Contract Crowdsourcing 2013-14: Kendrys Morales
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Kendrys Morales.
Some relevant information regarding Morales:
- Has averaged 590 PA and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons*.
- Has averaged 1.5 WAR per 600 PA over last three seasons*.
- Recorded a 1.2 WAR in 657 PA in 2013.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Made $5.25M in 2013, avoiding arbitration with Seattle.
*Or, just two seasons in the case of Morales, who missed all of 2011.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Morales this offseason.
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2 years, 24 million. He can’t play a position, doesn’t walk and can’t run. Anything more than 2 years is probably a mistake.
Well, I assume that he’s going to get 1 year at $14 million since Jack Z seems to think it’s a good idea to make him a qualifying offer.
I’d be willing to go two years, but it would have to be below $10 million per year. Maybe around $8. And that’s only if I were running an AL team.
Jon Heyman has said that Kendrys Morales will reject the qualifying offer.
Yeah, that was Scott Boras saying that. I have a feeling he’s posturing. If the Mariners do actually offer the QO, I don’t see any way Morales passes it up.
If it was just about any other team, I’d say way below 14. Since Jack Z has set his personal floor at 14/yr (despite the fact that after Morales tanks his own value by rejecting the qualifying offer nobody else will offer anything close to that 14mil), I could easily see the M’s give him 2/30. Pure, uncut lunacy. And probably gives Dave Cameron an ulcer.
I would love him at 1yr/5, be happy at 1yr/7 – provided I have roster space for a dedicated DH. Something about switch hitters makes me happy, even if Morales is only league average vs lefties.
I said 2 years at 14million total is the most I would do. Doesn’t bring much to the plate for his position. But he will get paid much more by the Mariners.
For other teams: 1-2 years at 6-7 mil per if the Mariners actually do extend and he rejects a QO. You have to get a good value if you’re surrendering a pick especially if it’s unprotected. It comes down to AL teams in the top ten of draft that might be trying to win in 2014: which is just the Blue Jays.
If they offer and he rejects as reported, he is going to come running back to the Mariners and they’ll work out something like 2 years for 20 mil.
My opinion: M’s are dumb to offer. Morales is even dumber to reject.
Isn’t it possible that he’s just saying he’ll reject it, as a bluff, to ensure that he gets the offer?
Sure. That would be kind of funny.
I’m not sure what happens if they wait to sign until after the draft – does the penalty apply to the next draft? If not, there will be a guy that overstates his market in rejecting a QO only to sign mid June without the penalty.
There’s no point in Scott Boras bluffing to ensure that Kendrys Morales gets the qualifying offer when it’s been obvious that he would since the trading deadline and confirmed by Jack Zduriencik last week.
There’s every reason for Boras to say it.
It creates two possible outcomes:
1. The M’s believe him, and make the offer. Which Morales accepts, because it’s way over market for him.
2. The M’s don’t believe him, and don’t make the offer. Morales’ value as a free agent is higher than it would’ve been if he rejected a qualifying offer.
2 years and 25$ because the mariners will give him more then he’s worth.
I’d give him 1 and 8$.
submit button doesn’t seem to work.
$0 and 0 years* from anybody but Seattle. Rejecting the qualifying offer is a ridiculously stupid move. Morales is EXACTLY the type of players that MLB teams should not give up compensation to sign.
*The only way a non-Seattle team could possibly sign this guy would seem to be if they had a protected pick and a compensatory pick and had already given up their second round pick. Other than that, what a stupid maneuver at any price. Even with that, it is probably a stupid maneuver.
Look I agree that it’s probably a bad idea to be the highest bidder on Morales with the penalty attached, but we can’t act like a comp pick is worth infinity dollars.
The calculus has changed with the new CBA, but Victor Wang’s previous math had those top comp picks worth around ~$6 mil if I recall correctly. So just by the back of the envelope, if you think Morales is worth more than about 6 million a year, you should bid a positive amount.
Correct – thing is though, I could see Morales holding out for something like 10mil/yr minimum. I don’t think he knows that his value is so low, doubly so with a qualifying offer. With a qualifying offer, at 6mil/win, and 1.5 WAR projected next year, I couldn’t see offering more than say 3 or 4mil. He really might hold out for more, go unsigned til June. (madness)
Without the qualifying offer? I would give him 7-10mil/yr, could see somebody give him 15 – crazy talk!
I voted yes to the first question… even though it was *about what I expected, it was even more than I would have thought.
A proven RBI guy who also plays 1B. In fact, more RBI’s than Mark Tiexeiera since he came up, and as a free agent he won’t cost you all the prospects Texishieria did.
Since not too many people have heard of this guy, I’d offer 5 years at $85 million and see if you couldn’t steal him.
I concur with this approach. That fifth year is important to reassure Morales that he will still be with the team when the rebuild is complete and they are winning again.
Dayton, I hope they have one of these for FRanceour to hear your opinion on that 5-tool player!
Lets seem. They market gave him 1/$5.2m last year. He was essentially the same player, but he has been healthy 2 seasons now? I’d say 2/$14m perhaps?
Napoli,Loney,Hart,Morse,Reynolds,Morneau…etc create a pretty crowded market for old first basemen.
It might be me, but I’d rather get Loney on a 2 year deal or get Reynolds for pocket change.
I think he only gets a 1 year, $8-9 million deal from an AL team. Ever since The Walk-Off Grand Slam We Never Speak Of, he hasn’t been able to play 1B regularly. Not sure how much he played for Seattle this year, but I’m willing to assume that most of his starts came at DH. (I’m also assuming that there’s no draft pick compensation involved.)
Because of that, I’m predicting that Baltimore or Tampa Bay pick him up at that price. They get 1B insurance (which is all he really is now), and a decently productive DH that posted a .785 OPS in pitcher’s parks the past two seasons (okay, one is .787!). That would be welcome for Tampa, but it would be even bigger for an Orioles team that really needed a DH all year, and could possibly benefit from bringing Kowbell into a hitter’s haven.
I still can’t believe all that nonsense happened. I want those days back, with Bam Bam in the MVP race and 9 .300 hitters in the lineup 🙁
i have heard so many comments relating to this player,most of them under rating,and no ones has said what would have been his number with another team.if you do not have good player around you,you are not in good position to put it on.