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A’s Should Also Skip the Starter
A few weeks ago, I advocated for a wild card play-in game strategy that involved beginning the game with a reliever and relying heavily on a team’s bullpen to get them through. In that scenario, we used the Atlanta Braves as the example of how it could work. Well, we’re not yet to the wild card play-in game, but with Texas and Oakland going head to head for the AL West title in a few hours, we’re presented with another situation where skipping the starter makes a lot of sense – specifically, the Oakland A’s should try to maximize their chances of winning Game 162, and they can do so by diminishing A.J. Griffin’s role in today’s game.
Make no mistake, Griffin has pitched really well for the A’s since they called him up from Sacramento in late June. While his ERA is heavily dependent on an unsustainably low BABIP, his FIP and xFIP are both above average as well, as his 3.76 K/BB ratio is the kind of thing that usually leads to success. This isn’t a knock on A.J. Griffin – the A’s can simply maximize their chances of winning by minimizing the amount of batters he faces.
Yadier Molina is Having a Johnny Bench Season
Yadier Molina has always been an amazing defensive catcher, but like most amazing defensive catchers, he hasn’t always been a very good hitter. In fact, for the first three years of his career, he was a pretty terrible hitter, and then he spent four years as an average-ish hitter before his breakout season last year. Well, we thought last year was his breakout season anyway. This year is Breakout 2.0, as Molina has put himself among not just the elite hitting catchers in the game, but has produced at a level that is outstanding for any position. And in the process, he’s having one of the best all-around catcher seasons in baseball history.
There have always been catchers who can hit but can’t throw, and throw but can’t hit, but there haven’t been many who have hit and thrown like Molina has this year. Below is a table of every season in Major League history where a catcher posted both a 140 wRC+ or better and threw out 45% or more of attempted base stealers.
Michael Bourn’s Market Value
If you go to the Free Agent Leaderboards, you’ll see Michael Bourn’s name at the top, as the sort for the list is set to descending 2012 WAR, and Bourn has the highest WAR this season (+6.1) of any upcoming free agent. We can pretty much guarantee that Bourn isn’t going to sign the largest contract this winter, though, as free agent value isn’t simply based on a player’s most recent season, nor are all skills as likely to be sustained going forward, and various skills have different valuations in the marketplace. Bourn’s combination of average offense and terrific defense is a valuable package, but how will it translate into market value?
Well, before we figure out how much he’ll get paid, we first have to figure out how much of his 2012 value he’ll retain in future years, or at least, how much teams will expect him to retain. There’s no question that the average offense/great defense package can be highly valuable, but it’s also a young man’s skillset. Here is a list of every player in the UZR era (2002-2012) that has posted a +5 WAR season while running a wRC+ below 110.
The Red Sox, Market Value, and Actual Value
The Red Sox currently have a .448 winning percentage, the eighth worst mark in baseball. They haven’t performed this poorly on the field since 1966, when they went 72-90, finishing with a better record than only one other AL team – the New York Yankees. Over the last 35 years, the sport has undergone some pretty significant changes, and neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees are used to having these kinds of seasons anymore. This kind of large scale failure is simply not something that anyone associated with the franchise has had to deal with in the last three decades, and not surprisingly, it has prompted a lot of changes in response.
Gone are many of the most visible faces of the last few years. Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett were all shipped out mid-season, and it seems like a foregone conclusion that Bobby Valentine will be leaving after the year ends. The Red Sox aren’t just going for a talent adjustment; they’re looking for a culture change.
And that change is apparently going to start with the valuation of talent.
Roster Expansion and September Hitting
Over the last few weeks, several players who have had pretty lousy years have gotten hot at the same time. For instance, here are the September lines for some various players:
Ichiro Suzuki: .424/.452/.593, 207 wRC+
Carlos Pena: .293/.473/.512, 172 wRC+
Gaby Sanchez: .311/.436/.556, 170 wRC+
Justin Smoak: .345/.419/.527, 165 wRC+
Justin Upton: .312/.365/.558, 147 wRC+
Russell Martin: .246/.358/.491, 136 wRC+
Ichiro was essentially give away by the Mariners at the trade deadline (at his request), a sign of just how far he’d fallen from his time as the franchise icon. Pena, Sanchez, and Smoak all played themselves out of jobs earlier this year. Upton struggled to the point that Arizona made him available for trade talks, and is widely expected to move him this winter. And, while Martin has shown decent power for a catcher, his average has hovered around the Mendoza Line all season.
When you mention that these kinds have had a good run the last few weeks, there are generally two responses:
A. Small Sample Size, which, well, yes, of course it is.
B. September hot streaks should be discounted because of roster expansion, as inferior non-MLB pitchers are taking the hill and skewing offensive numbers around the sport.
AL MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago
While I wrote most of what I had to say about the AL MVP discussion a few days ago, I do have one more question I want to ask – what’s so different about Cabrera this season compared to 2010?
Most of the case for Cabrera’s candidacy rests upon the idea that he’s having an historic offensive performance, and that denying him the award would be some kind of historical injustice. But, if we look at his 2012 season and his 2010 season side by side, can we really make the case that this year is all that different from what he did two years ago?