An A.J. Burnett Poll
A week ago, Clint Hurdle chose A.J. Burnett over Gerrit Cole to start Game 1 of the NLDS. This was a perfectly reasonable choice, as Burnett has been excellent for the Pirates this year, and is a 37 year old veteran, while Cole is a 23 year old rookie who had just over 100 innings in his big league career. Cole has been very good since the Pirates called him up, but by pretty much any measure, Burnett had been as good or better, and he’s got a longer track record of pitching at this level.
Burnett, of course, imploded. He allowed as many hits (6) as he got outs, and he walked four batters as well, including the opposing pitcher. Seven runs scored and the Cardinals rolled to an easy victory. The next day, Cole shut down the very same line-up, allowing just two hits and one run over six innings, allowing the Pirates to tie the series. And now, with both Burnett and Cole on full rest for Game 5, Hurdle is going with the kid.
It’s an understandable decision. It is very hard to ignore recent performance, especially when those performances are as divergent as these two were against the same opponent. And, in Burnett’s case, there’s a history of poor performances in the playoffs. For his career, he’s now thrown 41 innings in the playoffs and has a 6.37 ERA/5.33 FIP/5.32 xFIP. He has issued almost as many walks as strikeouts, and that doesn’t even include the seven guys he’s beaned in those eight starts. Burnett, in October, has had no command and hasn’t been able to get anyone out.
But, at the same time, it’s 41 innings, and 27 of those came back in 2009, when Burnett posted a 96 xFIP- during the regular season. This year, he posted a 77 xFIP-. Burnett appears to be a better pitcher now than he was then. And it’s not like his poor start against the Cardinals was part of a second half fade. In the final three months of the season, he allowed wOBAs of .297, .291, and .286. His 2.61 xFIP in September was the best he posted in any month of the season. His 2.70 xFIP in the second half of the year was the third best in baseball, behind only Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw.
Burnett, basically, was excellent all year, but more excellent towards the end of the season. Then, he had one terrible start, and now he’s going to sit on the bench and watch Gerrit Cole pitch with the Pirates season on the line. Cole isn’t a bad choice, certainly — he ranks 6th in the majors in second half xFIP, you may notice — and perhaps this is more about going with the dominating stuff of a young power arm than being scared of giving A.J. Burnett the ball again.
But I don’t see a lot of confidence in Burnett from Pirates fans right now. It seems like his poor start in Game 1, and his history of poor playoff performances, have sapped any confidence in his ability to pitch well going forward. Everyone seems to be on board with Gerrit Cole starting this game, even though the numbers suggest that Burnett is probably the better pitcher.
So, I’m putting this to a poll. How much do you believe that A.J. Burnett’s poor playoff history matters? How much of an influence would you let 41 terrible innings in October dictate your choice of starters today, if you were Clint Hurdle?
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Option 5: I think Burnett is the better pitcher, but the Cardinals have spanked him in Busch Stadium multiple times. Gerrit Cole will be the Pirates best pitcher for the next 7 years and probably gives them a better chance to win this particular game.
this
this is my vote too… the Cardinals have torched Burnett this season
34 1/3rd, 27 hits, 3.67 ERA, 0 homers, 9.7/2.36 k/bb/9, 1.05 WHIP. Prior to game 1.
Me three.
Yes, this. Not worried at all about A.J.’s past playoff performances, but the Cards seem to have his number this year.
This based on 85 career PAs at Busch stadium, and Burnett has a .598 OPS against the Cardinals this year with 37/9 K/BB, with 138 PAs. Neither of these samples provides much information so why attempt to reason from them?
*This is
Burnett’s last 3 starts at Busch stadium:
10/3 (playoffs): 2 IP, 7 ER, 0/4 K/BB
9/6: 3 IP, 5 ER, 4/1 K/BB
8/15: 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4/1 K/BB
Total: 9.1 IP, 17 ER, 8/6 K/BB
Predictive? Probably not. Reason for Hurdle’s decision? Probably.
me four
Why did Aj struggle as a Yankee? I can tell you it wasnt velocity. He’s been remarkably consistent.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=512&position=P&pitch=FA
AJ just seems like an outlier case who’s more prone to get rattled or stressed. I’d happily go with a top shelf talent on full rest and Leave AJ for a possible game 1. It seems so much riskier asking him to pitch in a winner take all if it’s not necessary.
I wonder how Burnett showed up in Matt Hunter’s pitcher inconsistency research:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-value-in-pitcher-inconsistency/
Instead of “rattled or stressed” – what about randomness and inconsistency? Maybe the what you call a lack of “mental toughness” is actually inconsistency. (which amounts to the same thing without trying to assign a cause/saying somebody is “weak,” since we can’t actually know the cause)
That was pretty historically putrid. It’s been a long time since he had an outing that bad. One against the Twins in 2011 was about as bad, but not quite. 4 BBs and an HBP with no Ks in 2 innings, something like that just wasn’t really on his resume.
AJ’s performance as a Yankee might have been related to stress or rattling. But it seems far more likely that it was due to the huge differences in Park Factors and Defense. AJ went from a team that was terrible at converting batted balls into outs and a ballpark that is offense-friendly to a team that was very efficient defensively and a ballpark that suppresses offense. Defense and Park Factors are still overlooked when evaluating pitchers.
I think this decision came straight from the smart guys calling the shots above Clint Hurdle’s purple head. The main difference is AJ Burnett now completely relies upon a sinker/curve combo which is remarkably effective against RHB but not so much against LHB. AJ’s wOBA against RH in 2013 was a very impressive .244 but against LH .329. big spike there.
Cole meanwhile was actually BETTER against LH batters with a .275 wOBA and a respectable .294 against RH.
The STL have a formidable lineup full of excellent LH batters and at the end of the day Cole’s stuff matches up wayyyyyyy better than AJ.
also – Cole has been phenomenal and has steadily improved as the season has gone along. as good as AJ has been at the end of the season, Cole was the best pitcher in MLB in Sept. and it has continued into the postseason
Cole’s xFIP in september was 2.36 boom goes the dynamite
I like the idea here, besides relying on September sample sizes. Or even the tiny sample of Cole that we have. But if there was a definitive way to see that Cole stacks up better vs a specific lineup (i.e., this cards lineup) – by all means, go with him. Both pitchers seem to be similar levels of good.
cameron cited AJ’s september xfip which is good but cole’s is better
This is pretty much what I’m thinking. I don’t think Burnett would necessarily have a bad start, but I think Cole matches up better with the Cardinals. I also think Burnett matches up better with the Dodgers, and this gives us a chance to use him to start the first game of that series if we move on.
Facing good lefties, AJ really needs his curve working. Cole just needs his fastball against everybody, as he’s shown this year. I think Cole’s fastball is a surer bet than AJ’s curve.
I think Cole is the better pitcher but Burnett should start.
care to elaborate?
My guess is he’s a Cards fan
Maybe he’s a Cardinals fan.
I think Phil’s comment was meant for humor value b/c Dave did not offer this choice.
Not a Pirates fan but work with a bunch of them and this isn’t a debate for those guys.
Burnett was awful, Cole was great. Season on the line? Not a tough choice.
You work with a group of guys collectively known as the recency effect!
That’s always the easy response. But just because we haven’t come up with a satisfactory system for deciding which short-term data is relevant and which isn’t, doesn’t mean that NONE of it is.
Just because we can’t identify a meaningful underlying narrative doesn’t mean one isn’t present. Case in point- Wainwright got shelled by the Reds a couple months back. Really shelled. It would have been easy to smugly predict that the start had zero bearing on his next start against the Reds. But it turned out that wasn’t the case. Wainwright was tipping his pitches, and the Reds cleaned his clock again before the coaching staff recognized the problem and Wainwright corrected it.
What would you have said if I had said, “this Reds start makes me nervous, something didn’t look right last time out.” ?
You would have laughed at me. But I wouldn’t have been wrong just because I couldn’t identify the precise problem. Data occasionally reveals that our “eye test” or “hunches” were wrong. But much of the time data serves to explain something that we intuitively recognized but can’t put our finger on.
Fan in 1913: “Hmmm, I know Player X has a low batting average, but it seems like he’s always making stuff happen on the base paths.”
Fan in 2013: “Player X was a great player, look at his terrific OBP.”
Too often “stat guys” want to lol at any analysis that doesn’t involve large samples of data. I think we all need to develop just a BIT of a healthy respect for the ability of the subconscious mind to notice things that our conscious minds can’t explain yet. And most people who have watched baseball for years and decades believed that Cole was more likely to succeed last night than Burnett. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss them simply because they can’t articulate that opinion to a statitician’s satisfaction.
Good topic. Yes, recent history matters. The more recent, the more it matters. Cole is the right choice for tonight.
Remember, though: “Beaned” doesn’t mean “hit by pitch.” “Beaned” means “hit in the head.” A.J. Burnett hasn’t beaned seven guys in eight playoff starts.
To be fair, Burnett has a long history of underperforming his peripherals. With 2353.2 career IP, his ERA is 3.99 and his xFIP is 3.66. Who knows why that is, but it’s an awfully large sample size over a long period of time in 4 different home parks and in front of 4 different defenses. The trend has continued during his 2 years in Pittsburgh, as well. So, I’m willing to trust his 2013 ERA more than his xFIP in evaluating his value.
I said I wasn’t sure who was better, but Cole should start. We can’t be sure how good Cole is until he accumulates a larger sample size. Right now, however, we have 117.1 IP that say he’s outstanding. I’ll go with that.
At this point in their careers I think Burnett is the better pitcher, but I would still go with Cole because I think he has the better chance to come up with an absolute shut-down start. With that, I think he also has a better chance to have a disaster, but in one game I think it’s worth the risk. I’d start Cole, but if he doesn’t have his best stuff working, I’d think about getting Burnett in there.
I don’t think there’s any evidence to indicate that Cole has a better chance of throwing up an absolute dud tonight. He gave up more than 3 earned runs in a start exactly once in the bigs this season, and that was a 5-inning, 4-run stint. Cole has been fairly hittable given his stuff at times, especially earlier on in the season, but nothing we’ve seen so far indicates that he’d be more likely to have a “disaster” than Burnett.
What’s your goal? If your goal is to move on I would start Cole. If your goal is to win World Series (or even make World Series) I think I would start Burnett. Skipping Burnett is just feeding the fire that he can’t win big games, and I would fear that you’re basically burning every start he has remaining in the playoffs.
It can’t be a matter of either/or. They have to move on if they’re going to win the WS.
Yeah I’m not sure anyone is thinking “hey let’s move on and then lose the next series!” Of course everyone is playing to win it all at this point.
I went with Cole and it probably does have something to do with games 1 and 2, and even Burnett’s history in the post-season (although he picthed very well in game 2 of the 2009 series).
It’s amazing how well Burnett pitched in the second half and it went almost unnoticed. As you point out, 3rd best xFIP, 58% gb%, 9.79/2.57 K/BB/. He was very consistent, too. In his last 16 starts he had no game with a FIP above 4 and only 3 above 3, and only 1 xFIP above 4 in that span. I know single game fielding independent metrics don’t mean much but he was just very good and steady all second half, even the low walk rate.
And for those who think he got lit up in St. Louis, that’s not really true. Sure, he gave up runs and hits, but the k/bb rate and gb rate were the same. he gave up no homers against the Cards all year until Beltran’s in the playoffs.
Against St. Louis before that playoff game, 34 1/3rd, 27 hits, 3.67 ERA, 0 homers, 9.7/2.36 k/bb/9, 1.05 WHIP. I don’t think you could have seen the playoff meltdown coming, although he’s melted down in the past. The walk to the pitcher, the HBP (and he’s done that in the past too). He seemed to unravel, but that mostly was because he didn’t have his curve at all.
Unlikely it’s pressure. He pitched lights out in important games down the stretch. Just a day he didn’t have it.
Interesting to think about. Cole has been good enough, has great stuff, and the results were so strongly contrasting recently enough, i can understand going with Cole.
And if they win Burnett will still have a big part to play in the next series and has a chance to right himself.
AJ got overly amped up in G1 and claims he was too jacked to even get consistent and repeatable delivery. Cole was cool in arguably the tougher G2 challenge. That and Cole vs. LH may be the biggest difference for me. I doubt AJ would have similar trouble going a 2nd time but Cole proved his bonafides with his performance and demeanor.
Maybe Wainright will return to 2012 NLDS G5 form . . . I know – wishful thinking
I’d go with Cole tonight, simply because I think the Bucs may need to win a 2-1 game, and I believe Cole has a better shot of completely shutting them down. Either way, though, I hope Hurdle has a quick leash if he sees Cole doesn’t have his best stuff.
That should be short leash or quick hook. Clearly the anticipation has fried my brain.
As a Pirates fan, for me it comes down to variance. Throughout the season Burnett was the best pitcher on the staff with Liriano and Cole close behind, but if you look at the game logs for those pitchers you see more variance in Burnett and Liriano.
Burnett gave up 4 or more runs in 9 out of his 31 starts if you include his game one start accounting for roughly 29 % of his starts.
On the other hand Cole gave up 4 or more runs twice in his 19 starts or roughly 10.5 % of his starts. Also, the most runs Cole gave up in a start this season was 4.
Obviously, luck does play into these numbers somewhat but Cole and Burnett have been neck and neck since the beginning of September I would give the edge to Cole because of the consistency he has showed this season.
This is exactly what I think. It’s not that Burnett can’t have a huge game here. Both pitcher’s are capable of dominating and AJ’s best game scores are actually higher than Cole’s. It’s that AJ has had more bad starts than Cole. AJ has had 5 game scores under 40. Cole has had zero. Given the history (and it admittedly is not extensive), Cole seems much less likely to pitch the Pirates out of the game early.
Is Jason Schmidt available?
No, but I’m pretty sure Daniel Moskos is.
I voted for Cole being the better pitcher because I feel Cole is the better pitcher against this lineup
Cole has been better vs. lefties this year and, while he will probably not end up as good throughout his career, the Cardinals have some dangerous hitters from the left side. In addition, Cole is more consistant: Even if Burnett is more likely to pitch a shutout, he’s also more likely to pitch a dud. Right now, the Pirates can’t afford a blow up that will put massive runs up, but are more likely to be able to afford a possible extra run.
Plus, Cole has similiar stats this year to Burnett anyway: His ERA is actually lower than Burnett’s (And Burnett has a history of underperforming his peripherals, so his ERA might be closer to “true” talent), his FIP is basically A.J. Burnett and the xFIP is not that much higher. Combined with L/R, Cole could very well simply be the better pitcher this matchup.
As a yankee fan, and as someone rooting for the Buccos, I am irreversibly biased against AJ.
Start the kid, AJ will break your heart
No Pirates fans I spoke with voted for AJ over Cole. I think this is the right move. If the Pirates win it does allow AJ to start Game 1 against LA. I also think it is possible that Clint Hurdle knows that the future is Cole, not AJ, and maybe the future starts today? There was a lot of pressure starting Game 2 because if you lose that one you are in the soup. Game 5 isn’t Game 2, but there are some similarities in terms of pressure to win.
Everyone also knows that if Cole tanks for any reason, everyone and their brother will be saying that Hurdle should have started AJ.
Good article and responses, I wouldn’t have started AJ myself because of the history the Cards have had and the statistics speak for themselves.
The Pirates’ loss is squarely on Clint and AJ’s shoulders…although to be fair, he really didn’t have better options other than Liriano, Morton and Cole-all whom pitched far better than AJ did.
A pie in the face for A.J. during the playoffs. I was at game 2 of ALDS in 2009 at Yankee stadium which was the quietest game I’ve ever attended until A-Rod tied things up with a homer. A.J. struggled mightily in October for the Yanks.
AJ also pitched a gem in the most important game of that postseason. Game 2 of the WS, down 1-0. Lose that game and head to Philly down 2-0. AJ throws a gem. He crapped the bed in game 5, but he was also pitching on short rest.