From Advanced NFL Stats, this was the Patriots-Saints Win Expectancy graph from this afternoon.

And from us, this is the Red Sox-Tigers game from tonight.

Source: FanGraphs

Both teams bottomed out with a win expectancy of around 4%. The odds of two teams with a 4% chance of winning both winning is 0.16%. Not 16%, but 0.16%, or to put it in words, it would happen once about every 625 opportunities.

You can bet that October 13th, 2013 will go down as one of the most memorable days in Boston sports history.

Tonight, the Cardinals and Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS. The Dodgers are throwing Zack Greinke, who you probably know as one of the best pitchers alive. The Cardinals are throwing Joe Kelly, who, if you don’t watch the Cardinals regularly, you may have never heard of. But, being the Cardinals, it is no huge surprise that they have found some moderate prospect in the third round and turned him into an ace. This is what they do. So, Joe Kelly and his 3.08 career ERA is taking the mound for the Cardinals tonight as yet another example of the Cardinals ridiculous player development success.

Except Joe Kelly is a little different than the rest of the terrific young arms the Cardinals keep pulling out of thin air. A table of the most often used 27-and-under pitchers that St. Louis has thrown over the last two years, to illustrate the difference:

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Midnight struck for baseball’s Cinderella last night, as Adam Wainwright’s curveball played the part of the wicked stepmother. Actually, I don’t know the Cinderella story well enough to know if that sentence makes sense, so let’s move on from this tortured analogy after just one sentence. The Pirates lost last night, and the season that put the city back on the map as a baseball town is now over. So now, there’s one question hanging over the franchise: was this was a one year aberration or was this was the emergence a new force to be reckoned with in the NL Central?

From one perspective, it’s impossible to answer this question right now. We have no idea what the 2014 Pirates will actually look like after an off-season of roster shuffling. They could pony up their entire farm system to land both David Price and Giancarlo Stanton, and then, yeah, they’re obviously a contender next year. Or they might decide to play it safe, wait for the next wave of prospects to hit Pittsburgh, and take a step backwards in a consolidation year. There’s no way to know what the 2014 Pirates are going to do without knowing who is going to be playing for them.

But, we know some of the players that are almost certainly going to be on the team, and we know some things about how the 2013 Pirates won 94 games, so we can look at how much of what they did this year could reasonably be expected to carry over to 2014. So let’s do that.

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I’m just going to leave this here, sans commentary. Except I’ll note that the Diamondbacks hit opposing batters 60 times this year, and were hit by their opponents 43 times. Okay, proceed.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Kevin Towers has not shied away from venting frustration about his team’s lack of fight.
Towers has pointed to many instances where his pitchers did not hit a member of the other team after a perceived slight or beaning of a D-back.

Toward the end of the season, the L.A. Dodgers clubbed six home runs in an 8-1 drubbing of the D-backs, which was a game that saw the eventual NL West champs look a little too comfortable in the dugout.

“I was sitting behind home plate that game and when it showed up on the Diamondvision of stuffing bananas down their throats, I felt like we were a punching bag,” Towers told Arizona Sports 620’s Burns and Gambo Tuesday. “Literally, if I would have had a carton of baseballs I would have fired them into the dugout from where I was sitting behind home plate.

“That’s not who we are as Diamondbacks, that’s not how — I mean, it’s a reflection on Gibby, on myself, on our entire organization. They slapped us around and we took it.”

Towers said that has to stop, and following the game he had “a few choice words for the (coaching) staff.”

Nothing changed.

“You’d think the GM comes down and makes it a point to talk to the staff about it that at we need to start protecting our own and doing things differently,” he said. “Probably a week later Goldy gets dinged, and no retaliation. It’s like ‘wait a minute.’

“Not that I don’t take any of our guys from a lesser standpoint, but if Goldy’s getting hit, it’s an eye for an eye, somebody’s going down or somebody’s going to get jackknifed.”

Read the whole thing. You can bet the commissioner’s office is going to.

A week ago, Clint Hurdle chose A.J. Burnett over Gerrit Cole to start Game 1 of the NLDS. This was a perfectly reasonable choice, as Burnett has been excellent for the Pirates this year, and is a 37 year old veteran, while Cole is a 23 year old rookie who had just over 100 innings in his big league career. Cole has been very good since the Pirates called him up, but by pretty much any measure, Burnett had been as good or better, and he’s got a longer track record of pitching at this level.

Burnett, of course, imploded. He allowed as many hits (6) as he got outs, and he walked four batters as well, including the opposing pitcher. Seven runs scored and the Cardinals rolled to an easy victory. The next day, Cole shut down the very same line-up, allowing just two hits and one run over six innings, allowing the Pirates to tie the series. And now, with both Burnett and Cole on full rest for Game 5, Hurdle is going with the kid.

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I’m going to let you in on a little bit of a secret; writing about baseball for a living, in October, can be kind of difficult. Not because topics are hard to find — the playoffs hand us ideas on a silver platter — or because the samples are too small for us to be able to really forecast anything with certainty, but because the rise of the internet has empowered multiple websites to employ very talented writers, and we’re all watching the same thing at the same time.

In the regular season, there’s always a large diversity of events happening, so we can find our own little niche and write about something that hasn’t been widely covered. In the postseason, though, there’s usually only a couple of games going on on any given day, and those games often have specific moments that work really well for in depth analysis. And because there are so many good baseball writers watching those same moments, it can become a bit of a race to see who can produce a quality take that basically erases the need to read any other take on that event.

Last night’s event was Max Scherzer loading the bases with no one out, and then getting out of it, protecting a one run lead in the process. It’s the kind of moment that basically demands to be written about. Except, you know, Grant Brisbee at Baseball Nation basically cornered the market on analyzing that inning:

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Note: I don’t actually know if Michael Wacha thinks that. The headline is hyperbolic in nature, designed to convey the ideas from the article in a way that make you want to read said article. Michael Wacha might think pitching inside is really smart. I haven’t asked him. I doubt it, though.

Yesterday, with his team facing elimination, Michael Wacha shut down the Pirates. Not just in a good October performance kind of way, but in a you-can’t-hit-this-so-stop-trying kind of way. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, and left having only allowed Pedro Alvarez to deposit one into the seats. For the day, he allowed a BABIP of .000, and it didn’t look like great defense being played behind him. It was just Michael Wacha dominating a pretty solid offense.

But perhaps the most amazing part is he did it with half the strike zone. The outer half, specifically. Michael Wacha decided that he simply didn’t have any interest in throwing to the inner half of the plate, and if the Pirates were going to hit him, they were going to have to do it by getting extension and driving a ball the other way.

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Despite being up 2-1 in the NLDS, today is a pretty important game for the Pirates. A loss not only means that the series goes to a deciding game 5, but that game 5 would be in St. Louis, and the Cardinals would put Adam Wainwright back on the hill for that deciding game. Beating Wainwright at home is no easy task, and they can’t feel very good about that match-up given how poorly the first game of this series went for the Pirates.

So, it’s not an elimination game for Pittsburgh, but this is the one they want to win. Beating Michael Wacha in Pittsburgh is a much easier task than beating Wainwright in St. Louis. To win this game, though, they’re going to need a strong performance from Charlie Morton, or at least, several innings that keep the score close before the battle of the bullpens takes over. If you look at Morton’s season line — 116 innings, 3.26 ERA/3.60 FIP/3.69 xFIP — that doesn’t seem like it should be too much to ask. But Morton, as a pitcher, has one very big flaw that might be a problem against St. Louis today.

Morton throws fastballs about 70% of the time, and most of his fastballs are of the two-seam variety. It’s why he posted a 62% GB% this year, and it’s why he absolutely destroys right-handed batters. He throws a heavy, pounding sinker that just eats RHBs for breakfast, but the same strengths that allow him do dominate righties create serious problems against left-handers.

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Tonight, the Atlanta Braves will play the Dodgers with their season on the line. Down 2-1 in the NLDS, the Braves have to win tonight just to force a Game 5 — which would match them up against Clayton Kershaw again, so, yeah, this isn’t a great situation — and are turning to Freddy Garcia in this win-or-go-home game. Yes, the Freddy Garcia who turned 37 yesterday, and has had a season that could charitably be described as adventurous.

He went to spring training with the Padres on a minor league deal, but was cut loose after getting bombed on a regular basis in the Cactus League. The Orioles signed him to a minor league contract a few days later and gave him a month in Triple-A before calling him up at the beginning of May. He responded by throwing 50 disastrous innings, including a 5.77 ERA and 6.73 FIP, which got him sent back to Triple-A at the beginning of July. He hung out in the minors for a few months until the Braves picked him up at the end of August and brought him back to the big leagues when rosters expanded in September.

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