I know, I know, they just won the World Series, how could they rate behind ten other organizations? Remember, though, that this is a forward looking exercise, and we’re not doling out credit for what happened in the past. The question posed was how well do the Giants stack up going forward.

Present Talent – 82.27 (10th)

Giants Season Preview

Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Giants Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 83.18 (10th)
Baseball Operations – 77.73 (19th)

Overall Rating – 80.32 (11th)

The fact that the Giants will be handing out World Series rings on Opening Day is the big elephant in the room here, so let’s just get that out of the way. The Giants played well in October, and certainly deserved to win the World Series. You could even argue that they were the best team in baseball last year – they did, after all, have the highest team WAR in baseball, so perhaps they never should have been considered underdogs to begin with. Read the rest of this entry »

Last night word leaked out that the Dodgers had reached a contract extension with Chad Billingsley, with the reported figures putting the deal somewhere in the range of $35 to $36 million for three years, with the contract not kicking in until next winter – he will still earn the $6.3 million salary in 2011 that was already agreed upon. The deal covers his final arbitration year and the first two years of free agency at an average rate of around $12 million per season.

Given what other pitchers with similar service time have been signing for of late, however, it looks to me that Billingsley may have left a lot of money on the table in order to sign this deal. While he might not have the reputation as one of the premier pitchers in the game, his arbiter-friendly numbers stack up well against some bigger name pitchers. In 4+ seasons, he’s thrown 826 innings, posted 59 wins, and has a 3.55 ERA.

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Last year, I wrote a post titled “Predictions That Will Be Wrong”. Given the volatility of events that can happen over a six month period, trying to pick things like MVP winners or WAR leaders is essentially a fool’s errand – there’s just no way to know who is going to stay healthy or who has put in the requisite amount of work this winter to take an unexpected step forward. By their nature, predictions are essentially just guesses, and even educated guesses are generally incorrect.

While some have noted that I “called” Josh Hamilton as last year’s MVP winner, I also “called” James Shields as the AL Cy Young winner. If I’m a genius for the first, I’m an idiot for the latter. I don’t think I’m a genius and I hope I’m not an idiot, so perhaps the best conclusion is that sometimes guesses turn out and sometimes they don’t. Either way, they’re still kind of fun, right?

So, let’s do it again. My 2011 Predictions That Will Be Wrong.

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Yesterday, the Rangers announced that Neftali Feliz would serve as their closer again in 2011. As is the case when almost any talented young pitcher is shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, the reaction from the stathead community was fairly loud and mostly negative. After all, the superior value of a starting pitcher is a pillar of sabermetric orthodoxy, and using a guy who could start in relief is almost universally viewed as a waste of potential. In general, I agree with this principle. In this specific instance, though, I don’t think there’s really much to be upset about, as I don’t think there’s a significant gap in expected value from Feliz in 2011 regardless of what role they chose to use him in.

Let’s start with the main point of contention – the quantity of innings that Feliz will throw as closer compared to the amount he could have thrown as a starter. Last year, Feliz tossed 69 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, and only a few closers managed higher totals. In most years, even the healthiest ninth inning specialists will only manage about 70 innings per season. If the Rangers use him aggressively and are in a lot of close games, he could push towards 80 innings, but that’s probably the ceiling and shouldn’t be the expected result.

As a starter (assuming he stayed healthy), he’d throw a lot more than 80 innings. The question, though, is how many more? Feliz’s career high in innings pitched in a season is 125 1/3, back in 2008 when he split the season between A-ball and Double-A. He faced 509 batters that season, or about 60 percent of what a full-time Major League starter would face over the course of a season. He’s since faced even fewer batters in the subsequent two seasons, and realistically, it would be unwise of the Rangers to ask a 22-year-old to make a substantial leap in workload this year. Even as a starter, they couldn’t have asked him to make 30+ starts and then still be able to take the ball in October, had they achieved their goals and made the playoffs again. At that point, they’d be doubling his career high workload, and getting close to tripling what he did in 2010.

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A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Yes, it’s a cliché, but statements often become clichés because they are grounded in truth. In the case of Oakland’s chain, the good things going in the organization only serve to cancel out the big glaring flaw – they just don’t have the kind of capital necessary to keep up with the big boys.

Present Talent: 77.50 (16th)

Athletics Team Preview

Future Talent: 75.00 (t-20th)

Athletics Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources: 69.17 (28th)
Baseball Operations: 85.00 (6th)

Overall Rating: 76.50 (18th)

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When it comes to season-long success, I remain convinced that depth is an underrated asset – every team is going to struggle with injuries or unexpected poor performance, and those that have reliable alternatives in house can limit the damage and keep from being caught off guard. In that sense, I think we have to give the San Francisco Giants quite a bit of credit – they might be the deepest team in baseball.

Andres Torres, Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Mark DeRosa, and Nate Schierholtz give the team five useful outfielders, and that’s before we consider that Brandon Belt’s arrival could push Aubrey Huff into the outfield as well. Belt also serves as insurance at first base, should Huff get injured or fail to hit. Barry Zito is their fifth starter. They have enough power arms to live without Brian Wilson for a few weeks if he’s not ready to go by opening day.

At most positions, the Giants have some insurance, and should be able to plug leaks that spring up during the season. But there’s one spot on the field that they’ve left themselves vulnerable at, and it happens to be a pretty important one.

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In some ways, I feel like I’m rewriting the Astros post, just adjusting for the fact that there’s a bit more talent at the big league level. That might come across too harsh, but it’s hard to find any single area where the Dodgers excel, and the grades below reflect that.

Present Talent – 75.83 (t-18th)

Dodgers Season Preview
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Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Dodgers Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 75.00 (t-20th)
Baseball Operations – 72.50 (28th)

Overall Rating – 74.63 (23rd)

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Over the last three years, 87 starting pitchers have accumulated at least 400 innings pitched, or an average of just under three per team. Due to injuries and poor performance, most teams end up using their last two rotation spots as a never-ending wheel of fill-ins, which is one reason why pitchers with decent track records of success often get large amounts of money in free agency. In fact, even the guys at the bottom of this list in terms of results keep getting opportunities, since they have a track record that organizations can point to.

However, one of the guys on this list – a guy with a good track record, who is pretty much square in the middle of the results no matter what metric you use – just his lost job this week. And it’s somewhat shocking to me that no one has swooped in to make him a part of their rotation yet.

This guy ranks 56th in ERA among starters (again, 400 IP minimum) since 2008, one spot ahead of Josh Beckett. He ranks 41st in FIP, one spot ahead of Gavin Floyd. He ranks 48th in xFIP, just ahead of Paul Maholm. Yet, despite being peers with some pretty well regarded pitchers, Kevin Slowey has found himself slotted in as the Twins long reliever, if they can’t find anyone to trade for him.

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