The CF wave

by
April 30, 2009

Baseball is a highly cyclical environment. Over time, we see shifts in strengths between positions due to seemingly random patterns. In the mid-90s, MLB saw an influx of offensive talent at shortstop that surpassed any that had been seen before – Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, and Miguel Tejada pushed the SS position into new offensive territory.

Then, it shifted, and third base seemed to be the spot where talent was flowing. Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez, Eric Chavez, Troy Glaus, Hank Blalock, and Mark Teixeira all arrived within a few years of one another.

There’s another one of these talent surges in process right now, and it’s taking place in center field. The amount of talent currently playing center field in major league baseball is just astounding. Here’s the list of CFs, aged 26 and younger, who have gotten playing time in the majors during the first month of the 2009 season.

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland, 26
Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle, 26
Michael Bourn, Houston, 26
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston, 25
Chris Young, Arizona, 25
Denard Span, Minnesota, 25
Elijah Dukes, Washington, 25
Brett Gardner, New York, 25
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay, 24
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, 24
Melky Cabrera, New York, 24
Ryan Sweeney, Oakland, 24
Adam Jones, Baltimore, 23
Dexter Fowler, Colorado, 23
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota, 23
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis, 22
Cameron Maybin, Florida, 22
Jordan Schafer, Atlanta, 22

That’s 18 young center fielders headed towards the prime of their careers. Obviously, guys like Sizemore, Upton, Jones, and Kemp are on another level compared toBourn, Gardner, and Sweeney, but it’s still fairly easy to pick 10 or so of the guys off that list and call them future all-stars. Or, in a couple of cases, current all-stars.

This is just a ridiculous amount of talent all coming into age at the same time. Even moreso than the SS/3B waves mentioned earlier, this one contains both elite talents and a lot of depth. Half of the teams in major league baseball are in possession of a young, talented center fielder. Some of them will flame out while others will move to the corner OF spots, but overall, we’re looking at CF becoming a very strong position going forward for the next 5 to 10 years.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

30 Comments
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azruavatar
14 years ago

Colby Rasmus will be the best player on that list.
/bias

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Shaun
14 years ago
Reply to  azruavatar

I am myself a large Card’s fan azru, but its hard to deny the level of play Sizemore has already established. Other than that, though, Rasmus looks to be able to be the next best.

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cpebbles
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

Rasmus is starting to lose some of his luster to me. He’s only 22, but after his offseason workout regimen I suspect he’s as physically strong this season as he’s ever going to be, and he just isn’t showing enough power to be a star. It’s not a matter of lacking a “power stroke” either: Several times he’s swung for the fences, made solid contact, and came up just short of the warning track. I hope he proves me wrong, but I’m starting to think he’s a 15 HR guy in his prime.

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tom s.
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

@cpebbles

Uhh, I thought power peaks between 28 and 30 or so. Not 22. And didn’t rasmus already have a 29 homer season at aa? In the hitter-unfriendly texas league?

Going on 50-60 pa’s to say that a 22yo will never develop serious power seems a little overboard.

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cpebbles
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

He had a big year in a bandbox in Springfield, though he performed on the road also. The Texas League, however, is a definite hitters’ league. I acknowledged his age, but the guy spent the entire offseason adding muscle and it resulted in warning track power despite the refined swing. I’m not sure why he isn’t hitting the ball harder, but I do know that he isn’t doing it. Maybe he’s going to pack on more muscle and make good, but as of now what I see is a guy with a power hitter’s approach and swing, but not his power. He’s still a good player, but I’m starting to doubt his upside.

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Fresh Hops
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

29 home runs in a hitters league at 20 is still 29 home runs at 20. Too much weight on a small sample. Honestly, it’s almost like you’re schilling to get someone to trade this kid to you in a keeper league.

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cpebbles
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

I hate fantasy baseball, and I’m not putting my weight on a small sample of statistics, I’m putting it on subjective observation. He’s hit the ball quite well several times this season, and it simply didn’t carry enough to be out of the park unless it was down the line.

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Davidceisen
14 years ago
Reply to  Shaun

I remember watching Chase Utley right when he came into the majors and constantly seeing him making solid contact only to fly out to just before the warning track. He was also about two years older than Rasmus. All of this really means nothing, except don’t trust subjective judgments on young players.

Also, even if Rasmus is a 15 HR guys, I think it speaks to the depth of CF that this would be looked at as a disappointment.

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