With his next home run, Grady Sizemore will become the newest member of the 30-30 club, combining both power and speed in a season that puts him among the American League’s elite. In fact, he’s only the 52nd player in history to rack up both 30 bombs and 30 steals in the same year. However, Sizemore’s actually in even more exclusive company, as most 30-30 guys have been corner outfielders. If we reduce the list of 30-30 seasons to guys who played either SS or CF, we find Sizemore in impressive company to say the least.

Sizemore will be the 13th SS/CF to go 30-30, and the list reads like a veritable Who’s Who of the best five tool players in baseball history – Willie Mays, Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, Dale Murphy, Ron Gant, Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Cruz, and Preston Wilson. Okay, so those last two names aren’t exactly Hall of Famers, but the rest of the list is the kind of company that any player would want to find himself in.

And, of course, it’s not even September yet – if Sizemore finishes the year strong, he has an outside shot at 40-40, where he’d join A-Rod as the only up-the-middle player to record both 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in the same season.

Despite the Indians failure as a team this year, Sizemore’s having an excellent season, and has been the best player in the American League this year. Let’s not let his performance get lost due to the struggles of his teammates.

After yesterday’s post on Randy Winn, I thought to myself “which infielder is the Winn of IFs”, and it didn’t take long for me to come to the conclusion that the underrated good-at-everything, great-at-nothing guy was Placido Polanco – the underappreciated infielder.

Now, Polanco is probably held in slightly higher regard than Winn – he was in all-star in 2007, after all. However, when people talk about the best second baseman in the AL, you usually hear names like Roberts, Kinsler, and Pedroia, all fine players in their own right. But we can’t overlook Polanco.

He’s a career .306/.350/.417 hitter, which is basically built upon a foundation of contact hitting and gap power – he’s aggressive at the plate, rarely walks, and won’t crack double digits in home runs most years, but he racks up the singles with his bat control. The approach works, too, as he’s racked up a career 4.24 WPA/LI mark, and that’s weighed down by a poor start to his career with St. Louis. Over the last seven years, his average WPA/LI per season is right around 0.8, putting him just under a win better than a league average hitter per season.

But like Winn, Polanco really shines defensively. The Fielding Bible had him at +5 plays in 2006, +10 plays last year, and already at +12 plays this season. Polanco is, by pretty every metric, one of the best defensive second baseman around, adding close to a full win to his team every year with the glove.

The combination of his bat and glove serve to make him close to +2 wins above an average player, or almost +4 wins above replacement. That’s a heck of a ball player.

He might not be Chase Utley, but he’s right there with the second tier of major league second baseman. Don’t overlook Polanco in discussions of the game’s most underrated players.

While Tampa’s breakthrough year has seen the rise of new stars and production from veteran role players, no player is more associated with the franchise than Scott Kazmir. He’s the all-star lefty who leads a rotation that is carrying the Rays to the playoffs, the franchise talent with a golden arm.

While Kazmir is having a successful season (3.58 FIP, 1.34 WPA/LI) that’s pretty much in line with previous results, 2008 Kazmir is quite a bit different than the one’s from previous seasons. Up until this year, he was basically league average at inducing groundballs, running a 43.1% GB% last year. This year, he’s at 30%, one of the lowest figures in the league. That doesn’t happen on accident – he’s pitching differently.

Thanks to the pitch type statistics here on FanGraphs, we can see that Kazmir has changed his arsenal quite a bit this year. Check out his pitch mix percentages:

Fastball %: 2006 – 56.2%, 2007 – 69.6%, 2008 – 76.6%
Slider %: 2006 – 28.6%, 2007 – 18.8%, 2008 – 9.0%

Two years ago, Kazmir was chucking sliders more than a quarter of the time, but now, not even one in ten pitches he throws is his potent breaking ball. Those missing sliders have all become fastballs, presumably as Kazmir tries to keep the stress off his elbow and stay healthy. Since his fastball is a four seam fastball that he locates up in the zone when going for strikeouts, the increased fastballs have led to an increase in fly balls – Kazmir is currently one of the most extreme flyball starters in the A.L.

This looks like a legitimate change in approach, and as long as he keeps relying heavily on his fastball, we shouldn’t expect his groundball percentage to revert to previous levels. Unless he learns how to throw the slider and stay healthy at the same time, this flyballing Kazmir is probably here to stay.

Is there a more under-appreciated player in baseball than Randy Winn? In his career, he’s been traded for a manager, then traded for Jesse Foppert, and now plays for a terrible Giants team where he’s regarded as a role player and wasn’t widely pursued by any of the teams looking for outfield help in July. Meanwhile, he just continues to perform at a level that makes him a borderline all-star and one of the game’s better outfielders.

Since 2002, when he finally got regular playing time with Tampa, he’s posted seasonal WPA/LI marks of 1.59, -0.35, 0.38, 2.44, -1.00, 1.08, and 1.21. There’s a bad year and a great year in there, but generally, he’s around one win better than a league average hitter. He hasn’t posted huge raw lines, but because he’s played for Seattle and San Francisco, he’s spent most of his time in low run scoring environments, making his .770 career OPS more valuable than with comparable players in more hitter friendly parks.

But with Winn, it’s not just about the offense. His glove is very, very good – The Fielding Bible +/- system has him as +14, +12, and +16 plays as a right fielder the last three years, and this is consistent with his career – he’s basically a center fielder playing a corner, and his performances bear that out. He’s consistently a full win better than other corner outfielders defensively, and when you add that to his offensive production, that makes him quite a valuable player.

If we give him +1 win above average for offense, +1 win above average for defense, and then -0.5 wins for the position adjustment, we still come out with Winn being something like 1.5 wins above an average NL player. Due to the league disparity, where the NL is still clearly inferior, we could knock off another half a win and say that Winn is +1 win above an average major leaguer, or about +3 wins above a replacement level outfielder.

You could pretty easily make a case that Randy Winn is in the same class of players as guys like Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn in terms of value to a team. Meanwhile, those three will be seeking big paydays this winter, while Winn is owed just $8.25 million for 2009 before his contract expires.

If your a major league team looking for an outfielder this winter, calling the Giants about Randy Winn should be your very first move. He’s an absolute bargain, and one of the most valuable, least appreciated players in the game.

24 years ago, the Chicago Cubs acquired Rick Sutcliffe from the Indians during the summer to bolster their rotation – he made 20 starts, went 16-1, and won the N.L. Cy Young award. It’s generally considered the best midseason pitching acquisition in baseball history, but with CC Sabathia throwing another complete game last night for Milwaukee, it’s an issue worth revisiting.

Let’s take a look a deeper look at the three contenders for the crown:

1984 Sutcliffe: 150 1/3 IP, 3.97 K/BB, 0.54 HR/9, 2.28 FIP, 1.52 WPA/LI
1988 Randy Johnson: 84 1/3 IP, 4.46 K/BB, 0.43 HR/9, 2.04 FIP, 2.62 WPA/LI
2008 Sabathia: 73 IP, 4.60 K/9, 0.49 HR/9, 2.59 FIP, 2.06 WPA/LI

Sutcliffe gets the award for quantity, piling up the innings in his 20 starts as a Cub, but he can’t touch Randy Johnson’s remarkable dominance on a pitch-by-pitch basis. After the Astros picked him up, The Big Unit was absolutely unhittable, throwing four complete game shutouts in his eleven starts. His WPA/LI mark is absurd considering that it covers just 11 starts – Tim Lincecum has piled up a 2.62 WPA/LI in his 25 starts this season, and he’s one of the top contenders for the Cy Young award.

Based on the linear weights method that WPA/LI represents, it appears clear that Johnson outpitched Sutcliffe even with the innings discrepancy. Sabathia probably won’t equal Johnson’s brilliance, but if he continues to pitch at the level he has since arriving in Milwaukee, he’ll get close, and he’s certainly put himself in the discussion. This trade couldn’t have gone any better for the Brewers.

What a strange, strange season B.J. Upton is having. If you didn’t see the play from last night, well, just imagine the laziest baserunning play possible, then carry that to an exponent of ten, and that’s how bad Upton looked getting tagged from behind by Mark Teixeira while not running out a double. He wasn’t running hard because he thought it was a home run, though it’s anyone’s guess why he kept jogging after the ball hit the wall . Given that he was just benched by manager Joe Maddon for a lack of hustle, doing his best Manny impersonation probably wasn’t a good idea.

However, that’s not the only reason why Upton’s having a strange year. Look at his line for the season, and then try to think of a similar performance:

.269/.380/.398, 435 AB, 8 HR, 82 BB, 107 K

The OBP/SLG line aren’t that strange, as there are always guys floating around that specialize in getting on base even though they aren’t much in the way of power threats. Often, these guys are middle infielders with great bat control (think Willie Randolph or Luis Castillo) who hit for a nice average and draw walks due to their control of the strike zone. That doesn’t describe B.J. Upton at all.

Instead, Upton has walk and strikeout rates that would be normal for a power hitting slugger, but he just has eight home runs. He’s not getting the fear walks that guys like Pujols and Berkman do, but instead, he’s drawing ball four by being willing to work the count – he has just a 40% swing rate and a 14% O-Swing%, showing that he’s just not willing to chase pitches out of the zone. Generally, however, pitchers will challenge hitters who work the count but aren’t long ball threats, which is why Marco Scutaro isn’t drawing 80 walks a year.

The only guy who has found success with a similar skillset in MLB history is Tony Phillips, who was the king of working the count without having a lot of power. For all of Upton’s physical abilities, though, he’ll have to be disappointed if his career ends up as a Tony Phillips type player – he really should be a star, but as last night made obvious, the work ethic still isn’t there. Hopefully he learns.

Attention everyone looking for the missing offense in the AL in 2008 – I found it today.

Baltimore beat Detroit 16-8 behind five home runs from the group of Melvin Mora, Luke Scott, and Aubrey Huff. The losing Tigers racked up 15 hits and chased the Orioles starting pitcher from the game in the second inning.

Toronto beat Boston 15-4 thanks to 10 doubles, including four from Alex Rios. They had 12 extra base hits, but only one home run (by Adam Lind), and hammered Josh Beckett for 8 runs in 2 1/3 innings pitched.

New York beat Kansas City 15-6 as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez combined to go a perfect 7 for 7 with a couple of walks, reaching base all nine times they came to the plate. It’s a good thing Brian Bannister understands FIP, because his ERA took a beating, giving up 10 runs in just an inning of work.

Chicago beat Oakland 13-1 thanks to Carlos Quentin’s continued success (2 for 3, home run, two walks, four RBI). They also got a grand slam from Alexei Ramirez. Not rejuvenated Ken Griffey Jr went 0 for 3, however.

Minnesota beat Seattle 11-8 as the two teams combined for 33 hits. Raul Ibanez carried the day, going 5 for 5 in a losing effort, while Jason Kubel was the hitting star for Minnesota (4 for 5, a couple of doubles) as he continued to kill the Mariners this year.

And, finally, as I write this, Carlos Pena just launched a three run homer to give the Rays a 4-0 lead over Texas in the 3rd inning. Odds are pretty good that there will be a few more runs scored in that one too, adding a potential sixth high scoring game to the AL ledger.

In the statistical community, you’ll generally see two baselines for metrics that compare players one to another – average and replacement level. There have been a lot of arguments about what replacement level is, whether it’s the same for each position, and whether or not it works for every team. However, most people generally don’t quibble with above average metrics, because the concept of average is taught in third grade math. Everyone knows what average is.

But what does average look like? When we talk about contribution over an average player, who are we talking about? Who is the personification of average production in MLB?

For 2008, one man stands above the rest – the most consistently average player in baseball. That man is Kelly Johnson.

His batting average is .266, compared to a league average of .259.
His on base percentage is .335, compared to a league average of .330.
His slugging percentage is .416, compared to a league average of .413.

He’s posting an average BB/K rate, an average ISO, and an average BABIP. His WPA/LI (which is measured as above average) is -0.01. He’s even average defensively, as the Fielding Bible +/- system ranks him as just +3 plays as a second baseman, which is not quite a premium position but not a spot for oafs either.

You name the skill, Johnson is probably about league average at it. So, the next time you hear someone refer to runs or wins above average, feel free to reinterpret it as runs or wins above Kelly Johnson.

It’s been a disappointing season in Atlanta with more downs than ups and, for the first time since the days of Columbus, that the Braves weren’t contenders down the stretch. However, there’s been a bright spot down south, and that bright spot hit for the cycle last night. We are, of course, talking about the resurgence of Mark Kotsay.

Over the winter, the A’s traded Kotsay to the Braves for Joey Devine, while also agreeing to pick up all but $2 million of the salary owed to Kotsay this year. While Devine has blossomed in Oakland and the Braves would certainly like to have him back, they have to be happy with what they’ve gotten from Kotsay, even with injury issues that kept him out for the month of June.

His 5 for 5 night last night brought his season line to .300/.346/.443. His gap power is back and his contact rate is still strong, and with better health has come more hard hit balls – his line drive rate is up to 21.9% from the 14.5% of last year. More line drives mean more hits, and that difference is the reason that his batting average has climbed back from his .214 mark last year.

As we can see from his WPA/LI (0.04), as well as the great new RV/PA (0.01) from the guys at Stat Corner, Kotsay’s been a dead on league average hitter this year. The injuries have taken a toll on his defensive abilities, and he’s probably more of a corner outfielder than a CF at this point in his career, but that just brings him down to an average player overall.

It isn’t every day when you can pick up an average player for who you owe just $2 million for the season. The loss of Devine hurts, but Kotsay has been a success for the Braves in a season where they haven’t had as many of those as they needed.

With Brad Ziegler putting up zeros in Oakland, most of the conversations this year about A.L. West rookie relievers have been centered on the bay area, and rightfully so. However, don’t let Jose Arredondo get lost in the shuffle – he’s having a pretty tremendous debut season himself.

Arredondo, a converted outfielder who has been climbing through the minors as a pitcher since 2005, has impressed the Angels enough to become the primary 8th inning setup guy for LAnaheim. He’s done it with a power fastball (93.6 MPH average velocity) that induces ground balls at a significant clip (56% GB%), but also working in a change-up and a split-finger to keep left-handed hitters off balance. In fact, Arredondo’s two off-speed pitches have been so effective, he’s actually be better against LHBs than RHBs.

vs RHB: .219/.313/.288, 83 PA, 9 BB, 12 K
vs LHB: .147/.194/.206, 72 PA, 4 BB, 20 K

His ability to blow left-handed hitters away with a variety of soft stuff, while pounding right-handed hitters with a groundball inducing fastball, makes him a perfect high leverage reliever. He has different weapons for different scenarios, and unlike a lot of converted position players, he’s not just trying to get batters out on arm strength.

Now, he’s not as good as his 0.92 ERA suggests – the 3.17 FIP is closer to his real talent level, but since relievers post a below average BABIP as a group, FIP will underrate him a little bit. But it seems clear that with his ability to throw strikes, miss bats, and control hitters from both sides of the plate, the Angels have a pretty terrific young relief ace waiting in the wings should Francisco Rodriguez choose to leave via free agency this winter.