2009 MLB Trade Value: Introduction
With the trade deadline just a few weeks away, it’s time to revisit the annual MLB Trade Value series that I’ve been doing for the last, I don’t know, four or five years. I stole the idea from Bill Simmons, who does an NBA version for ESPN.com, though my version leaves out the references to teenage soap operas and movies from 25 years ago. Sorry.
Essentially, the idea is to take all the information that goes into encapsulating a player’s value to an organization – his present skills, his future potential, how long he’s under club control, the expected cost of paying him over that time, and the risks involved with projecting his future performances – and figure out which players currently have the most trade value in baseball. The #1 guy wouldn’t get traded, straight up, for any other player in baseball. The #10 guy is someone who his organization would call untouchable, but if one of the nine guys above him was made available, they’d rethink that stance. You get the idea.
Over the last year, with the recession and the increasing intelligence of major league organizations, we’ve seen a significant rise in the valuation of young players. Where even a few years ago, people were applauding the Mariners decision to trade a bushel of talent for Erik Bedard, pretty much everyone now realizes that players like Adam Jones and Chris Tillman are more valuable than even established all-star pitchers, because of their ability to produce over multiple years for next to no salary. So, there are going to be some big name, high level talents that don’t appear on this list.
Johan Santana, for instance, isn’t on it, even though he’s a great pitcher. He’s just not great enough to justify giving up an elite talent in order to pay him premium dollars. Same with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Great players, but not among the top 50 assets in major league baseball.
So, over the next week, we’ll count down from #50 to #1, going in bursts of five players. We’ll kick off with #50-46 tonight at 5 pm, and then do 10 players a day for the rest of the week. The top 5 will be posted next Monday.
Making this list is hard. There’s so many good players in the game right now, and trying to decide who fits and who doesn’t feels like an impossible task at times. So, to close out the introduction, here are the five guys who just missed the cut. You could probably make a good case for any of them being included, but for me, they were just edged out by the guys above them.
Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston – 3.1 WAR
He’s turned himself into a terrific player, but he’s 30 years old and has reached the stage where he’s getting paid significant money.
Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay – 4.6 WAR
He’s having an amazing season, is a switch-hitter, and amazingly versatile, but is this kind of power sustainable long term, or is he a 28-year-old having a career year?
Javier Vazquez, RHP, Atlanta – 4.0 WAR
Having the best season of his career, but his ERA is still half a run higher than his FIP, continuing his maddening career tendency to perform worse than his peripherals.
Gordon Beckham, 3B/SS, Chicago – 0.2 WAR
A year after getting drafted, he hit his way to the majors. If I was completely sure he’d be a quality defensive shortstop long term, he’d have made the list.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B/1B/C, San Francisco – 3.1 WAR
The guy once described as “Fat Ichiro” now goes by Kung Fu Panda, and while he’s a strange player, he can really hit. But he’s 22 going on 30 with that body.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Just a suggestion, since this is going to be an ongoing series: It looks like these WAR values are negative at first glance, which obviously they aren’t. Maybe a clearer way to format these listings would be like this…
“Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston: 3.1 WAR”
…instead of…
“Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Boston – 3.1 WAR”
Sorry if this is nit-picking or if I’m the only one who is thrown off.
Yeah, that threw me off at first as well. Luckily we probably won’t see too many negative WAR guys on this list, I would think.
Excited for this list, Dave!
I am very excited to see this list Dave. I’ve always enjoyed Simmons’ trade value analysis, and though I do at times like his pop culture references, I’m far more interested in the content. Keep it coming.
Second this; really looking forward to it.
He’s hitting too many homeruns to be Fat Ichiro anymore.
Too bad, it was a good nickname if I do say so myself.
And walking more, now, meaning ESPN will soon rally around to call him an asshole for team killing, unlike super scrappy, best hitter in MLB, could hit 50 HR if he wanted to Ichiro.
Sounds like someone has a man crush.
Yeah! Rage against that machine.
What? Ichiro gets a ton of undeserved flak. “He doesn’t dive and he doesn’t walk enough for a leadoff man because he’s selfish” are among other common-heard complaints that take away from the fact that he’s a perennial 4-5 WAR player.
I too first thought there was a typo in the negative win value, before realizing that it was simply a dash.
Needs more Teen Wolf.
Predictions for #1? I say Juston Upton.
I think Haren should be in the top 15 as well. Perhaps the #2 pitcher beyond Lincecum?
Longoria’s contract, including the club options, is $43M over the next 7 1/2 seasons. That’s my vote.
Yeah, it was Longoria last year and I see no reason why it would change. When Upton hits his first year of free agency in 2011, Tampa will pay Longoria $2 million dollars. And still have him under contract (counting options) for another 5 years.
Justin Upton is a very good guess, but if we include contracts, I’d think it would be Evan Longoria.
Grady Sizemore is going to be high up there, too.
Matt Kemp. #1 with a bullet.
I like Kershaw in the top 5 too. Dodgers are gonna have a lot of players on this list.
You are obvious a Dodger fan.
Kemp #1? Kershaw top 5? No bias there or anything. Lincecum has to be #1 or 2, he’s amazing and he’ll still only be a Super Two after this season (most likely).
Wait did I just read that right? Johan, Texiera, and A-rod are not among the top 50 assets in MLB?
Yikes.
Yes you did read that correct, and yikes is incorrect. The fact is, guys that can perform lets say at 75-80% of there value and make 5% of what they do are worlds more valuable assets. I’d argue that they might struggle to make the top 75-100 assets.
“yikes” as in seems paradoxical.
arod, tex and johan are being paid roughly per their production. the same isn’t true for younger guys like longoria or sizemore.
Would someone mind going into a bit more detail on Sandoval’s shortcomings here? I’m surprised you’ve got 50 ranked above him.
With the body-type critique, are you just saying that you don’t think he’ll be able to keep up his hitting? Or stay at 3B? I don’t really follow.
The only thing I can think of is that he wasn’t even a top 30 Giants prospect last year, so maybe coming out of no where and raking, people think there’s a chance he’s a fluke (although I completely disagree).
Body Bias aside, he has a higher OPS than any other qualifying 3B (by almost 70 points), and is younger than everyone (including Longoria).
Future value has a lot to do with it. The body-type critique is meant to say that he’s likely to see his defensive contributions decline to the point that he’s no longer an asset at 3B and will have to move to 1B/OF or become a DH. Unless he turns into David Ortiz, he’s not going to have much future value if that happens.
If you are talking about Baseball America’s Top 30, they admitted in one of their Ask BA’s after the season that leaving him off was a mistake.
And he didn’t come totally out of no where, he was considered a good prospect a previous year but switching him to 3B seemed to cause his offense to decline, causing him to lose status, both for the loss of offense and the loss of defensive value by moving from C to 3B.
He does not appear to be a fluke because even when he struggled offensively, his strikeout rate did not turn bad, and stayed under 15%, he was always able to keep his strikeout rate at the level good hitters keep it, when he was in the minors. His strikeout rate has increased this season, but so has his power and walks.
While I understand the body bias, anyone who has seen him score on a close play at home should have seen some acrobatic moves that belie his Panda-ish body type. He is more athletic than his body would appear.
People that say anything about his body have never seen him play. He’s not Bengie Molina, if that’s what you’re thinking. He’s incredibly dedicated to keeping himself in shape. The fat ichiro nick name fit well for more reasons than his hitting, he’s exceptionally fast and not just for his weight. His .408 wOBA is highest of any third basemen, he’s incredibly athletic and his arm is as good as, if not better than, any third basemen in the game….he needs to be higher on the list.
I was being too nice in my last post. This list is complete bullshit if it doesn’t include Sandoval. There are not 50 players in baseball with more future/present trade value than Sandoval.
If he’s super fast it doesn’t show up in the numbers. He’s also an average fielder, at least over the time he’s been up, and usually heavy guys don’t age well. Even if you’re dedicated to fitness, the weight is hard on the joints.
He doesn’t draw a whole lot of walks, at least yet, and as a consequence, his OBP is fairly reliant on his BABIP. Maybe this will work out for him but it’s hard to know whether there’s some luck there too from less than a season of major league at bats.
Maybe he’ll prove everyone wrong, and consistently be among the game’s elite. But you can’t be that surprised that a guy who is somewhat unconventional is rated conservatively.
On the up side, some people were pretty nervous about Lincecum’s delivery and he’s had an okay couple years.
Hey Tom, have you ever thought that there’s a chance that Sandoval’s hitting will regress? He hasn’t even played a season’s worth of games in the majors. While ZiPS probably underrates his ability because of his fast ascent, he’s projected to have only a .354 wOBA for the rest of the season. His BB% is low (7%), and his BABIP is very high (.361). Only 15 players in history have sustained a higher or equal BABIP for their career. Do you think Sandoval can sustain the same BABIP as Rod Carew? He’s chased 48% of pitches out of the zone so far in his career. He is a good contact hitter but his approach is quite poor.
Perhaps leaving him out of the top 50 was a slight oversight, but by no means is it “complete bullshit.”
Top 5 is MATT KEMP for sure
that guy is amazing
Oh no another Matt Kemp lover
Sandoval has to be in the top 10! Clearly you have a bias against guys who look like John Kruk. To eliminate Sandoval based on his body size makes you out to look like Dayton Moore and no saber guy. I have lost all respect for you! John Kruk was an outstanding firstbasemen and a career .300 hitter. Sandoval is Kruk with actual power! He will be a top player for the next 7-10 years for sure. I am a diehard Sabermatrician and all that matters is numbers not looks. Remember Babe Ruth might have been the fattest guy to ever play the game and guys who played with him said he was amoung the best glovemen in LF in his time. Good work Mr. Moore… sorry Cameron
“I am a diehard Sabermetrician.”
– ur doin it wrong
I assume you were trying to be ironic. Top 10? Really? What part of the Bay area do you live in? You don’t understand the process going on here and you have no idea how to evaluate talent, projectabiity, etc if you think he’s top 10.
As for as Dave using body type as part of his logic, analysis has shown that players with that body typical decline faster than others. Citing Babe Ruth doesn’t disprove that analysis.
Yuniesky Betancourt just missed the list, right?
Bwahahahaha
It’s funny how you can choose to interpret stats. I’d think that the fact that a guy was swinging at 48% of pitches out of the zone and still mashing the league as a 22 year old could be viewed as a positive. Imagine what he would be doing if didn’t swing at every pitch.
Also, it is disingenuous to compare a peak year to other players’ career numbers. Plenty of guys have sustained .330 averages over the course of multiple seasons but very few have sustained that over the course of a career.
I don’t know how Sandoval is going to age. I think his body type is a legitimate concern as it does seem that fat players tend to age poorly. I do know that Sandoval is a tremendous player right now and he is under club control for some time. It is hard to imagine how he is not in the top 50.
Well, obviously if he starts laying off more bad pitches and starts drawing more walks, the future starts looking much better for the Panda. But this is not a skill that always develops with a player’s maturation and aging.
A low BB% and high chase percentage is generally not considered a good thing for a player whose true talent-level has not been established. He has the second highest chase percentage and swing percentage in the majors this year. He’s a good contact hitter, but not great – he ranks 87th this year in contact rate.
The point of comparing BABIP to the career BABIP’s of other players is to show that Sandoval is likely getting lucky on his balls in play. His true talent level almost certainly won’t sustain a .361 BABIP – he may be athletic for his size, but he’s not THAT fast.
None of can profess to KNOW how Sandoval will age, but the peripheral numbers and best projection systems suggest some regression. And that’s without giving any consideration to him being “too fat.”
lack of knowledge = risk, which means less value.
Come on. He said he was close to top 50. 50 is about 1.6 players per organization (not team). Lincecum and Bumgarner and possibly Posey would be ahead of him in his own organization. Everyone thinks their team is getting screwed. This is one (bright) guy’s opinion.
The guy is 22, was in single A a year ago, and has recently been converted to a thridbaseman. I think you have to expect him to become more polished over time. Granted that it is too early to take much from this, but his BB% is up over the last month or two, and I think other Giants fans will tell you that this correlates with increased plate discipline. He’s still swinging at pitches out of the zone, but not the ones really far out out.
Well let’s just reframe it this way, Sandoval can’t sustain his BA because only 25 players have higher career BAs (and that includes all the oldtime players which BABIP does not). That seems obvious. No one expects him to be a career .333 hitter. You’re making an obvious point, but by using BABIP you’re trying to make it seem much more profound.
I think it’s funny that so many people are up in arms about Sandoval being ranked so low, but nobody is complaining about Zobrist’s placement. Sure, he’s six years older, but this season he’s got more power, better plate discipline, better speed, and much better defense than Sandoval.
What’s that you say? He hasn’t sustained this level of performance long enough for it to be a reliable predictor of future performance? Interesting point.
You have a good point, but I don’t think using Zobrist as your example was a good choice. Their age difference is a very important factor, and Zobrist has a past history of failing in MLB, while Sandoval has hit since the day he was called up. Career .336 vs. 392 wOBA for each, respectively.
I wonder how Sandoval’s value would change as a catcher. He’d be more productive, but that’d likely even shorten his time of production and career.
Matt Kemp over Lincecum or Longoria? You are dreaming. I mean Matt Kemp is a fine talent but we obviously have some Dodger fans posting here. Plus, I agree with Kung Fu Panda not being in the top 50, the guy came from nowhere. I like Pablo but you can’t throw guys like that on this list based on one half season of baseball.
While you may be right that Sandoval will age well, it’s wrong to put Fielder on and Sandoval off if you’re excluding Pablo because of his weight. They’re similar body types, both surprisingly fast for their weight, but Pablo, while not a good with the bat, is close to him in WAR and has 2 more years of club control!
Methinks Gordon Beckham shows up on this list in 2010. 🙂