FanGraphs Chat – 1/8/14

Dave Cameron: With the holidays behind us, I’m back to chat for the first time in a few weeks. Obviously, the Hall of Fame is taking center stage today, but non-HOF (non-fantasy) questions are fair game too.

Dave Cameron: Queue is open, so go ahead and get your questions in now.

Dave Cameron: Sorry for the late start, had to finish a piece on the greatness of Greg Maddux. Man, he was amazing.

Comment From Erich
Is there any precedent at all for a HOF voter to lose his voting privileges other than death or voluntarily giving them up?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. Bill Conlin, who was forcibly retired after being accused by multiple relatives of child molestation, is still a BBWAA member in good standing and has a HOF vote. They’ll almost certainly kick the person out of the organization who sold their vote to Deadspin, but Conlin will keep on voting as long as he wants.

Comment From Rob
Stat question here: Is BABIP affected by the ballpark you’re playing in? Is there somewhere we can look up the BABIP of a ballpark? Or perhaps it would be more accurate to look up the effect +/- a given ballpark has on a player’s BABIP? Though the latter would be hard to split apart from the quality of the home team’s defense. Still, it makes sense–if a ballpark is larger, you should be able to hit for a bigger BABIP in said ballpark, no?

Dave Cameron: Yes, ballpark absolutely has an effect on BABIP. Coors inflates average BABIP to around .325, by far the biggest impact of any park. Parks with big foul territories deflate BABIP, since more pop-ups get caught rather than land in the seats.

Comment From zack
Given the deals that have been signed this offseason, does the Hunter Pence deal look a lot better today then it did a few months ago?

Dave Cameron: No, still looks bad.

Dave Cameron: The Choo deal is just worse.

Comment From Thomas
How much would have to go right for the Padres to make the playoffs out of the NL West?

Dave Cameron: Josh Johnson has to go back to being JOSH JOHNSON, and then they need a big rebound season from Chase Headley.

Comment From Bret
The Jays 2B hole was listed by Jeff the other day as one of the biggest holes on any contender. Since it seems the Jays want to earmark their money to pitching, Nick Franklin jumps out as an obvious solution. What’s a fair package from the Jays?

Dave Cameron: There’s not an obvious fit. The Mariners need good outfielders, but the Blue Jays don’t have any to spare, really.

Comment From Robert
I asked Jeff something similar to this yesterday, but do you think the $/WAR would be vary much if you broke it down by position?

Dave Cameron: Matt Swartz wrote about this for us a few years back. Yes, 1B/RPs get paid a lot more than 2Bs.

Comment From JC
Does the HOF ever sever ties with the BBWAA and come up with a new panel of voters (perhaps including some writers) or is that bond too strong?

Dave Cameron: I think the HOF believes that the process is working wonderfully.

Comment From Eric H.
Why is Jeff Bagwell guilty in the eyes of BWAA for PED use when he has never appeared on any documents or reports?

Dave Cameron: Because he didn’t hit homers in the minors and he did in the majors. It’s guilt by association, basically.

Comment From Weaver & Glavine Fan Club
Are there any plans to account for pitchers who are clearly better than their WAR and FIP relate? If WAR is meant to be as close to a catch-all stat as possible, it seems like it needs to at least try to account for the “Weaver-Glavine Problem.”

Dave Cameron: If you think pitchers are best evaluated by runs allowed, use RA9-WAR, which we already have on the site.

Comment From Alex
Predict the landing spots for the following: Garza, E. Santana, Jimenez

Dave Cameron: Anaheim, Seattle, Toronto.

Comment From Alex
Which team is poised to take a big step backwards in 2014?

Dave Cameron: The Reds.

Comment From Coach K
Do you think MLB will ever see/stop ignoring the hypcrosity tat exists between the older Cuban players and soon Tanaka and American born drafted players? Players like Strasburg and Harper are making less than Guerrero will make for the Dodgers.

Dave Cameron: They don’t care about consistency as much as they care about keeping costs down.

Comment From Redd
Can you share your thoughts on the Gurnick vote? Is this a matter of “why waste time griping about one idiot when it’s the system that should be the target or our ire”?

Dave Cameron: I think that, if your stance is that the baseball hall of fame should ignore 20 years of baseball history, you probably shouldn’t be voting. I’m glad he’s surrendering his ballot next year.

Comment From Ira
Colby Rasmus for Homer Bailey?

Dave Cameron: Bailey’s better, so no.

Comment From Guest
What is your opinion one the floor and ceiling for a guy like Kole Calhoun? Household name by the end of the year?

Dave Cameron: Looks like a nice average player to me.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
think the Reds are lurking? They’ve been way too quiet this winter. Could they swoop in and sign Garza for example? Maybe back that up with a Bailey swap for a CFer? Rasmus? DeAza?

Dave Cameron: Trading Bailey for de Aza would be an atrocious move, and if they can’t afford Bronson Arroyo, they can’t afford Matt Garza.

Comment From Right Field Rob
Surprised Billy Beane hasn’t jumped ship to an opportunity that might allow him more $ to spend?

Dave Cameron: I think he likes the challenge.

Comment From _David_
Would Tanaka put the Mariners into a range of “just enough wild card hope that there’s a reason to watch?”

Dave Cameron: Sure. And all it would have cost them was $400 million…

Comment From Josef
Thanks for chatting, Dave. Maybe it was just a lack of other significant news yesterday, but I feel like the vitriol for Tom Gurnick was a little excessive, with most of it aimed too much at him specifically rather than the system that allows one to do such things (though I do agree that what Jurnick did was very silly and inconsistent with even his own line of thinking). What are your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I try to stay away from attacking individuals, and prefer to focus on the quality of the argument that they’re making. I wish more people would do the same.

Comment From Anon21
Why is Stanton off to a “good start” to Cooperstown while Heyward goes unmentioned? Your own site says Heyward has been the better player and they’re the same age; at some point don’t you have to have a little humility about your ability to forecast different future results?

Dave Cameron: Maybe it’s not the national guy who has no reason to be biased towards Stanton over Heyward that has the humility problem, but the irrational Braves fan who throws a fit every time FanGraphs doesn’t worship his favorite team?

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Predictions for Bonds’ and Clemens’ percentages? Both were around 35% last year.

Dave Cameron: Lower.

Comment From Mark
Do you think the current Stephen Drew situation proves that even successful “pillow contracts” are not all that effective in driving up the price next year? Drew had a nice “bounceback” year, but it seems like teams don’t project him as a significantly better player than they did 12 months ago…

Dave Cameron: I think they definitely do, but this time around, he has the disadvantage of having draft pick compensation attached. It’s the problem with having a good “pillow contract” season; there’s a tax applied that can sink your value.

Comment From Grack Zeinke
what do you ultimately see happening with Price? it doesn’t seem like the yield will be what was initially thought.

Dave Cameron: I think teams will make another run at him after Tanaka signs. No reason to give up the farm if you can just buy another farm for cash.

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Biggest name to get less than 5% and fall off?

Dave Cameron: Palmeiro.

Comment From Matt
Sub-.500 team in ’13 most likely to make the playoffs in ’14?

Dave Cameron: Angels.

Comment From Jay29
What time do we expect to hear official HOF results? Or will they just bleed in like political election restults?

Dave Cameron: Announcement is at 2 pm eastern.

Comment From Jaack
Make a case for Hall of Famer Armando Benitez.

Dave Cameron: The Hall of Fame is now for any player who had a pulse.

Dave Cameron: Welcome, Mr. Benitez, and everyone else ever.

Comment From GSon
Maddux is the second best pitcher available for enshrinement into the HOF on this year’s ballot.. Rocket is still the best pitcher of this, and perhaps, any generation of baseball.. comment?

Dave Cameron: Disagree.

Comment From Compton
Can you tell me how to calculate fWAR for pitchers? Or could you point me in the direction of the formula?

Dave Cameron: It’s in the glossary. Upper right hand corner on the home page.

Comment From LarryA
Will we ever see another pitcher like Smoltz? Dominant SP to dominant closer back to dominant SP?

Dave Cameron: I could see a guy like Lincecum potentially having that career path.

Comment From Robert
Looking at the all-time great hitters, there is a clear bias towards LHH. Seems weird that the two best hitters currently(Cabrera, Trout) are both RHH. Trying to think of similar RHH duos to be the best

Dave Cameron: Frank Thomas and Manny Ramirez?

Dave Cameron: Maybe not best in baseball, because Bonds, but best in AL?

Comment From _David_
Was it because of PEDs that you don’t care about the NFL, and if so does that conflict at all with your stance on the baseball issue? Also, will you watch the Superbowl if the Seahawks are in it?

Dave Cameron: I stopped watching the NFL (and most other sports) once baseball became my job, because I feel an obligation to be as good at my job as possible and also not spend my entire life ignoring friends and family. So all my extra sports time just got funneled into baseball. I’ll watch the Super Bowl regardless of who is in it, but more as a social event with friends than with any serious rooting interest.

Comment From short stop
Who will perform at a higher level in 2014: Boston infielder Xander Bogaerts or Seattle infielder Brad Miller? The WAR projections at ZIPS, Steamer and Oliver are close.

Dave Cameron: Bogaerts.

Comment From Froglegs Jackson
Which team has had the best off-season?

Dave Cameron: The Nationals.

Comment From zack
Who had the better career: Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson?

Dave Cameron: Maddux.

Comment From Darren
Why are Zips and Steamer so far off on the Reds. Zips has them at 41 WAR (per todays article) while Steamer (per the Depth Charts) is at 31. A 10 win difference and enough for Sullivan to suggest they are not a contender in 2014. What gives.

Dave Cameron: ZIPS likes the Reds pitchers a lot more.

Comment From _David_
Do the Mariners have the revenue to buy their way to some minimal level of having a chance at contention until they get the front office right?

Dave Cameron: That’s what they’re trying right now.

Comment From Santos
Have you really never said the F word in your entire life? Not even once?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I just have never really been a cusser. Didn’t grow up around it being used much, never really felt the need to do so.

Comment From Guest
Would you view the Hall as more of a baseball museum where all PED guys should get in or an elite club for those there is no question about?

Dave Cameron: It is a museum. I don’t think we should pretend its not.

Comment From zack
For next year only who would you rather have: Ubaldo, E. Santana, Garza, or AJ Burnett?

Dave Cameron: Burnett.

Comment From Robocles
Is there anything you’re really looking forward to seeing in 2014?

Dave Cameron: The ski slopes. I’m taking a week off in a couple of weeks to go skiing, and I couldn’t be more excited.

Comment From David Lopan
Sounds like Homer Bailey is heading for FA after this season. If he puts up similar numbers to last 2 years, do you think he reaches 100m contract?

Dave Cameron: Easy. Probably closer to $150M.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Can the Jays build a deal for Franklin around Gose? They probably need to add more but how close can Gose get them?

Dave Cameron: Considering Anthony Gose is terrible, I would say no.

Comment From Confused
How are park factors calculated? Are home team stats ignored? It seems like a team with a good offense could have an artificially-inflated park factor – but then, you could say the same about the visitor stats if the park’s home team has a bad pitching staff.

Dave Cameron: The team’s own players don’t really have a significant effect, because they are measured as the difference between the team’s performance at home and on the road. So if you have lousy pitchers everywhere, it’s not going to show up as a park effect.

Comment From FS
What O’s need to do to contend?

Dave Cameron: Get an LF, 2B, and DH.

Comment From Eastern NC
Really, how good was Tim Raines?

Dave Cameron: Fantastic.

Comment From Alex
Are the Tigers fading? I see Cleveland and Kansas City as serious competition, with Minnesota and Chicago not too far behind

Dave Cameron: Detroit is still clearly better than both.

Dave Cameron: And the Twins suck.

Comment From GSon
$ 400 MM just money.. and not yours

Dave Cameron: This kind of thought process is so silly. It has nothing to do whether its mine or theirs or whoevers. Unused currency can be used to buy other things, so just look at a a trade for whatever else they could have bought for $400 million. You don’t say “it’s not my players” when someone makes a bad trade.

Comment From Lat
How much would Mauer get if he were a Free Agebt?

Dave Cameron: 6/120ish.

Comment From Guest
In the end doesn’t the HoF voting system reflect the majority and get it right in that sense? Radicals won’t let there be a unamious selection but who cares, that’s not the point..

Dave Cameron: Why do we think that veteran baseball writers are representative of the population of fans?

Comment From Guest
Will Randy Johnson be a 1st ballot guy?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From InquiringMind
If you’re the Braves GM how soon do you start shopping JUpton and Heyward?

Dave Cameron: Next winter.

Comment From Guest
Is it fair to say Matt Holliday deserved to be included in your future HoF post but was forgotten on accident?

Dave Cameron: He wasn’t forgotten. He just missed the cut.

Comment From Rated Rookie
Is Anon21 a notorious Braves homer? That exchange felt like I walked into a room with two people at each other’s throats.

Dave Cameron: He has spent the last few years being remarkably antagonistic about any perceived slight towards the Braves.

Comment From Sean
Where would you rank Pedro Martinez’ peak? Top 5?

Dave Cameron: Peak? Top 3, easy, maybe top 1.

Comment From Dave Dombrowski
How do I have a job after GIVING AWAY Doug Fister to the Nationals?

Dave Cameron: One bad trade doesn’t get you fired.

Comment From NatsFan
Imagine every player in the MLB/MiLB is a free agent. Besides Mike Trout, who gets the next largest/longest contract and what would it be?

Dave Cameron: Bryce Harper.

Dave Cameron: And in a hypothetical world where everyone is a free agent, prices come way down for the top guys, so less than you think.

Comment From Eastern NC
Isnt’ skiing terrifying?

Dave Cameron: Not really. I don’t tuck and go 90 mph straight down the mountain, though.

Comment From Guest
Aren’t the Orioles a better trade partner for Nick Franklin?

Dave Cameron: They don’t have any extra good outfielders either.

Comment From Guest
How would you rate Piazza’s chances next year?

Dave Cameron: Slim.

Comment From JC
Did you just say $150 million for Homer Bailey?

Dave Cameron: Homer Bailey is quietly very good.

Dave Cameron: I’d probably take him over Tanaka.

Comment From Rob
Why are advanced stats in baseball so much further ahead than in other sports?

Dave Cameron: It is easier to isolate player performance in baseball than in other sports, where there is far more player interaction.

Comment From ryan
Over / Under – 1.5 Voters that did not vote for Maddux?

Dave Cameron: Way over.

Comment From Kevin
If you were to rank all of the offseasons so far, where would the White Sox rank?

Dave Cameron: Near the top. I really like what they did.

Comment From FS
Freeman’s line with RISP: .443/.591/.695. incredible luck? or different approach with RISP?

Dave Cameron: Luck.

Comment From Guest
Calling the Nationals/Tigers transaction involving Doug Fister a “trade” is being really generous to the Tigers. They got zip.

Dave Cameron: Well, that’s not really true. A lefty who got into the mid-90s and pitched well at Double-A isn’t zip.

Dave Cameron: But they certainly didn’t get enough.

Comment From Bkgeneral
Aren’t Dodgers and Mariners best fit for a Franklin swap?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers just spent $30 million on a second baseman.

Comment From Bkgeneral
2012>2013>2014 a fair representation of the Reds trajectory?

Dave Cameron: Unless they actually start doing something this winter, yes.

Comment From A. Lane
Do you assume that most, major league hitters batted ball profiles are optimized based on underlying skills; pitch recognition, contact, ect?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would guess that hitters are good at maximizing their own skills.

Comment From Froglegs Jackson
Was Chris Sale considered for your HoF column? His career numbers are very similar to Strasburgs, and at this point, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say he’s the better pitcher.

Dave Cameron: Considered, but missed the cut.

Comment From Andrew
Do you think the Phillies will make a run at Tanaka? I think they have taken a reasonable path this offseason at trying to avoid an Astros like spiral while avoiding long term commitments/draft pick losses, but Tanaka just seems like someone every team with money should be in on.

Dave Cameron: Everyone with money is in on him, which is why the price is probably going to be ridiculous.

Comment From Ed
Do you ski in the NC/VA/WV mountains or do you travel to a more exotic location?

Dave Cameron: We’re going to Snowshoe in WV. It’s the best place in the southeast, and a reasonable drive from where we live. I’d love to go ski out west again, but when you add flights and rental cars to lodging/lift tickets/food, it gets expensive fast.

Comment From Robert
Are you surprised how easily Glavine appears to be going in? I think he’s definitely deserving…but I think it’s very easy to make a case that he’s somewhere on the fringes of the top 10 on the ballot, so I’d expect him to be left off more often.

Dave Cameron: 300 wins. That’s enough for most voters to not care about much else.

Dave Cameron: Okay, have to go eat lunch and prepare for HOF silly hour.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out, everyone.