Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard that Zack Greinke is currently carving up the American League. Through six starts, he has a 0.40 ERA, as he’s given up a whopping three runs, one of which was unearned. He’s thrown three complete games in his last four starts. He has yet to give up a home run. Not surprisingly, he’s 6-0, as it’s fairly easy to win when you’re giving up fractions of a run per nine innings.

Unless your name is Jose Rijo. I went looking for comparable stretches of high quality pitching, just to see how often we get treated to one of the runs like Greinke is on right now. A bunch of different stretches stuck out – Bob Gibson went 11 straight starts with 1 ER or less in 1968, just destroying opposing hitters and posting a 0.27 ERA over 99 innings. Pedro Martinez had a stretch of 10 starts at the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000 where he walked 12 and struck out 128 batters in 76 1/3 innings. Just some ridiculous numbers.

Nothing stuck out more than Rijo’s stretch at the end of 1988 and the beginning of 1989, however. 10 starts, all with two runs allowed or less. His ERA over that stretch was 0.68. He didn’t allow a single home run. He went 3-0.

He won three games in a stretch of 10 starts where he allowed a grand total of six runs. It’s not like the Reds teams of those years were lousy – Cincinnati won the World Series in ’89 was a year away from a championship, after all. However, Rijo didn’t work very deep into those games, as he was never the worlds most efficient starter, and in several of them he didn’t pitch the required five innings to earn the win. In a few others, the team wouldn’t take the lead for good until after he had left, so he wasn’t rewarded with a win.

Still, it’s tough to imagine that a guy could pitch that well and get shafted that often. Just more evidence, if you needed any, that a pitcher’s win-loss record is pretty meaningless.

Scott Kazmir is broken, and it’s starting to get to the point where we have to wonder if he’s fixable. First, some graphs.

At the top, we see Kazmir’s walk and strikeout rate trends over the years. They’re not good. From 2004 to 2007, Kazmir was among the elite strikeout guys in baseball, averaging 10+ K/9 in three of the four seasons. He always has struggled with his command, but the overpowering stuff made up for it.

Last year, he famously “lost his slider”, as you can see in the third image. He cut his slider usage in half and saw his GB% sink accordingly, becoming an extreme flyball pitcher. His strikeout rate dropped some, but not drastically, and while he had definitely taken a step back, there was hope that he would rebound after rediscovering his slider this spring.

That hasn’t happened. The fourth image is a velocity histogram of Kazmir’s start last night. His fastest pitch of the night was 90.7 MPH. His fastball averaged 89.05 MPH, confirming the data in the third chart – his velocity is off by a couple MPH this year on all pitches, not just his fastball. He’s throwing a bunch of sliders again, but they’re of the 80 MPH variety, not the 84 MPH power slider that he used to throw.

Those missing MPH are having a pretty big impact. Batters are making contact with 84% of the pitches Kazmir throws this year, way up from his 75% career average. In turn, his strikeouts are down, but he hasn’t been able to offset the loss of dominance with a corresponding improvement in his walk rate. His 4.91 BB/9 is the highest he’s posted since his rookie season.

Not surprisingly, this version of broken Kazmir isn’t very good. His FIP is 4.78 and last night’s beating pushed his ERA to 6.00. The Rays have David Price waiting in Triple-A, and with Kazmir looking like he needs a stint on the disabled list and an MRI, they might not be able to keep him down on the farm much longer. This Rays team needs a boost, and until they figure out what’s wrong with Kazmir, it doesn’t look like they’ll be getting it from his spot in the rotation.

Another week, another series of lessons. On to the learning.

Carl Crawford is fast.

Other than Crawford, two players have stolen at least 11 bases this year. Bobby Abreu has exactly 11, while Jacoby Ellsbury has 13. Crawford stole 11 bases last week. Stealing six yesterday helped, obviously, but even without the record-tying display of running, Crawford was stealing bags at a ridiculous rate. He now has 17 steals on the season, and he hasn’t been thrown out once. He’s setting a pace for 86 stolen bases per 600 PA, and given how well he’s running right now, it’d be a surprise if he didn’t beat his own personal best of 59 stolen bases. With a career 84% success rate, Crawford isn’t just prolific, but he’s establishing himself as one of the premier baserunners of this generation.

Justin Morneau will not wait for you to throw him a strike.

Morneau is a very good hitter in the midst of another very good year. He’s the classic left-handed power hitter, driving in runs in bunches in the middle of the order. He’s the kind of hitter that pitchers don’t want to make a mistake to, and are usually willing to put on first base with a base on balls. Only, Morneau won’t let them. He’s drawn just seven walks this year, and it’s not because pitchers are challenging him – he swung at a staggering 51.2% of pitches outside the strike zone last week, the highest mark in the league. His O-Swing% for the season stands at 37.8%, meaning that he’s swinging at nearly two of every five balls that a pitcher throws. I’m not one to critique the work of a guy with a .404 wOBA, but patience is a virtue, Justin.

Power pitchers were tough to hit.

The five lowest FIPs for last week among starting pitchers belonged to Randy Johnson (0.60), Yovanni Gallardo (0.79), Matt Garza (0.95), Justin Verlander (1.17), and Felix Hernandez (1.29). I love watching guys with impeccable command carve up hitters with deception as much as the next guy, but there’s something to be said for being able to throw really freaking hard. These guys are among the best stuff guys in baseball, and they rack up the strikeouts by having more chutzpah than the opponents. A good old fashion just-try-to-hit-it-i-dare-you fastball can be fun to watch, and those guys were on full display last week.

The Pirates offense could use some more punch.

Last week, Pittsburgh’s offense had a 35,000-way tie for first place in home runs, as everyone who attended a Pirates game had as many home runs as the team they were watching. Andy LaRoche hit two doubles, but he was the only guy on the team with multiple extra base hits. Pointing to a guy who hit .211/.348/.316 as your big thumper over the last seven days doesn’t exactly sound like a way to win games, though. Not surprisingly, the Pirates had a team ISO of .047 and they scored a whopping 18 runs. Their run prevention has been a nice story so far, but with that kind of offensive levels, they’ll be a footnote in the N.L. Central again before too long.

When the Indians had to place Travis Hafner back on the Disabled List, many fans in Cleveland saw it as an opportunity to promote Matt LaPorta. The International League isn’t proving much of a challenge, as he’s hitting .352/.427/.676 in 82 plate appearances so far, and the team could use an injection of hope after another disappointing start to the season.

Instead, they decided to recall David Dellucci, who had been rehabbing in Triple-A. Dellucci is a decent left-handed bench bat, but let’s be honest, he’s no LaPorta. Usually, I’m fairly supportive of teams not rushing prospects to the majors after a good month, especially if it might just be a short term promotion. However, in this case, I’m not sure I get it.

LaPorta is 24. He played four years of college ball, and now has played nearly two years in the minors. His bat just doesn’t need any more development. He’s a major league quality hitter right now, and there’s little to be gained by having him continue to feast on inferior pitchers.

The Indians are good enough to contend for the AL Central title this year, but they’re off to a rough start. Their window to win with this roster is probably through 2010, at which point they might have to take a step back while they reload. They aren’t building for the future with this bunch, and they could use all the help they can get to dig themselves out of a bit of a hole.

The Indians might have missed an opportunity here. If they lose the division by a game or two, this is the kind of decision that could lead to a lot of regret in October.

Heading into the season, the Angels were the favorites to win the AL West, but they were overwhelmed by a tide of bad fortune. Half their pitching staff is on the disabled list, they’re mourning a fallen teammate, Vladimir Guerrero got injured… even top prospect Jordan Walden hasn’t been able to shake the injury bug. It’s crazy how much adversity they’ve had to face in a single month.

So, it’s understandable that they sit at 9-12, in third place and 3 1/2 games out of first in the AL West. Given the losses they’ve sustained, that they’ve been able to stay afloat is a minor miracle. But if you’re an Angels fan looking for hope, I’ve got some goods news – your bullpen is going to get a lot better.

So far, the Angels bullpen has been the worst in the American League, posting a -2.30 WPA and a 7.07 ERA. Only the Nationals have cost their team more wins, and they aren’t exactly the standard you want to compare yourself to. The Angels pen has always been a source of strength for them, and they had reasons to believe that their high leverage group (Brian Fuentes, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, and Justin Speier) would again be an advantage in close games.

So far, all four of those guys have been giving up runs in bunches. However, take a look at the respective ERA/FIP for those four.

Fuentes: 5.63 ERA, 3.68 FIP
Arredondo: 5.40 ERA, 1.18 FIP
Speier: 5.00 ERA, 3.29 FIP
Shields: 8.64 ERA, 5.82 FIP

Shields is the only on who has pitched in a way that should be concerning to his future. He’s struggled mightily with his command early in the season, but has shown signs of improvement in his last four outings. The other four just have to be going nuts as balls continue to find holes. Fuentes’ BABIP is .460. Arredondo’s is .441. Speier’s is “only” .328, but that’s still 50 points above his career mark. The Angels defense isn’t good, but it’s not that bad.

You just have to chalk some of it up to a total fluke. The Angels bullpen has a 4.19 FIP, 8th best in all of baseball. There’s just no way that they keep giving up runs at this rate. I guess it wouldn’t be the 2009 season in Anaheim if even the relatively healthy portion of the team wasn’t the victim of bad luck, however.

Baseball is a highly cyclical environment. Over time, we see shifts in strengths between positions due to seemingly random patterns. In the mid-90s, MLB saw an influx of offensive talent at shortstop that surpassed any that had been seen before – Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada pushed the SS position into new offensive territory.

Then, it shifted, and third base seemed to be the spot where talent was flowing. Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira all arrived within a few years of one another.

There’s another one of these talent surges in process right now, and it’s taking place in center field. The amount of talent currently playing center field in major league baseball is just astounding. Here’s the list of CFs, aged 26 and younger, who have gotten playing time in the majors during the first month of the 2009 season.

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland, 26
Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle, 26
Michael Bourn, Houston, 26
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston, 25
Chris Young, Arizona, 25
Denard Span, Minnesota, 25
Elijah Dukes, Washington, 25
Brett Gardner, New York, 25
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay, 24
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, 24
Melky Cabrera, New York, 24
Ryan Sweeney, Oakland, 24
Adam Jones, Baltimore, 23
Dexter Fowler, Colorado, 23
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota, 23
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis, 22
Cameron Maybin, Florida, 22
Jordan Schafer, Atlanta, 22

That’s 18 young center fielders headed towards the prime of their careers. Obviously, guys like Sizemore, Upton, Jones, and Kemp are on another level compared toBourn, Gardner, and Sweeney, but it’s still fairly easy to pick 10 or so of the guys off that list and call them future all-stars. Or, in a couple of cases, current all-stars.

This is just a ridiculous amount of talent all coming into age at the same time. Even moreso than the SS/3B waves mentioned earlier, this one contains both elite talents and a lot of depth. Half of the teams in major league baseball are in possession of a young, talented center fielder. Some of them will flame out while others will move to the corner OF spots, but overall, we’re looking at CF becoming a very strong position going forward for the next 5 to 10 years.

With April coming to a close today, here’s a scattering of numbers that will make you scratch your head.

Bobby Abreu has yet to hit a home run this season, but he’s stolen eight bases without being caught. Apparently someone forgot to tell him that old player skills include added power and a loss of speed.

Speaking of home runs, the Oakland Athletics have hit eight as a team this month. Adrian Gonzalez and Carlos Pena both have nine home runs, while Torii Hunter and Carlos Quentin have hit eight apiece.

Bengie Molina and Yuniesky Betancourt each have 78 plate appearances and no walks. Marco Scutaro has drawn 22 walks already. Some walks are about respecting power hitters and not giving them anything to hit, but others are entirely a function of how often a batter swings.

James Loney drew 45 walks and struck out 85 times last year. So far, he’s walked 16 times and struck out on just four occasions. Now, if he could just remember how to hit for power, the Dodgers would really have something.

Carlos Gomez laid down 66 bunts last year, easily the most in the league. He laid down three in April. He might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball, but if he’s not able to replicate his 30 bunt hits from last year, he’s going to have a hard time cracking the Twins line-up.

Edinson Volquez has a 46% ground ball rate last year. Through one month, it’s 61%. Unfortunately for him, his BB/9 (6.67) and HR/FB (30.8%) are almost as eye popping.

When the Mets acquired J.J. Putz from the Mariners in a three team, 472 player deal, they believed they had found the relief ace to bridge the gap in the 7th and 8th innings and help them hold on to late inning leads. Putz had been one of baseball’s elite closers for several years, and his power fastball/splitter combo made hitters look silly.

Unfortunately for the Mets, they apparently aren’t going to get the guy they thought they were trading for, because this version of J.J. Putz isn’t particularly good.

His average fastball is down to 92.5 MPH, 2.5 MPH slower than he was throwing last year while recovering from an injury. Those missing miles per hour have made a huge difference in his performance as well – he’s now thrown 11 innings while walking six and striking out just four batters. His K/9 is 3.27.

Huge decline in velocity and a massive drop-off in strikeout rate are two of the main red flags indicating that a pitcher isn’t healthy. Putz spent time on the DL last year with a ribcage injury, but clearly wasn’t himself all season, struggling with serious command issues and only occasionally flashing his previous form. That he is still trying to pitch through an injury would not be any kind of surprise.

The Mets are going to have to get him checked out. They can’t keep handing the ball to a guy who throws like a power pitcher but has lost his power. That’s a recipe for disaster, and it cost them a win today against the Marlins.

Over the last decade or so, the main sabermetric truisms have been, in no particular order; we like hitters with plate discipline and power, bunting is bad, the modern day bullpen is inefficient, and don’t make decisions based on small sample sizes. The latter is brought up often early in a season, when strange things happen like Mike Hampton striking out 10 batters in a game or Emilio Bonifacio hitting .600 for a week. We trot out the old “it’s early, don’t make any rash judgments” line, and work to convince people that what they’ve seen so far isn’t likely to continue.

However, like most truisms, this is often taken to a non-logical extreme. People have begun to lean on “small sample size” like a crutch that helps them defend their original position in the face of evidence that should convince them that they might not be correct. The evidence might not be overwhelming, but as it begins to pile up, remaining wedded to your preseason thoughts is just as ignorant as overreacting to the performance.

Let’s use Victor Martinez, as an example. I talked about him whacking the ball in April the other day. He’s had a great month, hitting .388/.438/.624 and generally being one of the best hitters in baseball. We can be pretty sure that Martinez won’t keep hitting this well, of course, as it is a small sample of data so far.

However, regardless of what your preseason projection for Martinez was, you should now be quite a bit more optimistic about his performance over the rest of the year than you were on Opening Day. Dan Szymborski released an updated ZIPS projection that accounts for April data (thanks Dan, great stuff!), and ZIPS now thinks Martinez will hit .305/.380/.467 the rest of the season, up from a preseason projection of .293/.366/.447. That small sample size that we’re not supposed to get excited about has increased his projection for the remainder of the season by 34 points of OPS. That’s a significant change.

April is only one month of the season. Things won’t end the way they are now. We do have to be careful about drawing conclusions on small sample sizes. However, let’s not fall into the opposite trap, either – there is useful information to be gleaned from the beginning of the season. Pretending like nothing has changed is just as uninformed as pretending like the current performances will be sustained.

Don’t hang onto your preseason projections like they’re gospel. You’ve got new information in front of you. Use it.

Last night, Dexter Fowler ran wild against the San Diego Padres, becoming just the 18th player in the last 55 years to steal at least five bases in a single game. The rookie sensation continues to demand that he be penciled into the line-up, as he now has a .416 wOBA through his first 62 plate appearances of the year. Even with a crowded outfield, the Rockies are going to have a hard time keeping Fowler out of the line-up.

However, this post isn’t about Fowler. This post is about Chris Young. The tall pitching one, not the hack-at-everything center field version. See, Young was on the mound for the Padres last night, and while he only lasted three innings, that was long enough for the Rockies to steal eight bases off of him.

Yes, the Rockies stole eight bases in three innings off of Young. They didn’t attempt a steal after he left the game. They weren’t running on the Padres catcher, Nick Hundley, who had to feel fairly helpless as he watched his CS% go through the floor. They were running on Young, who has one of the slowest deliveries to the plate in baseball history.

After last night’s track meet, opposing baserunners are now 14 for 14 in stolen base attempts off of Young this year. This isn’t new, though – in his career, Young has had 131 bases stolen off of him, and 13 runners have been gunned down while he was on the mound. That’s a 91% success rate.

It’s even worse if you look at recent history. Since the beginning of the 2007 season, opposing runners are 73 for 75 in stolen base attempts against Young. That’s a 97% (!) success rate.

Given this, it’s fairly obvious that teams aren’t running on Young enough. The breakeven rate of stealing a base is somewhere around 75%, and anything over 80% is certainly adding value. With a recent 97% success rate, it’s almost impossible that other managers aren’t leaving runs on the table by not running on Young more frequently.

The Rockies have some guys with speed, so they were able to execute a game plan that should be typical when Young takes the mound. Everyone short of David Ortiz should be stealing on practically pitch Young throws. Every baserunner he puts on should be thinking second base.

Quite simply, Young is worse at holding runners than anyone else in baseball is at any other skill. He’s historically awful, and opposing managers need to take a page from Clint Hurdle and make him pay for it.