A few hours ago, news broke that the Yankees finally shipped Jesus Montero to Seattle for their premium right-handed starting pitcher. However, despite a couple of years of rumors and suggestions, Felix Hernandez is not the one donning pinstripes – the Yankees landed 23-year-old (in five days, anyway) Michael Pineda instead.

While Pineda isn’t King Felix, he’s a pretty terrific young pitcher in his own right. He jumped directly into the Mariners rotation out of spring training last year and was good enough to make the All-Star team in his rookie season. And, while Safeco Field is a nice place for a rookie pitcher to learn his craft, Pineda did most of the good work on his own.

Among qualified AL starting pitchers last year, only Brandon Morrow and Justin Verlander posted a higher strikeout rate than Pineda, who whiffed 24.9% of the batters he faced. His K% was better than David Price, CC Sabathia, and yes, even Felix. Pineda’s live fastball and willingness to live up in the strike zone led to a lot of swinging strikes, and that had nothing to do with the park he played in.

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A few minutes ago, Buster Olney tweeted out a note that the asking prices on free agent pitchers is on the way down, specifically naming Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Roy Oswalt. In the message, he noted that Oswalt is said to be asking for $8 million on a one year contract, where he hopes to prove he’s healthy, re-establish his value, and land a raise next winter.

At $8 million for one year, the line for Roy Oswalt should be out the door. I’d venture to go so far as to argue that any contender with enough money to spend is wasting a potential golden opportunity by letting him sit out on the market any longer. At that price, Oswalt might just be the biggest bargain of the winter.

There seem to be a few factors conspiring to drive down Oswalt’s pricetag, but all of them are related to questions about his health. Last year, he was limited to just 139 innings due to lingering back problems that landed him on the disabled list a couple of times. He also saw his average fastball velocity decline from 92.6 MPH to 91.4 MPH, and saw his strikeout rate drop from 23.1% to 15.7%. These kinds of declines are often evidence of health problems and cause for concern going forward.

But, in this case, I think those concerns are generally overblown. We know Oswalt was hurt, so we shouldn’t be overly surprised to find evidence of diminished performance while he was fighting back problems. Back problems can certainly linger, and this could come back to affect his performance in 2012 as well, but we can’t ignore the fact that Oswalt ended the season as a healthy pitcher who looked every bit as good as he had earlier in his career.

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The Reds entered the off-season with two possible paths forward:

1. Trade Joey Votto for a bushel of young players and accept a consolidation while breaking in the foundation of their next core group of everyday players.

2. Trade some of those young players for roster upgrades in an effort to win while they have Votto under contract.

They choose the second path, shipping Yonder Alonso and friends to San Diego for Mat Latos, sending Travis Wood to Chicago for Sean Marshall, and then using most of their remaining budget allowance to sign Ryan Madson to a one-year deal to take over as the team’s closer. While Latos offers both present and future value, the other moves only upgrade Cincinnati’s roster for 2012, and next winter, they’ll have a tough time retaining Madson, Marshall, and Brandon Phillips while also paying Votto the significant raise that his contract calls for.

So, the Reds are something close to being all-in on this season. If they win, they might create enough extra revenue to give Votto a long-term mega-contract and keep their franchise player. If they don’t win, however, then they’re going to have a hard time selling Votto on re-signing, and they’ll have to explore moving him before he can leave via free agency. That’s not a good scenario, and so the Reds should be highly motivated to maximize their positive outcomes in 2012.

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We’re proud to be partnering with the Society for American Baseball Research and presenting the first annual SABR Analytics Conference, which will take place in Mesa, Arizona from March 15th through the 17th. The conference is going to be a baseball nerd’s paradise, combining interesting discussions with new research presentations, and essentially serving as a three day window into how the game operates and what new things are on the horizon. The attendees are going to be a veritable who’s who of influential people in baseball, including:

Chicago Cubs chairmen Tom Ricketts
Cleveland Indians president Mark Shapiro
Arizona Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall
Anaheim Angels GM Jerry DiPoto
Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin
Cleveland Indians GM Chris Antonetti

Some of the topics on the agenda:

How technology is changing baseball
Managers Panel on how analytics has changed the game
GM Panel on how analytics shape decisions
Measuring player performance
Technology and in-game strategy
Hit f/x and Field f/x: where analytics are headed
Scouting and analytics
What we can all learn from fantasy baseball?
How much is “too much” when it comes to using analytics?

Additionally, many of the bigger names in the online baseball community will be sitting in on panel discussions, presenting original research, or providing their insight in a unique way. David Appelman and myself will both be there, and FanGraphs is looking forward to helping create an event that is one of the highlights of the year for the analytically-inclined baseball fan.

The full registration fee for the event is $495, but early bird registration is now available for the discounted price of $350, which includes a one year membership to SABR as well. If you’re already a SABR member, the price is only $250, and that price also applies if you’re a currently enrolled high school or college student. You can register for the event directly through SABR’s store, and since early bird registration won’t last too much longer, so I’d suggest doing so sooner than later.

If you’re thinking about making a trip to Arizona this year, I’d definitely try to schedule your trip so you’re around for this. It promises to be a fantastic event for hardcore baseball fans.

This off-season, Major League teams forced a quality group of proven closers into a game of musical chairs. There were too many guys with ninth inning experience on the market and not enough jobs to go around, which directly led to Ryan Madson‘s decision to take the last available closer’s job by signing a one year deal with Cincinnati. Madson’s move to the Reds likely closed the door on Francisco Cordero’s ability to return to his prior team, and now that the music has stopped, he finds himself as the guy without a home.

It’s no coincidence that Cordero is the odd man out, however – his current employment status is simply a reflection of the fact that his performance last year threw up a ton of red flags about how much longer he’ll be an effective high leverage reliever.

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This afternoon, the results of the 2011 Hall of Fame voting will be announced. Spoiler alert – Barry Larkin is going in and no one else stands much of a chance. This is basically in line with recent precedent, where the Baseball Writer’s Association of America is relatively stingy with their election even when presented with multiple quality candidates. By and large, the 75 percent voting threshold for induction leads the BBWAA to be a de facto “small hall” organization, electing only the very best players of all time – and then a few players that the writers just have irrational affections towards.

In fact, of the 206 former players enshrined in Cooperstown, only 111 have been placed there by the baseball writers. Perusing nearly any year’s voting results at random will provide an example of just how stingy the BBWAA can be when it comes to voting. In the 1966 vote that I just linked to, 6.6% of the electorate didn’t cast a ballot for Ted Williams. Ted Williams!

Now, I’m not here to tell anyone what their personal Hall of Fame standard should be. If you feel like that the Hall should be reserved for just the absolute cream of the crop, that’s something of a personal preference. Likewise, if you’re more liberal in your interpretation of what a Hall of Famer should be, then that’s an easily defendable position as well. And, many of the arguments over whether the many players on the bubble should be elected or not basically come down to disagreements over personal preference for a “big hall” or a “small hall”. Big hall guys want Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, and Larry Walker elected, while small hall guys point out the valid flaws in their resumes. For players like that, the differences aren’t generally about the quality of the player, but about the standard that should be applied for election.

But, as was pointed out in a terrific piece by David Schoenfield last week, there is one organization whose opinion on the size of the Hall of Fame should probably matter the most – the actual board of trustees of the Hall itself. And they’ve made it fairly clear that they want a big hall of Fame.

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In the weekly Wednesday chat, one of the popular subjects was the Braves pursuit of Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones. According to reports, Atlanta has been trying to land Jones for the better part of a few months, using Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado as the bait, while the Orioles demand a lot more in return for their center fielder. A segment of Braves fans seem to be offended by the asking price for Jones, believing that the Orioles demands for a guy with a .319 OBP is unwarranted.

But, here’s the thing with trading for a guy like Adam Jones – you aren’t paying for what he has been, you’re paying for what he could be.

The 2008-2011 version of Adam Jones has been a slightly above average player, not the star he was projected to be as a prospect. As has been noted by Atlanta fans many times, his low on base percentage has held him back from being an offensive force, and he’s shown few signs of improving his plate discipline to date. Additionally, UZR hasn’t exactly loved his defense in center field, so he’s topped out at +2.9 WAR in his best season to date.

If that’s all Adam Jones was, then Braves fans would be right that Baltimore was asking too much for his final two years of team control. However, the Orioles see potential for significant improvement from their center fielder, and history backs up their point of view.

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