Regrettably, I began my series both reviewing draft history and previewing the 2010 draft position-by-position too late in the draft season. So, since we haven’t covered outfielders and pitchers — and because there’s no way I could cover all of them in one post — I’m not going to try. Instead, I’ll just post a bit about one unique story at each position.

Mike Leake was drafted in the top 10 last year not because of overwhelming stuff, but because the Reds believed he offered present value — and they have been proven right. There is something to be said for the guy that makes, and sticks, in the Major Leagues first. A win today is cheaper than it’s going to be next year (in theory), and Leake already has 1.6 WAR in 11 starts. This year, many have compared Ohio State RHP Alex Wimmers to Leake, because Wimmers is going to move fast.

I saw and wrote about Wimmers earlier in the spring — and came away from the start most intrigued by his change up. “The best development for the right-hander was the strength of his change up,” I wrote. “He struck out three LHHs with the pitch, and he showed plus feel throughout the game.” It seemed that I had mostly heard about the curveball prior to this season, though, so I became intrigued at how far this pitch has come.

“His first year, he came mostly out of the bullpen learning to command that curveball,” Ohio State pitching coach Eric Parker told me. As a freshman, Wimmers appeared in 25 games in relief, posting a 4.50 ERA, with a 51/31 K/BB ratio in 40 innings. “I had talked to him about adding a third pitch, but his curve was so good, he didn’t need it in relief. I blame myself — we didn’t talk about the change up much.”

Parker credited the work Wimmers put in that next summer, in the Valley League, as where he began the development of the pitch. Baseball America ranked him the #2 prospect in the league after that summer, highlighting his “excellent curveball with hard, late break.” But for the change-up, they were less complimentary: “His circle changeup is still a work in progress and is clearly his third-best pitch.”

The next spring was where Wimmers broke out, winning 9 games, finding a spot on the Division I leaderboard in strikeouts with 136 in 104.2 innings. The pitch had evolved, been turned from a weapon in the Valley League to a plus pitch, probably during fall practices with the Buckeyes. According to CollegeSplits, in 2009, he struck out 56 left-handed batters in 147 at-bats. Overall, lefties hit .231/.372/.299 against him. He had a new weapon in his arsenal.

Next was a stop in the Cape Cod League, where regular Cape attendee and blogger Greg Schimmel ranked him as the league’s seventh-best pitching prospect, behind likely first-rounders Chris Sale and Brandon Workman, among others. Schimmel wrote, “[H]is best pitch was definitely his 74-75 mph curveball…Wimmers also has a good 76-78 mph changeup with good downward movement.” The pitch seemed undervalued even then.

However, his Cape Cod League manager remembered it more fondly in a recent conversation. Bourne manager Harvey Shapiro hasn’t seen Wimmers this spring, so his scouting report dates back to last summer. But the praise for the changeup is bold. “I think his changeup is a plus-plus pitch,” Shapiro said. “Whether you’re a lefty or a righty, his is so good he can throw it to either.” That, in fact, is one thing that his OSU pitching coach Eric Parker referenced was a focal point this spring.

And, of course, the pitch has taken a life of its own this spring. The Baseball America scouting report for him now references that one scout has called the pitch the most advanced change he’s seen from an amateur. Lefties, against whom Parker called the changeup “unbelievably effective,” hit a rather unbelievable .110/.168/.120 off him this spring, with 43 strikeouts in 100 at-bats.

The key to the pitch came from both coaches, as Parker credited Wimmers for having “such great arm speed” on the pitch, and said he “maintains the same arm slot.” Shapiro, in a separate conversation, said: “He throws all three pitches from the same arm slot, and with the same arm speed.” Scouts often believe that college pitchers with changeups might be even better in pro ball, as they will have more confidence to throw the pitch against same side hitters when they are facing wood bats rather than aluminum. The team that thinks this applies to Wimmers will draft him very highly today. They will think that his three plus pitchers are good enough that he’ll move quickly, potentially contributing at the Major League level by 2012. I do, too.

This follows up yesterday’s piece about the history of first round third baseman. It follows the outline of similar pieces on the 2010 draft’s top catchers and shortstops.

Yesterday, I talked about how first round third baseman have done pretty well, at least relative to the other positions we’ve discussed thus far. They move quickly, and usually give you a pretty good idea of their future, as long as you wait to judge until they hit Double-A. There isn’t that luxury on draft day, as scouts will be working through the weekend to put their final reports on these players.

1. Zack Cox – University of Arkansas

One study that still needs to be done: how patience translates from college baseball to pro baseball, and more specifically, when it does not. I say this here because it seems to me that patience is more important in the development of Cox more than most players. There really isn’t a skill that Cox has shown consistently in two years: as a freshman, he was a swing-and-miss power third baseman. As a sophomore, he was a contact-ready, Dustin Ackley-like second baseman. In fact, how about a comparison of their sophomore seasons:

Ackley – 278 AB, 32 XBH, .417/.503/.597
Z. Cox – 213 AB, 20 XBH, .432/.516/.606

Very similar, but because he’s not consistent, and he’s not quick, Cox isn’t talked about in the same breath as Ackley. Instead, he’s a bit more befuddling. However, if we know that he’s a plus patience guy, like his numbers sort of suggest, then all you really need to project is either the hit tool or the power tool. However, if his patience erodes in pro ball, he’ll need both tools, and I wouldn’t be as confident. For what it’s worth: everything you hear about the hit tool suggests it’s going to play in pro ball. Perhaps speed is all that separates Ackley and Cox, after all.

2. Josh Sale – Bishop Blanchet HS (Wash.)

Sale is something of a familiar commodity in the first round: the slugger from a non-traditional baseball state. It seemed like, at least in my head, like we had one of those every year. So I went back through the logs, and noted every high school player drafted from bad weather states. Here’s the list:

2009 – Mike Trout (NJ)
2008 – Brett Lawrie (Canada)
2007 – Devin Mesoraco (PA), Jon Gilmore (IA)
2006 – Billy Rowell (NJ), Travis Snider (WA), Preston Mattingly (IN)
2004 – Neil Walker (PA), Blake Dewitt (MO)
2003 – Chris Lubanski (PA), Eric Duncan (NJ)
2001 – Joe Mauer (MN)
2000 – Rocco Baldelli (RI), Corey Smith (NJ), Scott Thorman (Canada), Aaron Herr (PA)

Even there, you can see that New Jersey and Pennsylvania are fairly standard pipelines to the first round. Sale is sometimes compared to Snider, but it’s a comparison born of laziness — his bat isn’t as polished, his body not as thick as Snider’s was in 2006. If I was going to reach for any comparison on the above list it might be Eric Duncan, although I can’t speak to whether Sale will swing-and-miss at such a rapid pace. It does sound like the power is going to play, however.

And unlike Duncan, and more like Manny Ramirez, Sale will probably not see the third base bag much in the minors. He’s been groomed to play right field, although no one seems to think he’ll be “plus” at the position. Since the difference between the positional adjustments is 10 runs, I might at least have Sale work with my infield instructors in short-season ball, and see if he could play there. After all, a minus-ten defender at third base is going to produce more WAR than a minus-five defender in right, all else being equal.

3. Kolbrin Vitek – Ball State University

I’m going to start with the defense. It sounds like scouts can’t make up their mind about Vitek’s defense, but if this makes sense, they already know his positional adjustment: +2.5. There is a chance he will play all 3 positions that are +2.5 as a professional: second, third and center field. And while the indecisions on his defense suggest maybe he doesn’t have a good glove — the boys at College Splits have numbers that suggest differently. Here’s what they sent me:

2009 (at 3B): +1
2010 (at 2B): +1

As an offensive player, there is little to pick apart. Forty extra-base hits, a good base stealer, a 33/36 walk-to-strikeout ratio in about 275 plate appearances. I think there is probably convincing that needs to be done about facing better quality players in bigger ballparks with wooden bats, but if he actually is a plus defender at a premium position, the climb isn’t so uphill.

Honorable Mention

Jedd Gyorko is painted as a sort of poor man’s Vitek, as he’s not as athletic, and even more questionable a defender. But his numbers are better than Vitek’s across the board. If you think he works at second, he’s worth a pick … Kaleb Cowart looks like he’ll be drafted in sort of the Casey Kelly mold, as a lot of teams still haven’t decided if he’s a hitter or a pitcher. The difference is that Cowart seems to have some pop in his bat, and his pitching won’t come as polished … I spoke with Tulane 3B Rob Segedin’s coach from last summer in the Cape Cod League, long time Bourne manager Harvey Shapiro, and he said, “Rob reminds me of Kevin Youkilis. Good baseball player. Comes to the ballpark with a smile on his face, he just loves to play. He’s a gap hitter, hits for doubles, doesn’t strike out that much. He’s an outstanding hitter.” Here’s how both players did in their final season:

Youkilis – 210 AB, 27 XBH, 59 BB, 21 K, .405/.549/.714
Segedin – 212 AB, 45 XBH, 33 BB, 20 K, .434/.516/.788

For the sake of expediting this series (which will not be finished before the draft, if it was ever intended to), and because they have an identical positional adjustment, and because the lines are so often blurred between the two, I have opted to mesh together third base and second base in my first round analysis. This is a series that began with catchers and moved onto shortstops. It also behooves me to mention that the foundation of this study is the draft database at Baseball-Reference and the career WAR newly available here at FanGraphs.

From 1988-2002, just eight second baseman were drafted in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. Half would not reach the Majors, and Chris Burke looks to be a 2001 draft bust. However, the position has had success stories with Todd Walker, Chase Utley and Mike Fontenot, to obviously varying degrees. By comparison, over that same 15-year stretch, 29 third baseman were taken in the first round. Only seven players failed to reach the big leagues, however, another nine players produced less than 2 WAR, making them busts by our standards.

Between the two positions, 11 players didn’t reach the Majors: seven were from four-year institutions, and four from high school. The 10 big-league busts (-2.1 to +1.4 WAR) were evenly split between the high school and college demographics. And finally, of the 16 success stories, we have 10 players drafted from universities, and six from high school. Said another way, the college players were 10-for-22 (45.5%) in having big league success, while the high school players were 6-for-15 (40%). Here are those success stories, ranked by career WAR:

Name                 WAR     From
Manny Ramirez        71.0     HS
Robin Ventura        61.3      U
Chase Utley          41.5      U
Troy Glaus           36.1      U
David Wright         33.9     HS
Mark Teixeira        33.4      U
Eric Chavez          32.0     HS
Pat Burrell          21.2      U
Phil Nevin           18.1      U
Dmitri Young         16.3     HS
Todd Walker          11.6      U
Ed Sprague            6.6      U
Sean Burroughs        6.2     HS
Mike Fontenot         4.8      U
Mark Teahen           4.0      U
Shane Andrews         3.5     HS

I find this to be a very impressive group. You just don’t find very often in draft analysis any sample of 37 players, that almost a third would hit the double-digit mark in career WAR. This has been a highly successful position, ranging from Ventura and Sprague in the 1988 draft to Teixeira and Wright in the 2001 draft. Our goal in this series has been, and continues to be to search the numbers to see what separated the successes from the busts in the minor leagues.

And today, I don’t want to waste your time. I don’t think we can tell anything from a third baseman’s build entering the draft whether he will become a star or not. I think analyzing players by their statistics in A-ball is dangerous — only 4 of the “success” stories even played in Low-A, and you see a lot of variance in how players performed in High-A. It tells you something, but you still must be careful.

However, after a first round third baseman’s first prolonged stay in Double-A, you can with faith make a pretty good guess as to whether they will become a successful Major League hitter or not. (There are just not enough second baseman for me to include them in this part of the study.) The results are staggering. Of the 29 third baseman drafted in the first round from 1988-2002, twenty-five of them had Double-A experience. Twelve of them would produce at least 3.5 WAR in the Major Leagues. Thirteen of them would be busts by any rational standard. Here are the 25 players first tastes of Double-A, ranked by OPS (success stories in bold):

Name                PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Troy Glaus         230     309     430     691    1122
David Wright       272     363     467     619    1086
Pat Burrell        498     333     438     631    1068
Eric Chavez        384     328     402     612    1014
Mark Teixeira      200     316     415     591    1006
Manny Ramirez      396     340     414     581     995
Mark Teahen        229     335     419     543     962
Phil Nevin         413     294     397     561     958
Chris Haas         531     274     382     488     870
Anthony Williams   446     309     383     469     852
Scott Stahoviak    393     272     375     462     837
Shane Andrews      512     260     352     457     809
Sean Burroughs     461     291     383     401     784
Mike Bell          533     267     329     442     771
Robin Ventura      559     278     403     361     764
Matt Whitney       531     268     356     404     760
Jorge Fabregas     444     289     338     411     749
Jason Romano       620     271     343     389     732
Scott Thorman      387     252     326     406     731
Tony Torcato       163     293     344     388     731
Jeff Liefer        524     238     302     422     724
Jake Gautreau      494     242     324     393     717
Dmitri Young       177     247     294     392     685
Mike Groppuso      411     241     314     370     684
Dan Cholowsky      254     217     340     325     665

A third of the players had a .900 OPS in Double-A. All of them produced at the Major League level, and everyone except Teahen has more than 15 WAR to their name. The players bashed at different ages, in different parks, in different leagues. But it didn’t matter. I looked back at even more data. In 30 years, we have had about 11 first round third baseman OPS .900 at Double-A, and all have produced at least 4 WAR at the big league level. The sample is still small, but I still find it significant.

And on the opposite end, only one player (D. Young) posted an OPS under .750 and went on to big league success. In just this 15-year sample, nine (of 13) busts did. If we look at the next few years, that group would be joined by Matt Moses, Brian Snyder and Eric Duncan. If you’re thinking this is bad news for the likes of Josh Vitters, Matt Dominguez, Lonnie Chisenhall and a few others — my thoughts exactly. And, even amidst some early season struggles in Triple-A, I do believe more than ever that Pedro Alvarez‘ bat will play in the Major Leagues.

I do want to stress that this should hardly serve as a steadfast rule — over .900 you’re a star, under .750 you’re a bust — but rather as a history lesson, and maybe a tool in the quickest-and-dirtiest analysis possible. I do think we can use this time to be reminded that we don’t really know a player until he sees Double-A, and his production at that level can be very telling as far as his future is concerned.

Today we work our way through the rest of the college baseball postseason bracket. I began this run through the 64 teams yesterday. A copy of the bracket can be found at Baseball America.

Gainesville Regional: #1 Florida, #2 Florida Atlantic, #3 Oregon State, #4 Bethune-Cookman.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: One of 2 closers: Kevin Chapman, lhp, Florida or Kevin Rhoderick, rhp, Oregon State.

If you haven’t heard of Chapman, he’s the Gators lefty closer rising up draft boards with every 95 mph moving fastball he throws. Left-handed hitters, according to my friends at College Splits, have amassed a ridiculous .263 OPS against him this season. Rhoderick’s big velocity has been more consistent in his three years at OSU, and Pat Casey will turn him loose for as much as three innings to try and grab wins this weekend. I think they can beat a solid FAU team in the opener, but beating Florida twice is a whole different matter. You need a lot of pitching to move through regional weekend, and the Gators might have the nation’s deepest staff. The pick: Florida.

Norwich Regional: #1 Florida State, #2 Connecticut, #3 Oregon, #4 Central Connecticut.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Tyler Holt, of, Florida State.

You will notice this is the one regional in which the #1 seed is not hosting, as the NCAA looks to expand college baseball’s popularity to new regions. So these four will play in Connecticut, where a very likable Huskies team will play underdog in their own ballpark. I’d be remiss not to point your attention to UConn 2B Pierre LePage, who struck out in last weekend’s Big East Tournament. It was news, because it was just the third time he’d done so in more than 250 plate appearances this season. They open their weekend against an amazing story — the Oregon Ducks, who made the tournament in the program’s second year of existence. They did so because of legendary coach George Horton’s ability to recruit pitchers (3.28 team ERA), namely ace Tyler Anderson (101 K’s in 95 IP). Florida State will await the winner, with their usual blend of great hitters and an enigmatic pitching staff. This has the makings to be the weekend’s most entertaining regional. The pick: Connecticut.

Louisville Regional: #1 Louisville, #2 Vanderbilt, #3 Illinois State, #4 Saint Louis.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Couldn’t decide, so I turned to Baseball America and John Manuel. To quote the Twitter: “Thomas Royse, rhp, Louisville, No. 182 on our top 200.”

This is really what the college baseball postseason is about. You have a veteran, well-coached Louisville team, against a young, uber-talented Vanderbilt squad. Throw in a potential Cinderella story like Illinois State, and you understand why this weekend is fun. However, I don’t want to paint the perception that Louisville isn’t talented, or Vanderbilt well coached. Quite the opposite. The host Cardinals have a slew of big league prospects on both sides of the ball. They have five double-digit home run guys, and more than one really good pitching prospect: Royse, Koch, Holland, Zych. Vanderbilt is a team that has played well a year earlier than expected, but have at least the regional’s two best players: sophomore RHP Sonny Gray and SS Jason Esposito. The pick: Louisville.

Fayetteville Regional: #1 Arkansas, #2 Washington State, #3 Kansas State, #4 Grambling.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Zack Cox, 3B/2B, Arkansas.

This is an interesting regional, because Arkansas is the most talented by a significant margin, but both Cougars teams are battle-tested and very interesting. Kansas State lost a lot of talent a year ago, but has found success by preaching to their hitters to get on base (team .427 OBP) and to take chances on the bases (114/149 in 56 games). Washington State is a team that keeps the ball in the park, and defends the baseball well. It’s not often to see a team that doesn’t beat themselves in college baseball, but that’s the kind of program Donnie Marbut has built. However, Arkansas should win this regional. They’ll get both offensive and pitching contributions from Brett Eibner, and Drew Smyly is a worthy ace. The pick: Arkansas.

Myrtle Beach Regional: #1 Coastal Carolina, #2 College of Charleston, #3 N.C. State, #4 Stony Brook.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Cody Wheeler, lhp, Coastal Carolina.

If the Columbia, South Carolina regional is this draft’s most prospect-laden, then just 3 hours east is the least prospect-laden. Coastal Carolina is a fantastic baseball team, capable of home runs (99 in 58 games), steals (146), a pitching staff that can strike you out (479 K’s in 522 IP) and keeps the ball in the park (27 home runs allowed). But they are doing so with fringe prospects, like Wheeler or shortstop Scott Woodward, who has a .504 OBP and is 48-for-54 on the bases. They should roll through this regional, as Charleston and N.C. State can both hit (both team OPS above .930) but neither can pitch (team ERA above five). The pick: Coastal Carolina.

Fort Worth Regional: #1 Texas Christian, #2 Baylor, #3 Arizona, #4 Lamar.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Steven Maxwell, rhp, TCU.

The Horned Frogs program has evolved from a Mountain West Conference powerhouse into a national title contender; few teams in the nation are as talented and well-balanced in both offense and pitching. There isn’t an arm on that staff that coach Jim Schlossnagle can’t trust, and it’s buoyed by the three starters: junior Steven Maxwell, sophomore Kyle Winkler and freshman Matt Purke. The latter is the nation’s best left-handed arm and a 2011 top-ten pick. Baylor has a similar amount of depth, but their pitchers are extremely inconsistent. The 2010 draft will see rhp Craig Fritsch and closer Brooks Pinckard in the top ten rounds, but both have their warts. This has been an overachieving year for Arizona because of a good freshman class. I doubt they are ready to shock the world. The pick: TCU.

Atlanta Regional: #1 Georgia Tech, #2 Alabama, #3 Elon, #4 Mercer.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Deck McGuire, rhp, Georgia Tech.

Alabama comes in playing very well, but the question will be whether they have the bats to keep pace with some powerful offenses in Georgia Tech and Elon. Like many of these regionals, the big decision is whether Alabama tosses ace Jimmy Nelson at the Phoenix, or whether he holds him to try to set up a more favorable match-up against McGuire and the Yellow Jackets. This is the deepest staff that Tech has had in awhile, though, and it matches with a lineup that includes seven double-digit home run guys. The pick: Georgia Tech.

Norman Regional: #1 Oklahoma, #2 California, #3 North Carolina, #4 Oral Roberts.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Matt Harvey, rhp, North Carolina.

Our final regional shows the respect the committee had for the big conferences, as this includes the eighth Pac-10 team I have talked about in two days, and a UNC team that really backed its way into a postseason berth. For what it’s worth, I do think the Tar Heels are the better of the two teams, and the first mound match-up will be intriguing. We should see Harvey against Cal’s Justin Jones, where Harvey will be pitching for a spot in the first half of the first round. The question, for me, is whether North Carolina can match the depth of an Oklahoma team that goes ten, twelve deep in the bullpen. I don’t love the Sooners starters, but with a good bullpen and a powerful offense, winning a regional at home should certainly be in the cards.

The NCAA Tournament Field of 64 was announced yesterday. You can find a copy of the bracket at Baseball America. The regionals are a double-elimination, four-team tournament that is hosted by each of the top 16 teams in the country. Below is half the bracket.

Tempe Regional: #1 Arizona State, #2 San Diego, #3 Hawaii, #4 Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: The Blair “Brothers” (Seth and Kyle), rhp’s, ASU and USD respectively.

This should be a straight-forward regional for the Sun Devils to get through, but San Diego is no easy opponent in a short series. The team could hypothetically throw star senior A.J. Griffin (107 K’s in 94 IP) in the opener against Hawaii, which would allow them to retain top prospects Kyle Blair (118 K’s in 90 IP) and LHP Sammy Solis (87 in 87) for two games against Arizona State. Still, it takes a tough prospect to shut down ASU’s .340/.436/.533 offense, led by FanGraphs favorite sophomore, Zack MacPhee. I also expect scouts to really like what they see from catcher/closer draft-eligible sophomore Jordan Swagerty, who is a gamer that should move quickly as a reliever in pro ball. The pick: ASU.

Coral Gables Regional: #1 Miami, #2 Texas A&M, #3 Florida Int’l, #4 Dartmouth.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Yasmani Grandal, c, Miami.

The eyes of SportsCenter will be on this regional, as FIU’s Garrett Wittels looks to continue his 53 game hit streak alive, presumably against likely first-round pick Barret Loux (126 K in 96 IP) and the Aggies. However, as is often true with the regionals, I don’t see Texas A&M moving on unless they risk saving Loux for Game 2, as the rest of the Aggies staff will have trouble with the bats of Grandal and stud sophmore Harold Martinez (19 HR). This is a good-not-great Miami team, but it’s also not the most dangerous regional. The pick: Miami.

Charlottesville Regional: #1 Virginia, #2 Ole Miss, #3 St. John’s, #4 Virginia Commonwealth.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Mississippi.

College pundits agree that Virginia should have been a top-4 overall seed (in the mix for #1 much of the season), but instead Coastal Carolina got the 4, and Virginia got the 5. The Ole Miss Rebels will probably have to throw Pomeranz against the Big East champion St. John’s Red Storm, who enter the tournament playing their best baseball of the season. Virginia, on the other hand, can save dynamic sophomore Danny Hultzen (62 H, 20 BB in 93 IP) for the second game. The most interesting player to scout is probably Virginia’s Jarrett Parker (.330/.418/.583), as scouts have precious little time to decide if he’s a tweener in the outfield or not. The pick: Virginia.

Auburn Regional: #1 Auburn, #2 Clemson, #3 Southern Miss, #4 Jacksonville State.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Either Hunter Morris, 1b, Auburn or Kyle Parker, of, Clemson.

Southern Miss has the pressure of playing for Brett Favre’s future on their shoulders, but also have an experienced team, and probably the regional’s best player: sophomore SS B.A. Vollmuth (.378/.487/.716). I think they can beat a powerful, enigmatic Clemson team in the opener, and will still have experience in the second game against Auburn. The host team has four players with 15 home runs in their lineup, but a pitching staff that has been pieced together all season. This will be an interesting regional, and I think I’m picking a Favre-fueled upset. The pick: Southern Miss.

Austin Regional: #1 Texas, #2 Rice, #3 Louisiana Lafayette, #4 Rider.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas.

The Longhorns are simply an Omaha-built machine, and will continue their trek there as long as they don’t pitch to 2011 likely #1 pick Anthony Rendon of Rice (.393/.532/.787). The Rice Owls have the potential to put together an upset, but you never know which Rice team will show up, and their pitching staff is a little too pitch-to-contact for my liking. Texas is just the opposite, as you’ll see coach Augie Garrido ride the arms of four pitchers (Workman, Cole Green, Taylor Jungmann and closer Chance Ruffin), who have combined for 358 strikeouts in 352 innings. The pick: Texas.

Fullerton Regional: #1 Cal State Fullerton, #2 Stanford, #3 New Mexico, #4 Minnesota.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Christian Colon, ss, Fullerton.

A four-seed and a trip to California is a tough assignment for the Big 10 champion Golden Gophers, but they also bring two pretty good draft prospects to try and pull off a Cinderella upset: catcher Mike Kvasnicka (.350/.462/.562) and ace Seth Rosin (5.02 ERA). Kvasnicka will be tested often against a Fullerton squad that runs early and often, swiping 103 bases (in 142 attempts) over 56 games this season. They also have a very good pitching staff that has amassed a 435-135 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 500 innings. I don’t love these middle seeds very much, but New Mexico has a more solid group. Unless they drop the opening game, expect Fullerton to walk. The pick: Fullerton.

Los Angeles Regional: #1 UCLA, #2 LSU, #3 UC Irvine, #4 Kent State.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Anthony Ranaudo, rhp, LSU.

Getting publicity as the regional of death, because we’re talking about three preseason top 10 teams. UCLA has been the most consistent due to a team 3.02 ERA. They give you no break, as the top three starters — 2010 prospect Rob Rasmussen and 2011 studs Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer — combined for 349 strikeouts in 281.2 innings. The returning champion LSU Tigers have had an injury plagued tumultuous season, but are really dangerous. I eagerly await to see when they pitch Ranaudo, be it the opener against UC Irvine, or if the more consistent Austin Ross gets that nod. Irvine has a veteran team, a trio of aces and an offense that doesn’t strike out. The pick: UC Irvine.

Columbia Regional: #1 South Carolina, #2 Virginia Tech, #3 The Citadel, #4 Bucknell.
Best 2010 Draft Prospect: Asher Wojciechowski, rhp, Citadel.

If I had to guess where the majority of scouting directors start their weekend, it would be here in Columbia. There is no doubt that The Citadel will start Wojciechowski in their opener, and whichever Hokies pitcher goes — ace Justin Wright, top prospect Jesse Hahn, or enigmatic Matthew Price — it will be a battle of two highly regarded prospects. Throw in Hokies star hitter Austin Wates (.373/.486/.593) and a prospect-laden Gamecocks crew, and there’s a lot to see in South Carolina. The pick: Virginia Tech.

This is the final part in a three part series on first round shortstops. On Wednesday, I looked at a 15-year history. On Thursday, I looked at the shortstop prospects still in the minors. Today: the 2010 draftees.

If the last two days have proven anything, it’s that scouting directors often use their first pick on a shortstop, but that it doesn’t-so-often result in a future big league regular entering the organization. In 22 years, we have, I think, eight players that I think will go down as elite draft picks: Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Chuck Knoblauch, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Mike Moustakas. The latter is me going out on a ledge, and you might be able to add 2-3 more guys to the list, but we’re talking about eight stars in 98 attempts. Today, I’ll run through the three consensus first rounders that will try to join that list, before hitting on four that might slip into the first round in the honorable mention section. (Note: These rankings are not my own, but what seems to be the consensus in the industry. You’ll get a feeling on whether or not I agree in my write-up.)

1. Manny Machado, Brito Miami Private School

As best I can tell, Machado is about 10 days from becoming the 22nd player drafted as a high school shortstop in the top five picks. Since he’s from Miami, people always have to mention Alex Rodriguez, but never seem to bring up failed 1979 fifth overall pick Juan Bustabad. Of that group, only the Upton Brothers, Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Josh Booty were Machado’s size, so he’s in solid company in that regard. I also think his hit tool is probably better than everyone’s except Moustakas and Justin Upton since A-Rod was drafted. He’s going to be a big leaguer.

In watching him on videos, there is no denying his bat speed. Also, the MLB.com draft video has two different triples on the highlight reel, and Machado makes it from home-to-third in more time than I would have expected. Like Bryce Harper, I do wonder if the desire to keep him at his position will prolong his development: you have to think Machado would move quicker if he was thrown into right field and told to just worry about his hitting. The best compromise is probably third base, where he still gets a positive positional adjustment, can still show off his big arm, and has a chance to be plus defensively.

2. Nick Castellanos, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Fla.)

There are a lot of iffy things in Castellanos’ scouting report that make me worry he might become a bust. At 6-foot-4, there is a chance he isn’t even announced as a shortstop on draft day — he’s a third baseman, realistically. But with the downgrade on the defensive spectrum comes heightened offensive expectations, and I’m not sure Castellanos can deliver. No one seems convinced about either hit tool, and specifically if his raw power will ever develop with a wood bat. We’ve been down this road with prospects in the past, and it doesn’t work out well.

And yet, Castellanos is also fairly unique. There aren’t a lot of players that were drafted as shortstops listed at 6-foot-4, and if you see Castellanos, there is no doubt he has room to fill out. In looking back, maybe he’ll be a bit like Sergio Santos, or a bit like Brandon Wood. Hopefully he avoids the fate suffered by Matt Halloran or Mark Farris, or maybe the team that drafts him tries to make him a catcher, a la Joe Lawrence or Michael Barrett. We can wish for him the minor league success of Kevin Witt and Kevin Orie, the best comps as far as body type go, but better big league success would be nice. I don’t really see it, though.

3. Christian Colon, Cal State Fullerton

I don’t think we can ignore that Colon’s last summer, with Team USA, was one of the best national team performances we’ve seen. He was slow out of the gate this season, but really came back, and continued to show his contact abiliy. In over 700 at-bats at Fullerton, Colon now has a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 73-64, and also has a habit of getting plunked. Defensively, he’s probably a tweener; a below-average shortstop, a solid-average second baseman. I’m guessing his lack of speed will get him moved to second eventually.

Like a right-handed Adrian Cardenas, Colon’s biggest praise comes from his hit tool, and the rest of the praise comes from his work ethic. He showed last summer how good he can be with wood, and I have no question he’ll be able to hit for a high average, and walk enough to post a good OBP. A career path resembling Cliff Pennington’s wouldn’t shock me, so ultimately, I think a team needs to decide if that is the value they want from their first rounder. Could be.

Honorable Mention

I wrote about Derek Dietrich a couple weeks ago, and he could slide into the supplemental first round if a team thinks he could play second base. The most encouraging thing about his All-American season was the drastic slash in strikeouts … Some people really like Utah high school product Marcus Littlewood, a 6-foot-3 switch-hitter. But to me, his left-handed swing is a mess, and he swings through a lot of pitches. I almost think you let him go to college and check back in three years … I do like Yordy Cabrera, another big “shortstop” that will eventually move to third or the outfield. One look at a video of Cabrera and you see his power, which seems more present than his peers. He seems to be someone that is worth the seven figure risk … Finally, I think we’ll see Indiana shortstop Justin O’Connor in the first round, as he has real believers in a lot of his tools: plus-plus arm strength, a good-looking swing, some power projection. His ultimate position is in question, and while he looks very raw behind the plate, it might be worth it for a team to dedicate development time to that endeavor.

Since 2003, another 30 shortstops have been taken in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. This includes a guy who might become the best college shortstop drafted in 25 years, and the biggest draft bust the position has even seen. You have Aaron Hill, Adam Jones, Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Cliff Pennington and Gordon Beckham who have already established themselves as big league regulars. There is C.J. Henry, who left baseball to play with his brother on the Kansas basketball team. And Brandon Wood, perhaps the most frustrating of all.

Today, I won’t be talking about those 10 players above. I also won’t talk about Emmanuel Burriss or Omar Quintanilla, both of whom are injured and not particularly exciting. Justin Jackson is injured and moderately exciting, but we’ll wait to talk about him once he’s healthy. That leaves us 17 players that run the gamut on the prospect scale to talk about today.

The Most Likely Busts

Since we agreed not to talk about Matt Bush, this is heretofore known as the Preston Mattingly group, as the former Dodgers supplemental first rounder has never really done anything as a professional that is prospect worthy. It’s premature to think of Ryan Dent as a bust, as he did have a .350 OBP in Low-A as a 20-year-old, but I don’t have super-high hopes for the former 62nd overall pick. I have more confidence calling Anthony Hewitt a bust, as he now has a 22/188 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 545 career plate appearances. And a .625 OPS.

Trevor Plouffe continues to get better and better, but if we stick from what we learned yesterday, I don’t see him ever becoming a viable Major League regular. His OBP in Low-A was .300, and his AA career was just .272/.326/.410. I feel the same way about Pete Kozma, who really doesn’t have a skill worth praising. The bench is his only big league future.

The It’s Not Looking Great Group

It feels like Chris Nelson and Tyler Greene have been around forever, teasing people with their abilities. We thought Nelson was a prospect in 2004 and 2007, he looked like a bust in 2005, 2006 and 2008. He’s now battled health problems, but has looked okay in 2009 and 2010. Probably a bench player, but the Rockies have a not-horrible back up plan if Tulowitzki were to go down. Greene will never make enough contact to be a viable regular, but he could be a really good bench player considering his glove, his baserunning and his power.

I am cautiously pessimistic about Ryan Flaherty, especially after he fell flat on his face with an Opening Day assignment to Double-A. The Cubs probably should have left him in Tennessee to figure things out, as he is clearly good enough to handle the Florida State League (.333/.402/.514). He’s the best member of this tier, but I also don’t get a great feeling. From talking with people, he seems like a prospect whose whole is less than the sum of his parts.

Finally, we have the 2009 draftees that are struggling mightily out of the gate: the Astros Jiovanni Mier and Diamondbacks prospect Chris Owings. Mier has been a complete mess in the Sally League, .210/.308/.263, but he’s a really good athlete that’s walking enough (11 BB%) to keep me from closing the book. Owings batting line of .291/.309/.419 in the Midwest League is actually pretty good, but his 4-36 walk-to-strikeout rate is not.

The Prospects

In my first draft of this piece, I contemplated ranking Reese Havens as a blue-chip guy. He was close. But the quantity of injury problems, many to his back, have me worried. The Mets now know he isn’t really a shortstop, but I think he can be a really solid second baseman down the line. Adrian Cardenas shares the left-handed, second base profile, but doesn’t share much else with Havens. Ability to make contact is his best skill, and maybe his only one.

Drew Cumberland is a long-time favorite of mine, and enjoying a fantastic breakout season in the Cal League. But it’s not really a breakout as much as a healthy season, as Cumberland is just doing everything he’s done before (with a little more power). He makes contact, he takes his walks, he steals bases, has enough pop, and he sticks up the middle. He’s a good prospect. In the same league, and less impressively so, is Grant Green. It’s far too early to make a call on Green, but he’s striking out too much, and not hitting for the power I thought he would. He’s holding onto prospect status for dear life at this point.

The Blue Chippers

Mike Moustakas really took a hit in prospect circles when he hit just .250/.297/.421 last year in the Carolina League. But, yesterday’s article taught us that High-A has historically been the least important level in a first round shortstop’s development, and really, Moustakas’ .272/.337/.468 line at 19 in the Midwest League the year prior was pretty good. I saw him take batting practice that year, and it was one of the most impressive shows I’ve seen a hitter put on at that level. He’s now hitting .377/.463/.770 in 150 plate appearances at Double-A, and I have a lot of faith that he’ll be a star in Kansas City.

There have been few 2009 draft picks that have been as impressive as Nick Franklin, the 27th overall pick for the Seattle Mariners. We know that the best shortstop picks have established themselves right off the bat, and Franklin seems to be doing that at age 19 in the Midwest League. He now has 23 extra-base hits in 195 plate appearances, and is hitting .317/.361/.567 overall. He’s splitting time between shortstop and second, but right now, and draws praise for his athleticism.

If I’m telling you we never should have given up on Mike Moustakas, I’m not ready to turn my back on Tim Beckham, either. A recent hot streak has really helped matters, but still, he now has a .706 OPS, and his career minor league batting line is .258/.319/.383. The walks are up, the power looks up, but Beckham is a very mistake-prone player. I’m waiting until Double-A to begin to make declaritive statements about the Rays passing on Buster Posey for Beckham, but just know that I’m tempted.

I’ll close things out with a quick ranking today: Moustakas, Franklin, Beckham, Cumberland, Havens, Cardenas, Green, Flaherty. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with the 2010 draft’s shortstop prospects.

This is a continuation from a series that began last week with catchers.

From 1988-2002, sixty-eight shortstops were drafted in the first round (and supplemental first round) of the June Amateur Draft. Twenty-two of these players would never play in the Major Leagues, a group that includes a whopping 19 high school picks, two college players, and one Puerto Rico draftee. Twenty-three other players were Major League busts, with less than 2 career WAR to their name. This group includes 14 more high school picks, eight college guys, and another player taken out of Puerto Rico.

This leaves 23 shortstops, about 34%, that made some good on their bonus money at the Major League level. However, just eight players (11.8%) were good enough to produce more than 12 WAR in the big leagues (Note: I think this number will rise by at least two before Kelly Johnson and B.J. Upton finish their careers). Here are all 23 players:

Name                   WAR     From 
Alex Rodriguez        105.2      HS
Chipper Jones          83.2      HS
Derek Jeter            69.5      HS
Nomar Garciaparra      43.1       U
Chuck Knoblauch        42.7       U
Brian Roberts          27.5       U
Royce Clayton          20.4      HS
Adam Kennedy           18.4       U
Felipe Lopez           12.5      HS
Preston Wilson         12.3      HS
Michael Tucker         11.7       U
B.J. Upton             10.8      HS
Mike Cuddyer           10.6      HS
Kelly Johnson           9.8      HS
Adam Everett            9.7       U
Khalil Greene           9.1       U
Pokey Reese             7.3      HS
Bobby Crosby            6.6       U
Willie Greene           5.0      HS
Brent Gates             4.5       U
Kevin Orie              3.6       U
Russ Johnson            3.3       U
Benji Gil               2.5      HS

To recap a little bit, this means that the 68 shortstops drafted over 15 years were distributed like this: 45 high school players, 21 college players and two Puerto Ricans. While the latter two didn’t work out, the college shortstops had a 52% success rate (if we define success as eventually producing 2 WAR, which is a dubious distinction at best), while high school players “succeeded” at just a 25% level. But, if you want to know why scouting directors continue to fall for the toolsy prep shortstop, take a look at that leaderboard again: Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter have passed a combined 250 Wins Above Replacement, handily outpacing the other 65 players combined.

You would be astute to point out that Rodriguez, Jones and Jeter weren’t like all the other high school shortstops, as these were elite guys. Rodriguez was a consensus #1 guy in his draft class, Jones was a consensus top two pick, and Jeter easily in the top ten. But, if we limited ourself just to shortstops drafted in the top ten, we have 16 data points, and eight of them produced 5 WAR in the big leagues, drafted in this position: first, first, second, sixth, eighth, ninth, ninth, tenth. Only one player didn’t reach the big leagues (1999 draft’s #4 pick, Corey Myers), though six others have a negative before their career WAR number. And if you’re scoring at home, that means the first-round shortstops drafted after 10th overall consist of 52 players, and just 10 of them would reach the 5 WAR watermark.

Like I did with catchers, I want to look at the success stories, and see what their minor league production looked like. To keep the number of players palatable, I limited the group to only the 17 players that produced seven or more WAR, in other words, everyone above Bobby Crosby in the previous table. And then, because I don’t think we learn much from them, I removed Royce Clayton, Adam Everett and Pokey Reese. These were guys whose offensive identity really didn’t matter a whole lot, so we can sum up their path to the big leagues like this: “really impressed scouts with their defense.”

Builds

All over the map, but I do want to use this space to talk about ultimate position. Of the 13 players we’re looking at, just Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Khalil Greene and Felipe Lopez were primary shortstops during their career. We can probably throw A-Rod into this group, too, but still, it’s certainly not rare for these guys not to last long at shortstop. Michael Tucker never played a game at shortstop, and just a year at second base, while Mike Cuddyer was there just a year. Four players would make second base their home, and then five split between third base and the outfield. But with heights ranging from 5-9 to 6-3, and with weights from 165-210, I don’t think we need to put a lot of stock in that.

Low-A Production

This was actually more impressive than I would have guessed. I have 10 players show up with Low-A experience, and really only Brian Roberts wasn’t young for the level (201 PA’s at age 21). And, to boot, Roberts .240/.347/.323 line was the second worst of the bunch. The worst belongs to Preston Wilson, who was the only high school draftee to post a Low-A OBP below .350. Of the other seven teenage performances, the worst OBP is Felipe Lopez at .351, and the worst slugging is Jeter at .394. Honors for top prize are between Alex Rodriguez (.319/.379/.605) and Kelly Johnson (.289/.404/.513).

High-A Production

This was usually a step down for the players, as even Chipper Jones hit a paltry .277/.353/.413. The better guys didn’t end up as the better players down the road in the Major Leagues, so I’m inclined to really look at High-A performances and just wait and see until we get a nice sample in Double-A. But props to Michael Tucker (.305/.391/.456) and Mike Cuddyer (.298/.403/.470) for what they did.

Double-A Production

I can remember now that when the B.J. Upton hype machine was in full swing, we compared his .301/.391/.426 line in AA (at ages 18 and 19) to Alex Rodriguez (at age 18) hitting .288/.391/.441. But what should be noted is that the best guys didn’t last long at this level, and they hit it well. It took a guy like Cuddyer two years to figure it out, and Nomar wasn’t very good (.267/.338/.384), but a quick move to Triple-A and onto the Majors was a good sign.

Triple-A Production

I like this. The best performances were by Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra, with Chipper Jones not far behind. Derek Jeter posted his best minor league numbers in Triple-A, and Khalil Greene looked pretty human. It’s hard in prospect analysis to wait to decide on a player until Triple-A, but with first round shortstops, it seems hard to make a definitive opinion much before then.

Bust Production

As I look at each player that failed, and his minor league path before then, it quickly jumped out at me that Low-A is a really important barometer for shortstops. I said above that the good players had .350 OBP’s in Low-A, where that was pretty rare for the failed prospects. I think of guys like Jason Repko and Aaron Herr, who would go on to tease scouts with some pretty solid performances in Double-A and Triple-A as they moved up the ladder. But Repko had hit .220/.257/.329 in Low-A, and Herr was .248/.283/.366. The fact is, for the most part, these highly athletic players tend to do a good job hitting mediocre Low-A pitching.

And for the players that teased in the low minors, a guy like Josh Burrus for example, then Double-A was usually a harsh reminder of reality. I continue to think that High-A is a weird unimportant stop in the development of first round shortstops — I don’t really have a hypothesis why this is true — but it’s clear that Low-A and Double-A are better barometers of how a player will mature. I’m trying to be careful making blanket statements, lest I’d have thought Nomar Garciaparra or Preston Wilson were busts prematurely, but I think we all understand the point.

High school shortstops are dangerous, dangerous uses of first round picks. The college variety is safer, but you really are just looking for a 5-20 WAR player in the end. And, with everyone, the best way to tell a fraud from a prospect is to see how they do out of the gate, and then check back in when they get to Double-A. And, for what it’s worth, the chance the player stays at shortstop is almost non existent.

One constant in minor league analysis is the term “Age Relative to League,” which is another contextual barrier that must be considered in any prospect report. This season, four players have been regulars in High-A while still in a teenage season: Jay Austin (Astros), Anthony Gose (Phillies), Daniel Fields (Tigers) and Wilfredo Tovar (Mets). Austin and Gose are in their second full professional seasons, while Fields garnered a surprise assignment to Lakeland, and Tovar seems to be in High-A only because Wilmer Flores has the shortstop position locked down in Low-A. So while I could tell you that Gose and Tovar have hit 2.5% above the Florida Sate League OPS average of .686, Fields at 2% better, and Austin 0.5% worse than the California League .743 average, it wouldn’t be worth much without knowing their ages.

For both leagues, the average age is 22.9 years. Austin and Gose have the same August birthday, and are 19.8 years old, Fields is a half-year younger at 19.3 years, and Tovar another half-year younger at 18.8 years old. To be even around the league averages at ages 3-4 years younger than their competition would seem impressive even to those unfamiliar with baseball. However, I think we can even look at this a little more in depth. While we always quote “age relative to league,” I don’t think that properly gets at the heart of what we’re trying to say. I’m not impressed by Gose because he has similar numbers to 24-year-old teammate Korby Mintken, but instead because he’s keeping his head above water while facing pitchers like Andrew Brackman (age 24), Charlie Furbush (24) and Andrew Liebel (24). Where we’ve previously quoted “age relative to league,” I have begun to wonder if the more poignant phrase might be “Age Relative to Competition.”

As a broad introduction to this altered bit of semantics, I used the 2010 High-A teenagers as my guinea pigs. With just a little bit of legwork, I was quickly able to record the age of every starting pitcher that each hitter has started against this season. Though this analysis isn’t lock-tight without accounting for the number of PAs the players had against each pitcher, or without even considering the relief pitchers they faced, I do think it will give us a macro view at how we can better quantify “Age Relative to Competition” going forward. I have put together histograms for each player (based on the age of every SP they have started against), and present them below ranked by average age of opposing starting pitchers, from oldest to youngest.

Note: I used whole integers for the pitchers’ ages, rather than decimal points like I listed for the hitters above.

Anthony Gose – 22.7 years (2.9 year difference)

On April 27, Gose led off for Clearwater against Chris Capuano, the 31-year-old making a rehab start. Against the lefty, Gose went 0-for-3, striking out in his first plate appearance. While Capuano represents the oldest player that Gose has seen by far, he also went 1-for-4 (with 3 Ks) against Andrew Miller in his rehab start on May 11. It’s been a lot of pitchers 4-5 years older against him for the most part, and Gose has succeeded none the less, mostly thanks to a .343 BABIP (.422 in SSS vs. LHP’s) and the ability to turn 9 doubles into triples.

Jay Austin – 22.3 years (2.5 year difference)

The one teenager outside of Florida, the Astros were aggressive with Austin after his .680 OPS in the Sally League (average pitcher age: 21.6; league average OPS: .692) last season. After all, Lancaster is a much easier place to hit than Lexington in a vacuum — about 17% if we’re still to trust Dan Szymborski’s 2008 Minor League Park Multipliers.

In addition to the average age of pitchers he’s faced, we must also consider the quality of stuff. And just by eyeballing, I can say that Austin seems to have faced a touger group of pitchers: Wil Boscan, Mike Main, Nick Schmidt (3 times), Tyler Chatwood (twice) and Ethan Martin. And those are the “young opponents.”

Wilfredo Tovar – 22.2 years (3.4 year difference)

While I admittedly do not know a lot about Tovar, you have to be impressed what he’s been able to do through 18 games in St. Lucie. His one vicious stretch was four games from May 18-21, when he went 1-for-16 with 8 strikeouts. The starters on those days included one 21-year-old solid prospect (Chris Archer), and three accomplished college pitchers: Chris Rusin, Charlie Furbush and Luke Putknonen. In his other 14 games, the 18-year-old is hitting .358.

Daniel Fields – 21.9 years (2.6 year difference)

The Tigers pulled a fast one last August by signing Fields, a sixth-round draft pick, for $1.6 million to give up his scholarship to the hometown University of Michigan. They pulled another this spring by proactively moving Fields from shortstop to center field, and assigning him to Spring Training site Lakeland rather than close-to-home West Michigan. (Again, quoting the old Park Factors, Lakeland plays average, while West Michigan is very pitcher-friendly.) Fields has both a better walk rate (13.3 BB%) and ISO (.128) than league average (7.6% and .110), but until his strikeout rate comes down (30%), he’ll still look overmatched, even against the steady stream of 21-year-old pitchers he has faced.

There is more work to be done on this issue, and certainly more in-depth analysis available at our fingertips. But I do think that considering a player’s specific competition, rather than using blanket statements like “Player X is young for his league,” is a big step in the right direction.

This is the final part of a series about first-round catchers. I’m not the first to tackle the 2010 draft’s best catchers, as Jeff Sackmann at Hardball Times and the crew at Baseball America beat me to the punch this week.

So far this week, we have looked back at the history of every first-round catcher taken in the draft since 1988. As Erik warned us earlier in the week, expectations for any position are dubious at best, and catchers are no exception. Given their positional value — +12.5 in WAR’s adjustment — it is understandable why 2-4 scouting directors every draft roll the dice on a backstop. This June will be no exception, as we know the top of the draft will be occupied by a catcher, and I think it’s easy to forecast two more players going before the start of the second round. We’ll look at those three players today.

1. Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada

It was fairly standard for a catcher to be the first name called at the June Amateur Draft upon its conception, as four catchers in the first 11 years were the top pick. But the group struggled at the big leave level, as Steve Chilcott, Mike Ivie, and Danny Goodwin (drafted twice) combined for just 5.8 WAR. So, it took 26 years before a team gambled with a catcher while drafting first, passing over the Best Ever Pre-Strasburg College Pitcher to do so: Joe Mauer.

The Nationals will look to make it a second straight success story in a few weeks, as no bonus demand will stop them from drafting Harper. Four months ago, the assumption inside and outside baseball was that the hype for Harper was growing out of control. But considering the records he is breaking at a tough level, it’s clear the Sports Illustrated cover was justified. He is the most sure-fire bat in the draft since Mark Teixeira or Josh Hamilton, depending who you speak to.

While Mauer has displayed the athleticism to stick behind the plate even when his size suggests he shouldn’t, I’m not sure Harper does. I think he outgrows the position, and becomes something like the 2009 version of Jayson Werth. Right field would be a good option, I think, where his fantastic arm could have the same effect it might behind the plate. The priority has to be getting the bat to the Major League level, and keeping Harper healthy, and I think right field is the best option. But still, expect him to be announced as a catcher on June 7.

2. Yasmani Grandal, University of Miami

Three years ago, I wrote about Grandal as one of “My Guys on Draft Day“, as he had been my second favorite prospect (behind Padres prospect Drew Cumberland) at the 2006 East Coast Showcase. Here’s what I wrote of the high school version of Grandal:

Grandal is the best defensive catcher for his age in the draft, and as a switch-hitter, he has value despite only average offensive skills. His bat speed lags behind most top round prospects, but Grandal’s position and defensive prowess will be worth his bonus amount.

Ultimately, baseball’s brass disagreed with my assessment, as Grandal’s bonus demands were too high. The clubs opted to see how he would perform against Division I pitching, a call that he has certainly answered this season. My guess is that Grandal will end up a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, as he’s hitting a ridiculous .425/.547/.768 through 51 games, the majority of which have been spent behind the plate.

And still, Grandal is considered a bit of a tweener. Opinions on his defense have regressed a little bit since high school, though he now garners more praise for his receiving skills than his abilities throwing runners out. He’s always had good patience and solid pop, and this season, is finally putting to rest the opinions that he might have a slow bat. Ultimately, he’s not the prospect that Matt Wieters or Buster Posey were coming out of school, but I’ll take him before Jason Castro, Tony Sanchez or Jeff Clement, the other three college catchers taken in the top ten recently.

3. Micah Gibbs, Louisiana State University

Playing everyday this year, Gibbs has halved his strikeouts, upped his power, and for the first time, avoided a prolonged slump. And yet, I think his draft buzz was higher entering the season than it is today. A macro view at the star’s career indicates that he maybe shouldn’t be a first-round pick after all: I’m not sure there is one particular skill in his arsenal that is first round caliber.

He’s making better contact this season, but that has been a weakness in the past. His patience last year was fantastic, but this season, it’s fairly average. His power is good for a catcher, but seven home runs is still a career-high. And his defense, which drew a lot of praise this season, is drawing more skeptical opinions this year. Especially given the general struggles of the LSU pitching staff.

The rumors are that Gibbs will be a supplemental first round pick still, but I’m no longer so sure I agree. I would give the Tigers catcher a third-round grade, and surely the highest Bust Potential of this three-man group.

Next week: A different position: past, present and future.