Author Archive

Orioles Upgrade With Scott Feldman; Cubs Continue Stocking Up

And the trade season is officially here. We have our first significant trade of the year on July 2nd, and the timing of this move is not a coincidence.

First, the details, per Keith Law.

For the record, he meant Steve Clevenger, but he’s a throw-in in this deal, and it’s not like Baltimore is acquiring him to unseat Matt Wieters or anything. This deal is basically Feldman for two pitchers and, in a first for MLB, pool allocation money that will allow the Cubs to be more aggressive in international free agency. We’ll get to that part of the trade in a second. First, let’s start with what the Orioles are getting in Scott Feldman.

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The Dominating Pirates and Whether It Can Last

A month ago, I wrote that it was time to take the Pirates seriously, as their 33-20 record was a strong enough start to put them squarely in the playoff mix, even if we didn’t think they were going to keep playing like a .622 team going forward. Well, since that post was published, the Pirates have gone 18-10, which translates into a .642 winning percentage. Rather than beginning their regression to the mean, they’ve gotten better.

So, now, it’s July 1st and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the best record in baseball. They have a two game in the NL Central and a 10 game lead over the Washington Nationals for the second wild card. By pretty much any objective measure you want to use, it is now likely that the Pirates are going to make the postseason this year. At this point, wondering whether or not they’ll stay in contention is something of an outdated question; now, the real query now is just how good is this Pirates team?

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/13

11:57
Dan Szymborski: Party. Started. Explosions. Eroticism. One. Word. Sentences.

11:58
Comment From Gregory
Favorite whiskey-based cocktail?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Old-Fashioned. Though I drink very little with any kind of hard liquor due to stomach issues.

11:59
Comment From zack
What in the name of Kyle Blanks is going on in San Diego?

11:59
Dan Szymborski: SD’s having a fun year.

11:59
Comment From Nelson
So, the Pirates…. That’s it. That’s my question.

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The Remarkable Marco Scutaro

Marco Scutaro made his Major League debut at age-26. It took him two years to get regular playing time, and at age-28, given his first real chance as a big leaguer, he hit .273/.297/.393, good for a 77 wRC+ and an exactly replacement level performance. Undeterred, the A’s stuck with him, and he eventually turned into something pretty close to a league average hitter. From 2005 to 2012 — his age-29 to age-36 seasons — Scutaro posted a 98 wRC+, which isn’t bad at all for a middle infielder. He wasn’t anything special, but through hard work, a no-tools non-prospect turned himself into an average player. That’s a pretty big accomplishment.

But that’s not the amazing thing about Marco Scutaro. Well, not the most amazing thing anyway. The real remarkable story here is how he’s just continuing to get better.

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Miguel Cabrera’s Best Season Yet

Last year, we were pro-Mike Trout. The AL MVP debate pitted the Triple Crown against overall performance, and we came down on the side of evaluating players by things other than batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. Unfortunately, being pro-Mike Trout meant that we were perceived to be inherently anti-Miguel Cabrera. It’s not that we had anything against Cabrera, but he became the personification of The Other Side. In order to help explain why Trout was better, we had to point out where Cabrera was deficient relative to the guy we supported. It’s the nature of comparisons, but it’s not always fair to the guys being compared, especially when picking between multiple great players while trying to decide which one happened to be the greatest.

This post is not a comparison. This post is just about Miguel Cabrera, and appreciating how good he actually is, because as a follow-up to his Triple Crown season, Cabrera’s 2013 season is shaping up to be his best season yet, and one of the best offensive seasons in baseball history.

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The Most Obvious Trade That Needs To Happen

With the trade deadline a little more than a month away, we’re going to see a lot of rumors and speculation over the next few weeks, with reporters tying players to certain teams based on what they’ve heard from industry sources. This post is neither rumor nor speculation. No one in the game has suggested to me that this might happen. I have no inside information. I’m just pointing out a trade that, from an outside perspective, looks so glaringly obvious that it has to happen for the world to make sense.

The Oakland A’s need a second baseman. Well, maybe you could argue that they need a shortstop, because Jed Lowrie’s defense is pretty lousy at he’d be less harmful at 2B than SS, but Lowrie is still playing SS on a fairly regular basis, so technically, the A’s still need a second baseman. Preferably a second baseman who can hit. Eric Sogard is not a bad utility player to come off the bench, but he shouldn’t be playing regularly for a team in the midst of a pennant race. They should be able to do better.

So, let’s assume that the A’s are hunting for a second baseman, and not just a fill-in stop-gap type, but a guy who could make a real difference and push them over the hump as a legitimate World Series contender. But, because they’re the A’s and they’re constantly balancing current wins against maintaining enough assets for the future, they also need that impact player to come at something of a discount due to a diminished perception of his abilities. Basically, they need an impact player who people don’t think of as an impact player anymore.

They need Chase Utley.

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R.A. Dickey’s Encouraging Velocity Spike

R.A. Dickey’s first half hasn’t gone that well, as both he and the team struggled early. Lately, though, the Blue Jays are baseball’s most interesting turnaround, with the other players on the roster carrying the team while the Blue Jays knuckleballer tries to get things straightened out. As Eno Sarris noted back in May, Dickey’s velocity has been noticeably down this year, and while that might not seem like a big deal for a knuckleball pitcher, Dickey’s velocity with the floater is what has set him apart from previous hurlers who threw the pitch.

In an interview with Sarris a few weeks back, Dickey noted that health issues have contributed to the problem, but he was hopeful that he’d be able to bounce back soon. Last week, Drew Sheppard created a series of images showing the movement on Dickey’s various knuckleballers, including these two showing the difference in arm speeds from 2012 to 2013.

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FanGraphs Chat – 6/26/13

11:39
Dave Cameron: You know the drill. Queue is now open, and we’ll get started in 15 minutes or so.

11:59
Comment From AJT
How much faith do you have in the Pirates?

12:00
Dave Cameron: A good amount. This is a pretty decent team with some good players. They might be closer to a .500 team than a .600 team, but they’ve already got a 47-30 record, and there’s no reason to expect them to fall apart. At this point, they have to be a favorite for one of the two wild card spots.

12:00
Comment From Barack Obama
How did fangraphs get started?

12:00
Dave Cameron: David Appelman got bored and decided to build a site that would help him keep track of numbers he cared about for his fantasy team. Seriously.

12:01
Comment From Guest
Is domonic brown for real, or is he gonna fall off like crazy in the second half?

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Gerardo Parra: Stop Trying To Steal

Gerardo Parra is probably one of the most underrated players in baseball. He’s been on the Diamondbacks roster since 2009, but they never saw fit to give him a regular job, keeping him as a part-time reserve and injury fill-in, despite the fact that his production suggested he was good enough for a starting role. Finally, this year, a series of injuries to Adam Eaton, Cody Ross, and Jason Kubel have forced Kirk Gibson to put Parra in the line-up everyday, and he’s responded with his best performance to date. Through 335 plate appearances, he has a 133 wRC+ and UZR continues to rate him as an elite defensive outfielder, so he’s already at +3.1 WAR with half a season left to play.

However, in the midst of Parra’s excellent overall performance, there’s one glaring problem; he’s threatening to post one of the worst base stealing seasons in recent history.

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A Trade Target Leaderboard

Since I write most everyday here at FanGraphs, I keep a running list of things to do that serves as a queue for future post topics. One of the things on my to-do list has been to build a custom leaderboard of all the potential trade targets as we head towards the July 31st deadline, so that you guys could easily compare and sort various players who might fit needs for the teams you root (or work) for.

Well, in a pretty happy coincidence, that was apparently also on Tim Dierkes’ to-do list, and he’s more motivated than I, so he beat me to the punch. Not that I’m complaining, as now I get to write about the custom leaderboard he made without having to do any of the work.

Note that this list is just position players, and as Dierkes noted, it is a highly subjective list of who might be available. There are probably players listed who aren’t as available as they might seem from the outside, and players not listed who will end up getting moved over the summer. Dierkes, though, definitely knows the pulse of the rumor mill, given that he runs MLB Trade Rumors, the baseball news behemoth of the internet.

For the purposes of this post, I’ve reproduced the list of top 30 players by past 365 day WAR, but you should click through to the entire leaderboard to look at the 63 names he came up with. From there, you can sort them however you’d like, including using multiple years of data, isolating positions, splits versus pitcher types, and all the other goodies you can find on the leaderboards here on FanGraphs.

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