With all the talk about Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee being the belles of the trade deadline ball, Matt Holliday is suddenly looking like the girl with glasses who lost 15 pounds and got lasik for her birthday. Someone would be wise to pull the baseball equivalent of asking him to dance.

After a brutal April (.240/.288/.360), Holliday has gone right back to being an All-Star caliber player. Since May 1st, but not including the two hits he already has today, he’s at .292/.394/.473 while playing his usual above average defense. Considering that those numbers are coming while playing in a good pitchers park, and Holliday’s performance should have ended any talk about him being a product of Coors Field.

ZIPS projects a .369 wOBA from Holliday over the rest of the season. If he’s traded to a team with a more hitter friendly park, that’s probably more like .375. Toss in the defense and the baserunning, and Holliday is a +4 to +5 win player going forward. Even with just two months remaining in the season, that makes Holliday about +1.5 wins compared to a replacement level corner outfielder between now and the end of the season.

While pitchers often draw the most attention at the deadline, an impact player like Holliday is going to have just as much effect on helping a team win this year. He’ll command significantly less in return to acquire than either of the Cy Young contending arms, thanks to his contract status, but for a team looking to gear up just for ’09, Holliday could be a big addition.

Two months of an all-star plus two draft picks? Holliday isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s worth it.

Let the buying begin. Today, the Boston Red Sox acquired some first base depth (also known as Mike Lowell insurance) by picking up Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

LaRoche is what he is – a slightly above average average left-handed bat who can play first without being a disaster and needs to be platooned. He’s good enough to start against right-handers for a team not in contention, but he’s a reserve on any team really trying to win.

ZIPS projects him for a .352 wOBA going forward, but switching to the AL East will hurt him a bit. His defense at first is below average, so the overall package is worth about +1 to +2 wins per season. He’s not a terrible player – just a bit below average. He’s also the kind of player you should never pay serious money to, which is why the Pirates had to be thrilled to dump the rest of the $7 million he was owed for 2009.

Boston can make this kind of move because of their financial resources – they almost certainly didn’t give up anything of value to get LaRoche, whose contract makes him a negative asset to most clubs. But, as a team with a large payroll, they have the ability to drop $3 million on a back-up first baseman for the stretch run.

Having LaRoche around won’t change the dynamics of the AL East race too much, but he does provide a stoploss option in case Lowell gets hurt again. Boston’s upside didn’t change much with this move, but they did raise their floor. LaRoche gives them the ability to not have a hole at first base, and that has value. Is it worth $3 million? If you’re the Red Sox, apparently it is.

I’d like to take this space to make an appeal to Andrew Friedman – please, go for it. You have a really good team (the best run differential in the American League, even) filled with young talent, and you got Tampa excited about baseball with a World Series run last year. Your team currently stands 4 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and 3 1/2 games out of the top spot in the wild card standings. You’re a contender. You just need to upgrade your starting rotation.

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player – he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Your team is interesting and fun to watch, and better than those two things, they aren’t the Yankees or Red Sox.

Last year’s postseason was a breath of fresh air, because we didn’t have the same old series we’ve been having over and over again all decade. With the Angels pulling away in the AL West, and the two titans of payroll currently in line for playoff spots, we’re dangerously close to getting the same AL playoff series’ we’ve seen 100 times already. As a baseball fan, I’m simply asking that you give me the chance for a more interesting October.

Call up Mark Shapiro and blow him away with an offer. Stick Lee in front of Shields, Garza, Price/Kazmir, and Niemann and run down the big boys. You have talent coming out of your ears, and a real shot at winning the World Series this year. I know you love Wade Davis, but you can live without him – you have 18 other pitchers who could take his place in future seasons.

For the good of baseball, give us another post-season free of either Boston or New York.

For the first time in two years, Jason Schmidt took the hill for the Dodgers last night. The first inning was a disaster, as he gave up three runs to the Reds, but he settled down after that and got through five innings. They couldn’t have been expecting much more, given the long road he’s had to travel to get back from arm problems that derailed his career. But what should the Dodgers expect from Schmidt going forward?

Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/x log shows that Schmidt’s fastball averaged just under 87 MPH and topped out at 89.5. His change-up was 82-85, showing little separation in velocity, though his 71-73 MPH curve gave him a change of speed pitch.

All of these velocities are way off of Schmidt’s days in San Francisco. In 2006, his last healthy year, his fastball averaged 92, his change-up 87, and his curve 78. He’s lost nearly five MPH off all three of his pitches. Getting hurt sucks.

So, with his power gone, Schmidt’s simply not going to be able to rack up the strikeouts like he used to. He’s going to have to pound the strike zone, avoid walks, and count on balls in play finding gloves. The problem, though, is that Schmidt was up in the zone all night. Here’s the strikezone plot.

The pitch-to-contact thing works with an 87 MPH fastball if you can command it and get a bunch of groundouts, but that’s nearly impossible when you’re pitching at the belt or higher. Not surprisingly, Schdmit only induced three ground balls last night, compared with 13 fly balls. You can’t get grounders by throwing an 87 MPH fastball up in the zone. That location worked when he threw 92 – not so much now.

If Schmidt is going to succeed in the majors, he’s going to have to re-invent himself. Try a two-seamer to get some sink on his fastball, pitch down in the zone, and try to become a strike thrower who lets his defense do the work. Because based on what he showed last night, the Jason Schmidt of old isn’t coming back, and he’s not going to get hitters out by trying to replicate his old game plan without the juice on his fastball.

The countdown is finally over – this afternoon, we unveiled the top five pieces in our annual Trade Value series. Since this is a recap post, here’s the whole list in one convenient spot.

1. Evan Longoria
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Justin Upton
4. Albert Pujols
5. Matt Wieters
6. Brian McCann
7. David Wright
8. Ryan Braun
9. Tim Lincecum
10. Chase Utley
11. Zack Greinke
12. Grady Sizemore
13. Dan Haren
14. Matt Kemp
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Joe Mauer
17. Felix Hernandez
18. Colby Rasmus
19. Adam Jones
20. Jose Reyes
21. B.J. Upton
22. Curtis Granderson
23. Justin Verlander
24. Stephen Strasburg
25. David Price
26. Jay Bruce
27. James Shields
28. Chad Billingsley
29. Clayton Kershaw
30. Josh Johnson
31. Dustin Pedroia
32. Ian Kinsler
33. Ubaldo Jimenez
34. Jon Lester
35. Nick Markakis
36. Josh Hamilton
37. Roy Halladay
38. Clay Buchholz
39. Jason Heyward
40. Tommy Hanson
41. Josh Beckett
42. Joba Chamberlain
43. Ryan Zimmerman
44. Max Scherzer
45. Adrian Gonzalez
46. Elvis Andrus
47. Robinson Cano
48. Cole Hamels
49. Jered Weaver
50. Prince Fielder

Honorable Mentions: Ben Zobrist, Kevin Youkilis, Javier Vazquez, Gordon Beckham, Pablo Sandoval.

The biggest riser from last year? Matt Kemp, who went from unranked (whoops) to #14. I just missed the boat on him last year. The biggest faller was Brandon Webb, who dropped off the list after ranking #14 last year. Shoulder problems that cost you a full season without a firm diagnosis will do that to you, especially as you head towards free agency.

Overall, I’m happy with the list. After receiving some feedback, there are a few things I’d change, however. Unfortunately, I was unaware of the clause in Troy Tulowitzki’s contract allowing him to void his deal if he’s traded. That’s a pretty nasty contract kicker, and one I really should have been aware of. That’s my fault, and had I known about that, he would have ranked lower, certainly.

However, I did find that the uproar about his true talent level exposed the fact that Tulowitzki is a pretty underrated player by a lot of the readers here. He’s a 24-year-old shortstop with above average defense and power who has significantly upped his walk rate this season. Players with his skillset are remarkably valuable. We love WAR around here, obviously, but this is not a list of what players have accomplished to date, so quoting Tulowitzki’s inferior WAR to other players simply doesn’t work as an argument about his present trade value. He’s a really, really good up the middle player headed for his prime. There aren’t many guys out there with his projected future value.

A lot of the “why isn’t this guy on the list?” questions came from fans of National League teams with good-but-not-great young pitchers. Yovanni Gallardo, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, and Jordan Zimmermann are all valuable assets, but trying to make an argument for them based on their non-league adjusted numbers simply doesn’t work. Put simply, the National League is vastly inferior to the AL right now, and the lack of a DH allows for pitchers who pitch in the senior circuit to post superficially better numbers than their AL peers. Simply put, you stick a guy like Chamberlain in the NL, and he’d look like Cy Young. Sorry, NL fans, but your pitchers aren’t as good as you think.

And, finally, I guess I should address the whole Sandoval thing. As I said in the Honorable Mentions post, I like Sandoval – the kid can hit. But based on the comments early on in the series, Giant fans need to pull back on the hyperbole train. 503 major league career plate appearances is simply not anything close to enough to establish his current batting line as his true talent level. There’s a reason ZIPS projects him for a .357 wOBA going forward despite his tremendous start to the 2009 season – he simply cannot maintain a .360 batting average on balls in play over the long term, which is the driving force behind his .400 wOBA this year.

The foundation of his offensive performance to date is, unfortunately, not a repeatable skill. For a player with that kind of developed body, you simply can’t project future growth like you can with most 22-year-olds (where strength is tied to added muscle as the body develops, which simply won’t happen with Kung Fu Panda), so there’s less upside here than with most players his age. He’s a good player, not a great one.

That’s it for this year’s Trade Value series. Hope you enjoyed it. We’ll do it again next year.

Finishing off our trade value rankings with the five most valuable assets in baseball. We’ll recap the top 50 and answer a few questions in the wrap-up post this afternoon.

#5: Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore: 0.3 WAR

Don’t freak out about his first 120 trips to the plate. He’s still a switch-hitting catcher with every offensive tool you could wish upon a player his size. He’s going to be the Orioles best hitter sooner rather than later, and his upside is off the charts. Baltimore has some great pieces to build around, but he’s the best of the bunch. Joe Mauer with power might be too lofty of an expectation, but a switch-hitting Brian McCann with a few more walks is still an amazing talent.

#4: Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis: 5.4 WAR

The best player in baseball, hands down. He’s an eight win player every year and he just keeps getting better. What else is there to say? He’s one of the best hitters of all time, and we’ll tell our grandchildren that we got to see him play. The fact that he’s only under contract through 2011, with $32 million due to him over those two years, means that this is as high as he can go, but he’s about as untouchable as any player on earth. He is the definition of a franchise player.

#3: Justin Upton, RF, Arizona: 3.2 WAR

Already one of the best players in the league at age 21. We’ve already talked about the pedigree of players who are this good at such a young age, and the career arc for this kind of player usually leads to multiple All-Star games and a good shot at Cooperstown. The bat is that special, and he’s a pretty decent right fielder to boot. As a pre-arb player, he won’t make any serious cash until the 2011 season, and he’s under club control through 2013. Enjoy him, Arizona.

#2: Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida: 4.2 WAR

The offense has been incredible since he arrived, but questions lingered about his position. He’s answered those with significant improvements in his glovework at shortstop to the point where he’s a decent defender at the hardest spot on the field to cover. Combine that with consistent top shelf hitting in a 25-year-old, and Ramirez has become a true superstar. The contract extension he signed keeps him under lock and key through 2014, and while the salaries aren’t a bargain, they’re not even close to his true value.

#1: Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay: 3.9 WAR

I might just have to retire his jersey if I keep doing this list going forward, because unless he gets hurt or takes a big step back, it’s hard to see anyone passing him for the next five years. His on field value puts him in the discussion with the best players in the game, but his contract is just so unbelievably team friendly that no one else comes close to his overall value to their club. Ramirez, for instance, will make $64 million from 2010 to 2014 – Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.

#10: Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia: 4.8 WAR

He’s not cheap anymore, and at 30, he’s headed towards the down side of his career, but he’s also on pace for his third consecutive 8+ win season. He is the guy who makes Philly a contender. Just a tremendous all around player that excels at every part of the game, his 2005-2009 peak is going to go down as one of the best in baseball history for a second baseman. $60 million over the next four years isn’t bargain basement money, but he’s worth twice that.

#9: Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco: 5.3 WAR

501 career innings, 2.76 career FIP. He’s on his way to a second straight Cy Young award and should destroy the previous record for first year arbitration eligible pitcher salary if the Giants can’t lock him up long term this winter, even as a super-two. He’s improved his previously poor command to the point that it’s hardly an issue anymore, and his strikeout rate has actually risen from his rookie season despite a two mph drop in fastball velocity. The inherent risk with all pitchers keeps him below the eight premium bats ahead of him, but he’d command more in trade than any pitcher on earth.

#8: Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee: 3.0 WAR

You don’t find many 25-year-olds with 1,500 career plate appearances and a .400 career wOBA. Braun is a classic middle of the order monster at the plate with easy power to spare. He’s making strides in improving his pitch recognition and should match last year’s walk total in the next couple of weeks. After showing he didn’t belong at third base, he’s become a decent enough defender in left. Oh, and he won’t make an eight figure salary until 2014.

#7: David Wright, 3B, New York: 2.5 WAR

The simultaneous drop in power and rise in strikeout rate are a bit disconcerting, but Wright is still a guy who averaged +7.9 WAR per year the last two years at age 24 and 25 and is signed for half of his market value through 2013. Without the weird performance this year, he might have cracked the top five. While I wouldn’t get too worked about about three months of baseball, he’s going to have to start hitting like the Wright of old again sometime soon.

#6: Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: 2.4 WAR

Guys who can make contact and hit for power are usually incredible offensive machines McCann has a career .201 ISO and 13.5% K%. Plus, he’s a 25-year-old catcher. Did I mention that he’s signed through 2013 for a grand total of $32 million? Atlanta, please put some talent around on this guy so we can all watch him play in October.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#15: Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado: 1.8 WAR

It’s been an up and down couple of years for the Rockies shortstop, but the future is bright indeed. He’s added walks and more power this year, rounding out his offensive game and giving him the tools to be a significant offensive threat. And he’s still an above average defensive shortstop, just 24 years of age, and signed to a contract that is so team friendly he should probably fire his agent.

#14: Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles: 4.1 WAR

The prototypical five tool player, Kemp has increased his walk rate each of the last two years without harming his core skills, making him a well rounded offensive threat. He’s also among the league leaders in UZR in center field this year, showing above average range and a cannon arm. He won’t turn 25 until September, and he’s just entering his arbitrtation years. Yeah, this is one valuable player.

#13: Dan Haren, RHP, Arizona: 4.3 WAR

Defying normal trends, his strikeout has risen every year since he reached the majors. He’s gone from a strike-throwing mid-rotation guy to a legitimate ace, and the contract extension he signed with Arizona will keep him drastically underpaid for at least the next three years.

#12: Grady Sizemore, CF, Cleveland: 0.8 WAR

He’s kind of the posterboy for the new school kind of player. He walks, hits for power, plays quality defense at a premium position, and uses his speed to steal bases at a high rate of success. The low batting average, mostly due to high strikeout totals, doesn’t limit his perceived value as much as it would have 30 years ago. He’s also locked up through 2012 at rates low enough to be considered thievery.

#11: Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City: 5.8 WAR

Dayton Moore has made a lot of mistakes, but signing Greinke to an extension before the season started probably saved his franchise $50+ million. He’s having a silly season at age 25, and is the runaway leader for the Cy Young award. He won’t be cashing in on his success until after the 2012 season, however, when his newly minted contract finally expires. Whoops.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#20: Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets: 0.7 WAR

On the field, Reyes is a superstar. He ran off three straight 5+ win performances in his age 23-25 seasons, which is a pretty incredible stretch of play. As a switch-hitting five tool player headed into his prime, he’s the kind of guy you can build a franchise around. Unfortunately for the Mets, they only have him locked up through 2011, so while he’s a bargain for the next two years, he’s going to get free market salaries starting in 2012.

#19: Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore: 1.5 WAR

While Jones is just a good player right now, he’s still scratching the surface of what he can be. Still just 23 years of age, he has the kind of athletic ability and swing to add significant power as he fills out, giving him a chance to be the rare middle of the order center fielder. Plus, he won’t even be arbitration eligible until after the 2010 season. All-Stars who make the league minimum before they turn 24 are remarkably valuable.

#18: Colby Rasmus, CF, St. Louis: 3.0 WAR

Everything I just said about Jones, except he’s also left-handed and a year younger. Rasmus isn’t quite as good of an athlete, but he’s a comparable hitter and could be better defensively. It will be interesting to watch these two develop, as Rasmus is more polished and might already be a little closer to his ceiling. They’re both franchise cornerstones, though. Blue Jay fans, forget it – you’re not getting this kid for Halladay.

#17: Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle: 3.8 WAR

King Felix has taken his throne this year, swatting away critics who claim he’s been overhyped since arriving back in 2005. The ability to command his fastball consistently has allowed him to develop into a true frontline starter, and with four plus pitches, he’s capable of blowing hitters every time out. However, like with Reyes, he’s only under club control through 2011, and his strong performance this season will get him a big payday in arbitration this winter. He’s great, and still just 23, but this is the last year he’s going to be cheap.

#16: Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota: 4.1 WAR

He’s just one of two guys in their 20s in baseball that you can look at and say with confidence that he’s an easy Hall Of Famer as long as he stays healthy. He’s putting up one of the great catcher seasons of all time, and at 26, he’s just entering his prime. However, he’s a free agent at the end of the 2010 season. Anyone trading for him would only be getting a year and a half worth of value before they had to outbid New York and Boston for his services, and just thinking of what kind of contract he might get as a free agent makes one shudder. So, while he’s the odds on favorite for AL MVP, I can’t put him any higher than this.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#25: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay: 0.2 WAR

The adjustment from bullpen playoff hero to front of the rotation starter has been rougher than planned, as Price’s command has been miserable this season, but he’s still showed ace-in-the-making stuff. Once he gets a little more confidence in his change-up, watch out. The major league contract he signed as the top pick in the draft makes him more expensive than most pitchers with his service time level, but he’s still a remarkably big bargain, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2015.

#24: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington: 0.0 WAR

I debated leaving him off the list since he hasn’t signed yet, but in reality, his situation isn’t that much different than an arbitration eligible player. He only has one team he can sign with, but enough value to command a pretty hefty contract. I’m anticipating that he’ll sign a major league deal worth around $25 million over six years, and even with his unproven nature, that kind of price tag for an arm like Strasburg’s is something every team in the league would covet.

#23: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit: 4.3 WAR

Verlander has made The Leap this year and is now one of the game’s most dominating power arms. He’s going to pass his strikeout total from last season before the end of July, as he’s dialed his fastball back up to 95 and is just throwing it past people. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they didn’t get him locked up long term before the breakout, so now they’re going to have pay through the nose for his final two arbitration years.

#22: Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit: 2.2 WAR

Chronically underrated, Granderson is a true star, offering power, speed, patience, and premium defensive value in one package. He’s one of the best all around players in the game, in his prime, and under contract for $24 million through 2012 with a club option for 2013 that will probably be picked up. If he hit for a higher batting average, he’d get more notice, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a star. He’s already one.

#21: B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay: 1.8 WAR

Pretty soon, we might just have to label Upton a tease. He has all the skills, and after a dominating October, he looked poised for a huge year. Instead, he’s regressed a bit, and at 25-years-old, we’re still waiting for him to put it all together. Even with the .239 batting average, he does enough other things (especially on defense) to be valuable, but he could be so much more than the +4 win player that he is now. With arbitration coming this winter, and the Rays depth of outfield talent, it will be interesting to see how patient Tampa is with him.