Josh Hamilton thinks his eye color is the cause of his hitting problems during day games, and at least one optometrist agrees with him. After initially thinking it was just talk, the idea that there could be some scientific explanation that explained his problems made this story more interesting. So, the next natural step was to look at some data.

On Friday, we asked you guys to come up with blue-eyed players, and you responded with enthusiasm. Over the weekend, I went through that thread and looked at all the nominated players, compiling a list of guys who might make for a useful comparison to Hamilton. I left out players who played a significant part of their career in a dome, for instance, and left out guys who were noted sunglass/tinted contact lens wearers, as we wanted to measure the performance of light eyes in day light with as few compounding factors as possible. Overall, I came up with 25 players who fit the criteria. It doesn’t sound like a huge number, but those guys combined for over 47,000 day-time plate appearances and over 100,000 night time plate appearances in their careers, so sample size shouldn’t be a problem.

The results? Well, you probably won’t be too surprised.

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Earlier this week, Josh Hamilton created some headlines when he claimed his eye color was the cause of his struggles during day games. ESPN found an optometrist who supports his theory, so maybe it’s not as crazy as it initially sounded. I immediately wanted to look at the data to see if other blue-eyed players had similar struggles in the day time, but realized that there isn’t exactly a comprehensive database of eye color for Major Leaguers.

But, the FanGraphs audience watches a lot of baseball (when they’re not staring at spreadsheets, anyway), and you guys have some observational powers, so I’d like to try crowdsourcing this. Here’s what I’m asking from you guys – in the comments, give us evidence of players who have blue eyes. Photos are probably the best option, but an article from a reputable source that references a player’s blue eyes probably works too.

If we can get a decent sized sample of players who can be confirmed to have blue eyes, we can look and see how they did in day games compared to night games, and see whether there’s anything to Josh Hamilton’s claims after all. Once we have a decent amount of names, we’ll crunch the data and report the results.

Go crowd go.

As we head toward trade season, the Cincinnati Reds find themselves at 39-37, two games out of first place. But since they’re trailing both Milwaukee and St. Louis, it’s always more difficult leapfrogging two teams than just one, and with the Braves playing well in the East, the odds of a wild card berth aren’t that great. So, while the Reds are certainly contenders, they also can’t sit on their heels and hope a division title lands in their lap.

No team in baseball, however, is in a better position to make a blockbuster, season-altering trade than the Reds. The Reds have more talent in Triple-A than several teams do in the Majors, and they have depth on the Major League roster they can move as well. Having multiple interesting young players at every position is nice, but it’s time for the Reds to turn some of that excess into the best big league player(s) they can acquire.

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Like most hitters in Oakland this year, David DeJesus is not doing so well. The A’s acquired him from the Royals to give their offense a spark, but thus far he has racked up just a .229/.313/.358 line and has begun to find himself on the bench with some regularity. During interleague play, Bob Melvin has chosen to use Hideki Matsui in the outfield in lieu of playing DeJesus, a sign of just how uninterested Melvin is in using DeJesus.

That said, DeJesus is actually having a pretty standard season in many areas. In fact, take a look at his 2011 marks compared to the last two seasons:

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After being optioned to Triple-A Colorado Springs, Dexter Fowler is back in the minors trying to show the Rockies that he can still help them win baseball games. I honestly have no idea whether he helped or hurt his cause last night. Below is a breakdown of his six plate appearances in their 5-4 extra innings victory over Tacoma:

1st inning: Walk
3rd inning: Walk
5th inning: Walk
7th inning: Walk
11th inning: Walk
13th inning: Line out

By drawing walks in each of his first five plate appearances, Fowler tied the PCL record for most walks in a single game. His OBP for the evening was a stellar .833, even after he got tired of free passes and swung at the first pitch he saw in his final at-bat. Anyone who can get on base five times in a ballgame is helping their team win, right?

Err, maybe not. Here’s what else Fowler did after reaching base last night:

1st inning: Doubled off first base on a fly out to right field.
3rd inning: Thrown out trying to advance to third base on a single to left field.
5th inning: Picked off first base by pitcher.
7th inning: Out at second on a double play groundout.
11th inning: Drama Free!

Despite reaching base five times, Fowler never advanced farther than second base safely, and he made three outs on the bases through his own actions. We can’t hold him responsible for Ian Stewart’s GIDP in the seventh, of course, the first three outs are clearly on him, as is the final out when he actually swung the bat. Once you account for baserunning, Fowler didn’t do much to help his team all that much after all.

Since beginning his stint in Triple-A (which began as a rehab assignment but is now more permanent), Fowler is just 3 for 34, and the five walks last night only served to increase his OPS for Colorado Springs to .343. Not exactly demanding a spot back in the big leagues so far; in fact, I’d guess that Fowler is well on his way to being a “change of scenery” player, and he might be trade bait for the Rockies this summer.

Last week, I wrote about how the dramatic turnaround Josh Beckett has experienced this year has been mostly driven by a huge change in his BABIP, and in doing so, noted that this year’s version of Beckett doesn’t seem to be that different from last year’s version. The always insightful David Pinto responded, using Pitch F/x data and heat maps to show that Beckett’s pitches are showing a real difference this year. His conclusion:

To sum up, Beckett exhibited less control of a straighter fastball in 2010. Batters hit that pitch harder. Beckett’s bad luck seemed more due to an injury hurting his mechanics than balls finding holes on good pitches.

DIPS is often right, as it was on Dan Haren. In the case of Beckett, however, there is reason to believe that his improvement is more than just regression to and past the mean. Sometimes pitchers make their own luck.

In reality, I don’t think David and I actually disagree here — he just corrected some sloppy writing on my part, and that got me thinking that I probably needed to talk more about BABIP and regression, because too often, we just sum up variation as luck but don’t explain what we really mean by that. So, here’s a general take on what I see as the main causes of variations in BABIP.

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Today, Bud Selig issued this statement:

“Mr. McCourt has been provided with an expansive analysis of my reasons for rejecting this proposed transaction. Critically, the transaction is structured to facilitate the further diversion of Dodgers assets for the personal needs of Mr. McCourt. Given the magnitude of the transaction, such a diversion of assets would have the effect of mortgaging the future of the franchise to the long-term detriment of the club and its fans. As I have said before, we owe it to the legion of loyal Dodger fans to ensure that this club is being operated properly now and will be guided appropriately in the future. This transaction would not accomplish these goals.”

If you’ve read this link, you probably understand why I’m applauding Selig’s decision. If you haven’t read that link, go do so now. I can’t vouch for the accuracy of everything contained within, but it doesn’t have to be 100% correct for the general point to remain – the McCourts have been and are still attempting to actively devalue a Major League franchise for their own personal gain.

I’m sure McCourt will sue, and we’ll get months of legal haggling over the rights of the commissioner’s office versus the rights of a team owner. I’m also pretty sure, however, that this will all end in Frank McCourt losing control of the Los Angeles Dodgers – a team he should have never owned in the first place – and Major League Baseball will be better off with him and his family out of the sport.

The commissioner’s office is notoriously picky about what kinds of people they allow to own Major League Baseball teams. This is why. No owner should be allowed to drag down an entire franchise without recourse, and in this instance, the only way to keep the Dodgers from being further devalued is to eliminate the McCourt family from the decision making process.

Pay them off, throw them out, fight them in court – I don’t really care how it happens. I just want to never have to think about Frank or Jamie McCourt ever again. Kudos to Bud Selig for taking one more step towards ridding us of them once and for all.

News came out about an hour ago that Albert Pujols has a fracture in his left forearm and will miss four to six weeks while recovering. Any time you lose the best player in baseball, it’s a pretty big blow, but given the short timeframe and the Cardinals options, this shouldn’t end up affecting the standings too much.

The obvious answer for St. Louis is to shift Lance Berkman back to first base during Pujols’ absence. While Berkman has been a revelation offensively, he’s been as lousy as expected in the outfield, posting a -4.8 UZR in just 463 innings out there. Historically, he’s been an average to above-average defensive first baseman, and it might be nice for the 35-year-old to get a rest from chasing down balls in the outfield for a while anyway.

Moving Berkman to first base opens up right field for Jon Jay, who has been producing enough to get a larger role on the team anyway. Jay is hitting .313/.364/.436 in limited duty, and while UZR hasn’t liked his glove so far, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be at least a small upgrade over Berkman in right field.

The drop-off from Pujols to Jay in the line-up (and from Jay to whomever replaces him as the team’s fourth outfielder until Allen Craig gets healthy) is still significant (probably about half a win per month), but over just one month’s worth of games, the difference shouldn’t be so large as to really swing the NL Central race one way or another. Every game in the standings is precious to the Cardinals in their bid to hold off the Brewers and Reds for the NL Central title, but a going from Pujols to Jay for 100 or 150 at-bats won’t be the end of the world, especially with the benefit of getting Berkman back to first base for a little while.

If Pujols ends up missing two months and Jay is unable to sustain his BABIP-fueled batting line, this could cost the Cardinals a full win. That’s certainly a loss, but it’s one they are equipped to deal with.

This morning, Eric wrote-up a list of surprising offensive heros, and at the head of the pack was Shane Victorino. The Phillies center fielder has picked up the slack for the disabled Chase Utley and struggling Jimmy Rollins, giving Philadelphia a dynamic top-of-the-order hitter, even though it’s not the same one they’re accustomed to having. And, certainly, it qualifies as a surprise that Victorino has been the best hitter on a team with Ryan Howard; the Phillies first baseman might be overrated, but he’s still a good hitter, and he has outhit Victorino by a good margin for most of their careers.

But in looking at the two side by side, it’s interesting to note that Victorino has probably had a better career with the Phillies than Howard up to this point. In fact, the data suggests that not only has Victorino kept up with his more famous teammate, he’s been the better player for quite some time now.

Let’s start with the career numbers. Victorino was grabbed by the Phillies in the 2004 Rule 5 draft, but at the end of spring training he was offered back to the Dodgers for $25,000. LA decided to keep the cash (whoops!), so the Phillies sent Victorino to Triple-A for the season. He hit well enough to earn a roster spot in 2006, and he’s been a regular in Philadelphia’s lineup ever since. Two-thousand-and-six was also the year that Howard, after getting part-time play in 2004 and 2005, became a full-time regular- so we’ll start our comparison there.

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