“The more I look at 2011 projections, the more Victor Martinez looks like he might be due for a crash, in which case he’d be a remarkably overpaid DH. ”
David Ortiz wOBA projections – .380 347 .367(James, Marcell, Fans)
Victor Martinez wOBA projections – .369 .347 .359
David Ortiz salary – 12.5 million
Victor Martinez salary – 12 million
Victor Martinez will also catch 50+ games a year and give Cabrera a breather a dozen or so games too which adds roster flexibility because you don’t need to carry a backup catcher now. So between the 3 projections Ortiz is only projected to have .006 higher wOBA but is due to make half a million more a year than Martinez and doesn’t add the flexibility Martinez does. I think the fact that Martinez brings that to the table offsets the slight offensive boost from Ortiz.
Granted I know Martinez’s contract is 3 years longer and he will definitely be really overpaid the last year or 2 of it but I don’t see how you can single him out for just next year when just off the top of my head I found a guy in David Ortiz that I think will be more overpaid than Victor if you just go by the projections.
Where did I say that it’s a good deal because I can’t find it? In fact I actually made a point that he was going to be overpaid the last couple years of it. I was just pointing out that I don’t see how you could single him out, Dave makes it sound like the projections have him falling off a cliff this season(“The more I look at 2011 projections, the more Victor Martinez looks like he might be due for a crash”) but the projections that I’ve seen for him average out to just a .004 drop in wOBA from last year, which is nothing. Not to mention those were probably made with the expectations that he will be catching full time when in reality he will only do it probably a 1/3 or a 1/4 of the time so those numbers may go up since he won’t have the wear and tear of catching throughout the whole season. The only reason I brought up Ortiz was because he was the first player that came to mind since Dave brought up being a high priced DH.
Oh and for the record I’m not necessarily saying he isn’t going to crash because you never know with a 31 or 32 year old catcher moving to a tougher ball park but according to the projections that I’ve seen they don’t really indicate it.
Steve Braucksieker
15 years ago
I have had an exhausted discussion today regarding WAR and its lack of appreciation for games played. The back and forth can be found on Hardball Talk. (Under the Michael Young Posting) I contend that a player receives no additional value for playing 150+ games vs someone who plays only 100. This is in regard to the value to a team and not as an evaluation of talent, which I discussed. If an oft injured player forces a team to play a grossly inferior sub, shouldn’t that be factored into his WAR as it relates to his team value? To really evaluate his value to a team shouldn’t he be penalized by including his replacements stats. I understand that WAR primarily addresses a players value in relation to a replacement and the metrics used to measure that comparison. But couldn’t an additional stat, one that would certainly carry a good deal of import for a team be developed that included the number of innings played and its impact on a team?
Look at Jim Thome and Miguel Cabrera, for instance. Thome had a .437 wOBA compared to Cabrera’s .429 mark, so on a per at-bat basis, Thome was actually a better hitter. They get the same defensive penalty, as Thome is a DH and Cabrera is a bad fielding first baseman. Cabrera ended the season with +6.2 WAR while Thome only accumulated +3.6 WAR because Cabrera racked up an extra 300 plate appearances.
“There is basically no relationship. Fans come when the team wins, not because they want to see anyone player.”
-Unless you are Barry Bonds.
Or Strasburg.
or Felix.
Or Juan Castro.
“The more I look at 2011 projections, the more Victor Martinez looks like he might be due for a crash, in which case he’d be a remarkably overpaid DH. ”
David Ortiz wOBA projections – .380 347 .367(James, Marcell, Fans)
Victor Martinez wOBA projections – .369 .347 .359
David Ortiz salary – 12.5 million
Victor Martinez salary – 12 million
Victor Martinez will also catch 50+ games a year and give Cabrera a breather a dozen or so games too which adds roster flexibility because you don’t need to carry a backup catcher now. So between the 3 projections Ortiz is only projected to have .006 higher wOBA but is due to make half a million more a year than Martinez and doesn’t add the flexibility Martinez does. I think the fact that Martinez brings that to the table offsets the slight offensive boost from Ortiz.
Granted I know Martinez’s contract is 3 years longer and he will definitely be really overpaid the last year or 2 of it but I don’t see how you can single him out for just next year when just off the top of my head I found a guy in David Ortiz that I think will be more overpaid than Victor if you just go by the projections.
Arguing that your guy is a good deal because he’s less overpaid than David Ortiz?
I’ve seen stronger cases made, even before we start looking at the extra 3 years of commitment which you mention.
Where did I say that it’s a good deal because I can’t find it? In fact I actually made a point that he was going to be overpaid the last couple years of it. I was just pointing out that I don’t see how you could single him out, Dave makes it sound like the projections have him falling off a cliff this season(“The more I look at 2011 projections, the more Victor Martinez looks like he might be due for a crash”) but the projections that I’ve seen for him average out to just a .004 drop in wOBA from last year, which is nothing. Not to mention those were probably made with the expectations that he will be catching full time when in reality he will only do it probably a 1/3 or a 1/4 of the time so those numbers may go up since he won’t have the wear and tear of catching throughout the whole season. The only reason I brought up Ortiz was because he was the first player that came to mind since Dave brought up being a high priced DH.
Oh and for the record I’m not necessarily saying he isn’t going to crash because you never know with a 31 or 32 year old catcher moving to a tougher ball park but according to the projections that I’ve seen they don’t really indicate it.
I have had an exhausted discussion today regarding WAR and its lack of appreciation for games played. The back and forth can be found on Hardball Talk. (Under the Michael Young Posting) I contend that a player receives no additional value for playing 150+ games vs someone who plays only 100. This is in regard to the value to a team and not as an evaluation of talent, which I discussed. If an oft injured player forces a team to play a grossly inferior sub, shouldn’t that be factored into his WAR as it relates to his team value? To really evaluate his value to a team shouldn’t he be penalized by including his replacements stats. I understand that WAR primarily addresses a players value in relation to a replacement and the metrics used to measure that comparison. But couldn’t an additional stat, one that would certainly carry a good deal of import for a team be developed that included the number of innings played and its impact on a team?
This is exactly what WAR does.
Look at Jim Thome and Miguel Cabrera, for instance. Thome had a .437 wOBA compared to Cabrera’s .429 mark, so on a per at-bat basis, Thome was actually a better hitter. They get the same defensive penalty, as Thome is a DH and Cabrera is a bad fielding first baseman. Cabrera ended the season with +6.2 WAR while Thome only accumulated +3.6 WAR because Cabrera racked up an extra 300 plate appearances.
Playing time is a major component of WAR.
You really did use a lot of words to prove that you don’t understand the calculations behind WAR and what it means.