The San Diego Padres have reportedly signed Chad Qualls to a one-year contract for about two million dollars in an effort to restore some of the bullpen depth they’ve traded away this winter. In signing Qualls, they are making a pretty big bet against the predictive power of ERA, considering he posted an atrocious 7.32 mark last year.

However, the Padres understand how to build a bullpen on the cheap, and they also realize that ERA is a pretty lousy way to evaluate relief pitchers. To illustrate the point, let’s compare Qualls’ season to that of another free agent, Kevin Millwood.

Qualls had the following miserable line last year: 59 innings, 85 hits, 56 runs, seven home runs, 21 walks, 49 strikeouts. That’s just not good, no matter how you slice it.

Millwood had the following miserable line last year: 51 innings, 86 hits, 54 runs, 11 home runs, 25 walks, 36 strikeouts. That’s even worse than Qualls’ performance.

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News Item #1 – AL East team with strong sabermetric leanings signs free-agent reliever. His peripherals are better than his ERA, and he’s considered to have some personality baggage. Reliever gets $12 million over two years – reaction is mostly positive.

News Item #2 – AL East team with strong sabermetric leanings signs free-agent reliever. His peripherals are better than his ERA, and he’s considered to have some pesonality baggage. Reliever gets $3.5 million for one year – reaction is abject mocking.

As you may have figured out by now, News Item #1 refers to the Boston Red Sox’ signing of Bobby Jenks, which took place a month ago, while News Item #2 refers to the Tampa Bay Rays’ signing of Kyle Farnsworth, which broke today. I find the differences in response to these deals somewhat amusing.

Here are the numbers for Farnsworth and Jenks over the last two seasons.

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Last year, as spring training began to ramp up, we got the annual collection of articles about players reporting to camp in “the best shape of their lives”. While it’s a phrase so overused that it is easy to mock, I figured it would be worthwhile to catalog the players who were noted to have worked hard over the off-season, giving us the chance to look back and see if we can spot any performance differences from guys in the group. Thus, “The Good Shapers” post was born. Today, we fulfill the second half of the purpose, and look back at whether these guys actually performed better than expected.

We’re going to start with the hitters today, since evaluating their results is pretty straight forward. There are fewer environmental factors to consider, and we can essentially look at their pre-season projections and their final batting line without worrying about too many biases or noise in the data. For this task, we’re using the 2010 Marcel projections. On to the results.

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I already wrote earlier about my thoughts on Matt Garza, and Joe covered the Cubs’ end of this deal, but let’s tackle how this trade affects the Rays for 2011. I’ll leave the prospect analysis of Archer, Lee, and Guyer to Marc, and just say that they’re generally considered to be some of the better players in the Cubs system. All three will likely spend a good chunk of 2011 in the minors, however, so we’ll set them aside for now.

For the upcoming Rays season, this deal essentially amounts to a swap of Garza for Robinson Chirinos and approximately $6 million in cash – the money they would have otherwise had to pay Garza through arbitration. In name value, it’s a big step backwards, and will likely be viewed as just a cost-saving move by the general public. In reality, though, there’s a good chance that the Rays will be better next year by trading Garza away.

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If there’s one rumor that just won’t die this winter, it’s the Cubs potentially trading for Matt Garza. He is quickly becoming their white whale, or, if we want to bring it back to baseball, Jim Hendry’s version of Erubiel Durazo. Despite having a pretty full rotation, the Cubs are clearly enamored with what Garza brings to the table, to the point that they’re willing to make a brutal deal to acquire him. But I’d like to suggest that if they really wanted a pitcher with this skillset, they could have just signed Aaron Harang as a free agent this winter and gotten the same thing.

Over the last three seasons, here are their respective lines:

Garza: 3.05 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.09 HR/9, 38.9% GB%, 4.39 xFIP
Harang: 2.57 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.47 HR/9, 35.1% GB%, 4.21 xFIP

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Roberto Alomar is going to Cooperstown. Barry Larkin is not. I don’t get it.

They are the very definition of contemporaries. Larkin began his career two years earlier, but they both retired at the end of the 2004 season, having their careers almost entirely overlap. They are both middle infielders with essentially the same exact skillset. Their career lines are practically identical. Seriously.

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It has long been assumed that Adrian Beltre was going to cash in on his big year in Boston and head back to the AL West, though most speculation had him landing in Anaheim. The guesses proved partially true – right division, wrong team. While it is not yet official, it appears that Beltre will be competing directly against the Angels as the new starting third baseman for the Texas Rangers, signing a five- or six-year contract for around $15 million per season.

In a piece for ESPN three weeks ago, I suggested the Rangers make exactly this move, so it’s not surprising that I think this is a pretty good move for Texas. However, Beltre’s a pretty polarizing player, and you will surely read a good number of skeptics listing off reasons as to why the Rangers are crazy to give him this kind of long-term deal. I figure that it might be worthwhile to confront the most common criticism of his value ahead of time, so let’s tackle the most frequently repeated complaint about Beltre.

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With the off-season winding down and a need at first base, the Orioles targeted Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche as the best options remaining in free agency. They ended up signing Lee because he was willing to accept a one year deal, while LaRoche was holding out for a multi-year contract. His demands are reportedly going to be met, as he’s rumored to be nearing a two-year deal to sign with the Washington Nationals.

The shakeout seems a little bit backward to me. LaRoche is an inferior player to Lee in just about every way, and yet he’s the one getting the multi-year contract. Let’s compare their skills, shall we?

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