Author Archive

Clayton Kershaw and the Rise of the Opt-Out Clause

Yesterday, the Dodgers signed Clayton Kershaw to a seven year, $215 million contract, or, if you prefer, a six year, $195 million extension, as they already owned his rights for 2014 at an arbitration price of around $20 million. That’s the amount that the Dodgers have guaranteed to pay Kershaw anyway, but I don’t know that it’s really all that accurate to describe it in that way, because there’s a pretty good chance the deal is actually going to end up as a five year, $150 million contract (or an extension of 4/$130M) when all is said and done. That’s because Clayton Kershaw is the latest to join the recent trend and get an opt-out clause negotiated into his deal; he can choose to void the final two years of the deal after the 2018 season if he so chooses and become a free agent again heading into his age-31 season.

Kershaw joins teammates Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu in having received opt-out clauses from the Dodgers, so this is clearly something LA is comfortable negotiating into their deals in an attempt to outbid other suitors. Texas also gave two opt-outs to Elvis Andrus in his long term extension signed last year, so Kershaw is the fourth player in the last year to receive a guaranteed paycheck but also the right to reset the terms if he stays healthy and performs at a high level over the next few years.

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The Absurd Price that Clayton Kershaw is Actually Worth

Over the last few years, a common thought experiment among nerdy baseball fans has been to imagine what Mike Trout would sign for if he was a free agent. He was the best player in baseball before he could legally drink, and if the market had to price a player of his ability and youth, $400 million wouldn’t be out of the question. You could even make a case for $500 million if the contract was long enough. But it was all just fun mental gymnastics, a hypothetical that didn’t exist in reality.

However, Mike Trout isn’t the only historically special player currently dominating the big leagues. Clayton Kershaw has also put up numbers that few his age have ever matched, and since he’s only a year from reaching free agent status, we’re about to find out just what the market will pay for a young superstar on a Hall of Fame track.

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FanGraphs Chat – 1/15/14

11:43
Dave Cameron: It’s a Wednesday, so we’re chatting. Go ahead and get your questions in now.

12:00
Comment From Oren
So, a team that really needs to contend this year team really looks like they’re going to go into 2014 with Ryan Goins as their second baseman. Thoughts?

12:00
Dave Cameron: I’ll believe it when I see it. The off-season isn’t over yet, and even if they go into spring training with Goins as the favorite, that still gives them a month of watching him hit to come to their senses.

12:01
Comment From _David_
I think the question on everyone’s mind is: What do you think of Jesus Sucre and how he compares to John Buck?

12:01
Dave Cameron: Sucre is a better defender, but can’t hit. Buck has some power, but that’s about it. They’re both scrubs.

12:02
Dave Cameron: One minute: dog just stole my shoe…

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What Was The Best Baseball Thing You Read In 2013?

For the second year, our friends at SABR are going to be giving away three Research Awards at their annual Analytics Conference in March, intended to honor the best baseball writing from the previous year. However, there is so much good baseball writing happening in all corners of the world now that it is impossible for anyone to read all of it. So, to make sure the nomination process is as thorough as possible, we would like to ask you for your help in rewarding those who published something particularly notable about the sport last year.

From SABR’s own website, here are the guidelines for nominations:

What are the best baseball analytics articles you’ve read in 2013?

We’re seeking nominations for the 2014 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards, which recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year in the following categories:

Contemporary Baseball Analysis: Honoring the best analysis focusing on a subject related to the modern game(s), team(s) or player(s).
Contemporary Baseball Commentary: Honoring the best commentary focusing on a subject related to the modern game(s), team(s) or player(s).
Historical Baseball Analysis/Commentary: Honoring the best original analysis or commentary focusing on a subject related to a game(s), team(s) or player(s) throughout baseball history.

Works of “Analysis” will be judged on the following criteria: thorough examination of the subject matter; originality of research; factual accuracy; significance in advancing our understanding of baseball.

Works of “Commentary” will be judged on the following criteria: distinguished writing; profound insight; factual accuracy; significance in advancing our understanding of baseball.

A work can be in any format except books, including but not limited to articles, columns, blog posts, television, film, websites, spreadsheets or databases, but it must have been first published in the preceding calendar year. No unpublished work will be considered. No work published, in part or in whole, prior to the preceding calendar year will be considered.

No work will be considered in more than one category. Multiple nominations can be submitted, but only one work per author will be considered as a finalist.

I’ve got a few pieces in mind that stand out to me, but we’d love to hear your suggestions as well. If you’d like to submit a piece to be considered for nomination, please include the category you believe the piece fits into, the author, the title of the article, the date it was published, and a link to the article. If it is not online, please provide a brief summary of the work and the best way to get access to the work.

Suggestions from any publication are welcome. We’re happy if you really liked something we published (and our own Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman won the Contemporary Analysis award last year), but if you think the best thing you read last year was published elsewhere, that’s totally okay too. The nomination deadline is tomorrow, so make sure you get your suggestions in today.


The A-Rod Suspension and the New Moral Hazard

Alex Rodriguez has been suspended for the entirety of the 2014 season. You already know this, and if you haven’t yet, go read Wendy Thurm’s breakdown of the arbiter’s ruling for more information on the judgment itself. I’m not all that interested in talking about Rodriguez that much more, personally, as this is a story that has been so thoroughly covered that there just isn’t that much more to say.

However, I think that the precedent of the season long suspension, and the near unanimous agreement that we’re going to see significantly increased suspension lengths for failed PED tests in the next CBA, creates an issue that Major League Baseball is going to have to contend with eventually. As we’ve seen in the A-Rod case, the relationship between the team and the player has essentially disintegrated, as the interests of the Yankees were clearly aligned with the interests of Major League Baseball; both wanted Rodriguez suspended for as long as possible.

By virtue of the suspension, the Yankees have just received a $25 million rebate, which could allow them to get under the $189 million luxury tax threshold and lead to significant long term savings from the resetting of the tax brackets. After years of benefiting from Rodriguez’s on-field performance while he was presumably using PEDs, the Yankees are now benefiting from the fact that Rodriguez is being punished for using PEDs. And that is essentially the definition of a moral hazard.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/13/14

11:58
Dan Szymborski: Oh GOD I DONT LIKE CHANGE DO NOT WANT

11:59
Dan Szymborski: OH GOD THERE IS TEXT AND BUTTONS AND POPUPS ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS IS A MAD HOUSE

11:59
Comment From GSon
Can we make this chat an Arod Free Zone?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Ha!

11:59
Comment From Ian
I commend you for not having smashed anything last week on the ESPN chat. That we saw.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: It was a combination of bourbon and realizing I don’t *have* to flip out at everything and only need to flip out at most things.

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Some Final Thoughts on the Hall of Fame Process

Now that we know who is going to be celebrated in upstate New York this summer, the Hall of Fame conversation has now shifted to voting reform. And a lot of people have a lot of thoughts on the matter.

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Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas Elected to Hall of Fame

Because of the release of ballots over the last few weeks, we’ve had a pretty good idea that Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank Thomas would get elected into the Hall of Fame on their first attempt. Today, that was made official, as all three cleared the 75% threshold and are now members of the Hall. All three are more than deserving, and raise the level of the Hall of Fame by their enshrinement.

Because today should be about celebrating greatness, here is my homage to Greg Maddux and Jeff’s tribute to Tom Glavine, with a similar piece on Frank Thomas on the way. These players are worth celebrating.

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The Greatness of Greg Maddux

Greg Maddux officially becomes a Hall of Famer today, and the only controversy surrounding his election is that it won’t be unanimous. He is, without question, one of the greatest pitchers of all time. So, let’s celebrate the things that made him great.

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FanGraphs Chat – 1/8/14

11:47
Dave Cameron: With the holidays behind us, I’m back to chat for the first time in a few weeks. Obviously, the Hall of Fame is taking center stage today, but non-HOF (non-fantasy) questions are fair game too.

11:47
Dave Cameron: Queue is open, so go ahead and get your questions in now.

12:08
Dave Cameron: Sorry for the late start, had to finish a piece on the greatness of Greg Maddux. Man, he was amazing.

12:09
Comment From Erich
Is there any precedent at all for a HOF voter to lose his voting privileges other than death or voluntarily giving them up?

12:10
Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. Bill Conlin, who was forcibly retired after being accused by multiple relatives of child molestation, is still a BBWAA member in good standing and has a HOF vote. They’ll almost certainly kick the person out of the organization who sold their vote to Deadspin, but Conlin will keep on voting as long as he wants.

12:11
Comment From Rob
Stat question here: Is BABIP affected by the ballpark you’re playing in? Is there somewhere we can look up the BABIP of a ballpark? Or perhaps it would be more accurate to look up the effect +/- a given ballpark has on a player’s BABIP? Though the latter would be hard to split apart from the quality of the home team’s defense. Still, it makes sense–if a ballpark is larger, you should be able to hit for a bigger BABIP in said ballpark, no?

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