If you missed it yesterday, Ben Badler of Baseball America has some pretty fascinating background about the Orioles saga with Korean prospect Seong-Min Kim. You probably heard about the signing when the Korean Baseball Organization filed a protest with Major League Baseball due to the Orioles failing to follow protocol. The deal ended up being voided, Kim was suspended by the KBO, and Orioles scouts were banned from games in Korea over the incident.

However, as Badler reports, there appears to be way more to the story than just a snafu over the improper signing of a prospect.

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According to Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, Major League Baseball and the Player’s Association have come to some sort of agreement that will allow for the possibility of expanded playoffs beginning this season, and an announcement to that effect will come tomorrow.

At the beginning of the month, Jayson Stark highlighted some of the issues with expanding the playoffs for 2012 after the schedules had already been set. Because the dates for the end of the regular season (October 3rd) and the beginning of the World Series (October 24th) are set in stone and cannot be moved, the league had to figure out how to get the play-in games (and any potential tie-breakers) into a three week window that already needed to house the Division and League Championship series. As Stark noted, the most likely way to handle this issue was to eliminate a day off during the Division Series, so the five game sets would be played out over six days.

I’m all in favor of contracted schedules for playoff series that do more to emulate the pace of the regular season. Teams have been able to manipulate the off days in the postseason schedule to lean heavily on just a few pitchers, and a more compact schedule should make depth more valuable in the postseason. I’d consider that a good thing.

However, the regular season schedule is created with travel in mind. When a team has a cross country flight, they often have a travel day to assist them in getting to their destination, or will play a “getaway” afternoon game that gets them in the air with enough time to still get some sleep in their new city that evening. Since MLB cannot control the geographical distance between Division Series opponents, it is quite possible that we could have a first round match-up between teams 2,000+ miles apart – say, for instance, the Angels and the Red Sox. That would be problematic if the schedule for the Division Series called for games on October 6th, 7th, 9th, 10th, and 11th.

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We’re just over two weeks away from the first annual SABR Analytics Conference, and it is shaping up to be a pretty fantastic event. The last time we talked about it, only a few speakers had been publicly announced, but the guys over there have been steadily announcing more and more great additions, and now the full agenda is out for all to see. Some of the daily highlights include:

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Yadier Molina is one of my favorite players in the sport. His combination of elite defensive skills and developing offense gives him a real argument to be considered the best catcher in the sport, and he’s one of the main reasons the Cardinals have been a contending team since he took over as their regular catcher in 2005. And, beyond just his on field value, Molina is remarkably entertaining to watch, as his footwork and arm strength allow him to do things that most catchers can’t even dream of.

However, as much as I love Molina, I figured his contract extension talks with the Cardinals would end with him re-signing for something like $40 million over four years with some sort of vesting option at the end of the deal. Instead, he’s reportedly agreed to a five year contract with St. Louis worth between $70 and $75 million, per Ken Rosenthal, which would be the third richest deal for a catcher in the history of the game – only Joe Mauer ($184 million) and Mike Piazza ($91 million) made more in a single contract. Given the enormous gap between what I thought Molina would sign for and what he actually got from St. Louis, my initial reaction is that this was an overpay by the Cardinals. Even as good as Molina’s defense is – and as limited as our abilities are to accurately value catcher defense right now – they’re still signing up for the age 30-34 seasons of a catcher who has carried a pretty heavy workload up to this point in his career. At $14 million per year, Molina is going to have to remain one of the game’s best catchers in order to justify the salary. What are the odds that he’ll still be an elite player in 2017?

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A few weeks ago, I announced that I’d be hosting an Ottoneu league to help raise money for the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society. The generosity of the baseball community helped us raise over $8,000 in three days, which is frankly amazing, and I never cease to be amazed at how great the people in this community really are.

If you’re interested in joining the Cancer Sucks Ottoneu league, there are still a few days left to donate at our Team in Training page. Remember, the top 11 donors who express interest in a spot in the league will get a spot. One spot has already been claimed with an amazing $2,500 donation, but there are 10 more up for grabs. Any size donation will get you in the running – just donate through the TNT page with your real name and then drop me an email at dave.cameron@fangraphs.com and let me know you’re interested in being part of the league. Even a $25.00 donation could get you a spot in the league and a chance to play fantasy baseball to help wipe out blood cancers.

Thanks again for your support, and I look forward to returning to fantasy baseball with a great group of generous folks who also hate cancer.

The Nationals continued to lock up their core talent today, agreeing to terms on a six year, $100 million extension for third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. The extension is tacked on to the end of his current deal, which pays him $26 million over the next two seasons, so he’s essentially now under contract for the next eight years for $126 million, and if a team option is exercised for 2020, the deal could turn out to be $150 million over nine years.

That’s a big paycheck, but Zimmerman is one of the game’s most underrated players, and the Nationals correctly identified his skillset as one worth keeping around. However, there’s continuing skepticism around every player who generates a lot of value with his glove, and people continue to be uncomfortable projecting stardom for guys who rely on their defensive skills to sustain elite performance. Since Zimmerman is a good bat/great glove guy, not everyone is on board with committing $100 million to that skillset, thinking that the value may not be there if the defensive value degrades with age and injury.

So, I figured it’d be instructive to look at how some other players with this skillset have aged recently. Here’s my list of comps, and their performance through age 26 – for reference, Zimmerman’s at a 119 wRC+, +52 FLD, and +30.2 WAR in 3,669 PA, or more generalized, 4.9 WAR per 600 PA.

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Confirmation Bias:

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias, myside bias or verification bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs.

Confirmation bias is probably more prevalent among baseball fans than any other logical fallacy. We’ve all gone to a game and sat near the guy who booed when the manager brought in a mediocre reliever to try and preserve a lead, then watched the reliever implode and the loud angry fan tell everyone that “he knew” that guy was going to give up those runs. In reality, he didn’t actually know what was going to happen – since he’s really just a loud angry fan and not a fortune telling wizard – but the fact that events aligned to match his preconceived expectations led to a reinforced belief in his own prior opinion.

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According to Jerry Crasnick, Roy Oswalt may announce today that he’s going to sit out the first half of the season, then make himself available to contenders for the second half of the season, also known as the late career model set by Roger Clemens. Oswalt rebuffed offers from teams outside his geographical preference, and by waiting June, he’ll leave open the possibility that either St. Louis or Texas will decide that they need him after all.

Still, training on your own and throwing bullpens at home isn’t the same thing as facing Major League hitters. While Oswalt can do his best to keep in top physical condition, he’s not going to be able to replicate a live game situation. And, any team looking to sign him this summer will have to take the lack of recent performance into consideration when they offer him a contract. That extra risk will likely drive the price down, and Oswalt will probably end up settling quite a bit less than he could have gotten if he signed with a team now.

So, here’s a thought – maybe Oswalt and his agent should invent the anti-no-trade clause. We’ll call it the Must Trade clause. Pick a team that could use a quality starter, plays in a pitcher’s park (in order to keep his value as high as possible), and isn’t expected to be a strong contender this year – say, for instance, the Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, or the Pittsburgh Pirates. Sign with them for something along the lines of the $8-$10 million for one year that Oswalt has reportedly been seeking from Texas or St. Louis.

However, make it a non-standard contract with a few interesting wrinkles.

1. The base salary is $5 million, paid out evenly over the course of the season.
2. There’s a $3-$5 million signing bonus, payable September 1st.
3. Oswalt specifies a list of teams to which he will accept a trade before the season begins.
4. If Oswalt is not traded to one of those teams by August 1st, he has the right to opt out of the contract and become a free agent.

Under this scenario, Oswalt is basically guaranteed to end the season with a team that fits his criteria for where he wants to play, and he gets more money than he will in any scenario where he sits out until mid-season. In addition, he gets to spend the first few months of the season facing Major League hitters hitters and proving that he’s still a quality starter. An expected also-ran gets a low cost rotation upgrade for the first half of the season and the chance to flip him for a interesting prospect at the deadline. And contenders can wait around and see how their roster shakes out before deciding if they want to bring in Oswalt for the stretch run.

Everyone wins. Plus, it’s interesting. What do you say, Roy? Want to be the first guy with a Must Trade clause in your contract?

This morning, David Appelman added the 2012 ZIPS projections to the site. While it’s certainly true that most projection systems spit out pretty similar results, ZIPS remains my projection system of choice. Dan Szymborski has done a great job of maintaining the model without huge year to year fluctuations, and the in-season ZIPS tool is a great way to get a feel for how important updated data during the season is in various categories.

So, let’s take a quick stroll through the 2012 ZIPS projections and look at some of the results that stand out. We’ll go position by position, starting behind the plate, and remind you that this is sorted by offense only:

Catcher

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