ALDS Preview: New York Yankees
There is little doubt – the New York Yankees are the best team in baseball this year. They won 103 games and it wasn’t a fluke, as their WAR projected win total was 103 as well. They pummeled their opponents for 915 runs, winning with a bludgeoning offense that made up for a mediocre defense and some problems with the pitching staff. As usual, though, the Yankees are built for the playoffs, with three strong starting pitchers, an elite closer, and an offense that can put up 10 runs on any given night. By getting to choose their ALDS schedule, they even get the advantage of only having to use three starters in the first round, putting an even greater percentage of the innings in the hands of their best players.
This would be a hard series for the Twins to win even at full strength. The Yankees are really good.
Game 1, Twins at Yankees, Wednesday, 6:07 PM
Brian Duensing takes the hill against CC Sabathia, and it’s not hyperbole to say that this might be one of the most lopsided pitching match-ups in history. After a slow start, Sabathia has been on a roll of late, and he takes the mound looking to shake the memories of a disastrous post-season a year ago. Minnesota’s best hitters are primarily left-handed, giving Sabathia even more of an edge. Anything can happen, but the Yankees have to be huge favorites tonight. Joe Mauer getting kidnapped is the only break they haven’t caught for game one.
Game 2, Twins at Yankees, Friday, 6:07 pm
The downside of the longer series is that the Twins get a breather after game one, which their bullpen will certainly need. The Yankees face off against Nick Blackburn, a pitch-to-contact strike thrower. That’s a tough skillset to win with against the Yankees in New York. The Yanks counter with A.J. Burnett, in a decision which I find a little puzzling. It’s tough to argue that Burnett is a substantially better pitcher than Andy Pettitte, and the fact that Pettitte’s a lefty makes him the tougher match-up for Minnesota. I would have though that facing the Twins to hit a LH starter in four out of five games would have been to the Yankees advantage, but Girardi disagrees and goes with Burnett in game two.
Game 3, Yankees at Twins, Sunday, TBD
The series shifts back to Minnesota for the first possible elimination game, with New York seeing despised former teammate Carl Pavano. Pavano’s had a better year than his ERA indicates, though he’s been prone to disaster starts as well, and the Yankees have to be hoping for the chance to pile up runs in a hurry. Pettitte takes the hill for his one start in the series, and as usual, gives New York the advantage on the hill.
Game 4, Yankees at Twins, Monday, TBD
Due to the extra game against Detroit, Scott Baker makes his first appearance of the series in game four if the Twins are able to get it that far. Unfortunately for the Twins, he has to face off against Sabathia, so even with their ace on the hill, New York has the advantage.
Game 5, Twins at Yankees, Wednesday, TBD
To be honest, I’ll be quite surprised if this game is played. The Yankees are substantially better than Minnesota, and the pitching match-ups favor them in every single outing. The Twins are going to need a minor miracle just to get to get to game five, and if they do, they’re either going with Duensing again or Blackburn on short rest. New York really couldn’t ask for a better situation for their first round.
Overall
The playoffs are a crapshoot. Inferior teams beat the best teams in baseball. Anything can happen. But if you’re betting, bet on the Yankees. They’re the prohibitive favorite for good reason. They have every card stacked in their favor, even before accounting for that whole best-team-in-baseball thing.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“But if you’re betting, bet on the Yankees. They’re the prohibitive favorite for good reason.”
This strikes me as counterintuitive. I really can’t imagine there would be any value in a Yankees line when their advantages are so obvious. I would say, if you’re betting, bet on the Twins, although that might be a little too obviously contrarian.
I would not bet this series.
I think he’s just making a general statement, like if you had a straight-up bet with a friend or something, not factoring in Vegas betting lines.
Yeah, I kinda figured. I guess that just seemed way too obvious of a statement.
Though if you have any friends that are willing to bet me straight up, I’ll take the Yankees, please.
Uh, why would you not bet on something that is pretty safe? It’s no different than betting on anything else with 4:5 odds. The risk is very low.
“…they totaled 103 WAR as a team as well…”
WAR= Wins ABOVE Replacement.
Going on your other response to my post, a replacement team is a ~47 win team. So the 2009 Yankees are talent-wise a 150 win team? That’s impressive. Why only 103 wins? Musta been really unclutch.
😉
obviously the work of that arod guy always taking walks and hitting homeruns.
Talk about a rally killer…
he actually said “their WAR projected win total was 103.” He did not say that was their aggregate WAR. I infer from this that their aggregate WAR was ~56.
When you’re pointing out someone’s mistakes, make sure they actually made a mistake.
That was edited after I made my post- I took the quote directly from his column.
“When you’re pointing out someone’s mistakes, make sure they actually made a mistake.”
…likewise.
Blackburn would be able to go in Game 5 on regular rest.
Otherwise, spot on. Unfortunately.
Ok, as a Yankees fan, here are the ways I could see the Twins pulling this off (roughly in order of likeyhood):
1) Bad AJ shows up, even with Molina catching.
2) Coke coughs up a big HR to Mauer or Kubel.
3) Girardi over-managing (bunting and such) the Yankees out of rallies.
4) CC being awful in the playoffs again.
With the Twins starters pitching well and their ‘pen doing their jobs.
I think 1-4 would all need to happen.
What do you guys think about Girardi’s bonehead decision to let Molina catch Burnett instead of Posada? It shouldn’t cost them the series, and they should still be favorites to win the game, but this is an incredibly dumb decision and they might not be as lucky against a greater opponent like the Angels or Red Sox.
I guess it’s only 2 at-bats, because if the situation gets high-leverage after that, Molina is coming out. Especially with 3 catchers. Catcher defense is really hard to quantify, so all I can say is that the effect should hopefully be small.
I would say that after Posada’s performance today–1/4 at the plate with 2 passed balls and 1 wild pitch that could have gone either way–Molina for 6 innings sounds like a luxury.
Talk about not backing up your bitter comments, Jorge.
Seriously. I’m a huge Posada fan, and I was irate about starting Molina, but Jorge really didn’t help himself last night.
“It shouldn’t cost them the series, and they should still be favorites to win the game, but this is an incredibly dumb decision and they might not be as lucky against a greater opponent like the Angels or Red Sox.”
you mean the Angels, who will be pairing Mathis with Lackey?
Dave, in a previous post you mentioned how Pythagorean wins is a bit more predictive than WAR-based wins. The Yankees pythag win total is 95, so maybe that is more indicative of their true talent?
You’re conflating a couple of different things here, John.
The correlation between past actual win% and pythag win% is higher than the correlation between past actual win% and WAR win%. But that’s just a function of the inputs – pythag uses RS/RA, which implicitly includes how teams performed in varying base/out situations, while WAR uses context neutral measures that do not account for these performances.
In general, those context-specific results have little predictive value. They helped win games in the past, but that does not mean that the teams will continue to perform at those same levels in the future.
Pyth. W-L is NOT context neutral, talent is (as far as sabermetricians are concerned). The Yankees totaled 57 WAR this year, that’s their true talent.
Dave, while were on the subject though, I scrolled through the recent history of the Yankees on BR, and noticed that they beat their Pythag. W-L every year other than 2007. Is there a reason for that? Does it have to do with Rivera giving them an edge in one or two run games? Does the pyth. W-L formula lose accuracy at the margins (for really good or really bad teams)? Or is it just statistical noise?
I don’t think they exceed their 3rd order wins every year, and that’s a better version of the pythagorean calculation. They’re just a couple ahead of their 3rd order wins this year, for instance. I don’t know off-hand if BP (or anyone else) keeps a handy list of 3rd order wins going back several years, but if you can find one it would be interesting to see how the Yankees do in that regard.
I think new york yankees is the best team in playing baseball. they got all the best defense and offense to win the game.so all i can say is the team are very good among the rest.
“As usual, though, the Yankees are built for the playoffs, with three strong starting pitchers, ”
When’s the last time they had that?
2003.
2007 doesn’t count with Wang (3.79 FIP), Pettitte (3.87), Mussina (4.04)?