2014 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
It’s probably not incorrect to say that two main ways in which baseball players can provide value, broadly speaking, is by means of wins and also by means of the spectacle they’re capable of creating. Very fast Billy Hamilton has seemed — to the present author, at least — has seemed a candidate to succeed more by the latter standard than the former. ZiPS appears to suggest, however — in 2014, at least — that Hamilton is capable of producing on both accounts.

Of note, in particular, with regard to Hamilton’s projection is the BABIP (.332) part of it. On Cincinnati, for example, only Joey Votto has a higher projected one of them (.334) — and Joey Votto has produced five consecutive seasons now of BABIPs of .349 or greater. Everything else being equal, every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 0.3 wins. Using that rough estimate, here’s a table of what Hamilton’s WAR might be given an array of possible different BABIP outcomes:

The relatively optimistic WAR projection, one observes, is tied pretty closely to the relatively optimistic BABIP projection.

Pitchers
This is the 16th club considered in the ongoing release of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and very few of those clubs — two, maybe three — have featured an entire rotation of average to above-average starters. Cincinnati is one of them, now, though. Theoretically the weakest of the group, Mike Leake is still projected to record 180 innings of league-average run prevention. Young left-hander Tony Cingrani, meanwhile, who threw 100 innings last season, is projected to prevent runs even harder than that.

In the bullpen, one finds a very concise cautionary tale on paying for relief help. Jonathan Broxton, signed for three years and $21 million before the 2013 season, is projected by ZiPS to be outperformed — both overall and on a rate basis — by Manny Parra, who was signed that same offseason for just $1 million. Nor is ZiPS even explicitly aware of Broxton’s season-ending elbow injury — just that he didn’t pitch a full complement of innings.

Bench/Prospects
Absent from the depth-chart image below, but certainly a candidate to receive more than 200 plate appearances for a fifth consecutive season is Chris Heisey. According to ZiPS, there’s a non-negligible chance that he’s just a better option overall than Ryan Ludwick in left field (as he was in 2013, for example). No other particularly major-league-ready outfield options exist within the organization, really. Among pitching prospects, young right-hander Robert Stephenson receives the most impressive projection — but not so’s to suggest that he’s ready for the majors, yet.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.