Winn Value
Is there a more under-appreciated player in baseball than Randy Winn? In his career, he’s been traded for a manager, then traded for Jesse Foppert, and now plays for a terrible Giants team where he’s regarded as a role player and wasn’t widely pursued by any of the teams looking for outfield help in July. Meanwhile, he just continues to perform at a level that makes him a borderline all-star and one of the game’s better outfielders.
Since 2002, when he finally got regular playing time with Tampa, he’s posted seasonal WPA/LI marks of 1.59, -0.35, 0.38, 2.44, -1.00, 1.08, and 1.21. There’s a bad year and a great year in there, but generally, he’s around one win better than a league average hitter. He hasn’t posted huge raw lines, but because he’s played for Seattle and San Francisco, he’s spent most of his time in low run scoring environments, making his .770 career OPS more valuable than with comparable players in more hitter friendly parks.
But with Winn, it’s not just about the offense. His glove is very, very good – The Fielding Bible +/- system has him as +14, +12, and +16 plays as a right fielder the last three years, and this is consistent with his career – he’s basically a center fielder playing a corner, and his performances bear that out. He’s consistently a full win better than other corner outfielders defensively, and when you add that to his offensive production, that makes him quite a valuable player.
If we give him +1 win above average for offense, +1 win above average for defense, and then -0.5 wins for the position adjustment, we still come out with Winn being something like 1.5 wins above an average NL player. Due to the league disparity, where the NL is still clearly inferior, we could knock off another half a win and say that Winn is +1 win above an average major leaguer, or about +3 wins above a replacement level outfielder.
You could pretty easily make a case that Randy Winn is in the same class of players as guys like Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, or Adam Dunn in terms of value to a team. Meanwhile, those three will be seeking big paydays this winter, while Winn is owed just $8.25 million for 2009 before his contract expires.
If your a major league team looking for an outfielder this winter, calling the Giants about Randy Winn should be your very first move. He’s an absolute bargain, and one of the most valuable, least appreciated players in the game.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
How is his bat worth 1 WAR?
Winn’s OBP/SLG = .364/.431… Ramirez’s OBP/SLG = .412/.558, Burrell’s .389/.551, Dunn’s .383/.534. I don’t think that it is an easy case to make, to say Winn is in the same class as these guys. Maybe if “value to a team” is vague enough, but for a playoff run, I can’t imagine teams showing the same interest in a player like Winn as those three you mentioned. The presence of a player like Ramirez, Dunn, and Burrell in a lineup of a playoff team cannot be overlooked. Not to mention, really, I think players like Winn are a dime a dozen, or at least a pair in a trio, the Dodgers have two of them in Kemp (.349/.481) and Ethier (.343/.472), both of whom are good outfielders. The Dbacks have Justin Upton (.353/.433) before he went down and Eric Byrnes (.353/.460 last year), also both good outfielders. In fact, even the Giants have Fred Lynn (.356/.453) who apparently is good in the outfield although I have seen him make some bonehead plays, and Aaron Rowand (.353, .442). So I think Winn is exactly what the league has recognized him as, a good ball player that could finish off a complete outfield, but to be the cornerstone in a trade deadline deal… hard to imagine.
Correction: Fred Lewis
Excuse me, meant to say how is his bat 1 win above average (not WAR)?
Roman, you’re kind of making my point for me. Most baseball fans analyze players by their offense, put them into categories of great hitter/good hitter/average hitter/bad hitter, and then assume that the defense and baserunning stuff doesn’t matter enough to change their established categorization.
That’s totally wrong.
The difference between Manny Ramirez and Randy Winn defensively is about 30 runs. The offensive gap is around 25 runs in Manny’s favor. Put together, Winn is about 5 runs (or half a win) better than Manny. I know, no one believes this, but it’s true. Randy Winn is a better baseball player, right now, than Manny Ramirez.
When you make your classifications of players based on what a guy does in the batters box, you miss a lot of stuff. That’s why Randy Winn is so massively underappreciated.
And Nick, Winn’s WPA/LI is 1.34 this year and was 1.08 last year. WPA/LI is basically offensive wins above average. If you prefer, you can use wOBA (now publiished at statcorner.com) and run it through Tango’s win value calculator – Winn had a .356 wOBA last year and a .357 wOBA this year.
Roman, your comparison is neglecting one important issue: Defense. I don’t know the exact stats, but Manny, Dunn, and Burrell are all lousy defenders in the outfield.
Taking Manny as an example, Dave’s earlier post on the Manny/Hermide trade pointed out that the Fielding Bible had Manny as a -15 run defender as of July 30th. If you project that out to -20 runs over the course of a full season, then that takes about two wins off of what he contributes with the bat, which has been about +3.5 wins over the past few years (according to WPA/LI), then that gets you to a net +1.5-win player. I’d say that’s about the same class as what Dave has estimated for Randy Winn.
whoops! Posted just a bit too late.
Also, although not an exceptionally prolific basestealer for his career, Winn is 22-2 SB-CS on the year. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to imagine that, even at age 34, Winn is a significantly better baserunner than most of the aforementioned sluggers (Manny, etc.). I agree with Dave, he’s valuable due to his secondary skills, but it also leads to him being very underrated.
I think we are still missing something here.
I feel someone with Winn’s abilities and production are relatively easy to find, and thus doesn’t make him under-appreciated.
None-the-less, remember the effect the Green Monster had on Manny’s defensive stats too. I’d like to see Winn compared to Dunn and Burrell and see how he matches up.
That’s the problem, though, Roman – players with Winn’s production aren’t easy to find. He’s a +3 win player compared to replacement level – there just aren’t that many +3 win players laying around like you claim.
And, as MGL has noted, if you think the Green Monster is screwing up Manny’s stats, just look at his performances on the road, which are just as horrible. Manny’s an awful defensive outfielder – it’s not the wall.
These are all good points, I’m not sure why I am being so stubborn. Where can I find up to date stats from the Fielding Bible system?
The Fielding Bible +/- numbers are published at Bill James Online, which requires a subscription of $3 a month to access. However, the past numbers are available in The Fielding Bible books that John Dewan has published as well.
If you don’t feel like ponying up the $3 a month for access to BJO, a little googling will usually get you relatively current UZR data, which is pretty similar to Plus/Minus, just with a different data set (Stats Inc. vs BIS).
Justin posts averages of STATS and BIS zone ratings converted into runs, which (to my knowledge) is the best, free, up-to-date fielding metric available. And he gives you offensive (context-neutral) runs and position adjustments.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1
In 2008, Winn is as valuable as the Pirates’ version of Xavier Nady and the Red Sox version of Manny.
Thank you Sky. So if I understand this correctly, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the running totals of overall value for the 4 players in question is: Burrell 39.6, Ramirez 31.4, Dunn 25.8, and Winn 20.9?
So .. Dave.. should the Mariners try to bring back Winn this offseason if Raul leaves as a free agent or Raul agrees to DH ?
While we are at it, can M’s also bring back Cameron – so that we can have that dream outfield again, which is perfectly suited for their flyball pitchers like Washburn 🙂
I know, no one believes this, but it’s true. Randy Winn is a better baseball player, right now, than Manny Ramirez.
This is very difficult to digest and seems non-agreeable even if try.
If I bring in Manny to my team:
1) he will be Manny and will kill the opposing pitchers
2) he will protect the guys batting above and below in the lineup (even though SABRmetric studies does not agree on the value of protection, I dont agree with that personally – look at SFO gaints run in 2002 after Dusty baker moved Kent to hit ahead of Bonds midway thru the season)
3) opposing pitchers have to work harder to get Manny out
4) opposting pitchers pitch counts might become higher with Manny in the lineup as they may pitch around him etc
5) opposition has to develop a game plan to deal with Manny, how they are going to pitch to him, how not to let him beat them etc.
6) Manny maybe 30 runs worse than Winn in Defense, but over the course of a season with 162 games, the effect of that might not be huge
7) I am pretty sure that Sox would not gotten over the hump in 04 and 07 with Randy Winn hitting behind David Ortiz instead of Manny – u can work wonders when u put 2 hitters like Manny and Ortiz back to back – cant be done with Randy Winn
8) A great offensive player has a phychological edge for the team he plays for – and correspondingly a psychological non-edge for the opposition; a great defensive player does not have that edge IMHO (unless its a very small set of players like Torii Hunter or Ozzie Smith – once in a generation type players) – this is very difficult to prove with numbers.
9) continuing on #8 – a great offensive player will provide a much needed lift to the rest of the team – a walk off homerun or two in the course of a season could lift the spirits up for his teammates and may make the team perform better, may create better bonding and energy overall; a great defensive play might give the same “over replacement” SABR number, but it might not provide that inspiration or lift to the rest of the team – this is what is sometimes being called as “chemistry” etc – SABR refuses to acknowledge it, but its there.
Because of positive effects like this (called X factors) the Manny Ramirez of the world will always be huge compared to Randy Winns; whether that helps explain the 20 million $ vs 8 million $ differnce – no, it does not. The SABR numbers prove that Manny should not be paid so much, but lesser. It also shows that a team missing a OF piece need not always spend big bucks to go after Mannies, it has cheaper alternatives who can provide similar value to an extent.
The key is to recognize and appreciate the fact that GREAT offensive players like Manny bring more the plate overall – and that counts a LOT in professional sports.