announcement of the rosters was of great interest to us, so I will do my best to cover them in four parts: pitchers and hitters for both the U.S. and World teams. This is my third Futures Game, and while it’s just an All-Star Game, I’m eagerly anticipating watching these pitchers give their best for one inning, and these hitters try to deal with some of the best stuff in the minor leagues. Here’s a look at that stuff on the American side, ranked in order of the velocity they’ll throw.

Tanner Scheppers | RHP | Age 23 | Texas Rangers | AA/AAA (Tex/PCL)
38.8 K% | 8.6 BB% | 0.48 HR/9

What an inning will look like: Scheppers will be the guy to test triple digits, and I truly wouldn’t be surprised to see 90% fastballs if he makes it to Anaheim. He’s got a nasty curveball that we might see on a two-strike count, particularly to any right-handed hitters.

What he profiles as: While the hope is still that Scheppers could be a starting pitcher, I believe his move to the bullpen is no temporary assignment — his future is either closer or set-up man, depending on how the Rangers handle Neftali Feliz. Scheppers will always be death on right-handed hitters, and his hard fastball and sharp curve arsenal could lend to a Joel Zumaya-like future.

Shelby Miller | RHP | Age 19 | St. Louis Cardinals | Low-A (Midwest)
33.7 K% | 8.1 BB% | 0.44 HR/9 | 1.37 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: It’s going to be similar to Scheppers, with a ton of fastballs, probably touching about 97 mph if he’s going all-out for an inning. What secondary stuff we’ll see I don’t know — but his curveball is the other plus pitch.

What he profiles as: Obviously Miller is far away, but he’s going to be a good one. Ignore the 4.79 ERA in Low-A, as the River Bandits defense is horrible, and he’s currently sporting a .389 BABIP. What’s encouraging to me is the .233/.296/.356 line he’s held left-handed hitters to — either the changeup has improved immensely, or he’s just got a great approach to lefties. Hopefully we’ll get an idea in Anaheim.

Jarred Cosart | RHP | Age 20 | Philadelphia Phillies | Low-A (Sally)
29.3 K% | 5.2 BB% | 0.38 HR/9 | 1.89 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Given that his secondary stuff is probably the weakest of the bunch, Cosart is going to go after hitters with his fastball on pretty much every pitch. But he’ll flirt with 98 mph, and his lower arm slot will create a bit of deception.

What he profiles as: Until the secondary stuff comes around, it’s hard to see Cosart as anything but a reliever down the road. He’s been able to dominate Sally League hitters with his unique combination of velocity, command and movement on the heater, so if he grabs hold of a breaking ball, he’s got a good chance.

Jordan Lyles | RHP | Age 19 | Houston Astros | Double-A (Texas)
23.8 K% | 5.6 BB% | 0.62 HR/9 | 1.12 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: It’s not everyday we get to hand Astros fans good news, but I really think there is a non-zero chance that Dave and I will walk away from Anaheim most impressed with Lyles. Dude has a great build, commands a fastball that could push 95 mph in one inning, and his changeup has got really good. He also has the chance to hang a curveball and give up a long ball, however.

What he profiles as: Lyles is going to be starting in the big leagues late next season, and he’s a special talent. All six home runs allowed this year have been to right-handed hitters, so it’s clear that his fastball-change approach to lefties is currently better than the fastball-curveball option he gives right-handed hitters. He’ll give up some home runs in Minute Maid, but the good command should balance it out just fine.

Christian Friedrich | LHP | Age 22 | Colorado Rockies | Double-A (Texas)
21.2 K% | 8.8 BB% | 0.93 HR/9 | 0.83 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Friedrich’s curveball will be on the highlight reel for sure, as it’s one of the best in the minor leagues. I’m guessing we’ll see him throw it for a strike and in the dirt, while pitching around 92 mph with the fastball. Someone on the broadcast will probably say Barry Zito; though I’m not sure if that will be reflective of the quality of the broadcast or Friedrich’s future.

What he profiles as: The lefty has been scuffed up a bit in Double-A after a hot start, with his ERA rising to 5.59 after last night’s start. Too many walks and too many home runs is a frustrating combination, and I think Friedrich just needs the confidence in his changeup to have three pitches to throw at righties. He’ll be alright, but he’s more a mid-rotation guy.

Dan Hudson | RHP | Age 23 | Chicago White Sox | Triple-A (International)
31.6 K% | 7.7 BB% | 1.30 HR/9 | 1.18 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Hudson has the most TV-friendly delivery of any American pitcher, as he slings it from a three-quarter arm slot. The preseason comparison Baseball America made to Jered Weaver is apt, as it’s deception that we’ll walk away impressed with. He’ll mix in a slider and changeup, too.

What he profiles as: Hudson’s delivery and velocity got him a lot of groundballs at Old Dominion in college, but it’s clear now that he’s a flyball pitcher. The home runs are going to be a problem, and the secondary stuff still could stand some sharpening. Is it too early to predict a high infield fly rate?

Zach Britton | LHP | Age 22 | Baltimore Orioles | Double-A (Eastern)
19.5 K% | 8.0 BB% | 0.46 HR/9 | 3.19 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Britton is going to throw a lot of sinkers, if not a sinker on every single pitch. But it’s for a good reason, as Jeff Sackmann currently has his GB% at 65.2%. The depth of his slider will be something to look for, as it sits between average-and-plus depending on the day. But the depth of the slider is a foregone conclusion.

What he profiles as: The successes that we’ve seen from Jaime Garcia and Ricky Romero and C.J. Wilson bode well for Britton, who could be pretty similar to the Rangers southpaw at the big league level. He could stand to improve his walk rate a little, but it’s not a huge issue. He could be pitching just fine in the Majors right now.

Jeremy Hellickson | RHP | Age 23 | Tampa Bay Rays | Triple-A (International)
27.7 K% | 5.8 BB% | 0.30 HR/9 | 0.77 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: If the Rays don’t heed Jonah Keri’s request and keep Hellickson in the minor leagues, we already know who the most poised pitcher in the game will be. Hellickson has three pitches, he’ll mix them all in during any count, and he’ll confuse the hell out of the less experienced World hitters.

What he profiles as: Hellickson could be a fine big league pitcher yesterday, as his command and ability to keep the ball down are really good skills. I do wonder if his strikeout rate will still be this good in the Majors, though his ability to throw fastball-change-curve in any situation is a rare skill. FIP is going to like this guy.

Mike Minor | LHP | Age 22 | Atlanta Braves | Double-A (Southern)

34.7 K% | 9.9 BB% | 0.90 HR/9 | 0.98 GO/AO

What an inning will look like: Since Minor’s numbers are nothing like we envisioned from last year’s seventh overall pick, I’m not sure I could accurately summarize what we’ll see. But my guess is that his curveball, which was just an average pitch to scouts a year ago, has become a plus offering.

What he profiles as: I think I’ll have a better idea after the game. His fastball command has taken a turn south while his strikeout numbers are now out-of-this-world. It’s just a performance that doesn’t make sense across the board, and as a result, he’s the guy I’m most anticipating.


College World Series Preview: Bracket 1

The College World Series begins on Saturday with the nation’s final eight teams playing a double elimination tournament for a spot in the best-of-three finals. The teams are split into two brackets, and over two posts, I’ll preview each bracket.

Bracket 1: TCU, Florida State, Florida, UCLA.

Texas Christian: Dominated their hosted regional by beating each team (Lamar, Arizona and Baylor), outscoring their opponents 36-8 on the weekend. In the Super Regional, TCU stunned Texas in Austin, holding the Longhorns to one run in games one and three.

How They Got Here

Highest Drafted Player: Bryan Holaday, C, Detroit Tigers, 193rd overall.

Best Prospect: Matt Purke, LHP, So.

Florida State: Undeterred despite traveling to Connecticut for their regional, Florida State went 3-0 to sweep the regional, twice beating Oregon by two runs to reach the next round. They hosted Vanderbilt last weekend and won in three games, despite being outscored 20-18 by the Commodores.

Highest Drafted Player
: John Gast, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals, 199th overall.

How They Got Here

Best Prospect: James Ramsey, of, So. or Sean Gilmartin, lhp, So.

Florida: The Gators are a perfect 5-0 in the postseason, and have yet to allow an opponent to score more than three runs. Over those five games, the Gators have scored a total of 43 runs.

Highest Drafted Player
: Kevin Chapman, LHP, Kansas City Royals, 119th overall.

How They Got Here

Best Prospect: Preston Tucker, 1B, So.

UCLA: The Bruins faced no easy road getting here, but swept a regional in the mix for Regional of Death: LSU, UC Irvine, and Kent State. In the Super Regional, they came back numerous times against Cal State Fullerton, most notably scoring seven times in innings 8-10 to win Game Two 11-7.

How they got here

Highest Drafted Player: Rob Rasmussen, LHP, Florida Marlins, 73rd overall.

Best Prospect: Gerrit Cole, RHP, So.

After the jump, I wax free-form about how this bracket might go.
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Wait Til Next Year: Draft ’11 Preview – Pitchers

The 2011 draft class has a lot of good hitters, including the likely top overall draft pick, but the depth of the pitching, and the number of college pitchers taken in the first round next year will be the talk of the spring. There are just an unbelievable number of players that have already achieved Division I success, and have the caliber of stuff that big league teams are looking for. Since we started with Rendon this morning, I want to hit the best off the bat in this piece, too.

Right-Handed Starting Pitcher

Best Players: Gerrit Cole, UCLA, 2.92 FIP, 11.63 K/9, 4.17 BB/9. Taylor Jungmann, Texas, 3.79 FIP, 9.78 K/9, 3.20 BB/9.

While Cole is the best pitcher in this draft class, it would have been unfair to sink Jungmann into the article, as he’s a likely top ten overall pick next year, too. There was a great article detailing Jungmann’s arsenal at Prospect Insider this spring: 92-96 mph with the fastball (he’s touched 99 in the past), power 80 mph breaking ball, and a developing “screw-change”. He has the perfect pitcher’s build, and under Augie Garrido at Texas, the best experience that three years in college can buy.

However, the diamond of this class is Cole, which probably kills Yankees fans after he spurned the Bombers in the 2008 draft. Cole appeared to have a deal after New York took him in the first round, but he had a late change of heart, and wanted to experience college. UCLA head coach John Savage is also one of the renowned pitching instructors in the nation. Cole has made significant strides under Savage to get his fastball under command and to add a changeup to an arsenal good enough to succeed with two pitches. He’s regularly 95-97 mph, touches 99 often, and has shown occasionally plus movement in the past. His slider is inconsistently fantastic, and at 85-87 mph, it’s coming at a hitter hard.

Cole is the prohibitive favorite to be drafted second overall next June, especially considering that one last fall with Savage should tighten the screws on his entire arsenal.

Left-Handed Starting Pitcher

Best Player: Matt Purke, TCU, 3.37 FIP, 11.52 K/9, 2.55 BB/9.

The only draft-eligible sophomore in this series because of the lack of clarity about who exactly is eligible and who is not, but Purke’s eligibility has been understood since he spurned the Rangers last year. Purke has been better than anyone could have expected in his freshman season with the Horned Frogs, with his 2.55 walk rate really speaking to his polish. Purke is 91-94 mph with ease from the left side, and is capable of amping it up into the mid 90s. His power curveball is absolute death on left-handed hitters, as the guys at CollegeSplits tweeted last week: “0 HR, 15 K/9, insane 23/3 g/f out ratio vLH.” And with an improving change-up, Purke should be better suited to get his $6 million bonus demands than he was a year ago.

Relief Pitcher

Best Player: John Stilson, Texas A&M, 2.53 FIP, 12.99 K/9, 2.62 BB/9. The 2.53 FIP doesn’t really do it justice, as Stilson had a 0.80 ERA in 79 innings with the Aggies, striking out 114 batters. A junior college transfer, Stilson went from pitching in the low-90s in junior college, to regularly throwing 97-99 mph in the Aggies bullpen. He has a knockout slider, and relentlessly attacks hitters. We didn’t see a reliever taken in the first round this year, but in 2011, we might see one taken in the top ten picks.

After the break: a whole lot more.

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Wait Til Next Year: 2011 Draft Preview – Hitters

The draft year has three seasons: (1) Summer, when college players play in leagues with good talent distributions and wooden bats and high school players showcase their talent at an event every weekend, (2) Fall, when prospects work semi-privately with their coaches to clean up the unpolished aspects of their game and (3) Spring, when a player puts the finishing touches on his resume before the draft. With the college season and high school year both about to close, the time for reflecting on the 2010 draft class has closed, and scouts across all 30 organizations are shifting their focus to the 2011 draft crop. It’s a group unanimously more favored than 2010, with a chance at becoming one of the most adored draft classes in history.

In the first in a series of 2011 Draft previews we’ll have around here (June, August, February, June), I’m going to look at how the college crop looks from a year out. We’ll update that with the summer breakouts in August, when we’ll be able to add the high school talent to our follow lists. I will start with the position players, with the insanely deep pitching class coming this afternoon.

Corner Infield

Best Player: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice, .394/.530/.801. I wanted to start with the likely 2011 #1 overall pick, who followed up the best freshman season in Rice history (.388/.461/.702), with probably the best offensive season the school has ever seen. A very good defender and good baserunner, Rendon does not have a discernible hole in his game. His 21.5 BB% is more reflective of the fear he strikes in opposing teams, and rightfully so. Rendon is worthy of Orioles fans to begin rooting against their team.

Middle Infield

Best Player: Levi Michael, IF, UNC, .346/.480/.575. Michael skipped his final season of high school to attend North Carolina a year earlier, but his polish is such that you wouldn’t guess he’s a year younger than his peers. Probably a second baseman in the end, Michael cut down his strikeout rate (12.1%) by nine percent, and upped his walk rate (15.7%) by seven perfect as a sophomore. Michael is a good base runner (20-for-22 this season), has power in his bat, and will stick in the middle infield.

Catcher

Best Player: Jett Bandy, C/3B, Arizona, .354/.444/.538. By far the thinnest position of the draft class, I don’t think there is a college catcher that will be drafted on the first day. However, Bandy has an invitation to play for USA Baseball this summer, and if the 6-foot-4 slugger proves that he can stick behind the plate, he has a chance. Bandy threw out 24-of-67 runners this year, while hitting 23 doubles and posting a 10.3 K%.

Outfield

Best Player: Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, South Carolina, .367/.468/.585. Those of you that follow Aaron Fitt on the college beat at Baseball America know his affinity for Bradley Jr., who is the best combination of tools and performance in this draft class. Bradley Jr. is a very smooth baseball player that has never been out of sorts in the SEC, and has just started to tap into his power potential. The Gamecocks were simply not the same when he was out of the lineup with a broken hand earlier this season.

After the jump, you get 950 more words, and a few dozen more players at each position to start thinking about.

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Dreamweaving the Draft

The draft is all about dreaming on skills. You can bet that with every selection in yesterday’s first round, there was a scouting director and an area scout conjuring up the type of player their draftee could become. I thought it might be a fun exercise — especially given the pessimism that my draft history series provided — to look at who they might have been thinking of. I’m not projecting these futures, and would note the comparisons are rudimentary. But if we’re ever going to skew rose-colored, it should be today.

1. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
Skills they love: Big left-handed power, big arm.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: It’s not my comparison, but Larry Walker’s performance in right field is a good benchmark. I’d also point to the peaks of Shawn Green and David Justice as jumping off points.

2. Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Skills they love: Pitcher’s body, strikeout potential.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: How about Andy Benes‘ first 6 seasons, and Chris Carpenter’s second 6 seasons?

3. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles
Skills they love: Fluid swing, power potential, natural athleticism.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: No one could rightfully be hoping for Alex Rodriguez production, but how about Matt Williams? Same height, third overall pick, started at shortstop.

4. Christian Colon, SS/2B, Kansas City Royals
Skills they love: Bat control, will stay up middle, little pop.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: 2003-2004 Mark Loretta. He hit .325/.382/.469, with a 112/107 BB/K ratio in 1360 plate appearances. Only not for just two seasons.

5. Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Skills they love: Easy velocity, snap-dragon curveball, workhorse.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: One of the Indians’ own — Chuck Finley, with a little better command. No easy comparison with this profile.

6. Barret Loux, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Skills they love: Pitcher’s build, very good changeup.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: Jason Schmidt, who only threw a breaking ball 10% of the time from 2003-2006, but managed 20 WAR over that time frame.

7. Matt Harvey, RHP, New York Mets
Skills they love: Big frame, big fastball, potential four-pitch mix.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: This is a fairly common pitcher, but I think if you put Matt Garza and Kevin Millwood in a blender, they might make what the Mets want from Harvey.

8. Delino DeShields Jr., CF, Houston Astros
Skills they love: Plus-plus speed, good defensive potential, leadoff stuff.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: It’s pretty hard to lock down, but I’ll throw three players out there: Chuck Knoblauch, Eric Young or Chad Curtis.

9. Karsten Whitson, RHP, San Diego Padres
Skills they love: Very good slider, projectable velocity.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: I think Jeremy Bonderman and Matt Clement are pretty accurate representations of slider-four seam guys that have had success.

10. Michael Choice, OF, Oakland Athletics
Skills they love: Big, raw power, good patience, solid defense.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: Danny Tartabull on the athletic side, Greg Vaughn on the unathletic side.

11. Deck McGuire, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Skills they love: Innings-Eater Frame, Commanded 4-pitch mix.
They’ll be hoping for production that looks like: We can probably do better than John Lackey, so I’ll throw Scott Sanderson out there.

12. Yasmani Grandal, C, Cincinnati Reds
Skills they love: Good defender, switch-hitter can hit home run.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Perfect world? 1988-1996, Mickey Tettleton posted a 128 OPS+, and wasn’t the defender Grandal could be.

13. Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Skills they love: Projectable, throws strikes, death on left-handed hitters.
They’ll be hoping for production like: The best optimistic comparison available is probably Mark Mulder, who has a similar pitch arsenal, and similarly good command.

14. Dylan Covey, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Skills they love: Good fastball movement, power curve.
They’ll be hoping for production like: The most optimistic of hopes would be Chad Billingsley.

15. Jake Skole, OF, Texas Rangers
Skills they love: Hard-nosed, five-tool potential.
They’ll be hoping for production like: The easy comparison, which has already been made, is Grady Sizemore. I’d throw out Ray Lankford or maybe Steve Finley into the discussion, too, but we’re really skewing optimistic.

16. Hayden Simpson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Skills they love: Good fastball velocity, two working breaking balls.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Scouting Director Tim Wilken already likened Simpson to Tim Lincecum or Roy Oswalt, so he did our work for us. Whatever he says.

17. Josh Sale, LF/RF, Tampa Bay Rays
Skills they love: Big-time power bat, good corner outfield profile.
They’ll be hoping for production like: How about another former 17th overall pick that slugged lefty, threw right-handed, and wasn’t very tall: Jeromy Burnitz? The Rays would hope for longer career, though.

18. Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
Skills they love: Power switch-hitting bat with a canon at third base.
They’ll be hoping for production like: We won’t have a long history of powerful, switch-hitting third basemen, and since Cowart is from Georgia, the easy comp has been resorted to: Chipper. We’re pretty limited to him or Bobby Bonilla.

19. Mike Foltyniewicz, RHP, Houston Astros
Skills they love: Good fastball movement, clean mechanics.
They’ll be hoping for production like: We don’t have a ton to identify Foltyniewicz from, but I think you’d be looking at a groundballer with length and a good changeup: Scott Erickson, maybe?

20. Kolbrin Vitek, 2B/3B/CF, Boston Red Sox
Skills they love: Pure bat, good speed/arm combination.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Vitek is sort of an odd duck, so this one wasn’t easy. I would say the perfect world expectations start at 1995-2000 Jeff Cirillo (113 OPS+), and only go north from there.

21. Alex Wimmers, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Skills they love: Solid command, plus-plus change, three ready pitches.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Pat Hentgen had the right mix of size, command, and home run tendencies I was looking for in a Wimmers comparison.

22. Kellin Deglan, C, Texas Rangers
Skills they love: Will stick behind plate, projection in left-handed bat.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Not a lot to go off with his offensive profile, so it’s hard to know if they are thinking Darren Daulton or A.J. Pierzynski. Maybe our best option is Brian McCann?

23. Christian Yelich, 1B, Florida Marlins
Skills they love: Pretty left-handed swing.
They’ll be hoping for production like: This is a player where the comps sort of write themselves: we’ve heard John Olerud and Mark Grace. We’d have to throw in Kent Hrbek and Sean Casey, too.

24. Gary Brown, CF, San Francisco Giants
Skills they love: Plus-plus speed, great bat control.
They’ll be hoping for production like: We talked in yesterday’s chat about how unique the Giants would need Brown to be given his walk rate, but the team has to hope he learns some patience and becomes Cesar Cedeno-like.

25. Zack Cox, 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Skills they love: Pure bat, has some power in it.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Cox is another guy whose value could be all over the place, but if you want perfect world, the Cardinals are probably thinking Robinson Cano with patience.

26. Kyle Parker, RF, Colorado Rockies
Skills they love: Strength and big-time power.
They’ll be hoping for production like: The list looks very similar to Michael Choice, given the short stature, the big strength and the unavoidable strikeouts. I’d add in Jesse Barfield to the list of comps given on Choice.

27. Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Skills they love: Big projectable frame, good changeup.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Big, tall lefty with a good changeup? You have to think Frank Viola, right?

28. Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Skills they love: He won’t sign.
They’ll be hoping for production like: I’m sure the Dodgers wish the best for him as a quarterback at LSU.

29. Cam Bedrosian, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Skills they love: Good fastball/slider combination, attacks on the mound.
They’ll be hoping for production like: I’m guessing even more than his father, because the Angels are planning on keeping Bedrosian as a starter. A guy like Juan Guzman, in his good years, is a possibility.

30. Chevez Clarke, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Skills they love: Fast-twitch, switch-hitter in center.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Probably hoping for something like Chone Figgins, although a Brian McRae type might be the more realistic hope.

31. Justin O’Conner, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Skills they love: Athletic, big arm, big power potential.
They’ll be hoping for production like: On the high side, you’d love him to develop the patience and become Gene Tenace, but Terry Steinbach and his Midwest connections seem apt.

32. Cito Culver, SS, New York Yankees

Skills they love: Switch-hitter that could stay at shortstop.
They’ll be hoping for production like: Tony Fernandez had the speed and gap power combination that the Yankees love about Culver.


2010 MLB Draft: Not Selected Day 1

Some inside baseball on our draft preparation here at FanGraphs — Marc Hulet and I split up a bunch of names before the draft, and wrote snippets on them that you saw appear live as the picks happened tonight. However, we were left with a bunch of names that weren’t taken. I don’t want those to go to waste, so here they are — reference away as they are picked on Tuesday.

Stetson Allie | RHP | Ohio HS
A draft standard, Allie gets the label of the draft’s hardest thrower, showing three digits on radar guns at more than one showcase last summer. Allie is big without a ton of projection left, but he’s very athletic, and would be talked about as a power hitting prospect if not for the fastball. The question, as it does for pitchers of his ilk, comes down to control and command, and Allie doesn’t have much of either right now. If he makes the Major Leagues, it will be as a reliever, with his career outcomes varying as wide as Colt Griffin and Jonathan Broxton. (Bryan Smith)

Zach Alvord | SS/2B | Georgia HS
Alvord has one of the hardest, most violent swings in this draft, but with raw power and a middle infield pedigree, he has teams interested. Most believe he will move to second base at the next level, as he has never offered speed equivalent to his high school shortstop peers. He’s a bona fide project, but bat speed like his cannot be taught. Alvord is committed to Auburn University. (Bryan Smith)

Chad Bettis | RHP | Texas Tech University
Bettis has bounced around during his time at TTU and has pitched as both a starter and a reliever. The right-hander sits in the mid-90s as a reliever and could produce above-average ground-ball rates as a pro. Bettis also features a good slider and a change-up, although he needs to work on his command and he could also stand to incorporate his legs more during his delivery. He could move quickly through the minors as a reliever, but he could also develop into a solid No. 3 starter. (Marc Hulet)

Kris Bryant | 3B | Nevada HS
Apparently Nevada sluggers just have more power, as behind Bryce Harper, Bryant offers some of the bigger raw power in this draft. Some have labeled him a Batting Practice Hitter, meaning that he’s more likely to put on a show before the game than during it. He’s very thin and very wiry, so there is no question that more strength is on the way. With it, he’ll be tried out at third base after playing shortstop at Bonanza High School. If he were to make good on his commitment to University of San Diego, Bryant would be an early favorite to lead the nation in home runs in 2013. (Bryan Smith)

Yordy Cabrera | SS | Florida HS
A prep two-way player, Cabrera is 19-year-old senior. His father is a former professional baseball player and a current minor league manager, so the young infielder has spent a lot of time around the game, which should help him early on in his career as he adjusts to pro ball. Cabrera has a very strong arm and good actions at shortstop. Offensively, he’s a mistake hitter with raw power who struggles against breaking balls. Cabrera is committed to the University of Miami. (Marc Hulet)

A.J. Cole | RHP | Florida HS
Another talented Florida high schooler committed to Miami, Cole could probably benefit from three years in college. He’s been a mixed bag this spring, at times touching 95 mph with a good breaking ball, at times resorting to a one-pitch guy that tops at 92 mph. He’s very skinny for a 6-foot-5 frame, so he’ll add weight and probably consistency down the road. Has some of the highest potential, and one of the longest development schedules in this draft. (Bryan Smith)

Derek Dietrich | SS | Georgia Tech
The grandson of long-time Pittsburgh Pirates coach and scout Steve Demeter, Dietrich didn’t see his bonus demands met in the 2007 draft, when the Houston Astros drafted him in the third round. Dietrich instead went to Georgia Tech, where he starred for three seasons, hitting at least 10 home runs each year, while playing shortstop everyday in a tough conference. He doesn’t have the range for shortstop, and scouts question whether he will have the power with a wood bat to play third base. Ultimately, his future value likely hinges on how well he takes to second base down the road. (Bryan Smith)

Brett Eibner | RHP/OF | University of Arkansas
It would be a surprise if Eibner isn’t announced as a pitcher when he’s drafted, but he’s clinging to the hope that the outfield is his future. He’s athletic enough to succeed in center field, but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss in his bat. On the mound, he offers a lot of fluidity, and has touched 94 mph with his fastball. You’ll see a plus slider on occasion, but he’s never really needed to throw a changeup. (Bryan Smith)

Dave Filak | RHP | SUNY-Oneonta
Filak walked on to this small Division III program, and has almost no history of facing elite competition. But he’s 6-foot-5, has touched 95 mph, and offers a curveball that hitters at his level could not touch. He’ll have to assuage concerns about the health of his elbow, as he missed a start with elbow soreness this spring. The team that believes in their own development staff could definitely take a chance on Filak, who offers all the potential coaches need to mold a Major Leaguer. (Bryan Smith)

Kevin Gausman | RHP | Colorado HS
One of the better prospects to come from his state in some time, Gausman is the type that excites the area scouts more than the crosscheckers and scouting directors. He was hit hard this spring because he relies on just his fastball, as a team would essentially have to start from the beginning with him on secondary stuff. However, he’s wiry and athletic, and has a very fluid delivery. Many believe Louisiana State University would be his best option. (Bryan Smith)

Micah Gibbs | C | Louisiana State
There aren’t a ton of top catching prospects in the upper portion of the draft, so Gibbs could get popped earlier than expected as a result of that fact. Defensively, he’s an above-average catcher with an average arm. Offensively, he’s improved with the bat but has had to sacrifice some power. Gibbs clears his hips too, as well, which could be robbing him of power. He’s not expected to be a great offensive catcher, but he should be a solid all-around contributor. (Marc Hulet)

Reggie Golden | OF | Alabama HS
Golden is another fast riser that has been mentioned in first round consideration. The raw, but athletic outfielder flashes all five tools and speed is a big part of his game right now but he’s expected to slow down as his body matures. Golden also has good bat speed and a very strong arm, which is tailor-made for right-field. He’ll have to watch his conditioning, as he’s already 210 lbs on a 5’10” frame and he has a thick lower half. He’s committed to the University of Alabama. (Marc Hulet)

Justin Grimm | RHP | University of Georgia
Grimm is one of those college pitchers whose results have never mirrored his talent. He has a good pitcher’s frame and a low-to-mid-90s fastball. Unfortunately, he pitches up in the zone too much and lacks movement on his heater. He also has a curveball and a change-up. Grimm does a nice job of staying tall in his delivery but there is effort to his arm action. His command, as a result, comes and goes. Grimm was originally drafted out of high school by the Boston Red Sox in the 13th round. (Marc Hulet)

Jedd Gyorko | SS | University of West Virginia
Gyorko is a good-hit, no-field shortstop who is expect to move immediately to second, third or left field in pro ball. He’s expected to hit for a good average with gap power. Gyorko has a good eye at the plate and shouldn’t strike out too much, but he needs to make some adjustments in his awkward stance to help with pitches on the inner half of the plate. (Marc Hulet)

Jesse Hahn | RHP | Virginia Tech University
Hahn is a hard-throwing pitcher, whose fastball sits in the low 90s and can touch the mid 90s. He also features a good slider, curveball (He changes his arm angle on this pitch), and change-up. There are some health concerns about Hahn’s elbow and he underwent an MRI earlier in the spring. Due to his past health concerns and a lack of consistent command, Hahn could be best-suited to bullpen work in pro ball. (Marc Hulet)

Jake Hernandez | C | California HS
Committed to play for former Major League catcher Chad Kreuter at the University of Southern California, Hernandez already possesses the defensive skills to succeed at an elite level. He’s athletic and fundamentally sound behind the plate, and gets the ball to second base quickly. Many have been quick to put the future back-up label on Hernandez, as his offensive skills significantly lag behind his defense. (Bryan Smith)

Leon Landry | OF | Louisiana State University
Already a SportsCenter staple due to an amazing defensive highlight reel, Landry has a history of making big plays in big games. However, he’s wildly inconsistent, and was benched for stretches of LSU’s title run last season. The problem is a pull happy approach, and he just isn’t the home run hitter he believes himself to be. While capable of great plays in the outfield, he draws criticism for bad reads on standard plays. (Bryan Smith)

Marcus Littlewood | SS | Utah HS
There are no agreements to be found about Littlewood’s ultimate potential, as he offers a lot left to project with the bat, and a defensive profile that gives him that “tweener” label. He has good footwork and instincts up the middle, but scouts are concerned that his size (6-foot-3) and his lack of raw speed suggest a position change down the road. That would be unfortunate, because the one point of agreement seems to be that he’ll never hit for much power. He is committed to play at the University of San Diego. (Bryan Smith)

Kevin Munson | RHP | James Madison
Recruited to James Madison as a catcher, Munson was converted upon arrival, so credit goes to his coaching staff. Munson grabbed hold of the closer role as a freshman, and never let it go, striking out 171 batters in 134 innings over his career. He has really refined a plus slider that is just death on right-handed hitters, and he’s a good bet to succeed in that role in the Major Leagues. The question will come down to command, as Munson won’t get as many hitters to chase in the pro’s. (Bryan Smith)

Griffin Murphy | LHP | California HS
Murphy has seen his value increase as the draft approaches. He’s not over-powering but he has an average fastball with velocity between 88-92 mph. He also has a plus curveball and a change-up. Murphy’s shoulder tends to fly open at times. He’s committed to the University of San Diego. (Marc Hulet)

James Paxton | LHP | Independent Baseball League
A native Canadian and a Scott Boras client, Paxton failed to sign with the Blue Jays as the 37th overall pick of the ’09 draft. The lefty then lost his college eligibility and failed to pitch during what would have been his senior year of college. Paxton did throw a few innings in an independent baseball league prior to the draft in an effort to boost his draft stock. When he’s sharp, he has a mid-to-high-90s fastball, a plus curveball and a raw change-up. (Marc Hulet)

Jacob Petricka | RHP | Indiana State University
Petricka could move somewhat quickly through the minors if continues to flash above-average velocity on his heater. The right-hander could move even quicker if he’s converted to the ‘pen by a team that wants him to focus on his fastball-breaking ball mix. Petricka was drafted by the Yankees last season as a draft-eligible sophomore but turned them down; it looks like a smart move, as he’ll be taken much sooner than the 34th round. (Marc Hulet)

Rob Rasmussen | LHP | UCLA
An under-sized lefty, Rasmussen is a competitor who isn’t afraid to pound the strike zone with solid stuff. He features an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up. He shows good control but mechanical issues can lead to slips in his command. He was a solid prospect as a prep pitcher but he slid to the Dodgers in the 27th round due to signability concerns. (Marc Hulet)

Mel Rojas Jr. | OF | Wabash Community College
Son of the reliever that pitched in 525 Major League games, Rojas actually didn’t inherit a great deal of arm strength from his father. However, he got plenty of athletic genes, and projects to cover a lot of ground in center field. Skinny and 6-foot-3, Rojas will add strength, but the question is whether he has enough loft on his swing to hit for power. The team that drafts him will have the onus of adding patience to his game at the next level, as he’s succeeded without it up to now. (Bryan Smith)

Austin Wates | OF | Virginia Tech
Wates has a nice-and-easy swing that he uses to center the ball very well, he didn’t even strike out often as an everyday freshman in the ACC. Two years later, he’s still making plenty of contact, and the power is just now coming around. He’ll never hit for a ton of it, but he won’t have to, hitting for a high average. Wates was 48-for-57 in his career on the basepaths, but still needs to translate that speed to range in the outfield. His arm is the only tool that rates below average. (Bryan Smith)

Austin Wilson | OF | California HS
Wilson is an intriguing prospect but he’s also committed to Stanford University; it could take a very hefty cheque to swing his loyalties. The outfield is raw and could take some time to develop but he displays four- or five-tool potential with good speed, power and a strong arm. Like many young hitters, Wilson struggles with breaking balls. Defensively, he needs to quicken the transfer on his throws from the outfield. Wilson will probably need a large number of at-bats in the minors before he’s ready for The Show. He’s a true high risk, high reward player. (Marc Hulet)

Brandon Workman | RHP | University of Texas
Workman is a starter with four solid pitches, including a low-90s fastball, plus curveball, cutter, and change-up. The right-hander has good movement on his pitches and solid control. Workman is a little stiff in his delivery. He was originally drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies but turned them down as a third-round pick. (Marc Hulet)


2010 MLB Draft Selections

While we’re chatting away down below, you can follow along as we update this post and offer some commentary on a pick by pick basis.

1. Washington Nationals – Bryce Harper | C/OF | College of Southern Nevada

Credit is due to both Rich Lederer and Tom Verducci for introducing Harper to the blogosphere and world, respectively, very early in his prep career, paving the way for him to become one of the most hyped prospects in draft history. It seemed a gimmick when Harper opted to skip his final two years of high school to join his brother Bryan at the College of Southern Nevada, but he was ready: slugging .442/.524/.986 in one of the nation’s hardest junior college conferences. Harper has 80 raw power on the 20-80 scouting scale, and a 70 arm that will likely lend a move from catcher to right field. Harper is represented by Scott Boras, and is likely to set a draft record with the contract he signs. (Bryan Smith)

2. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jameson Taillon | RHP | Texas HS

Touted as the best high school pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, Taillon’s stuff outpaced his results this spring. However, listed at 6-foot-7, and sporting a fastball that reaches 97 mph, any team would love to get their pitching instructors working on building their next ace. Taillon might have to pick a breaking ball at the next level, and it will probably be a hard slider that sits around 85 mph. He’s an intelligent pitcher that has embraced the idea of throwing a changeup, but in high school, showed it more in bullpens than during games. Stuff like this usually doesn’t miss, but the team that drafts him must be ready to refine his arm. (Bryan Smith)

3. Baltimore Orioles – Manny Machado | SS | Florida HS

Probably the best Miami-area high school prospect since Alex Rodriguez, Machado has been plagued by that lofty comparison for about a year. While no one is ready to project 600 home run power, he’s a sure-fire bet to add muscle and pop in the minor leagues. Machado offers a canon of an arm, so if he grows too big for the middle infield, both third base and right field should be natural fits. After dominating the summer showcase series last summer, Machado grabbed hold of the top high school hitter label, and never let it go this spring. (Bryan Smith)

4. Kansas City Royals – Christian Colon | SS | Cal State Fullerton

One of the top shortstop prospects in the game, Colon is likely to move to second base in professional baseball due to limits with both his range and arm strength, although he has pretty quick hands. Offensively, he swings with a clear upper cut in his stroke at times, which could cause him some issues against better pitching. In college, though, he exhibited the ability to make consistent contact and rarely struck out. Colon was originally selected out of high school by San Diego in the 10th round of the 2007 draft. (Marc Hulet)

5. Cleveland Indians – Drew Pomeranz | LHP | University of Mississippi

The top college pitcher in the draft, Pomeranz has solid fastball velocity for a lefty. The southpaw has a good three-pitch mix – 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up – but his control is still a work in progress. He has a fairly smooth delivery. Pomeranz was previously selected out of high school by the Texas Rangers in the 12th round of the 2007 draft. (Marc Hulet)

6. Arizona Diamondbacks – Barret Loux | RHP | Texas A&M

One of Division I’s top recruits three years ago, Loux was inconsistent for his first two seasons, before transforming into the ace the Aggies needed this season. He’s your typical tall-and-fall big righty, with little tempo in his delivery, but a ton of arm speed on his 92-94 mph fastball. He maintains the arm speed on a very good changeup that has been his best pitch this spring, helping to shut down left-handed hitters. He’ll need work refining a breaking ball, as neither his slider or curveball made much headway in three years at college. (Bryan Smith)

7. New York Mets – Matt Harvey | RHP | University of North Carolina

Entering the 2007 draft, the top three prep pitchers were Rick Porcello, Jarrod Parker, and Matt Harvey. Both Porcello and Parker signed as first-round picks but Harvey slid to the third round (Los Angeles Angels) due to signability concerns and ended up heading off to the University of North Carolina. Harvey had an up-and-down career in college but has looked good this season. He has mid-90s velocity, a sharp slider, and and a developing change-up but his command and control both need work; he could stand to have a cleaner finish to his arm action. If he cannot improve in that area, Harvey could end up at the back of a big league bullpen. (Marc Hulet)

8. Houston Astros – Delino DeShields Jr. | OF | Georgia HS

Like his father (who is a former first round pick of the Expos), DeShields’ game is built around plus-plus speed. Unlike a lot of young speedsters, though, he’s not a fast-twitch player and he’s filled out pretty well already. Offensively, there are some questions about his potential with the stick but he has good bat speed; he just needs better pitch recognition. He’s committed to Louisiana State University, but is expected to be drafted in the first round. (Marc Hulet)

9. San Diego Padres – Karsten Whitson | RHP | Florida HS

Whitson has a fastball that can hit the mid-90s but his slider is one of the best in the draft. The right-hander is athletic (He was a good prep basketball player) and fields his position well. He has a quick, short arm action. Whitson, who has been on the prospect circuit for quite some time, is committed to the University of Florida. (Marc Hulet)

10. Oakland Athletics – Michael Choice | OF | University of Texas-Arlington

As the draft neared, there were a number of teams with top draft picks dreaming on Choice’s plus power potential. He’s been a three true outcome hitter in college with lots of home runs, walks, and strikeouts. Like a lot of young hitters, Choice needs to avoid the natural tendency to try and pull everything; he has excellent bat speed that could easily produce opposite-field blasts. A center-fielder in college, he should be able to stick there but he has the power to play either outfield corner. (Marc Hulet)

11. Toronto Blue Jays – Deck McGuire | RHP | Georgia Tech

It’s not often for a pitcher to pair such size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds) with such pitchability, but McGuire is a rare breed. Capable of throwing four pitches in any count, he’ll go as high as scouts believe in pitches 2-4. We know his fastball will work at the next level, and while it’s not explosive, commanding 92 mph isn’t bad. He trusts his change up, and flashes a plus slider, so it will probably be his curveball that gets scrapped. (Bryan Smith)

12. Cincinnati Reds – Yasmani Grandal | C | University of Miami

It’s easy to see why Grandal is attractive to a number of teams picking in the first half of the first round of the 2010 draft. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with solid offensive and defensive skills (although his arm strength is a little below average). Grandal has displayed the ability to hit for a good average and also has some pop. He has yet to thicken up in his lower half but he’s not a great base runner. After a modest senior year of high school, he slid to the 27th round when teams became leery on his signability. The Red Sox tried to get an above-slot deal done by Grandal ultimately headed to Miami. (Marc Hulet)

13. Chicago White Sox – Chris Sale | LHP | Florida Gulf Coast University

The 6’6” southpaw is not a hard thrower and his fastball tops out around 90 mph. However, he commands it very well and its movement makes it a plus pitch for him. His change-up is also considered a plus pitch, but he’s still working to command his slider on a regular basis. Sale has good deception in his delivery to right-handers. He was originally drafted out of high school in the 21st round by the Colorado Rockies. (Marc Hulet)

14. Milwaukee Brewers – Dylan Covey | RHP | California HS

Covey doesn’t have the same explosive ceiling as some of the other first-round arms, in part because he’s already filled out, but he has advanced skills that could help him move quickly through the minors. The right-hander has a low-90s fastball and good slider. His repertoire also includes a curveball and a change-up. Covey’s delivery is fairly smooth. As the draft approached, his value had slipped a bit. Covey is committed to the University of San Diego. (Marc Hulet)

15. Texas Rangers – Jake Skole | OF | Georgia HS

Skole was an overdraft by the Rangers with a pick that was not protected. The outfielder had a lot of helium as the draft approached, as a number of teams were eyeing him for the supplemental round. Like a lot of young players, Skole needs to work on his pitch recognition but he projects to have good power and should slot in at a corner outfield spot. He’s committed to Georgia Tech to also play football, so the Rangers obviously have something worked out here and can spread out his draft bonus. (Marc Hulet)

16. Chicago Cubs – Hayden Simpson | RHP | Southern Arkansas

The only guy on earth who knows anything about Simpson is Jim Callis, and unfortunately, he doesn’t work for us.

17. Tampa Bay Rays – Josh Sale | OF | Seattle HS
Sale receives a lot of comparisons to Toronto’s Travis Snider but the ‘10 draft pick has better bat speed, which helps him to show plus, raw power. Like many young hitters, Sale struggles with breaking balls but he’s considered a hard worker and should improve quickly in pro ball. He’s committed to Gonzaga University but could be one of the first prep bats off the board. (Marc Hulet)

18. Anaheim Angels – Kaleb Cowart | RHP/SS | Georgia HS

It will be important to take note of Cowart’s announced position, as teams seem to still be debating his best future path. On the mound, he succeeds with an essentially one-pitch arsenal, a low-to-mid 90s fastball with good movement. At the plate, he’s a switch-hitter that most believe will move to third base. He certainly has the arm for the position, and his bat has plenty of untapped power. Cowart has been said to prefer playing everyday, but won’t necessarily attend Florida State University if that preference is not met. (Bryan Smith)

19. Houston Astros – Mike Foltynewicz | RHP | Illinois HS

Foltynewicz is a hard-throwing right-hander that can touch the mid-90s with his heater, and he also has a good change-up. Both his slider and his curve ball are developing. He’s committed to the University of Texas. (Marc Hulet)

20. Boston Red Sox – Kolbrin Vitek | 2B/3B/OF | Ball State University

Vitek was a two-way player at Ball State, occupying a regular spot in the Cardinals rotation, and impressed scouts there with a 185/48 strikeout-to-walk ratio over a little more than 200 innings. But no one is likely to take the bat out of Vitek’s hands, as he seems to hit at every stop. He has been an awkward fit defensively, but with good raw speed, many teams think he will be a good fit in center field. (Bryan Smith)

21. Minnesota Twins – Alex Wimmers | RHP | Ohio State

Handed the title of the most Major League ready of the draft prospects, Wimmers is likely to move quickly through the minor leagues. However, he doesn’t have the command or guile of Mike Leake, so he should be penciled in for 2012 rather than 2011. He does have better raw stuff, probably, with the best changeup in the draft. Given his ability to backdoor a plus curveball, left-handed hitters have no chance, and when he shows the confidence to throw the change to RHH’s, they shouldn’t either. His velocity has ebbed and flowed a bit throughout his career, but it should be consistently 91-94 when he’s done filling out. (Bryan Smith)

22. Texas Rangers – Kellin Deglan | C | British Columbia HS

One of the top Canadians, Deglan has surpassed a couple other Canuck prospects this season and could be the first name called from the country (although James Paxton is in play, too). Defensively, he’s a good receiver with a strong arm. It’s his bat that has question marks surrounding it. His left-handed swing gets long at times but he does possess good power potential if he can learn to make consistent contact. (Marc Hulet)

23. Florida Marlins – Christian Yelich | 1B/OF | California HS

Yelich possesses the prettiest swing in the entire draft, a smooth left-handed stroke with very good bat speed. He hasn’t filled out his 6-foot-4, 190 pound frame, so scouts believe that the doubles he will show in the low minors will become home runs as he rises up the ladder. However, while he is quick enough to handle a corner outfield spot, Yelich has one of the ugliest throwing motions you will see from a first-round draft prospect. In all likelihood, he will be relegated to first base, where he’s likely to lead the position in steals down the road. (Bryan Smith)

24. San Francisco Giants -Gary Brown | OF | Cal State Fullerton

Brown has perhaps the best speed in the draft. That allows him to project as a plus defender in center field despite an average arm. Offensively, there are a lot of questions about his hitting ability. As a speedster, he needs to do a better job of talking walks so that he can take advantage of his plus-plus speed. The team that selects Brown will no doubt instruct its coaches to quiet his lower half; he has far too much movementin his feet and will need to develop a better timing mechanism. His body resembles a young Aaron Hill, which includes shorter legs, and he could lose some speed as he fills out. He was originally drafted in the 12th round by the A’s out of high school. (Marc Hulet)

25. St. Louis Cardinals -Zack Cox | 3B/2B | University of Arkansas

A draft-eligible infielder, Cox certainly experienced the Tale of Two Seasons. As a freshman, he flew up the draft radar by showing big-time power, hitting 28 extra bases in 181 at-bats in the SEC. Scouts were worried, however, if his 58 strikeouts was a sign that he’d never make enough contact to succeed. Flash forward a year later, and Cox has a ISO of just .179, but has just 34 strikeouts in more than 260 plate appearances. In separate seasons, he’s generated plus reports in both the hitting and power columns, so if a team believes he’ll meld both skills together, Cox could be the first college hitter selected. (Bryan Smith)

26. Colorado Rockies – Kyle Parker | OF | Clemson University

There aren’t a ton of college outfielders with high ceilings, so Parker is a bit of a rarity in the 2010 draft. Clemson’s starting quarterback, he’s considered a tough sign. He has good, raw power and projects to be a pro left fielder due to his average arm. (Marc Hulet)

27. Philadelphia Phillies – Jesse Biddle | LHP | Pennsylvania HS

Biddle is a big 6-foot-6 lefty, and one of the better cold state pitchers available in this draft. Like a lot of guys that come from colder states, he doesn’t yet have a great feeling for a breaking ball, tossing his curveball just a slow 70 mph. But his feeling for a changeup is actually fairly advanced, and his low 90s velocity is very good for a lefty.

28. Los Angeles Dodgers – Zach Lee | RHP | Texas HS

A top quarterback prospect from Texas, it will clearly take a lot ($$$) to sway Lee away from his commitment to Louisiana State University. A team drafting Lee in the first round will have to have a pretty good feel on his signability. Lee has a three pitch repertoire that includes a low-90s fastball, slider, and change-up. His arm slot tends to wander at times. Thanks to his focus on the football field, the right-hander is still raw but he does display solid control for his age. (Marc Hulet)

29. Anaheim Angels – Cam Bedrosian | RHP | Georgia HS

The son of former closer Steve Bedrosian, who won the NL Cy Young in the late ’80s, this young right-hander is a projected starter. Bedrosian is on the short side at just 6’0” but he has a good low-90s fastball that can touch the mid-90s and has good, late life. He also features three other pitches (curve, slider, change) but none of them rate as more than average right now. He’s committed to Louisiana State, but is considered signable. (Marc Hulet)

30. Anaheim Angels – Chevez Clarke | OF | Georgia HS

One of the draft’s most talented, and inconsistent, performers. Clarke’s most worrisome note is found in Keith Law’s write-up of him, “…he’s an undisciplined hitter whom I’ve seen struggle to square balls up well even in [batting practice]…” While that is clearly a bad sign, Clarke will tease people by showing all five tools in some games. He is committed to Georgia Tech, but most believe a team tempted by his ability will sign him away from the Yellow Jackets. (Bryan Smith)

31. Tampa Bay Rays – Justin O’Conner | C/RHP | Indiana HS

O’Conner is an intriguing two-way prep player who spent time on the left side of the infield before settling behind the plate. O’Conner attracted scouts with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and good curveball but he’s also displayed above-average power. Clearly, there is work to be done on his raw defensive skills given the limited time he’s had behind the dish. He lacks accuracy with his strong throws from behind the plate. If he can hit for a solid average – and some scouts have their doubts – O’Conner could be a real find. He is committed to the University of Arkansas. (Marc Hulet)

32. New York Yankees – Cito Culver | SS | New York HS

33. Houston Astros – Mike Kvasnicka | C/OF | University of Minnesota

The Big Ten’s best offensive prospect is a player whose value is strictly tied to his perceived ability to catch. Kvasnicka didn’t get behind the plate often in three years at Minnesota, but scouts believe his footwork and arm strength will be sufficient. At the plate, he’s a switch-hitter with gap power that scouts believe still has a good deal of projection. He drastically reduced his strikeout rate and upped his walk rate between his sophomore and junior seasons. Kvasnicka’s father Jay was an eighth-round pick by the Minnesota Twins in 1988, reaching Triple-A before flaming out. (Bryan Smith)

34. Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez | RHP | California HS

Sanchez is considered a bit of a project with a good, low-90s fastball and curveball, but he lacks a third pitch. He has a very long stride and almost launches himself off the rubber, which could be contributing to his control issues. He’s committed to the University of Oregon. (Marc Hulet)

35. Atlanta Braves – Mike Lipka | SS | Texas HS

36. Boston Red Sox – Bryce Brentz | OF | Middle Tennessee State

Plagued by a stress fracture in his ankle this spring, Brentz didn’t dominate in his final season at MTSU like scouts thought he might. He’s a smart hitter with an easy swing, and he has the strength to hit for a good amount of power. Scouts like his potential in right field, given that he was a good reliever with the Blue Raiders in his career. (Bryan Smith)

37. Anaheim Angels – Taylor Lindsey | SS | Arizona HS

38. Toronto Blue Jays – Noah Syndergaard | RHP | Texas HS

39. Boston Red Sox – Anthony Ranaudo | RHP | Louisiana State

Talked about as a potential #1 overall pick before Harper joined this draft class, Ranaudo has had the worst spring possible. After he was slowed by shoulder stiffness as a freshman, Ranaudo missed part of the early season with a minor elbow injury in the spring. His size on the mound is daunting, and he gets good tilt on his fastball. The strength of his game is a really good curveball, but its consistency comes and goes. The team that drafts him will need a good explanation for why anyone so talented can post a 7.32 ERA in his draft year. (Bryan Smith)

40. Anaheim Angels – Ryan Bolden | OF | Mississippi HS

41. Toronto Blue Jays – Asher Wojciechowski | RHP | The Citadel

Wojciechowski currently leads Division I in both innings pitched (125.2) and strikeouts (155), which is a bit of a double-edged sword: on the one hand, he’s a proven workhorse. On the other, he has a lot of mileage on his arm. The team that drafts him would be well advised to give him some well-earned rest, and begin refining his slider and changeup in the fall. Some are calling him a future reliever, because while the fastball already plays, it might only be his slider that ever becomes a usable secondary offering. (Bryan Smith)

42. Tampa Bay Rays – Drew Vettleson | OF | Washington HS

43. Seattle Mariners – Taijuan Walker | RHP | California HS

44. Detroit Tigers – Nick Castellanos | SS/3B | Florida HS

Castellanos is a smart hitter that has shown the ability to hit to all fields, and has the body type of a future power hitter. It’s unlikely that a team will even bother having him play shortstop, his natural position, at the next level — Castellanos is a third baseman through and through. Marked up for his make-up, Castellanos impressed this spring by showing up stronger, and began convincing more and more scouts that his power will play professionally. It’s unlikely the University of Miami will see Castellanos reach Coral Gables. (Bryan Smith)

45. Texas Rangers – Luke Jackson | RHP | Florida HS

46. St. Louis Cardinals – Seth Blair | RHP | Arizona State University

Blair has a solid fastball that can touch 97 mph but it sits more comfortable (and consistently) in the 91-94 mph range. His repertoire also includes a good curveball and change-up. Blair has to potential to induce a solid number of ground balls and he’s’ even toyed with a cutter that could develop into a useful pitch under the right pitching coach. He has a tendency to be a little wild and throw a lot of pitches, so he needs to work at being more efficient. Blair was a solid draft prospect out of high school but signability concerns (Boras) caused the right-hander to slide to the end of the ’07 draft where Oakland took a flyer on him. (Marc Hulet)

47. Colorado Rockies – Peter Tago | RHP | California HS

Tago has a good pitcher’s frame and he has an easy, fluid throwing motion, which could help him avoid injury. his fastball sits in the low-90s and he also has a good curveball and needs to develop a change-up. Tago’s fastball and breaking ball both have good late movement through the zone. He’s committed to Cal State Fullerton. (Marc Hulet)

48. Detroit Tigers – Chance Ruffin | RHP | University of Texas

Another player with an MLB pedigree, Ruffin’s father Bruce pitched for 12 MLB seasons and spent time as both a starter and a reliever. The younger Ruffin projects as a reliever, although he did spend time in the starting rotation earlier on in his college career. He has a low-90s fastball, a plus slider and a curveball; his control might improve if he stood taller over the rubber. (Marc Hulet)

49. Texas Rangers – Mike Olt | 3B | UConn

50. St. Louis Cardinals – Tyrell Jenkins | RHP | Texas HS

A tough sign, Jenkins has been linked to the first round with the New York Yankees. He’s committed to Baylor University and is a quality football quarterback prospect. As a pitcher, the right-hander has a good low-to-mid 90s fastball but none of his secondary pitches – slider, curve, change – are overly developed. He’s a project with a high ceiling but some effort in his delivery. (Marc Hulet)


MLB Draft: A Recent History of Criticism

We often say on draft day and the days following, as a precursor, that you can’t judge a draft class until two or three years down the road. However, today you’ll find outlets across the interwebs – including this one at 7 p.m. EST– willing to judge immediately. I don’t know if tonight’s top 10 picks will have a surprise that throws off the mock drafters, but like every year, it will have a pick that we, the “experts”, question. As a review of how that usually turns out, here’s a look at six players over the last three years that have baffled the collective minds.

2007 Draft

Pittsburgh Pirates select Dan Moskos, lhp, Clemson. (Fourth Overall)
We wondered why he went before
: Ross Detwiler, lhp, Missouri State. (Matt Wieters, too).

The Pirates wrote off Wieters early in the spring, so while we wonder in hindsight how they could have passed on him, the narrative on draft day was why you’d lean Moskos over Detwiler. Pittsburgh did so intending to keep Moskos in the rotation – he’d had an up-and-down junior season as a starter after starring as a sophomore (and on Team USA) in a relief role. In two years as a starter, Moskos had a walk rate of 3.5, uninspiring strikeout rates, and was generally ineffective. But this year, in a return to the bullpen, he’s been really good: allowing just one earned run in four of his 21 Double-A outings. Time will tell on Moskos vs. Detwiler, but for the first time since he was drafted, I’m really starting to believe in the idea of Moskos the Major Leaguer.

Milwaukee Brewers select Matt LaPorta, LF (?), Florida. (Seventh Overall)
We wondered why he went before
: Quoting myself, minutes after the pick, “They must have some belief that LaPorta can play left, but here’s my question: if you want an outfielder with plus power, does LaPorta really project better than Jason Heyward?”

This was an even stranger pick at the time than Moskos, as the draft day buzz around LaPorta was more focused on the late first round. It would be unfair to limit LaPorta’s analysis to comparing him to Jason Heyward, though obviously that decision still baffles today. However, LaPorta is a big league player that was twice ranked among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects, so, he was probably undervalued by media outlets on draft day 2007. Still, it seemed clear even then that the Brewers may have taken LaPorta just to inevitably trade him, which they did in acquiring C.C. Sabathia in 2008. We should also mention that he’s been a mess this season, negating the value he provided last year (0.5 WAR) in a decent rookie cup of coffee.

2008 Draft

Houston Astros select Jason Castro, c, Stanford. (Tenth Overall)
We wondered why he went before
: Justin Smoak, Brett Wallace, 1Bs.

This was Bobby Heck’s first draft in Houston, so unlike when a revered scouting director like Tim Wilken drafts Tyler Colvin, we didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt. Castro was a guy that a lot of people liked, but he was also one without a track record: he’d hit .167 as a sophomore. I’m sure the Astros didn’t go into the draft thinking Smoak would even be available, but there he was — and no one had Castro ranked ahead of Smoak. That analysis still seems correct, but Castro has quieted a lot of critics, especially after a good 2009. He struggled early this season, his OPS at .603 on May 6, but he’s since hit .330/.422/.404. The power doesn’t look to be there, but Castro should make good on the expectations of a tenth overall pick.

2009 Draft

Pittsburgh Pirates select Tony Sanchez, c, Boston College (fourth overall)
We Wondered Why He Went Before
: A lot of pitchers and Grant Green, ss, USC.

This was problematic for a couple reasons. First, Pirates fans are particularly sensitive nowadays about going the inexpensive route. Second, Sanchez wasn’t being talked about as a top-5 overall player. Third, he didn’t really have a discernible plus tool. It was just puzzling across the board. But now, the catcher is batting a robust .318/.423/.460 in the Florida State League, showing patience and gap power. However, his defense – at times praised more than his bat entering last year’s draft – has really lagged behind. Sanchez has thrown out just 7 runners in 50 basestealing attempts, and leads the league with seven errors. I think the pick looks good right now, but I still have questions about his ultimate success. And why the Pirates made that pick.

Baltimore Orioles select Matt Hobgood, rhp, California HS (Fifth Overall)
We Wondered Why He Went Before
: Jake Turner, Matt Purke, Tyler Matzek.

With the next pick after Sanchez, the Baltimore Orioles made Matt Hobgood the first high school pitcher taken in the draft, a spot where no media outlet had him ranked. The Orioles, even more than the Pirates, were adamant that Hobgood was ranked higher on their boards than the other high school talents. Given this position by the Orioles, I wrote last year that Scouting Director Joe Jordan was “ballsy to not blame ownership and stand behind your scouting.” So far, the big right-hander has had a decidedly up and down first professional season. Hobgood has a 4.40 ERA in the Sally League, with a not-so-solid 39/26 K/BB ratio through 59.1 innings. However, he is showing a heavy fastball, given the 1.91 GO/AO ratio, and has showed brilliance at times. And given how seldom Turner and Matzek have pitched this spring, it’s not as if his peers are particularly outpacing him.

Atlanta Braves select Mike Minor, lhp, Vanderbilt (Seventh Overall)
We wondered why he went before
: Mike Leake, Aaron Crow, Alex White.

Considered the most egregious of the three 2009 surprises, I think this quote from Kevin Goldstein managed to put a finger on the complaints behind the pick: “It’s a horrible pick FOR ME, but I think early picks should be all about upside. Minor has a better shot of reaching [the] big leagues than anyone other than Strasburg in this thing, but his ceiling is a fourth starter.” But I suppose it’s only fitting that last year’s weirdest selection is this year’s biggest enigma. Minor seems a different pitcher in the Braves organization than he was in college, then lauded for his command and pitchability. Now, he’s among the minor league leaders with 91 strikeouts in 63.2 innings, but he’s been walking people, with 28 free passes handed out. Apparently, the Braves were keen on Minor’s development of his third pitch (curveball), and believed his change-up would play better in pro ball. Now, it just seems foolish we ever questioned the Braves fantastic scouting department.


But Yeah, Catcher > Outfielder

There is a player in this draft, you may have heard of him, that has already shown scouts an ability to catch, but may become an outfielder in professional baseball to expedite his timetable to the Major Leagues. The guy swings a big stick, after all, and despite good arm strength, is pretty raw behind the plate. The catcher vs. outfield question will surround him for the definite future. That guy is University of Minnesota right fielder Mike Kvasnicka. What? Not who you thought I was talking about?

What’s important to understand is Dave’s analysis that Bryce Harper should be moved to the outfield does not apply to most players. You don’t need me to tell you that Harper is a special breed, and that he should be treated like the odd-duck he is. I agree with Dave’s analysis, but want to point out that it does not apply to all bat-first, maybe-catchers, and Kvasnicka offers us a concrete example. The Golden Gopher slugger has been rumored as a back-up plan for teams drafting as high as the top 10, and shouldn’t go to bed tonight without knowing where his future lies. But his destination will only be with an organization that believes he can catch — and it only should be. Kvasnicka is a first rounder behind the plate, and a fifth rounder (at best) in the outfield.

Because Minnesota has a defense-first catcher named Kyle Knudson, Kvasnicka hasn’t caught much in three seasons, as scouts have just 38 attempted steals in three seasons to work off. Kvasnicka threw out just 10 of those runners, but you certainly can’t blame him for being raw. He didn’t even catch in the Northwoods League last summer, so scouts are left to really project how he’ll catch based on athleticism, arm strength, body type and more. But they will see it through rose-colored glasses, because they understand what we do: that over a full season, the positional adjustment difference between a catcher and a right fielder is 20 runs, or two wins.

The PNR Scouting Report for Kvasnicka reads thusly about his defense in right field: “[C]ould be an average defender at a corner with enough arm for right.” Let’s say, for illustration purposes, he is a league average right fielder, playing in 600 plate appearances per season. Or, given that he’s raw defensively, let’s say as a catcher that he’s minus-5 over 500 plate appearances. To be worth 3 WAR in RF, he would need to be +17.5 with the bat, or one of the best 60 hitters in any given season. At catcher, that bat would need to be worth just +5.8 to hit the three-win threshold, a far more achievable feat.

When you draft a player like Harper at first overall, and pay him what will be an eight-figure bonus, your worry is how to best set him up for prolonged Major League success. Dave is talking about 10,000 Major League plate appearances. For a draftee like Kvasnicka, your worry is getting him to the big leagues at all. We’re talking about a guy with gap power, who, in his first two seasons at Minnesota, posted a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 25-to-103. It was a much healthier 46/28 this season, but at a sink or swim position like right field, where you need a plus bat just to get an opportunity, his resume looks a little more dicey.

In prospect analysis, there is not one philosophy that can guide you through decision-making, instead, decisions have to be made on a case-by-case basis. For Harper, the right move is the outfield. For Kvasnicka, his only chance is probably behind the plate.