When you think of why the Phillies are a good baseball team, there are some obvious reasons – Chase Utley is one of the best players in the game, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are top-notch LHPs, and Ryan Howard can hit a baseball a very long way. However, there are also some less notable reasons why the Phillies have succeeded this year, including a pretty remarkable ability to stay out of the double play.

The Phillies hit into 90 double plays this year, fewest of any team in baseball. In fact, no team has hit into fewer than 90 double plays in a full season since 1992, when the Braves hit into just 82 twin-killings. Philadelphia hit into 41 fewer DPs than the Dodgers, or basically one fewer every four games.

What’s even more amazing, however, is that the Phillies avoided double plays while also putting a lot of men on base. In general, the best way to avoid making two outs on one play is to have a bad offense that rarely gets anyone on, but Philadelphia racked up the baserunners this year and still managed to avoid the 6-4-3 with regularity.

While there’s no single cause for double play avoidance, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that the Phillies have been able to pull this off, given the types of players they employ. They have a roster full of guys who run well and prefer to hit the ball in the air. As a team, they had a GB% of just 40.4%, fourth lowest in the game.

Forty-seven percent of Chase Utley’s balls in play were flyballs – it’s really hard to turn two on a guy who uppercuts the ball and can run well when he does hit it on the ground. Those are the two main reasons Utley hit into only five double plays all season. That total was matched by Shane Victorino, and they were two of only six players in baseball with 600+ PA to hit into five or fewer double plays on the season.

It’s a little thing, but it’s one of those little things that can add up over the course of a season, and can play a big role in a short series like the NLCS. If the Dodgers find themselves having to pitch out of a jam, they better go for the strikeout, because they’re probably not going to get the rally-killing double play to bail them out. Not against this Phillies team.

Joe Torre almost certainly looked at a lot of different factors when determining his playoff rotation for the NLCS. However, after naming Vicente Padilla his #2 starter against the Phillies, I’m left to guess that he did not bother to look at platoon splits when making his decisions.

Padilla has pitched better than anyone could have expected since joining the Dodgers, running a 3.40 FIP in seven starts, then shutting out the Cardinals in the first round. However, Padilla has a long track record of having significant problems against left-handed batters. Below are his platoon splits this year and for his career.

2009:

Vs RHB: .246/.301/.363, 2.35 K/BB
Vs LHB: .303/.384/.453, 1.54 K/BB

Career:

Vs RHB: .241/.300/.368, 3.03 K/BB
Vs LHB: .297/.380/.479, 1.30 K/BB

In his major league career, he’s faced more than 3,000 batters from each side of the plate. He’s owned right-handed hitters and been owned by left-handed ones. This shouldn’t really be any surprise, given his arm slot and the amount of fastballs he throws from that angle. Righties have a hard time picking the ball up out of his hand, but lefties get a really nice view early on in the delivery.

This isn’t some small sample fluke. Padilla will always struggle against LHBs with his repertoire. And, wouldn’t you know, the Phillies have some pretty good left-handed hitters. Between Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez, Padilla’s going to be staring down one of the best collections of left-handed bats in the game.

I understand the desire to play the hot hand, and Padilla is throwing better in LA than he has in years, but this is still a really bad match-up for him. In this case, Torre’s simply weighting recent performance far too heavily. Pitching well or not, he’s still penciling in Vicente Padilla for two starts in the NLCS, and that’s not a good decision.

When people talk about this group of upcoming free agents, they generally comment on the lack of high end talent available. With all due respect to Matt Holliday and John Lackey, they’re a clear step back from the likes of Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran types that have populated the market in recent years. The general consensus is correct – this group is not very impressive at the top end.

But let’s accept this free agent class for what it is – full of interesting players with a real chance to outplay the contracts they receive. Most years, free agency is akin to shopping at Pottery Barn, where you’re paying full price for marketing, store overhead, and the comfort of a familiar brand. This year, it’s more like buying scratch-and-dent furniture from Ebay.

Let’s be honest – you get a better deal on Ebay than Pottery Barn. Sure, you have to accept some risk that what you see in the picture bears some resemblance to what you’re going to get, and the chances of getting nothing for your money is a bit higher, but those factors help drive down price as well. And when you actually get what you were hoping for at an Ebay price, you come out with a really good deal.

That’s this free agent class. Rich Harden can be one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s on the mound and throwing strikes, but his long injury history is going to limit him to a short term deal. He’s far from the only talented starting pitcher with injury concerns – Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Kelvim Escobar, John Smoltz, Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, and Randy Johnson are all probably looking at one year deals at rates that will be a fraction of what they would get if they were coming off healthy seasons.

It isn’t just pitchers, either. There are several position players who will almost certainly sign for less than we’ll project them to be worth. Even with teams appreciating defensive value more, it has been so undervalued that we can’t expect a full correction yet. Thus, players who derive a significant chunk of their value from their play on the field will still likely be relative bargains. That’s Placido Polanco, Adrian Beltre, Adam Everett, Mike Cameron, and Randy Winn.

Defense hasn’t been the only thing that’s been going for a discount of late, either. Older players near the tail end of their career have been increasingly sent into forced retirement, as teams have moved towards younger players at a rate where they’ve probably over-corrected. Players like Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Carlos Delgado will probably find themselves in line for massive pay cuts, as they’re reaching the end of their usefulness as major league players. But they’re not there yet, and a team that can scoop up any of them on a one year deal could get a quality hitter without a long term commitment.

It’s a winter for bargain shopping. Maybe that’s not what the Yankees and Red Sox are into, but for the rest of baseball, this should actually be a nice change of pace.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the much-maligned free agent pitching crop is about to get a lot stronger, with Tim Hudson set to join the ranks of those available for bidding this winter. The Braves and Hudson hold a mutual $12 million option on his 2010 contract, but with a strong finish to the season and not much competition on the open market, Hudson sees an opportunity to get a better deal now rather than waiting a year.

Is it the right call?

In his late season return, he showed absolutely no effects from the injury or layoff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH, the same velocity he’s shown since 2005. He still had tremendous sink on the pitch as well, generating a 62.2% GB%. His command was as good as always, and his strikeout rate was higher than any season since 2001. It may have only been seven starts, but Hudson showed that he’s still every bit as good as he was before the injury, and he was one of the better pitchers in baseball at his peak.

Besides John Lackey, there aren’t any pitchers on the market who can offer a better package of stuff, command, and ability to pitch. Lackey’s going to get a big contract, but Hudson’s a pretty similar pitcher when healthy. For a team who wants to add that level of starter without paying full price, Hudson is a terrific alternative.

For Hudson, opting out is likely the right move. He probably won’t get a $12 million in annual salary again, given his age and the fact that he’s only thrown 180 innings over the last two years, but teams will still be lining up to bid for a pitcher of his quality, and rightfully so. A three or four year deal at around $10 million per season will be a steal if Hudson is able to stay healthy, and that kind of contract is certainly more valuable to him than one more season at $12 million.

If the Braves can’t convince him to stay in Atlanta, this is bad news. For the other 29 teams, however, the free agent pitching market might be about to get a big upgrade.

Jonathan Papelbon: 2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 1 K
Joe Nathan: 2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 2 K
Huston Street: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 1 K
Ryan Franklin: 1 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K

Total: 8 IP, 18 H, 11 R, 8 BB, 5 K

That’s the combined performance of the closers for the four teams who got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs this year. The complete inability for teams to shut the door in the ninth inning was by far the overriding story of the division series match-ups. The Red Sox, Cardinals, and Rockies were all eliminated in games where their closers had a final meltdown on the mound, snatching defeat from the jaws victory.

Of note is that the two teams that entered the playoffs with the most questions surrounding their closers – the Phillies (Brad Lidge) and the Angels (Brian Fuentes) – were able to skate through the first round without any problems, as the supposedly reliable closers (non-Mariano Rivera division) were the ones who ended up having problems.

St. Louis perhaps should have seen this coming – Ryan Franklin isn’t anyone’s definition of a relief ace, and his first performance was about as fluky as it gets. Trusting him with the game on the line isn’t really wisdom, regardless of what his seasonal ERA was. He’s still Ryan Franklin, after all. The other three, however, have been among the best relievers in the game for years.

There was no reason for the Twins to be concerned about Joe Nathan. Papelbon’s command got worse this year, but he was still blowing hitters away. Street posted the best BB/K of his career, and looked to re-establish himself as an elite closer. All three were proven closers. And all three were significant reasons why their teams are sitting at home right now.

Everyone knows this by now, but relief pitchers are just remarkably unreliable. That point was driven home with emphasis in the first round. Don’t pay premiums for the mystical powers of a ninth inning reliever. The guys who have proven they “have it” can implode at the worst possible time, too.

So, that was fairly easy. The mismatch that was the Twins-Yankees series played out much like expected, with the tired and undermanned Minnesota roster just not good enough to play with the best team in baseball. Had Justin Morneau been healthy or end of season schedule been a bit different, perhaps it would not have played out the same way, but given the circumstances, the Yankees essentially got a bye into the ALCS.

Unfortunately for New York, they won’t have the same advantage in their upcoming series. The Angels also made swift work of their opponents, dispatching the Red Sox in three games as well, meaning that both teams will be well rested for Game One of the ALCS on Friday. Let’s take a look at the probable pitching match-ups for the first three games of the series.

Game One, Angels at Yankees, Friday, October 16th

CC Sabathia vs John Lackey

Game Two, Angels at Yankees, Saturday, October 17th

A.J. Burnett vs Jered Weaver

Game Three, Yankees at Angels, Monday, October 19th

Andy Pettitte vs Scott Kazmir

No surprises here. Both teams will throw their top three starters, all of whom will be well rested since their appearances in the division series. The Yankees have the advantage in games one and three, while two is close to a push. New York has the advantage, but it’s not a huge one.

After those three games, though, the match-ups become a question mark, due to the off-day scheduling. There’s an off-day between the fourth and fifth games of the series, so if either team wanted to go with a three man rotation, they could do it while only having to use their #1 starter on short rest. This would line up both Sabathia and Lackey for regular rest starts in Game Seven as well.

Given the questions surrounding both Joe Saunders and Joba Chamberlain, this seems like an easy call. The expected drop-off of pitching on three days rest versus four days rest is almost certainly smaller than the expected drop-off from giving either Saunders or Chamberlain innings that would otherwise go to Sabathia or Lackey. I’d take a short rest Lackey over a full rest Saunders every day of the week, and I have to imagine so will Mike Scioscia.

So, expect both teams to go with just three starters for the ALCS, allowing them to employ larger bullpens and make more late game reliever swaps. If you’re a fan of long baseball games that go deep into the night, this ALCS should be for you – two good hitting clubs with a huge assortment of bullpen options and games that should be relatively competitive. It’s a recipe for 1 AM finishes.

Last night, the Phillies took a 2 to 1 series lead with a 6-5 win over Colorado in the only remaining playoff contest, scoring the winning run in the ninth inning on their way to victory. This was the second straight game to be decided by one run, and overall, the Phillies have only outscored the Rockies by a total of four runs in three games. On the surface, it looks like the two teams have been playing fairly evenly.

However, that is not so. Here are the team’s offensive totals for the first three games of the series:

Philadelphia: .313/.389/.444
Colorado: .255/.296/.388

In essentially an equal number of at-bats, the Phillies have six more hits and seven more walks. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez are all hitting over .400 for the series, while Jayson Werth has supplemented his .300 BA with a .462 OBP and .800 SLG. The Rockies have not been able to get Philadelphia hitters out with any regularity, yet the series is still close.

For Colorado to pull off the upset and win the final two games, they’re going to have to keep the Phillies hitters off the bases. They’ve been fortunate so far in stranding runners, because the Phillies are hitting like a team that should score a lot more than 5 runs per game. Putting guys on base and trying to wiggle out of jams isn’t going to cut it in the next two games – starting with Ubaldo Jimenez tonight, the Rockies have to get some of Philly’s big bats out at the plate.

You’ve all seen the highlight by now. With two out in the ninth inning, James Loney lined a ball right at Matt Holliday. If he catches the ball, the Cardinals tie the series with a 2-1 win in game two. But he didn’t catch the ball. It hit him in the stomach, bounced to the ground, and the comeback was on. A few batters later, the Cardinals lose, and Matt Holliday is the obvious candidate for blame.

But I’d suggest that Cardinal fans go easy on the poor guy. There’s plenty of blame to go around, and Holliday’s not the one most at fault for the loss.

Yes, if Holliday catches the ball, the game is over. But even after the drop, the Cardinals still had an 87% chance of winning the game. Ryan Franklin then took that 87% percent probability and flushed it down the toilet. Walk, single, walk, single, ballgame. Holliday put one guy on base. Franklin put four guys on base. It takes some kind of perverse twisting of the facts to think that Holliday was more responsible for the loss than Franklin.

Or, if we want to look at earlier lost opportunities, how about Brendan Ryan? Three times he came up with a runner on second base, where a base hit would have scored a run that obviously would have been fairly crucial by the ninth inning. He grounded out, struck out, and flyout. No runs would score.

And, let’s not forget that the Cardinals first run of the game came on a home run by Holliday. Had Holliday hit like the rest of his teammates, the Cardinals would never have had a game to lose in the first place.

It’s easy to say that if he would have caught the ball, the team would have won. While true, it also ignores everything that went before and after that play. Matt Holliday didn’t lose the game for the Cardinals – it was a team effort.

Despite a rough first game yesterday, the Rockies have a chance to beat the Phillies. However, if they want to give themselves the best chance to win today, they have to put their best team on the field. And their best team does not include Brad Hawpe today.

Hawpe is not an outfielder. The Rockies keep running him out there because they lack the DH option, but sticking a hammer in the oven doesn’t make it a pie. Hawpe’s UZR totals the last three years – -23.5, -37.2, -20.2. With three seasons of data, Hawpe has ran up a staggering total of -80 runs. He’s an abomination in the field.

His bat makes up for some of the defensive problems against right-handers. Against lefties, though? Not even close. His career mark against southpaws is .242/.321/.429. He strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances against LHPs and his walk rate plummets as well.

The combination of atrocious defense and average-at-best offense makes Hawpe a huge liability against southpaws. Yet, in game one, he was out there costing the Rockies runs despite Cliff Lee starting for Philadelphia. The Phillies throw Cole Hamels today, and if Jim Tracy wants to give his team the best chance at winning, Hawpe should begin the day on the bench waiting for a chance to pinch hit.

They have options. Ryan Spilborghs hits lefties and can play defense. Seth Smith hits everyone and can play defense.

Brad Hawpe is a below replacement level player against lefties. You can’t start those guys in a playoff series. If the Rockies want to maximize their chance of winning, Hawpe should take a seat.

There is little doubt – the New York Yankees are the best team in baseball this year. They won 103 games and it wasn’t a fluke, as their WAR projected win total was 103 as well. They pummeled their opponents for 915 runs, winning with a bludgeoning offense that made up for a mediocre defense and some problems with the pitching staff. As usual, though, the Yankees are built for the playoffs, with three strong starting pitchers, an elite closer, and an offense that can put up 10 runs on any given night. By getting to choose their ALDS schedule, they even get the advantage of only having to use three starters in the first round, putting an even greater percentage of the innings in the hands of their best players.

This would be a hard series for the Twins to win even at full strength. The Yankees are really good.

Game 1, Twins at Yankees, Wednesday, 6:07 PM

Brian Duensing takes the hill against CC Sabathia, and it’s not hyperbole to say that this might be one of the most lopsided pitching match-ups in history. After a slow start, Sabathia has been on a roll of late, and he takes the mound looking to shake the memories of a disastrous post-season a year ago. Minnesota’s best hitters are primarily left-handed, giving Sabathia even more of an edge. Anything can happen, but the Yankees have to be huge favorites tonight. Joe Mauer getting kidnapped is the only break they haven’t caught for game one.

Game 2, Twins at Yankees, Friday, 6:07 pm

The downside of the longer series is that the Twins get a breather after game one, which their bullpen will certainly need. The Yankees face off against Nick Blackburn, a pitch-to-contact strike thrower. That’s a tough skillset to win with against the Yankees in New York. The Yanks counter with A.J. Burnett, in a decision which I find a little puzzling. It’s tough to argue that Burnett is a substantially better pitcher than Andy Pettitte, and the fact that Pettitte’s a lefty makes him the tougher match-up for Minnesota. I would have though that facing the Twins to hit a LH starter in four out of five games would have been to the Yankees advantage, but Girardi disagrees and goes with Burnett in game two.

Game 3, Yankees at Twins, Sunday, TBD

The series shifts back to Minnesota for the first possible elimination game, with New York seeing despised former teammate Carl Pavano. Pavano’s had a better year than his ERA indicates, though he’s been prone to disaster starts as well, and the Yankees have to be hoping for the chance to pile up runs in a hurry. Pettitte takes the hill for his one start in the series, and as usual, gives New York the advantage on the hill.

Game 4, Yankees at Twins, Monday, TBD

Due to the extra game against Detroit, Scott Baker makes his first appearance of the series in game four if the Twins are able to get it that far. Unfortunately for the Twins, he has to face off against Sabathia, so even with their ace on the hill, New York has the advantage.

Game 5, Twins at Yankees, Wednesday, TBD

To be honest, I’ll be quite surprised if this game is played. The Yankees are substantially better than Minnesota, and the pitching match-ups favor them in every single outing. The Twins are going to need a minor miracle just to get to get to game five, and if they do, they’re either going with Duensing again or Blackburn on short rest. New York really couldn’t ask for a better situation for their first round.

Overall

The playoffs are a crapshoot. Inferior teams beat the best teams in baseball. Anything can happen. But if you’re betting, bet on the Yankees. They’re the prohibitive favorite for good reason. They have every card stacked in their favor, even before accounting for that whole best-team-in-baseball thing.