FanGraphs Chat – 6/26/13

Dave Cameron: You know the drill. Queue is now open, and we’ll get started in 15 minutes or so.

Comment From AJT
How much faith do you have in the Pirates?

Dave Cameron: A good amount. This is a pretty decent team with some good players. They might be closer to a .500 team than a .600 team, but they’ve already got a 47-30 record, and there’s no reason to expect them to fall apart. At this point, they have to be a favorite for one of the two wild card spots.

Comment From Barack Obama
How did fangraphs get started?

Dave Cameron: David Appelman got bored and decided to build a site that would help him keep track of numbers he cared about for his fantasy team. Seriously.

Comment From Guest
Is domonic brown for real, or is he gonna fall off like crazy in the second half?

Dave Cameron: Domonic Brown has power, and Domonic Brown is not as good as he’s hitting right now. These are not mutually exclusive things.

Comment From Joe
If an Aaron Hernandez-esque situation were to occur in the MLB, with a high profile player on a multi-year contract, would the team have any recourse in releasing the player as the Patriots did with Hernandez following his arrest?

Dave Cameron: A team can release a player whenever they want, but because MLB contracts are guaranteed, they wouldn’t derive any benefit from doing so. More likely, they’d put the player on the restricted list and seek to have his contract voided.

Comment From Brewski
Uggh…Ryan Braun not being able to take BP is problematic…an scoop on a return? It doesn’t sound like he’s even close.

Dave Cameron: Doubt the Brewers are in a huge hurry at this point. They know their season is toast.

Comment From Greg
Let’s say the Cubs want to try to contend next season – wouldn’t they be better off just keeping Schierholtz while he’s cheap?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but my guess is they’re looking longer term.

Comment From Zach
Does it make sense for the O’s to pursue ARam? They have the worst DH situation in the league and he is a good hitter and would be much more valuable in the AL at this point in his career. He also makes a lot of money, so the prospect haul should be modest, which is all the O’s appear willing to spend. One or two wins in their situation is a big deal. I don’t think obtaining someone like Nolasco provides as large an upgrade over in-house SP options. Sorry, long question/comment…

Dave Cameron: Including the buyout, Ramirez is due $20 million next year. I’m not sure I’d claim him on waivers, honestly.

Comment From An Optimistic Fan
What do you see from Prince Fielder in the 2nd half? I was expecting more this season

Dave Cameron: His ISO is at a career low, so he’ll probably improve some. But he’s not the franchise player that he’s getting paid to be.

Comment From Jason
Does it add value to go all offense at the beginning of a game (Matt Carpenter at SS, Allen Craig at 2B, Matt Adams a 1B) and then swap in real fielders as soon as a team gets a lead? Does it add value to start with the real fielders and go all offense as soon as a team falls behind?

Dave Cameron: You’re assuming that playing guys out of position would actually lead to getting a lead. In reality, the defense would be so bad that you’d probably end up behind and your pitcher would quit in frustration.

Dave Cameron: Part One: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip/

Dave Cameron: Part two: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip-part-two/

Comment From senorpogo
What’s the rationale for using FIP in WAR over ERA or runs? I’m fairly certain that I’m missing the obvious, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around the concept that a guy with a low FIP who, for whatever reason, gives up more runs than he should added more value to his team than the opposite. I understand why the guy with lower FIP will most likely pitch better in the long run, but isn’t WAR a measure of past performance rather than a predictive statistic? What am I missing?

Dave Cameron: Looks like the question published after the answers, so move those links down here. And, short answer, runs allowed is not “what actually happened” to the pitcher. If you use RA/ERA, you’re measuring run prevention, not pitching. Those are not the same thing.

Comment From David
What on Earth has happened to Chase Headley? The Padres’ offense is actually pretty decent, and it’s everyone except him!

Dave Cameron: He isn’t as good as he looked last year.

Comment From An Optimistic Fan
Are the A’s the favorite in that division?

Dave Cameron: Rangers are a little better.

Comment From Greg
You’re a contender in the market for a front-end starter – who would be your top target?

Dave Cameron: Cliff Lee. If he’s not available, there’s no alternative.

Comment From Zach
Wieters will be a FA at season’s end. Assuming he signs an extension, what do you think a fair one would be? How do see it actually playing out?

Dave Cameron: Wieters is not a free agent at the end of the year.

Comment From An Optimistic Fan
would you rather have Aoki or Ellsbury and why

Dave Cameron: Ellsbury, because he’s better.

Comment From Alex
Do you think the Tigers will be willing to send off Castellanos for a reliever?

Dave Cameron: Not unless they’re nuts.

Comment From HTD
ETA on Erasmo?

Dave Cameron: He’s waiting for one of the crappy veterans to implode.

Comment From HTD
Thoughts on Nathan Eovaldi?

Dave Cameron: Velo boost makes him interesting.

Comment From mix
What do you think happens when Carl Crawford comes back?

Dave Cameron: Andre Ethier gets traded.

Comment From Zach
Given that you have a background in economics (as do many saber geeks) but have been doing FG-type stuff for a long time, what do you think is the biggest and/or most common mistake economist types make when it comes to baseball analysis?

Dave Cameron: Misunderstanding replacement level.

Comment From Guest
Should and will the Mariners sign Morales?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, no.

Comment From Guest
Iglesias .434/.484/.575 in 113 AB’s vs. .420/.453/.716 in 81 AB’s for Puig.
Why does it seem like Puig is getting so much more attention?

Dave Cameron: Puig has the tools to back this up. Iglesias is getting a bunch of singles to fall in.

Comment From ryan
When can we look forward to the annual Trade Value Series?

Dave Cameron: Soon. I usually run it over the All-Star break since there’s nothing to write about those four days, but since the ASG is later this year, I might publish it in early July so as to not be bogged down while trade stuff is going on. It will be up within the next few weeks.

Comment From Guest
Who wins the AL East and will they get both wildcards?

Dave Cameron: Boston, no.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
I saw a report that Bundy had a “setback.” What’s the deal?

Dave Cameron: Turns out that pitchers who probably need TJ surgery don’t get better by sitting around not having TJ surgery.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Is fielding-dependent pitching included somehow in pitcher WAR on Fangraphs?

Dave Cameron: No, but it’s included in RA9WAR if you just want to see what his WAR would be based on runs allowed.

Comment From Alex
Bryce Harper’s batting average (.287) is higher than his BABIP (.284). How is that possible?

Dave Cameron: Batting average includes home runs.

Comment From STiVo
Break out the crystal ball: What do you think will happen with Ricky Nolasco?

Dave Cameron: He gets traded to the Dodgers.

Comment From John Stamos
With the likelihood of suspensions aside, do you believe the Biogenesis players should each be handed some amount of punishment?

Dave Cameron: For having their names written down in a notebook? No. If there’s some evidence that they did something wrong, it’s a different story. So far, the information that has been made public does not suffice as evidence.

Comment From zack
That Liriano signing looks pretty good doesn’t it?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Jordan
Given that they claim to be in “win now” mode, what specifically will the Royals do at 3B? What do you think they should do?

Dave Cameron: They’ll probably overpay for a right field upgrade. They should sell.

Comment From Jeff
Is Jason Kipnis one of those “good/very good at everything, great at nothing” kind of players doomed to be consistently underrated?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Buy or Sell
The Padres as a legitimate playoff contender this season.

Dave Cameron: Sell.

Comment From mix
Where do you see the Toronto Blue Jays in September?

Dave Cameron: Toronto for most of the time, other cities when they’re on the road.

Comment From zack
AROD isn’t good at dealing with the media is he?

Dave Cameron: I love how Brian Cashman venting about one of his own players is A-Rod’s fault.

Comment From Sam
What’s more detrimental to the Reds: Choo’s defense or ineptitude when facing LHP?

Dave Cameron: Both.

Comment From Need the Info
What is the hardest concept to understand for fans new to SABR-type analysis?

Dave Cameron: Probably DIPS.

Comment From Brad
Is Justin Verlander going to be JUSTIN VERLANDER at any point this year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m not worried.

Comment From Ben
Dustin Ackley in the outfield is interesting in the short term, but his value is so much higher as an infielder it seems like he has to move back in. Are the Mariners more likely to keep him or Franklin? Could Romero complicate that situation even further?

Dave Cameron: No harm in playing them both together this year and seeing which one is more likely to hit going forward, then trading the other one in the off-season. Romero’s not a big league second baseman.

Comment From Neal Huntington
What should I do at the deadline to help my team finally push it’s way out of obscurity this year?

Dave Cameron: Get another hitter and a starting pitcher.

Comment From Sadwick
I think at the end of the year I’m going to make a case study out of Rick Porcello. His stats this year have fascinated me, but I never get to watch him pitch. Are there any good video archives available for a modest/no fee?

Dave Cameron: MLB owns all video rights, so you have to sign up to MLB.tv in order to get their archives.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
What do you think Manny Machado’s true talent defensive level is: over/under +10 defensive runs above average per season?

Dave Cameron: At third base, +15.

Comment From SomeDude
Very premature, but what do you think are Matt Harvey’s chances of at least contending for the Cy Young this year?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably the favorite right now, so pretty good.

Comment From Bruce
Do teams actually get better returns when trading away players if they do so now, 1 month before the deadline, than at the deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yes, but some of that is selection bias. Asking prices are higher now, and players only get traded at this point if a team is willing to pay the higher price.

Comment From Kyle
Hey, Dave, which do you think is more likely: the Phillies signing Chase Utley to a long-term extension, or another team surrendering a top prospect or two for a 34-year-old with permanent knee issues? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Neither seem likely. My guess is Utley gets moved from a couple of decent-not-great prospects, then signs with someone besides Philly as a free agent.

Dave Cameron: Utley seems like a classic Billy Beane acquisition.

Comment From Greg
Do you think pitchers with the ability to limit walks but with average K potential are undervalued relative to guys with great stuff but mediocre control/command?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Gregory
When looking at a rotation and its defense, my first thought is that given a large sample size roughly everybody should be over or underperforming their FIP because they have the same defense behind them. Aside from batted ball profile, what else might stop that from being the case?

Dave Cameron: Randomness. Just because the teammates have the same name doesn’t mean they perform the same for every pitcher.

Dave Cameron: It’s the same reason why each starter doesn’t get equal run support, even though they have the same hitters in the line-up.

Comment From AB
Thoughts on Taijuan Walker and his AAA debut last night? Future #1 starter?

Dave Cameron: Stuff is good, command still comes and goes, but he’s on a good roll right now. Still think he’s got to develop his change-up to be better before he gets to the big leagues.

Comment From Slim Fats
Best guess of where Giancarlo Stanton might end up if he’s traded?

Dave Cameron: Texas, Seattle, New York seem to be likely bidders.

Comment From Peter
Do the Reds have a good enough front-end rotation to get them deeper into the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From senorpogo
Any advice for a liberal arts major about to take business statistics?

Dave Cameron: Switch majors. Math is great, and mathy jobs pay well.

Comment From Jason (Seattle)
Would you flip Iwakuma for prospects? Future M’s rotation of Hernandez, Walker, Hultzen, Ramirez, Paxton/Maurer still seems very good, and Iwakuma’s cost control could bring back some nice chips.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t trust this front office to make that trade, and pitching prospects have a very high flame out rate. The Mariners will be lucky to get two decent SPs out of that group.

Comment From Cave Dameron
Pretend the Pirates make the playoffs. Could they really compete in the postseason with Burnett, Liriano, Wandy, Locke?

Dave Cameron: Burnett/Liriano are good, Wandy is okay. They need a better #4.

Comment From Bo
Is insurance currently covering part of ARod’s contract? Would it be considered fraud for the Yankees to leave him disabled for longer than he actually needs to recover?

Dave Cameron: Yep, that’s basically the definition of insurance fraud.

Comment From Angus Archer
Dodgers would trade Ethier? What team would take on Andre Ethier’s 95 million dollar contract to acquire a player that basically warms the bench against left handed pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers will pick up a big chunk of the contract. And it’s not $95 million. It was an $85 million deal that began in April, so it’s down to about $78 million left.

Comment From Jason (Seattle)
Does Bundy/Matusz/Tillman/Britton/etc. show any trends with Baltimore developing young arms poorly? Would seem Duquette’s commentary on cutters would lend itself to that as well.

Dave Cameron: Pitchers get hurt. No one knows why. Blaming any one specifically is presumptuous.

Comment From Jason
Does Marmol land somewhere now that he’s been DFA’d?

Dave Cameron: I could see a non-contender taking a shot at trying to fix him.

Comment From _David _
Do you think the Mariners ownership knows the front office is now less Saber oriented than most other clubs? I ask because they might remember the hiring process when Z might have been had different ideas. Might they somehow blame new age thinking when hiring the next GM?

Dave Cameron: They know what’s going on.

Comment From Slim Fats
Is Kinsler a good comp for Kipnis?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, similar kinds of players.

Comment From Sean T.
Why are 12-6 curveballs deemed to be ‘better’ than curveballs that are more 11-5 or slurvy? In other words, why are breaking pitches sought to be more vertical than horizontal?

Dave Cameron: Pitchers that have vertical movement have little or no platoon splits, and can be used against hitters from either side. Slurvy breaking balls or sliders are generally only effective against same handed hitters. Also, slurvy pitches tend to not have as tight of breaks, making them easier to hit.

Comment From JT
are there stats that factor stole bases into a players total bases? seems crazy to me that ellsbury’s hitting metrics are so low when if you add steals to his total bases his slugging would be over .500. do we just have to factor big base stealers differently?

Dave Cameron: We have plenty of stats that value stolen bases, and SBs are included in a player’s WAR. You can’t just add SB bases to SLG, because they don’t advance runners the same way extra base hits do.

Comment From Aaron
Question about lineup protection: Isn’t it basically just a myth? I mean, a guy may see more fastballs if a base stealer is on base in front of him, but won’t that affect be minimal and often clouded by noise?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Comment From Scranton
It seems to me the most obvious upgrade for the Pirates would be in RF (with platoon partners for Alvarez and Walker being next most obvious). Do you think they should make a play for Rios/Schierholtz or trade for Stanton even if it costs them Taillon/Polanco +. I lean towards the first option because of Stanton’s injury history and Taillon and Polanco probably being ready to help in late 2014.

Dave Cameron: Stanton’s not available.

Comment From 5 cent head
I guess as an economist and a sabermetrician, you believe in behavioral economics. And the market inefficiencies that exist are most pronounced in what categories/positions? Is it overpaying for upside optionality or something just simple like mis-valueing runs?

Dave Cameron: Right now, I think the biggest market inefficiencies are in change-up specialist pitchers and no-standout-tool position players.

Comment From Vin
Cleveland Indians: buyers, sellers, or stand pat?

Dave Cameron: Probably stand pat.

Comment From Nick
I think you can sign up for MLB.tv towards the end of the season for a reduced price, and watch all the previous games from this year. I did it last year.

Dave Cameron: They also have a monthly sub option, so you don’t have to buy the whole year.

Comment From Hillier is a horrible fantasy manager
Does Brad Miller have any success at MLB level this year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he’s going to come up and hit.

Comment From Aaron
How much are you paying Jeff Sullivan? Whatever it is, it’s not enough.

Dave Cameron: Jeff actually works for free, because he just loves blogging that much.

Comment From Guest
Is Tyler Chatwood a #2-#3 starter now?

Dave Cameron: No.

Comment From Nik
If teams don’t want to give up good prospects for Utley the Phillies should keep him and give him the Qualifying Offer.

Dave Cameron: Doubt they could afford to give him $14 million next year.

Comment From Greg
What should KC do with Santana? Sell now for a right fielder or make a qualifying offer this winter and hope they bank a draft pick?

Dave Cameron: Trade him, but they won’t.

Comment From Cash Man
Randomness: Another concept people don’t understand (or at least fail to apply correctly)

Dave Cameron: Yeah, the lack of acceptance of randomness as a factor in life is pervasive.

Comment From Skore
About k/bb ratio, isn’t it a relative thing, because I would think someone with, in 90 innings, say, a 9/9 ratio would be better than someone with a 90/90 ratio. Is that not the case?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, K/BB isn’t really equal at all levels.

Comment From jono
which pitcher has more success. Pitcher 1 with a 70 fastball, and two 40 offspeed or Pitcher 2 with a 40 fastball and two 70 offspeed? Each has average command/control of all pitches

Dave Cameron: Pitcher 2.

Comment From Jack
what does Detroit do with the closer situation, stay with benoit, trade for one or promote Rondon

Dave Cameron: Trade for one.

Comment From Josh
Why is FIP used in the WAR equation instead of xFIP?

Dave Cameron: Because WAR is not a forecast. xFIP is a forecasting tool.

Comment From Guest
Why do you think people have missed on young players defensive value at third base? Coming up, Lawrie and Machado were seen as poor defenders, but are actually two of the best in the league. Underrating range?

Dave Cameron: No one saw Machado as a poor defender. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but I know a lot of people who loved Lawrie at 3B.

Comment From Greg
What’s the best haul you could see the Cubs getting for Garza and which team do you think is most likely to give it up?

Dave Cameron: A couple of B prospects. Baltimore.

Comment From Skore
If all 30 teams offered you a GM job simultaneously, with their current rosters, which would you take?

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals.

Comment From 626"
If you ever write a post dedicated to outside-the-box changes to MLB, I’d like to know what you think about how moving the mound back two feet would affect the game. I could see reductions in pitcher line drive injuries, decreases in strikeouts, etc.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think a structural change to the game like that is feasible. You have guys who have spent their whole life throwing the ball a specific distance. If you move the mound, it’s basically not even the same game anymore, and now every HS/college has to change too.

Comment From Kap
In same line as liberal arts question, does an engineering major have enough math background to contribute to a front office/baseball research?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I know a few engineers who work in MLB now. Or, you could become an engineer and make real money, then just keep baseball as your hobby.

Comment From Jacob
Favorite statistic to judge a pitcher? Least favorite?

Dave Cameron: You need more than one number to judge a pitcher properly. Least favorite is wins.

Comment From Steve
RE: Bundy, Matusz, Tillman, Britton. What about the cubbies and Prior and Wood? They had all the talent the injuries. Did the Cubs handle them wrong?

Dave Cameron: Overworking a young pitcher is probably the one time I’m okay with blaming an organization for a pitcher getting hurt.

Comment From Jason
Possibility that Cole can be that 4th starter for the Pirates? He broke out his slider against the Angels that he didn’t use in his other starts or in the minors when I saw him.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t trust him in a playoff start yet.

Dave Cameron: Plus, innings limits and all.

Comment From Reddickulous
What’s your favorite play in baseball?

Dave Cameron: The inside the park home run.

Comment From Sean T.
Thanks for the answer on the 12-6 break. Follow-up: why does this allow for less (or non-existent) of a platoon split?

Dave Cameron: Batters hit pitches coming in towards them really well, not so much pitches tailing away from them or diving down. So, curves/change-ups/split-fingers have little or no platoon split (sometimes even negative), while sliders or fastballs from low arm slots/sidearm pitchers have huge platoon splits.

Comment From RetireNutting
What if I just ask one question instead of two — can you think of any 2B/3B trade candidates who could be a good sub for Walker/Alvarez against LHP?

Dave Cameron: Kevin Frandsen, maybe. In the super cheap variety, anyway.

Comment From Joe
Difference between command and control?

Dave Cameron: Control is not walking batters, command is throwing the ball where you want it.

Comment From Nick
Why do teams say they don’t mind if their hitters strike out a lot but then place so much value on strikeout pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Strikeouts are correlated with power for hitters, so a high strikeout hitter is probably offsetting the Ks with a lot of home runs. Striking out batters is not correlated with giving up home runs for pitchers, so there’s not the offsetting effect on that side.

Comment From BX
Is the market still overvaluing HR power over other offensive skills (as in, plus offensive players who don’t hit lots of HRs)?

Dave Cameron: Yeah.

Comment From SW
My friend thinks WAR is “dumb.” What’s the counterargument to such brilliance?

Dave Cameron: “Your mom.”

Comment From Guest
Joe Mauer is good at baseball.

Dave Cameron: This is a true statement.

Comment From BassmanUW
My understanding is that most (if not all of the writers aside from you) are writing for FG for free, with one of the ideas being that the national stage on FG will provide them access to paying gigs in the future.

Dave Cameron: We pay all of our writers. Five of us are full time. No one is writing for FG for free.

Comment From The Beeve
Following the recent success of the A’s platooning position players, do you think we’ll ever see a return to fewer relievers on the 25 roster?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think we’ll head that way if the low run environment stays in effect for the next few years.

Comment From Greg
Is the idea of K/BB maybe a bit misleading then? Since they have different values in the FIP calculation, would something like 2*K/3*BB be more useful?

Dave Cameron: Tango likes to promote K-BB, or strikeout differential basically.

Comment From The Beeve
If you were commissioner: would you add any franchises (how many, where?), keep them the same, move teams, or contract teams?

Dave Cameron: Wouldn’t expand or contract. I’d move the A’s to San Jose and the Rays to Brooklyn.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/linear-weights/

Comment From ryan
Saw Andy Marte playing for the York Revolution (Atlantic League) over the weekend. How highly regarded of a prospect was he?

Dave Cameron: Elite. I loved him.

Comment From Jay
Former O’s GM A. MacPhail said his strategy was to “grow the arms and buy the bats” (others think this too) and referred to Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman and Britton as the calvery. A few years later and it looks like Tillman is on his way to being a solid starter and Matusz at least a good lefty reliever. Arrieta looks lost and its hard to know what to make of Britton. If this is “all” — would you consider this to be a reasonable outcome for 4 pitching prospects or should we have expected more? If more, how much more?

Dave Cameron: I think that’s exactly backwards. Grow the bats, buy the arms.

Comment From Matt (Steinway)
Why are so many teams content to play below-average hitters who also strike out in over %25 of their at bats? Not very long ago, 100 K’s made you almost a pariah. Now some players reach that mark in June.

Dave Cameron: Because strikeouts for a hitter aren’t problematic if they’re offset with power.

Comment From bendhudson@gmail.com
I’m an accountant. I want to work for FG. I will work for no money.

Dave Cameron: Submit posts to the Community Blog. If they’re good, and you do them regularly, we may very well hire you.

Comment From NatsFan73
Re: your FG+ article of a few days ago, what do you think of a Soriano for Smyly deal?

Dave Cameron: The Tigers would be nuts to do that.

Comment From 23553
If one were to want a sabermetrics related summer internship, where would they reach out to? Would you guys want one?

Dave Cameron: If you want to intern for FG, send a note through the contact link.

Comment From Skore
MLB has a rule against 3 teams in the same area, so no on Brooklyn. Maybe Tijuana, Honolulu, Vancouver?

Dave Cameron: The question was if I was commissioner. In that scenario, I can change that rule.

Comment From Jay
Back to the MacPhail question — I guess the question is if you have 4 fairly highly regarded pitching prospects, how many should you reasonably expect to make it as a starter, reliever and flame out (not that we know the true outcome of any yet).

Dave Cameron: 1 starter, 1 reliever, 2 nothings.

Comment From Leon
Who are good examples of “change-up specialist pitchers and no-standout-tool position players”?

Dave Cameron: James Shields is the perfect example of the kind of pitching prospect who goes under the radar. For position players, Angel Pagan.

Comment From illinibob
Do you see Bud Norris moving this year? To whom?

Dave Cameron: I could see the Padres taking a shot at him.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to grab some lunch. Thanks for hanging out.