When it comes to projections, I am and have been fairly confident and content with the offensive variety. Measuring offense is by no means a solved problem, but we have very good approximations and given the sample sizes and independent nature of offense, not only can we measure it well, but it stabilizes and projects well. Honestly, I think the most exciting front in offensive analysis is further enhancement of park factors, which actually is a pervasive effect and not limited solely to hitters.

Dave Allen touched on my crusade on the pitching front already. I am a big proponent of looking at pitchers on a per-pitch level. In addition to studying pitch types and their subsequent metrics (e.g. velocity), I advocate studying the result types of those pitches. A pitcher’s strikeout rate shows a strong correlation with his swinging strike rate, and little to no correlation with his called strike rate. Correlation does not imply causation, but swinging strike rate is one of my favorite one-stop metrics to glance at when looking for either breakout or regression candidates. When the strikeouts and missed bat rates are out of whack, I look for a change in the coming year.

Offense and pitching are not the only parts of projections, though. Here at FanGraphs you are given the chance to project defensive adequacy as well. That is a tricky issue. Defensive data is among the noisiest of all facets of the game. The standard rule of thumb is that three years of defensive data is needed in order to equal the confidence level of a single year of hitting data. Naturally then, a three-year weighted average of UZR data appears to be the best way to project next year’s figures, but beware of that simplicity.

The issue is that three years is a long time and it is important to note that how a player fields at age 25 is going to be different, perhaps vastly so, than at age 28, for one example. When you get into later seasons, it can be even more treacherous. Aging curve studies in fielding done so far seem to point to fielding being a skill that peaks early in a player’s career. When projecting defense, take care to remember that one year is a poor sample and that next year is probably going to be worse than the years prior.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.
4th, Ken Griffey Jr. -66.9 runs to average.
3rd, Jermaine Dye -80.6 runs to average.
2nd, Brad Hawpe -101.1 runs to average.

Tonight, the worst player from 2007-9: OF Adam Dunn.

In a remarkable come from behind loss, Adam Dunn managed to out suck Brad Hawpe right at the finish line to steal this title from him. Though Dunn cannot claim to be as consistently poor as Hawpe, he can lay claim to the single worst season by UZR in this covered period.

Adam Dunn’s -46.2 runs to average in 2009 not only edged out Hawpe’s -43.6 from 2008 and Griffey’s -37.1 from 2007 as the worst overall season, but he managed the biggest gap between leader and second place in any category since Barry Bonds last played. As previously mentioned, Brad Hawpe was the second worst fielder in 2009. His fielding was -27 runs below average. Adan Dunn (-46.2) was nearly 20 runs worse than that. 20 runs, almost two whole wins worth of extra bad.

Of course, Dunn’s terrible was not limited to just 2009 or else he would not be atop this esteemed list of iron gloves even with his astounding 2009 figure. His 2008 was up to snuff as well, finishing second to Hawpe at -35.9 runs and he was the sixth worst aggregate fielder in 2007 leading to his total of -108.1 runs against average for the three seasons combined.

Adam Dunn is so bad in the field that he loses roughly two wins of value by not being a DH. And that includes factoring in the hitting penalty faced by full time DHs. His contract is not a bad one, it’s just a comically bad match although there is something poetic about seeing lineups with Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman manning the infield corners.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.
4th, Ken Griffey Jr. -66.9 runs to average.
3rd, Jermaine Dye -80.6 runs to average.

Tonight, the second worst player from 2007-9: OF Brad Hawpe.

As big of a fall as it was from Griffey and Bay to Jermaine Dye, it’s an even bigger fall down to Brad Hawpe. Brad Hawpe is the Chase Utley of bad, riding a remarkably consistent stretch of awful fielding to a whopping -101.1 total runs below average.

Hawpe finished with the second worst total in both of 2007 and 2009 and was by himself atop the 2008 all-awful leader board. His range ratings have been bottom of the barrel for some time now. His terrific arm managed to push him above average in 2006 as he recorded 16 assists. He’s never come close to repeating that total since and his range has deteriorated further, so that his three year total reached this vaunted triple digit club.

Hawpe’s value is vastly inflated thanks to the continuing under appreciation of defense and the still understated effect of parks. Most people see the solid average (.283 career) and four consecutive seasons with 20 plus home runs. Some even see the OBPs above .380 and OPS above .879 for each of said four seasons leading to wOBAs of .376 to .389 from 2006-9. Once you park-adjust those numbers, however, they drop to providing just about 20 runs above average, runs that are taken away — and then some — by his defense. All told, Brad Hawpe has averaged 0.6 WAR in the three years covered in this ranking.

Trade rumors surfaced this past July concerning Hawpe but were quickly denied by the Colorado front office. Now with an entire winter to work with, the Rockies would really benefit from shopping Hawpe’s name around, especially to American League teams, to see if someone would bite. After all, his contract ($7.5M next year, $10M option in 2011) is not bad, even considering his defensive deficiencies. As a DH, Hawpe would probably gain a half win or so in value, and who knows, maybe there is a team out there that values Hawpe as an outfielder. Either way, the Rockies should explore finding someone more suited to patrol their spacious outfield.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.
4th, Ken Griffey Jr. -66.9 runs to average.

Tonight, the third worst player from 2007-9: OF Jermaine Dye.

It’s a big gap from Bay and Griffey, in the mid-60s runs below average, to Dye, who racked up an astounding 80.6 runs below average over the last three seasons.

Dye has been an enigma at the plate the past few seasons, posting a .417 wOBA in 2006, then a .343 in 2007 followed by a rebound back up to .376 and then a downfall back to .344 this past season. In the field, however, it’s been a smoothly consistent four years of suck. Dye’s UZRs in that time frame: -22.5, -21.6, -19.4 and -18.7. Hey, he’s improving! By 2025, he’ll be up to average.

Seriously, though, he flat out stinks and his unpredictable offense makes him a poor overall value. If he could mash like he did in 2006, that would be one thing; he managed a 3.2 WAR that year. But since then, he’s been worth 0.9 WAR combined in three seasons as his bat has dropped off.

As for 2010, Dye has a reportedly mutual option with the White Sox, who now also have room for him at DH with the end of Jim Thome’s contract. At 36 years of age, it is highly unlikely that Dye will be worth anywhere near the $12 million owed to him in the option. It is also highly unlikely that Dye would be able to come close to that on the free market, so it would be wise of him to exercise it if he has such a choice. If so, we might yet see him on this list next year.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.

Tonight, the fourth worst player from 2007-9: OF Ken Griffey Jr.

Griffey managed to get himself on this list despite spending nearly all of 2009 riding the bench or in the DH role; that is how bad he was in 2007 and 2008. His 37.1 runs below average in 2007 was, by far, the worst total in baseball that year — a whopping seven runs worst than the next competitor. 2008 was not as bad, though a small part of that was thanks to a reduction in defensive playing time, from 133 games in the field in 2007 to 123 in 2008. The Mariners in 2009 finally got it right by using him just 11 times in the field; though, of course, he still suffered from the DH penalty as far as positional adjustment goes.

On top of all the horrible fielding, Griffey’s bat hasn’t been up to the task of justifying his playing time since 2005. Since that season, he has accumulated 2,124 plate appearances with which he has brought back 0.3 wins above replacement in value. Unfortunately, his best offensive season, 2007, was paired with his worst defensive season, making him still barely above replacement level.

Having had his swan song return to Seattle this past season, and still dealing with numerous knee issues despite being a platooned DH, the overarching probability has to be that Griffey retires this off season. With time, the memories of how he ended his career defensively will fade and his reputation from the 1990s will be what lives on, warranted or not.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

Tonight, the start of the bottom five, with the fifth worst, OF Jason Bay.

To start with, here’s how bad the bad group has been. You can see above the runs that the good group amassed over average, topped with Chase Utley with 54.8 runs. There were nine players that had a higher absolute run value on the negative side.

Jason Bay leads off this series with his 64.9 runs below average. His defense is so bad in such a non-premium defensive position that he was merely a replacement level player in 2007 when his bat disappeared.

Luckily for Pittsburgh, Bay’s bat did return in 2008 and the Pirates dealt him off to Boston in a deal that involved Manny Ramirez, himself one of the worst fielders in the game. Bay has maintained his resumption of good hitting and Fenway Park has helped, providing him with a sympathetic park for right-handed sluggers. That Bay has been able to be a three-win player the last two seasons despite fielding so poorly in left field as to start him off in a -25 run hole speaks to his bat and durability.

Jason Bay enters free agency this winter and one has to wonder how long he goes before he ends up in a DH role. With his high level of offensive output and at only 31 years of age, Bay is going to fetch a high price and contract. Be wary, National League teams.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.

Tonight, the best player from 2007-9: 2B Chase Utley.

Consistent greatness is Chase Utley‘s calling card. His wOBAs from 2005 through 2009 have all been inside the range of .389 to .420. His UZRs during that stretch vary only from +9.8 to +20.5. In the last five seasons, Chase Utley’s worst season, 2006, had him as a 6.8 WAR player. His best, 2008, he was an 8.1 WAR player.

For five seasons Chase Utley (38 total wins) has been just a smidgen less valuable than Albert Pujols (40.4 total wins) has been. Thank goodness that he is losing his mind in this World Series because hopefully now he’ll start getting more credit. He’s been close to the best player in baseball over the last half-decade and how many people would have included him in the top ten?

Utley’s 54.8 runs above average came in nearly equal portions each season. His 17.6 runs was 11th best in 2007, his 22.8 runs was the overall best in 2008 and his 14.4 runs was 18th best this past year.

By the way, with the pretty big caveat that the 2009 awards have yet to be announced, I find it worth pointing out that none of the top five players for the period of 2007-9 have won a Gold Glove in that period. Hopefully the 2009 slate rectifies that.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.

Tonight, the second best player from 2007-9: OF Franklin Gutierrez.

Gutierrez only got in a half-season in 2007 and three-quarters of a season in 2008. None of that mattered thanks to his outrageous 2009 season. Not to dismiss 2007 or 2008 as irrelevant. They certainly pointed out how good with the glove Gutierrez was and lend us some additional credence for the ridiculous 2009 figure. In 2007, Gutierrez posted a +1.0 UZR for every 70 innings fielded. In 2008, that ratio was one run for every 45 innings. That actually fell to one run for every 47 innings this past season, but that it was accomplished over a full season and in center field rather than right makes it all the more impressive.

To try and put into context just how amazing Franklin Gutierrez’s 2009 season was, here are two figures. First, his combined 30.9 runs in 2009 was the best in baseball by 5.5 runs. His defense was worth half a win more than anyone else’s. Furthermore, the 30.9 was the highest individual season mark in the entire 2007-9 sample. And that 30.9 figure, taken alone would have been good enough for 27th on our three-year list.

Simply by taking the field and playing defense, Gutierrez totaled over five wins of value. That he added some value with his bat, as a right-handed hitter in Safeco Field no less, was pure cherry-flavored gravy atop the ice cream sundae of awesome that was Gutierrez’s 2009.

And as historic as that season was, and as great as that three-year period was, it wasn’t enough to make Gutierrez our top ranked fielder from 2007-9. Edging him out by just over a run per season is the next profile.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.

Tonight, the third best player from 2007-9: SS J.J. Hardy.

Hardy’s inclusion should not be too much of a surprise. Unlike the previous two profiles, Hardy does not have much in the ways of peaks or valleys in UZR. Instead, he is rather consistent with UZRs — always in the level a tad more elevated than simply “above average.”

Like the other shortstop, Vizquel, however, Hardy’s future on this list is murky. His hitting took such a dramatic turn for the worst this past season, from a .355 wOBA in 2008 to a .292 wOBA in 2009, that he lost playing time to Alcides Escobar and was even optioned back to Triple-A. One consequence of that demotion is that Hardy’s free agent status was postponed by a year, making him quite a bit more valuable.

Whether he stays with Milwaukee this off season will be seen, but he should make for an attractive trade target, and given that some of his offensive woes can be traced to a poor BABIP, Hardy deserves a starting job somewhere. His defense alone makes him worth his cost, and if his bat returns, so should the four-win seasons that he posted in 2007 and 2008.

At 48.7 runs above average, J.J. Hardy is our last player among the top five that did not eclipse the 50-run marker. Stay tuned for the second-best, and our lone outfielder, tomorrow.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously I covered the fifth best, Ryan Zimmerman and his 43.7 runs above average. Tonight, the fourth best player from 2007-9: SS Omar Vizquel.

It’s pretty remarkable that even during a period of time that covers his age 40-42 seasons, Vizquel still outperformed so many others on the defensive field. Also remarkable is that Vizquel amassed the needed counting numbers in just 299 games over the three year period.

Granted, Vizquel is on this list because of his terrific performance in 2007. He posted a 20.2 UZR that year in 143 games at shortstop for the Giants. Of his total 45.8 runs, 26.9 came from that year alone. He was also so poor with the bat that year (.621 OPS, .276 wOBA) that it canceled out his entire contribution from his stellar defensive play and positional adjustment.

If I repeat this next winter, it is clear that Vizquel will be nowhere near the top. He’ll lose out on his fabulous 2007 season and if he even plays this coming season, it’s going to be in an even further reduced role. Still, it’s been a remarkably long career for a player with one of the best reputations for glove work in recent memory.