Continuing on with the trade value series.

#30: Josh Johnson, RHP, Florida: 3.4 WAR

This is what Ubaldo Jimenez would be with better command. The strikeouts and groundballs skillset is an ace package, and Johnson throws strikes too. His present value is extremely high, though health concerns and the fact that he’s a free agent after 2011 make this the highest he’ll ever rank. Still, a 25-year-old ace making $1.4 million this year? Teams would be killing themselves for a shot at the guy if Florida made him available.

#29: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles: 1.9 WAR

Kershaw’s stuff is so good that even with well below average command at age 21, he’s still a good major league pitcher. He’s certainly still a work in progress, but there’s enough present value, combined with his enormous potential, to place him here during his pre-arb years.

#28: Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles: 2.4 WAR

Here, we start to get into the list of guys who just aren’t going to get traded. The Dodgers aren’t giving up their ace – he’s 24, he’s a frontline starter who they have under club control through 2012, and even with his arbitration reward coming, he’ll be vastly underpaid the next few years. Like Kershaw, he could stand to throw a few more strikes, but that’s just nit-picking.

#27: James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay: 2.8 WAR

He might not have dominating ace-like upside, but his present value is remarkable – a durable, strike throwing machine who misses bats with a devastating change-up. His contract is unbelievably team friendly, as he’s owed just $7 million combined the next two years, then three low cost team options kick in, reducing the risk while also keeping him in Tampa Bay long term.

#26: Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati: 1.0 WAR

Don’t overreact to the .202 BABIP that has sunk his performance this year – he’s a 22-year-old monster power bat with defensive value as an outfielder. There’s legitimately best-player-in-baseball upside here if Bruce reaches his full potential, and he’s already a solid player. The Reds have a cornerstone foundation piece, as long as they don’t break him while trying to improve his batting average.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#35: Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore: 0.5 WAR

After a monster 2008, his follow-up season hasn’t gone as well – his walks and power are down, and UZR no longer loves his defense in right field. The talent is still there, though, and as a 25-year-old with across the board skills, he’ll have more seasons like his 2008 in the future. The contract extension he signed will keep him in Baltimore through at least 2014, and while he’s no longer cheap, the salaries are discounted enough to still make him a big time asset.

#34: Jon Lester, LHP, Boston: 3.4 WAR

The massive jump in strikeout rate (6.5 in 2008, 10.3 in 2009) is nearly unprecedented, and K/9 stabilizes very quickly. His velocity is up a couple of ticks, and it’s made the most impact on his curve, which is now a nasty out pitch. A 25-year-old lefty with this kind of dominance unbelievably hard to find. His contract is definitely team friendly ($30 million through 2013 or $43 million through 2014), but not the bargain basement rate that others are pitching on. If he keeps pitching like this, though, this will still look like its 20 spots too low.

#33: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Colorado: 3.3 WAR

This is what it looks like when a 25-year-old with the biggest fastball in the game posts a 3.23 FIP while pitching half of his games at Coors Field. Jimenez has the makings of a Brandon Webb-style groundballs and strikeouts ace, with stuff that few can match and improving command as well. He’s also due just $22 million through 2014, and the last $14 million of that is tied to club options for the final two seasons. He’s not a household name yet, but he will be if he can stay healthy.

#32: Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas: 2.8 WAR

His walks and power are up, and he’s worked hard to improve his defense at the keystone, showing that he’s not done improving despite an already strong body of work. He’s a legit 30-30 player headed into his prime and is locked up through 2013 at bargain basement rates. If he can continue to show that he’s an asset in the field at second base, than this is about 20 spots too low. Questions about whether his defensive improvement are sustainable or not hold him back for now.

#31: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston: 2.6 WAR

The reigning AL MVP is unlikely to ever have another power spike like he did in his 2008 campaign, but he doesn’t have to if he keeps hitting .300, racking up the doubles while making obscene amounts of contact, and playing quality defense at second base. The contract extension he signed that pays him just $40 million through 2014 increases his value as well.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#40: Tommy Hanson, RHP, Atlanta: 0.1 WAR

Despite a mediocre start to his major league career, Hanson is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He put up video game like numbers in the minors and was the most impressive pitcher in the history of the Arizona Fall League last year. His four pitch mix contains two knockout breaking balls and an above average fastball. His lower present value and high risks push him down here, but he could easily be top 20 a year from now, especially considering he’s basically free for the next 3 years.

#39: Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta: 0.0 WAR

Recently promoted to Double-A at the age of 19, this is how Heyward has handled his first 32 plate appearances above Double-A: four singles, three doubles, two triples, four walks, no strikeouts. That’s how you announce that the best prospect in baseball has arrived on the scene. A big left-handed premium bat with power and plate discipline, Heyward profiles as an elite hitter with some defensive value. He could be in Atlanta next year, taking the mantle from Chipper Jones as the next great Braves hitter.

#38: Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston: 0.0 WAR

In any other organization in baseball, Buchholz would be a regular member of the rotation. He’s mastered the minor leagues and even pitched fairly well in the majors, posting a career 4.34 FIP over 98 innings in 2007 and 2008. He’s got top notch stuff and improving command, which is why every GM in the world asks for him when they call Boston, but the Red Sox realize how valuable of an asset he is, which is why he’s still in their organization. Wherever he ends up, he’ll instantly become the future of the team’s rotation.

#37: Roy Halladay, RHP, Toronto: 4.2 WAR

Perhaps the most interesting guy on the list, because he’s actually in play. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s only signed through 2010, and his salary is prohibitive for some teams. The Blue Jays have made it clear that they’ll only trade him if they get overwhelmed, but will teams be willing to part with multiple premium players in exchange for ~45 starts from Halladay? I’m guessing Toronto will have to decide whether they want one top notch guy, or several pretty good players, because I don’t see anyone offering two players who could end up on this list next year.

#36: Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas: 1.0 WAR

He’s probably the most physically gifted player in the game, a supreme athlete with the ability to do everything on the field. He was a +4 win player in his first full season of major league playing time, and he’s improved defensively since last year. A true middle of the order hitter with defensive value, heading into his prime, and 3+ years away from free agency, he’s the prototypical franchise player. Injury concerns drag him down a bit, as does the lack of cost certainty, but on talent, he’s top five.

Continuing on with our trade value series.

#45: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, San Diego: 2.9 WAR

How different would the perception of Gonzalez be if he didn’t play half his games in a cavern? He’s posting a .273 ISO despite playing in the best pitchers park in baseball and rarely getting a pitch to hit because his teammates are so inferior. Oh, and then, there’s his contract – he’s set to make just $13 million through 2011. The Padres fans would riot if they dealt him, but his value will never be higher than it is now.

#44: Max Scherzer, RHP, Arizona: 2.1 WAR

Though he’s been projected as a reliever by many due to command problems and concerns about his delivery, Scherzer has established himself as a quality major league starter. The classic power pitcher, he has a career 3.50 FIP between last year and this year, and he’s still a couple of years from arbitration eligibility. He hasn’t yet shown that he can endure a full 200 inning season yet, so the risk of the unknown holds him back a little bit, but the overall package is still quite valuable.

#43: Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington: 3.2 WAR

For all that is wrong with the franchise, Zimmerman is the shining beacon of goodness. A good hitter and great fielder who isn’t yet 25, he’s already one of the best players in the game and has upside beyond what he is now. The newly signed contract extension will keep him in D.C. through 2013, but at rates that are just discounted, not massive bargains. He’ll likely always be a bit undervalued because so much of his value is tied to his glove, but if Washington ever puts some major league players next to him, he’s a great foundation piece.

#42: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, New York: 0.9 WAR

So, the conversion to the rotation hasn’t gone so well yet. His velocity is down, contact against him is way up, and he’s posting a 4.78 FIP because his command hasn’t improved. However, he’s still a premium arm pitching in the toughest division in baseball, and we’ve seen what he’s capable of when he’s going right. We can’t ignore the upside just because the last month or two has been ugly. The risks are significant, however – if he doesn’t start pitching better in the near future, he could easily end up back in the bullpen. Like Hamels, high risk and reward. At least he’s still cheap.

#41: Josh Beckett, RHP, Boston: 3.5 WAR

There’s little question that Beckett is a legitimate ace, with a projected 3.46 FIP going forward that is outstanding given the context of the division he pitches in. Still just 29, he’s a front of the rotation pitcher in his prime, and he’s sustained his velocity over the years, which has to be encouraging. However, he’s also only signed through 2010, so while his present value is very high, his future value is limited, as he’s going to get very expensive very quickly.

This afternoon, I announced the beginning of the 2009 MLB Trade Value series. Today, we kick it off with the bottom five.

#50: Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee: 3.7 WAR

The big man is having the best season of his career, as he’s upped his walk rate while hitting over .300, and the power is still there. He’s an offensive beast, and at just 25 years old, he’s headed for the prime of his career. Unfortunately, he’s a couple of years away from being a DH, and the lack of defensive value limits the amount of teams that would give up the farm to get him.

#49: Jered Weaver, RHP, Anaheim: 2.5 WAR

Despite the ERA fluctuations, Weaver has been remarkably consistent since arriving in the majors, posting a FIP between 3.80 and 4.06 each year. That’s a quality pitcher, to be sure, but he’s not the ace he looked like in ’06 or earlier this year. Toss in the health concerns and his 50% flyball rate, and while most teams would love to have him, he wouldn’t command a king’s ransom as he heads into his arbitration years.

#48: Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia: 1.7 WAR

After looking ace-like last October, he’s resumed being a good but not great starter this year, thanks to his home run problem. Health concerns will always be an issue with Hamels, and he’s no longer dirt cheap. He’s certainly a valuable arm with upside beyond what he is now, but the risks are fairly significant. He’s one of the guys who could easily be 30 spots higher, or nowhere near the list at all, at this time next year.

#47: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York: 2.2 WAR

Cano has rebounded from a lousy 2008 season, showing improved contact skills and finding his power stroke again, which make him one of the game’s better offensive middle infielders. He doesn’t walk and his defense isn’t great, but the rest of the package makes up for a few shortcomings. The contract extension he signed contains two team options that could keep him in pinstripes through 2013 at below market rates, as well, so he’s the rare Yankee other teams could actually afford to trade for.

#46: Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas: 1.5 WAR

He’s 20 years old and already a league average major league shortstop, thanks in large part to his defensive abilities. He has a good approach at the plate, solid contact skills, and should develop some additional power as he grows. His upside is extremely high, and he’s already a quality major league player. His reduced present value, due to the lack of current power, is the only thing that drives him this far down the list.

With the trade deadline just a few weeks away, it’s time to revisit the annual MLB Trade Value series that I’ve been doing for the last, I don’t know, four or five years. I stole the idea from Bill Simmons, who does an NBA version for ESPN.com, though my version leaves out the references to teenage soap operas and movies from 25 years ago. Sorry.

Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.

Over the last year, with the recession and the increasing intelligence of major league organizations, we’ve seen a significant rise in the valuation of young players. Where even a few years ago, people were applauding the Mariners decision to trade a bushel of talent for Erik Bedard, pretty much everyone now realizes that players like Adam Jones and Chris Tillman are more valuable than even established all-star pitchers, because of their ability to produce over multiple years for next to no salary. So, there are going to be some big name, high level talents that don’t appear on this list.

Johan Santana, for instance, isn’t on it, even though he’s a great pitcher. He’s just not great enough to justify giving up an elite talent in order to pay him premium dollars. Same with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Great players, but not among the top 50 assets in major league baseball.

So, over the next week, we’ll count down from #50 to #1, going in bursts of five players. We’ll kick off with #50-46 tonight at 5 pm, and then do 10 players a day for the rest of the week. The top 5 will be posted next Monday.

Making this list is hard. There’s so many good players in the game right now, and trying to decide who fits and who doesn’t feels like an impossible task at times. So, to close out the introduction, here are the five guys who just missed the cut. You could probably make a good case for any of them being included, but for me, they were just edged out by the guys above them.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston – 3.1 WAR

He’s turned himself into a terrific player, but he’s 30 years old and has reached the stage where he’s getting paid significant money.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay – 4.6 WAR

He’s having an amazing season, is a switch-hitter, and amazingly versatile, but is this kind of power sustainable long term, or is he a 28-year-old having a career year?

Javier Vazquez, RHP, Atlanta – 4.0 WAR

Having the best season of his career, but his ERA is still half a run higher than his FIP, continuing his maddening career tendency to perform worse than his peripherals.

Gordon Beckham, 3B/SS, Chicago – 0.2 WAR

A year after getting drafted, he hit his way to the majors. If I was completely sure he’d be a quality defensive shortstop long term, he’d have made the list.

Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B/C, San Francisco – 3.1 WAR

The guy once described as “Fat Ichiro” now goes by Kung Fu Panda, and while he’s a strange player, he can really hit. But he’s 22 going on 30 with that body.

Today, David Price matched up against Roy Halladay and won as the Rays edged the Jays 3-2. On the heels of a terrible start against Texas, where he walked five and gave up six runs while only getting four outs, seeing Price throwing six innings while only walking one batter had to be a big relief for Tampa Bay fans. However, he had some help. Take a look at the strike zone plot from today’s game, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

By my count, there are 17 pitches that are clearly off the plate that were called strikes. Plain and simple, Tim Welke had a wide strike zone this afternoon. If it was above the knees and anywhere near the plate, he was sticking his arm in the air. He was consistent about it, giving both pitchers a few inches off the plate on either side, so while he wasn’t biased one way or another, his calls still clearly had an impact on how the pitchers were able to attack opposing hitters today.

Compare the strike zone above with the one that Price faced from Dana DeMuth in his previous start:

Three pitches off the plate that were called strikes in the game against Texas, plus a whole host of pitches down in the zone, but over the middle of the plate, that were called balls. The strike zone that Welke called today was much, much different than the one that DeMuth called five days ago.

You hear a lot of talk about how inconsistent pitchers are, especially young pitchers. From start to start, the variations in performance can be drastic. However, we have to keep in mind that it isn’t just the pitcher’s stuff or command that’s a variable on any given day, but the opposing team, the park, the weather, and yes, the umpire. Did David Price have better command today than he did in his last start? Yea, I’m sure he did. But he got a lot more help from the man in blue today, as well. What would the performances have looked like if Welke had been behind the plate for the Texas game and DeMuth behind the plate for today’s contest? Significantly different, I think. Perhaps instead of one terrible start and one great start, Price would have just looked okay twice.

As always, the moral of the story – evaluating pitchers by their results, even their defensive independent ones, is a great way to reach some bad conclusions. There are just so many things that are out of a pitcher’s control that can have a significant, tangible impact on the final product.

Thanks to the declaration that Roy Halladay is available, the Blue Jays roster has been thrust into trade speculation in the last few days. Yesterday’s surprising release of B.J. Ryan, who had $15 million left on his contract that ran through 2010, only heightened the attention towards the contracts Toronto has on the books. It has become commonplace, in fact, for people to refer to the ugly contracts for Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, and speculate about Ricciardi’s ability to get someone to take those two off his hands.

Except, you know, those two aren’t remotely similar, and lumping them together is pretty dumb.

Vernon Wells contract is awful. He’s owed $12.5 million next year, $23 million in 2011, and then $21 million per season from 2012-2014. He’s locked up for five years after this one for the price of $97 million. Since the beginning of 2007, Wells has earned a grand total of +1.2 wins in 1,488 plate appearances, or about +0.5 wins per season. Yech. $20 million a year for a guy with a league average bat and defense that belongs in LF/RF? That might be the worst contract in baseball. He’s giving Barry Zito a run for his money, at the very least. The Wells extension has been nothing short of a total disaster.

Alex Rios, though? He’s guaranteed $59 million from 2010 to 2014 or $71 million through 2015, depending on if his option year at the end of the contract is exercised. That’s $40 million less over the same time period, or $8 million per year less in annual average salary. And Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the last two years – he was worth +4.6 wins in 2007 and +5.5 wins last year. And he’s got the exact same skillset as he had then.

BB%: 6.5% in 2008, 6.5% in 2009
K%: 17.6% in 2008, 17.0% in 2009
ISO: .170 in 2008, .156 in 2009

His .350 wOBA from last year has become a .325 wOBA this year simply due to BABIP variance, where his .335 batting average on balls in play has dropped to .288 this year. His career BABIP? .328. This “slump” just isn’t anything to be concerned about. He has 32 extra base hits, he’s 13 for 16 in stolen bases, his contact rate is exactly the same as always… there’s just no offensive decline here. He’s the exact same above average hitter he was the last two years.

ZIPS projects a .355 wOBA going forward from Rios, which sounds about right for a 28-year-old with his skills. That makes him something like +15 runs per year offensively, and he’s a terrific defensive outfielder to boot, easily capable of playing center or being a gold glove candidate in right.

Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he’s due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays. Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He’s as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get.

Vernon Wells contract is awful, and the Jays have to regret giving it to him every single day. Alex Rios‘ contract is very good, and he’s one of the pieces Toronto should be building around. They are in no way similar.

Because the UZR listed here on FanGraphs often gets presented as one number, and the fact that UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, it is often mistaken as shorthand for a measurement of a player’s range only. In fact, a player’s UZR is the sum of his range runs, his error runs, and his arm runs (for outfielders) or double play runs (for infielders).

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, here are the top outfield throwing arms, by ARM rating.

1. Hunter Pence, +11.1
2. Matt Kemp, +10.8
3. Ryan Ludwick, +9.0
4. Nick Markakis, +9.0
5. Brett Gardner, +8.4

Now, here are the innings totals for those same five players.

Pence, 2,081
Kemp, 2,039
Ludwick, 1,701
Markakis, 2,095
Gardner, 745

Which of these is not like the others? Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield.

When I looked up Gardner on the Fans Scouting Report for 2008, he graded out fairly average across the board in strength, accuracy, and release. Based on the 29 ballots filled out by Yankee fans after last season, Gardner’s arm was nothing to write home about. Melky Cabrera’s arm ratings were significantly better. Melky’s ARM rating this year; -3.2.

I haven’t seen Gardner throw enough to know whether the Yankee fans who filled out the Fans Scouting Report were blind or if Gardner is just taking advantage of a bad scouting report on him around the league. So, Yankee fans, help me out here – is Gardner’s ARM rating just a crazy fluke or did he steal Francoeur’s arm over the winter?

If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.

In fact, when you look at the total body of work that Gardner has put together since showing up in New York, he’s racked up +3.3 wins above replacement in 342 plate appearances. Even with heavy regression, Gardner looks to be good enough to play everyday.

A Yankee prospect that might have been actually underrated? Now that’s worth writing about.

Yesterday, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi created quite the stir when he told several reporters that he was going to start listening to offers for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. He talked with Halladay about potentially waiving his no-trade clause, and both have made public statements about this possibly being the right time for a deal. Certainly, Ricciardi knows how heavy the demand is for starting pitching right now, and with the lack of availability of premium arms, the bidding for Halladay could get fierce. That is what J.P. is counting on, I’m sure.

So, if you’re a contending team in need of a starting pitcher, and the best pitcher in the game just became available, how much should you offer? What is Roy Halladay worth?

First off, the basics. Halladay is under contract through 2010. He will make about $7 million over the remainder of 2009, and is due $15.75 million next year. He will then be eligible for free agency. We know he’s worth more than his current salary, of course. $23 million for nine months of Roy Halladay is a pretty big bargain, even in today’s economic market.

To figure out Halladay’s market value, we have to answer the question of what Halladay would get if he were declared a free agent tomorrow, but then only allowed to sign a deal taking him through 2010.

First off, let’s look at Halladay’s win values over the years. Since 2002, he’s been worth about 46 wins in 1,585 innings, or right around an average of six wins per year. He’s on pace for about a seven win season this year, and he shows no signs of slowing down. Going forward, ZIPS projects a 3.21 FIP and 106 innings in his remaining 15 starts this year, which would be worth another 3.5 wins. Halladay is a +6 to +7 win pitcher, easily the best in baseball.

The market value for wins took a tumble on the low end last year, but at the high end, teams were still willing to pay around $5 million per win for premium free agents. Based on that, we’d say that Halladay’s fair market value is something like $30 to $35 million per season. However, those $5 million per win contracts were all long term deals, which carry extra risk to the organization and therefore pull down the annual average value that teams are willing to pay. With only a 15 month commitment, the long term risk with Halladay is substantially lower, and teams should (and will) pay a premium for that risk avoidance.

So, for a Cy Young contender only under contract through 2010, $5.5 million per win is probably a more accurate number to use. That puts Halladay’s market value between $33 and $38 million per year.

If we settle on $35 million as a middle ground, which puts him around a +6.5 win pitcher, we then Halladay’s value through the end of his current contract is about $52 million – a full year of 2010 plus a half year of 2009. But, you can’t forget about the fact that he’s very likely to be a Type A free agent at the end of 2010, and the acquiring team would be able to recoup two quality draft choices if they didn’t re-sign him as a free agent. Thanks to some good work by Victor Wang, we can see that the value of Halladay’s Type A status is around $8 million or so.

$52 million for Halladay’s performance + $8 million for the draft picks = $60 million in total value. He will be paid $22 million over that time frame, so 60-22 = $38 million.

To acquire the Jays ace, teams should be expected to surrender something like $40 million in value.

What does $40 million in value look like? Something like three terrific prospects who are not that far from the majors. No one’s giving up players from the Matt Wieters/David Price mold, but it’s going to take several players from that second prospect tier, the top 25-50 type guys.

Phillies fans – that’s Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, and Carlos Carrasco. Mets fans? Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jenrry Mejia.

You get the idea. If the Blue Jays trade Roy Halladay, they’re going to ask for the moon. And they should. He’s worth it.