After a couple of years of relatively cautious spending, Major League teams are opening their wallets again this winter. If you count the Troy Tulowitzki contract extension, we’ve seen three deals struck that guarantee over $100 million in future commitments, and Cliff Lee hasn’t even signed yet. The last time we saw this kind of aggressive spending in the market was 2006, when four teams spent in excess of $100 million to acquire new talent. Unfortunately for those with money this winter, that winter also serves as a reminder for why throwing your cash around can be a bad idea.

The four players who cost their teams $100+ million that winter? Alfonso Soriano (8 years, $136 million), Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million), Carlos Lee (6 years, $100 million), and Daisuke Matsuzaka (6 years, $52 million, plus a $51 million posting fee). None of those players have come close to providing a return on their investment, and are all essentially untradeable at this point.

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I’m pretty whipped after four tiring days in Orlando, so today’s post isn’t going to be a complete argument as much as it is an interesting tidbit to digest. Using the ridiculously awesome new mutli-year capabilities of the leaderboards, I decided to filter my personal dashboard for position players to show the 2006-2010 years, giving us the best players in the game over the last five years. This is what it looks like (click to expand).

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Despite acquiring Adrian Gonzalez on Sunday, the Boston Red Sox have taken a back seat to the Yankees down here in Orlando. With Derek Jeter re-signing and holding an angry press conference, as well as their open pursuit of Cliff Lee, the meetings have centered around New York’s activity. Not anymore- with Carl Crawford in the fold, the Red Sox have stolen the show.

In general, reaction to the deal among people I talked to in Orlando was mostly negative, as $142 million for Carl Crawford is a big number. As a guy who gets a lot of value from his speed and defense, he isn’t the type of player to land a contract of this size. As Ken Rosenthal mentioned on Twitter, this is $50 million more than the next highest contract in baseball history for a guy who had never hit 20 or more home runs in a season- Ichiro’s previous record of $90 million for five years just got blown out of the water.

Just because it is unique, however, doesn’t mean it is automatically bad. Read the rest of this entry »

After an extended dance, the move everyone expected – Paul Konerko returning to Chicago – apparently is going to happen. Bob Nightengale has reported that the White Sox have given Konerko a three year deal for $12.5 million per year. Given how nutty this market is and the White Sox determination to retain the man who has held down first base for them since 1999, this was the price they had to pay. But it is hard to ignore the fact that the White Sox just bought Konerko’s age 35-37 seasons, and while he was tremendous last year, he does not have a history of sustained excellence.

Here’s Konerko’s career wOBA, year by year:

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When people talk about organizations being built “the right way”, they are usually referring to developing a crop of homegrown players through the farm system by scouting and drafting well, building a core of internally produced stars that can win together. The Rays, Twins, and Rangers are all examples of teams that have followed this model, putting winning teams on the field comprised of players that they brought up through the minors, or picked up young players who they then nurtured into being better than they were at the time of acquisition.

None of this happens all that quickly. It takes years to develop a strong farm system, and it is generally accepted that teams need to accept a few losing years in order to accumulate assets for later winning. Often times, organizations who adopt this develop-from-within model take their lumps for a couple of years while attempting to ramp up prospect collection, trading away established veterans and taking risks on guys who contenders might shy away from. They lose at the big league level, but the understanding is that they are investing their future and the payoff will be worth the lean years while the team is rebuilding. Many organizations who adopt this approach are lauded for their strategies – it is “the right way”, after all.

However, if teams pursue the strategy in reverse, where they risk contention down the line in exchange for wins in the present, it carries the connotation of mortgaging the future. Read the rest of this entry »

In talking to people down here in Orlando, there’s palpable shock over how the market is developing this winter. The Jayson Werth deal looms over everything, but even the guys expected to settle for smaller deals are coming away with surprising quantities of years and dollars. That trend continued this morning when the Rockies gave Ty Wigginton a two year, $7.5 million contract to do… I’m not sure what, exactly.

It’s not that Wigginton is useless – he’s got some decent power and even draws walks against LHPs, so he can have some value as the lesser half of a DH platoon. Unfortunately, the Rockies play in the league that doesn’t use the DH, and they just acquired a better version of this exact same player last week when they traded for Jose Lopez.

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A segway would be awesome right about now.

I don’t want to say that the food prices here are expensive, but for the cost of lunch, I could have had three years of Jayson Werth.

The next dispatch will contain actual baseball information. Also, look for a Winter Meetings podcast with JoePawl and myself later on tonight. I may try to sneak in a live chat as well.