We handed out some praise this afternoon, but now, we turn our attention to those moves that were somewhat less impressive. The criteria remains the same – we’re looking for transactions that significantly weakened a franchises ability to contend, or moves that simply just don’t appear to make much sense.
Now, for the presentations, let’s go to the podium.
With Spring Training officially open, we can just about close the book on the 2010-2011 off-season. Sure, there are still guys like Kevin Millwood, Nick Johnson, and Jeremy Bonderman on the market, but most free agents have found homes and the trading season has just about passed. So, before we turn our attention forward to the thrill of weigh-ins and stretching, let’s take a look back and hand out some hardware for the best moves of the winter – we’ll deal with the worst deals in a few hours.
In order to evaluate the moves, I’ve attempted to look at the potential impact each transaction could make on their organization. I’m a big fan of the Jeff Francis signing for the Royals, but he’s unlikely to significantly alter the AL Central race this year, and as a guy who signed a one year deal, his impact on future seasons won’t be determined until next off-season. Priority was given to moves that impact a pennant race or a team’s future chances of contending, or at least had a significant impact on the market.
Without further ado, let’s go to the awards.
We’re happy to announce a pair of FanGraphs Live events during our trip to the Cactus League next month. Both should be a lot of fun.
FanGraphs Live At Goodyear Ballpark – Friday, March 11th, 10:30 a.m.
Get your nose out of that spreadsheet and watch a game… with a bunch of other people who also like spreadsheets.
On Friday, March 11th, the FanGraphs staff will descend on beautiful Goodyear Ballpark to watch a game between the Cleveland Indians and the Seattle Mariners. Prior to the game, we will be hosting a Q&A with several notable members of the Cleveland Indians baseball operations staff, and then our team of writers will be hanging out in a group area for the rest of the day to watch the game. Included in your admission to this event:
* Pre-Game Q&A with members of the Cleveland Indians front office
* Early admission to the park before the gates open to the public.
* Unlimited ballpark food and non-alcoholic beverages
* Approximately 4 1/2 hours of time hanging out with more than 15 members of the FanGraphs and RotoGraphs staff.
* A highly competitive baseball game between two titans of the American League. Or, at least, nine innings of baseball.
FanGraphs Live In Phoenix – Saturday, March 12th, 6:30 p.m.
Don’t want to watch a baseball game and eat unlimited amounts of food, but still want to hang out with the FanGraphs crowd? We can do that too. On Saturday, March 12th, from 6:30 to 9:30 pm, we will be hosting panel discussions with members of the FanGraphs and RotoGraphs staff, as well as several notable executives from various Major League front offices. They’ll talk about how statistical analysis plays a role in their decision making with their respective clubs, we’ll talk about how awesome heat maps are, and the RotoGraphs guys will talk ADP and other fantasy related topics.
The room we’ve rented for the event is slightly larger than a starter home, so space is somewhat limited. This will likely be a more intimate affair, as much as a collection of baseball statgeeks getting together on a Saturday evening can be considered intimate. Admission to this event will include:
* A chair
* A chance to ask questions of some pretty interesting people
* The right to awkwardly hang around after the event ends and see if the group ends up going to any drinking establishments nearby.
The ballpark event is $40 (which includes a ticket to the game and unlimited food and non-alcoholic beverage), while the no-game, no-food party is $20. You can really get your nerd on and attend both by purchasing the FanGraphs Weekend ticket for $50, which is of course highly recommended. Both events will feature guests from Major League front offices and copious amounts of FanGraphs staff members.
We look forward to seeing you all in Arizona.
Yesterday, Orioles General Manager Andy MacPhail spoke to some students at the Baltimore School of Law, and among other things, he said this:
Alex Rodriguez to Texas was the worst signing in the history of baseball in my view,” MacPhail said, according to The Baltimore Sun. “Why? Because he played as well as you can possibly ask the kid to play. He had great years. And the needle didn’t move at all. … The team didn’t improve. Attendance didn’t go up. But hey, they got the lead story on ESPN. Well, if that’s what motivates you, you’re going down the wrong path. You want to put 35,000 people in the ballpark, win the games. That’s what (fans) are there to see. That’s what the Orioles need—to win some games.”
MacPhail is right on with one thing – Rodriguez did indeed play as well you can possibly ask anyone to play. His productivity gets lost in the narrative, but take a look at what Rodriguez did for Texas after signing The Contract That Changed Everything.
Joe Christensen dropped a minor bombshell on Minneapolis this morning, writing that the Twins may be open to trading Francisco Liriano at some point during spring training. According to Christensen, the Twins were put off by his asking price when the possibility of a long term deal was broached, and now they don’t expect to keep the pitcher beyond 2012. With depth in the rotation and a decent argument to be made that moving Liriano now would be the definition of selling high, there is some logic to exploring what their ace would command in return.
Three other starting pitchers in a similar position have already been traded this winter – Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, and Shaun Marcum. Greinke and Marcum were in identical positions, as they’ll be eligible for free agency at the end of the 2012 season. Garza has an extra year of team control, but because he was a super-two and became arbitration eligible last year, his prices are rising faster than the others and that final year will be rather expensive, limiting its value and making Garza more like the others.
Michael Young does not want to play for the Texas Rangers anymore – he made that clear with his public assailing of their front office last night, and essentially changed the incentives for Jon Daniels to move him. Now, instead of creating some long term financial flexibility, the Rangers are also motivated to move him to avoid the circus that would ensue if Young reported to spring training with the team. While the Rangers have said publicly that they’ll only move him in a deal that makes sense for their club, Young changed the calculus, and the bar for an acceptable deal has to be lower now than it was a few days ago.
The Rangers, however, aren’t really in a position where they should be dumping talent just to free up future payroll. They’re the favorites in the AL West and need to be re-enforcing the strength of their roster, not dropping useful (even if overpaid) players for nothing in return. So, while most of the rumors to date have focused on shipping Young to Colorado, I think there’s a deal that makes more sense for the Rangers.
After my initial post on Matt Cain’s HR/FB rate last week, Rory Paap responded with his own thoughts at his blog. We ended up trading emails about the subject, and the result was 3,000 words and the observation that inspired my post this afternoon. We figured you guys might also be interested in the rest of the discussion as well, so I’m posting the relevant parts here.
DC: What is Cain doing to cause his low HR/FB rate? Location, movement or something else?
RP: The honest answer here is: I have no idea. I suspect it has something to do with his fastball, being that’s the pitch he leans heavily on, but I’m not sure. It seems intuitive, to me at least, that the way his fastball moves could be a factor. Perhaps it’s the fact that it sinks less than as expected, as Dave has hypothesized. I also think there’s a strong possibility he’s very good at placing a high fastball where he wants to in the strike zone. I think if anyone knew for sure what he was doing specifically, we’d probably not be having this discussion.
Last week, when I suggested that history showed that pitchers with low HR/FB rates, even over long stretches of time, weren’t able to sustain those marks going forward, one of the more popular responses was that Cain is simply unique. There are theories about his fastball movement, his location, or simply a decision on his part to trade fewer home runs for more walks by not leaving pitches over the heart of the plate, even in hitter’s counts. The more I look into this, though, the less it seems likely that Cain’s low HR/FB rate is something unique to him, and more likely that it’s something unique to the organization for which he plays.
Since 2002, Cain does have the lowest HR/FB ratio of any starting pitcher with at least 500 innings pitched in the big leagues. Fourth on that list? Tim Lincecum. Ninth? Jason Schmidt. 17th? Noah Lowry. 22nd? Barry Zito. Russ Ortiz is 37th and Kirk Rueter is 39th, which means that seven of the top 39 pitchers on the list have thrown a significant amount of innings during that time frame for San Francisco.
We’re a couple of weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, and by now, most free agents have figured out where they’ll be going during spring training. Some may be rolling up in more expensive clothes than they had last year, thanks to a shiny new contract they signed this winter. Today, though, I’m more interested in the guys who will be recycling last year’s digs – the ones who come to camp with non-guaranteed contracts and will spend March fighting for a job on a big league roster. Let’s take a look at what kind of team could have been assembled this winter without handing out a single Major League contract. Essentially, these guys are the NRI All-Stars.
