With the number of games remaining for teams dwindling into a single digit territory, I thought it a decent time to evaluate the possible postseason match ups that we will be viewing this coming October. Lets start in the American League.

Three of the four playoff spots are all but fixed at this point. New York will win the East, Anaheim the West and Boston the Wild Card. Because of the rule preventing the team with the best record in the league, which will be New York, from playing the Wild Card team if said team is from their division, which Boston is, New York gets the benefit of playing the lower win totaled team that captures the AL Central crown.

Boston will face off against the Angels in the Divisional Series for the fourth time. Each previous time, 2004 (sweep), 2007 (sweep) and 2008 (3 games to 1) was won by Boston. Will the Angels be able to overcome their first round nemesis this season?

The Yankees meanwhile, who have a Divisional Series bug of themselves to boot having not advanced past the first round in their last three trips to the postseason, will face off against either the Detroit Tigers in a rematch of the 2006 ALDS or the Minnesota Twins in a rematch of the 2003 and 2004 ALDS’ which were both won by New York, who hasn’t won a Divisional Series since.

As for which team might present a tougher task to New York, the Twins and Tigers are remarkably evenly matched in value this year. I guess that’s not much of a surprise given their nearly identical records, but when you consider how often it seems the won-loss records are out of whack with the team’s underlying performances, I was interested it note the combined hitters (includes defense) + pitchers WAR for the two teams:
Tigers: 20.9 + 14.8 = 35.7
Twins: 19.2 + 15.4 = 34.6

Neither team is markedly stronger than the other and it would come down to simple matchups and which team might benefit more from the dropped 5th starter in the playoffs.

The rumors and bits of information had been floating around for a few days and weeks now. Really, it was no surprise that the subject was coming up. Aged 68, and in his 20th consecutive season as manager of the Braves, people have been wondering how much longer Bobby Cox would be around inside the Atlanta clubhouse.

Today, we got official word from the man himself. Cox will return next season as head coach and then retire after the 2010 season, remaining with the team as a consultant for at least the next five years.

Cox ascended to the Major League manager role at just 36, in 1978 when he first took over the Braves and was there until fired by owner Ted Turner after the 1981 season. Cox went on to manager the Toronto Blue Jays for four years and then in 1986 returned to Atlanta as the General Manager.

Four years after that, and Cox re-took over the job as Manager and solidified his legacy in the city. Cox’s first full season back at the helm saw the Braves go from worst to first as grab a playoff spot and ultimately a World Series berth, lost to the Twins in seven games. That would be year one of fourteen consecutive division titles, lasting until the 2006 season.

It’s going to be difficult to think of the Braves without Bobby Cox who next year will tie Tommy Lasorda in 4th place for most seasons managing a single team. It’s been a good run for you Bobby. Although those who place premiums of the randomness of winning in the postseason might say otherwise, I find it hard to sneeze at such consistence quality as your 1990s and early 2000s run displayed.

Once against thanks to a helpful reader tip, I am here to present a possibly interesting nugget of baseball trivia. Three true outcome hitters are known for their high power and high totals in walks and strikeouts. Principally, the high strikeout and walk totals typically force them to carry low batting averages and their high power usually means a high number of home runs.

One interesting offshoot of that would be a player going so far to the extreme that he actually hits more home runs than singles. How extreme is this? Well, the complete list, as best as I can tell (Baseball-Reference’s Play Index makes me figure this out circuitously) of all such seasons since 1901 in which a batter appeared at least 200 times and had more, or at least as many, home runs than singles looks like this:

1995 Mark McGwire, 39 HRs, 35 1Bs
1998 Mark McGwire, 70 HRs, 61 1Bs
1999 Mark McGwire, 65 HRs, 58 1Bs
2000 Mark McGwire, 32 HRs, 32 1Bs
2001 Mark McGwire, 29 HRs, 23 1Bs
2001 Barry Bonds, 73 HRs, 49 1Bs

Remarkable. I searched far and wide and could not find a single other player to do it since the turn of the 20th century. A few, like Frank Thomas in 2005, managed it in small samples, or came close like Ken Griffey Jr. did in 2003 and Eddie Robinson in 1955.

Well, we have something to pay attention to for the rest of the season because entering play today, we have this:

2009 Carlos Pena, 37 HRs, 35 1Bs

As if you needed another reason to pay attention to an AL East team.

Yesterday, I talked about Johan Santana who is now undergoing season-ending surgery on his elbow and how his contract looks going forward. Since that piece went out, two more New York Mets’ pitchers have been shut down for the season to undergo surgery.

J.J. Putz, acquired from the Mariners this past winter as part of the dramatic bullpen makeover that was supposed to be the cure to the 2007 and 2008 collapses certainly was not up the task that he was brought in for. A combination of injuries and ineffectiveness doomed his year. Putz was already well into his decline, seeing his strikeout rate fall from 34% in 2006 to 30% in 2007 to 26% in 2008, all before he was traded off. It was nearly halved this year to just 14%.

In addition to the lack of strikeouts, Putz, who battled injuries all through 2008 as well, now has two consecutive years of injury-shaken control to overcome along with the heavy task of just getting healthy. Putz’s option is almost certain not to be exercised and thus he will depart from the Mets having been paid roughly $6 million and contributed a negligible amount above replacement level.

In addition to Putz, Oliver Perez is undergoing surgery on his knee and is done for the season. 58 walks in 66 innings pitched this season and according to both FIP and tRA, Perez was worth -0.7 wins above replacement in 2009, the first year of his horrible 3-year, $36-million contract. Unsurprisingly, Perez’s velocity was down, his average fastball down to the slowest level yet, at just 90mph. I was critical of the deal when it was signed for many reasons, Perez’s injury risk one of those factors. Forget about breaking even on this deal, I think the Mets would be lucky to get back $10 million total once all is said and done.

All told, between the two, the Mets dished out $17 million dollars for about -$3 million in value.

Mere hours after R.J. wrote about the possibility of Johan Santana headed for minor surgery, it was confirmed by the New York Mets that he would. The surgery is to remove bone chips from Santana’s left elbow and will end his 2009 season, but should have him ready for 2010 Spring Training according to the Mets.

Johan’s contract with the Mets guaranteed him $137.5 million over six years (with $5 million per year deferred reducing its value by about $2 million in present day terms) with a team (with incentives that make it a player) option for a seventh year at an additional $19.5 million.

One third of the way through the locked in portions of the contract and the Mets have paid out roughly $35 million in present day money and received back $34.7 in value, a shockingly on the nose figure. The problem for the Mets are:

A) Johan is already 30
B) He is now a worse re-injury risk
C) His contract payments escalate

In essence, since the Mets paid and Johan played even amounts so far, it can be viewed as the Mets inking to Santana to a four-year, $90.5 million deal this winter. How would that deal rank? A lot of that depends on how the projection systems like Santana for 2010 which we do not know yet, but can make an educated guess at.

Johan’s 2009 season has been quite similar to his 2008. The strikeouts are down a hair, the walks up a hair, but combined they amount to just a 0.1 change in ratio from 3.27 K/BB last year to 3.17 this year. The ground balls fell off and as a result, the home runs have risen. Those three indicators would suggest a higher predicted for 2010 than he received in 2009, which came out to about a 3.50 average FIP. Let us peg him for a 3.60 FIP for now (this is probably being generous to Santana).

The other major expectation will be innings pitched. Coming off an injury and just 166.2 innings pitched, the projections are not going to be up in the 200-220 innings pitched range as they were for this season. 185 innings seems a decent estimate to me, though again perhaps a touch favorable to Santana.

185 innings of 3.60 FIP comes out to about 4.25 wins, a figure that would be worth a little under $20 million per year in today’s financial climate. For the four years left on Johan’s deal, we would be expecting him to sign for something between $70 and $75 million.

On May 1st, the Dodgers stood at 16-8 and already had a 3.5 game lead in the NL West, at the time over the 11-10 San Francisco Giants. By June 1st, the lead had grown to 8 as the Giants remained in second place and one game over .500 at 25-24 while the Dodgers had also kept up their pace and were now 35-18.

By July 1st, the Giants were showing some life, now at seven games over .500, but they remained a meaningful seven games back of the Dodgers and chipping away at a one-game-per-month pace was going to put the Giants in good position come February of 2011. The Rockies roared to life in July and by August 1st, they were tied with the Giants at 57-47, but both teams remained seven games back of the Dodgers with now just 58 games left to play. The odds seemed, and were, grim.

It is August 20th and I just saw a question pop up about whether the Dodgers were choking in the NL West. It is difficult to accuse them of choking when they are still 21 games over .500 at 71-50 currently, but they are 7-11 in the month of August and their lead has been halved to just 3.5 games over the Rockies and 4.5 over the Giants. Ominous signs right?

Well, maybe, but in terms of probability, not really. Here is a timeline (x-axis. Note: in days, not games played) chart of each of the three teams’ odds of winning the NL West (y-axis):

You see, the Dodgers are still hovering around the 80% odds that they have been at for the past 60 days or so. Why? Well, for one, even through their lead has shrunk by 3.5 games, they still own a 3.5 game lead and instead of 58 games to play, there is now just 40 games left to play. The shrinking window of opportunity helps keep some of the Dodgers chances afloat, but that is not the main reason they remain such clear favorites.

The main reason is simply this. In 18 games played in August, the Dodgers have won 7 and lost 11, but they have scored 87 runs and allowed just 69, a run differential that you would expect to reverse that 7-11 record. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six extra-inning games and 1-7 in their last eight one-run games. They have been unlucky, but they are still the same juggernaut in the West that they have been all season. The Rockies and Giants are making excellent plays for the Wild Card, but both teams still have a long road ahead to pass the Dodgers for the division crown.

Vicente Padilla was designated for assignment last Friday. The Rangers were accorded ten days to try and work out a trade, but are seemingly cutting ties with the enigmatic pitcher far in advance of that deadline as they have reportedly released Padilla. He is expected to clear release waivers within the next 48 hours and then be declared a free agent. In doing so, the Rangers are forced to eat a little over $5 million combined between the remaining salary for this year and Padilla’s $1.75M option for 2010.

Padilla, if you have forgotten, was traded to Texas originally from Philadelphia in December of 2005, in exchange for Ricardo Rodriguez a pitcher who never even threw a meaningful pitch for the Phillies organization at any level before getting released. Rodriguez has subsequently been signed and dropped by the Braves, Cardinals, Marlins and Pirates with his five month stint with Florida marking his longest tenure amongst the five NL organizations. He must have some really irritating clubhouse habits or something.

Meanwhile, Vicente Padilla went on to have a banner year with the Rangers, winning 15 games and posting a 4.50 ERA and 4.26 FIP. His numbers, though, were not exactly surprising, just his innings pitched total was, finally reaching 200. Padilla was rewarded with a 3-year, $33.75-million contract and the aforementioned club option for 2010.

Expected to provide a second punch behind Kevin Millwood in the Rangers rotation, Padilla promptly went out and pitched the worst statistical season of his career, a 5.26 FIP and the disappearance of his missed bats leading to a cratered strikeout rate. The strikeouts came back last year, but along with them came more fly balls and more home runs. While Padilla managed to correct the fly balls this season, he completely lost the strikeouts, down to under 5 per 9IP.

For their $33.75 million investment, one many critics panned at the time, the Rangers netted back 3.9 wins, worth $17.6 million in value according to our measurements. The Rangers paid about $8.7 million per win on Padilla’s contract which just goes to show that maybe you should reconsider giving big money deals to pitchers once referred to as among the league’s dumbest.

Bill Bavasi, the gift that keeps on giving. I will spare you the second line to that reference.

Today, it shines through truer than yesterday as the exploratory surgery on Erik Bedard’s shoulder by Dr. Lewis Yocum revealed an inflamed bursa sac, which was no surprise given the symptoms, and a torn labrum, which was no surprise but still a colossal disappointment.

Bedard now has to wait four to six months before resuming any baseball-related activities. Shoulder issues are a steep hill to overcome and Bedard will have to start from scratch around February assuming no further set backs. The amount of time to rehab and build up strength again means mid to late 2010 is likely Bedard’s best case return date. We have a winner already for 2010’s version of Ben Sheets.

30 starts, 164 innings pitched. That is what the Mariners got out of Erik Bedard over his final two years of club control. That is what the Mariners got out of Erik Bedard because Bill Bavasi traded Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, George Sherrill and Kameron Mickolio. It would be easy for Mariner fans and reporters to blame Erik Bedard. I, for one, cannot see how this is any bit his fault. By all accounts, he tried his hardest to compete for the team but his body failed him. And then he kept on trying, pitching through what was diagnosed as a shoulder cyst last year and a torn labum this year.

Perhaps amazingly, given the degree to which we know now he was operating, Bedard still managed to post extremely good numbers when he was on the mound with the Mariners. The talent and stuff is undeniable, but for teams that were already going to be gunshy about giving the notorious fragile Bedard a contract this winter, a torn labrum might send them to Mark Prior before they give any more attention Erik’s way.

A sad day.

I went into the history of the 500 home run club yesterday and as part of that, I was looking into potential future members of the club. That investigation evolved into a longer post, one I think worthy of its own standing.

Looking at the immediate future, Carlos Delgado, with 473 career home runs, is in line to become the first member of the 500 home run club from the 2010s pending his recovery from hip surgery. After Delgado, the next members on the current active list over 400 are Chipper Jones, who is tough to gauge given his age, Jason Giambi, who has no chance and Vladimir Guerrero, who seems highly unlikely given his age and advancing level of injury. Does Chipper make it? He will probably be 70 away after this season and on a low 20s per year average at the age of 37. If he does pass it, it looks like it would be in his age 41 season, assuming no further drop off in power.

Among players in the 300-400 current list, Albert Pujols is almost a given to make it. Though remember when Andruw Jones seemed like a lock as well? Not so anymore. After Pujols, you have to go all the way down to Adam Dunn at 308 before turning 30. Dunn is likely to fall off fast when he goes, but three more 40-homer seasons gets him to about 440 and that should be close enough to withstand even a mid-30s breakdown.

The further down the home run list you go, the younger the player needs to be. Mark Teixeira is over 70 home runs behind Dunn at the same age, but if New Yankee Stadium maintains its reputation as homer friendly, Tex has some other skills besides power that could help him hold off decline until his late 30s and if so, that should buy him enough time to get in. Ryan Howard is an even longer shot, but if he could go post another 200 home runs in the next four seasons might get himself in the running. Big if though.

Miguel Cabrera is playing in a pitcher friendly park and does not seem the best bet to age well so I would be highly skeptical of his chances to reach 500, needing to average 30 a year (his career average) for the next decade to reach it. The furthest player out that I would feel even remotely comfortable projecting to get near the mark is Prince Fielder. Fielder’s good command of the strike zone might enable him to play for the required time that he will need.

After a decade of sluggers mushrooming the list 25, the 2010s are almost certain to look more like the 80s or 90s with just two or three players crashing the gate.

80 years ago today, on August 11, 1929, Babe Ruth stepped in against Willis Hudlin and hit his 30th home run of the season, on his way to 46 that season. That home run also marked the 500th of Ruth’s career, the first time (by a wide margin) that anyone in Major League history reached that feat.

Ruth would remain alone on that list until Jimmie Foxx joined him on September 24, 1940 off George Caster. Mel Ott would become the third member of that club August 1st, 1945, two weeks before the official end of World War II. Nobody else would reach 500 home runs in their career, likely at least in part due to the service time during World War II and Korea, until Ted Williams did it in 1960. Williams remains to this day the oldest player to reach 500 home runs, doing so at nearly 42 years of age.

The 1960s saw, in addition to Williams, the entrance of Willie Mays (1965), Mickey Mantle (1967), Eddie Matthews (1967) and Hank Aaron (1968) in perhaps the greatest decade of hitting talent that is still revered today. Williams is commonly regarded as the best pure hitter of all time, Aaron the best non-tainted slugger (yet), Mays perhaps the most valuable hitter (combining his offense with his center field play) and obviously Matthews and Mantle are well regarded as well, though Matthews sometimes seems lost in the shuffle more than he should.

Three more players joined in the first two years of the 1970s: Ernie Banks (1970), Harmon Killebrew (1971) and Frank Robinson a month after Harmon. All told, between September 13th, 1965 (Mays) and September 13th, 1971 (Robinson), seven players hit their 500th career home run. Seven, in six years. Remember that.

Things really slowed down after that with Willie McCovey coming next in 1978, Reggie Jackson in 1984, Mike Schmidt in 1987 and Eddie Murray in 1996. And then came the steroid-era sluggers. Over the just-under-ten-year period from August 5th, 1999 (when Mark McGwire hit number 500) and April 17th, 2009 (when the latest member, Gary Sheffield, joined), ten players (those two included) made it past 500 all time home runs.

This era is largely being remembered for it lessening the importance of the 500 home run club. That is understandable in the sense that we now view most everything from the 1990s and 2000s with an air of suspicion and that the list of members did grow from 15 to its present 25 in just ten years. However, looking back to the 1965-71 period, does ten new members in ten years look much different than seven in six years?