Earlier, I went through the actual, run differential and BaseRuns standings of the top three in the AL East and came out with three different positions for each team one through three, depending on the method. Today I am looking at discrete units of each team (pitching, defense, offense) with our best available metrics, in my opinion, and see where the teams stack up.

First up, pitching. We use FIP here at FanGraphs and I am also partial to tRA as you may have noticed, so I will list both. Based off FIP, FanGraphs lists the Red Sox pitching staff at 18.8 wins above replacement, the Rays at 11.6 and the Yanks at 11.4. tRA only reports runs against average, and it has Boston at 68.8, Tampa at -13.9 and New York at -21.4. Either way, we have the Red Sox well out in front, through tRA sees a larger gulf between them and the other two teams.

For defense, we make use of UZR here on FanGraphs. The Rays lead the three teams with a 38.8 runs above average mark, third best in all the Majors. The Yankees are at -14.7 runs and the Red Sox are dead last at -29.8 runs. That certainly helps to level the playing field between the teams when it comes to the runs allowed department.

For offense, I will list two methods. The first is the baserunning-included version of wOBA presented here on FanGraphs. Factoring in positional and replacement level adjustments, done automatically, we have the following figures for runs above replacement

wOBA
BOS – 173.6
NYA – 246.4
TBA – 217.7

Another method to estimate run scoring ability would be to look at just that half of the BaseRuns output, which gives us these readings

BaseRuns
BOS – 560
NYA – 613
TBA – 589

Do not worry about converting one to another. Here is what sounds like delicious agreement between the two systems. The Yankees are tops in both, followed by Tampa in both, 28.7 runs behind by wOBA, 24 runs behind by BaseRuns. Boston is in the rear, 72.8 runs behind New York by wOBA, 53 by BaseRuns. 20 runs is a bit more than I would like to see in difference for perfect agreement, but it is pretty solid.

Adding it all together looks like this. By FIP, UZR and wOBA (the three listed here on FanGraphs) we would expect to see:
Tampa, —
New York, 1.5
Boston, 3.5

By tRA, UZR and BaseRuns, we arrive at:
Tampa, —
Boston, 1.0
New York, 4.0

That is a lot of different standings to look at so consider this a summation. Apart from actual wins and losses, Tampa always rates favorably, as either the divison leader or a close second (and Tampa has since taken over the run differential lead from Boston after last night’s game). Who deserves second place between Boston and New York is much harder to figure and essentially is a toss up. No matter which system you use, all three teams are within striking distance and that should make this a real exciting pennant drive as they fight for a likely, and maximum, two playoff spots.

Keeping in theme today at FanGraphs with the look at teams in general, I decided to take a look into the AL East and examine how the three contenders, Boston, New York and Tampa have performed so far to date.

First of all, we have the traditional benchmark, won loss record. At time of writing, they look as follows:
New York, 65-42, —
Boston RS, 62-44, 2.5
Tampa Bay, 60-48, 5.5

Looking at run differential paints a slightly different picture:
Boston RS, 63-43, —
Tampa Bay, 63-45, 1.0
New York, 61-46, 2.5

Run differential does not tell the whole story however, as there are various other factors, namely luck, that can still skew results this far into the season. Instead, I like to look at a couple other measures. One is straight BaseRuns. If you are not familair with the model, here is a decent starting point.

BaseRuns concludes that Boston has been really lucky at keeping runs off the board, that the Rays have been a touch unlucky at plating runs and that the Yankees have been very slightly unlucky on both ends. BaseRuns would set the standings as follows:
Tampa Bay, 64-44, —
New York, 63-44, 0.5
Boston RS, 59-47, 4.0

Three measurements, three different leaders. In fact, each team appears in each possible spot in the respected order. We can introduce a fourth method here, looking at discrete units of the team (pitching, defense, offense) with our best metrics and see where the teams stack up. That will be part 2.

A huge blow was hit to the Reds this week as Edinson Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery today and it was reported that his UCL ligament was “almost completely torn”. Given the timing of the surgery, Volquez should be able to return in some form next season, but beyond just the immediate return, it is not unusual for pitchers to need more time to fully regain their velocity and command to pre-injury levels. Thus, Volquez’s ability to meaningfully contribute to the 2010 Reds season is in serious doubt now.

Volquez was a four win pitcher last season, but struggled mightily with his command this season. Whereas he had previously hung around 48 to 49% of his pitches inside the strike zone, this year that fell to just 41%, a massive drop and a level not conducive to any kind of sustained success. That was the primary culprit behind Volquez’s increase in walk rate, to nearly six per nine.

If Volquez is able to return to the command he displayed in 2007 he could come back to being a big piece of the Reds’ playoff hopes, but that is not going to happen in 2010. How does the Scott Rolen trade look now to the front office?

The diagnosis and surgery came about two months after Volquez was placed on the disabled list with soreness in his elbow. He was cleared to throw twice and had even made it through bullpen sessions to the point of a simulated game before being shut down for good. Given the reported extent of the tear, one has to wonder if an MRI done initially in June would not have revealed the tear in a more minor state and saved the Reds at least a couple months of rehab time, if not many more.

Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz had their names leaked this morning as being part of the list of MLB players that tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003 during what was supposed to be a secret test conducted by Major League Baseball to find out the extent of the problem. They are not the first, proceeded by Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez among others. For Ortiz’s part, he did confirm that he was informed that he was on the list.

Ortiz was supposed to be one of those names that would elicit a big reaction from the baseball fandom at large. Roughly 12 hours after the news first started breaking, it seems that the expected reaction amongst fans is far more tepid that the one the media forecasted. Big surprise there as it certainly appears that fans, for the most part, simply do not care anymore. Ortiz did not let the media storm deter him from leading the Red Sox comeback win over Oakland in Boston today.

I am not writing to discuss what should be done about the 2004 record books, or anything like that. It is my, unsubstantiated, belief that a large portion of baseball (and football and basketball and and and…) players were juicing in some form or another. And that includes pitchers as well as hitters before you start mouthing off about how home run records from the era all need to be asterisked.

I did want to point out though that probably the best result for MLB at this point would be if that entire 2003 list was leaked at once. That way the media could handle it all in one news cycle and be done with it instead of names getting floated out piecemeal every couple of months to start the story anew. Of course, MLB itself cannot just release the list as per conditions of getting players to agree to the test in the first place, but I wonder if there is not a way for MLB to engineer a way for the list to become public knowledge while avoiding liability.

Whatever happens, I am glad that the reactions that I have been reading and hearing since the news broke has mostly been one of uncaring. Let us move on already.

The Associated Press noted today that an exam on Randy Johnson’s throwing shoulder Monday revealed some tearing in his rotator cuff. Johnson, who already had not played since July 5th when he hurt the shoulder batting of all things, was moved to the 60-day disabled list making him eligible to return September 5th.

It is unclear at this point how major the tearing is, but obviously any tearing in the rotator cuff is not a good sign. Surgery was apparently discussed and decided against at this point, likely in the hopes that Johnson can come back and pitch a bit in September should the Giants still be in the playoff race.

It is worth noting that Johnson this year has managed to remain close to his old self. The strikeouts are down, the walks up, but his real downfall has been a spike in home run rate. All that said, though, his xFIP of 3.83 and tRA* of 4.40 both show him to be better than league average still.

What is even more unclear is Johnson’s future. Surgery of any type would seem likely to cut into his availability for 2010 and the rehab for a 45-year-old would be tougher than usual. Could this mark the end of Randy Johnson’s Major League career? I certainly hope not and hopefully we get some more information in the coming weeks as to the extent of the injury.

Garrett Jones was drafted by the Atlanta Braves with the last pick of the 14th round in 1999 as a first baseman out of Victor J Andrew High School in Illinois. Jones failed to do much of anything at all in three years at Rookie ball and was dropped by the Braves in 2002. A mere three days later he was picked up by the Twins and sent to A ball where he proceeded to post a .610 OPS in the Midwest League. Despite that, Minnesota advanced him to High-A the following year, 2003, and then to Double A in 2004 despite still posting sub 700 OPSs.

Something clicked in Double A though and in 122 games in New Britain, Jones flipped out to hit .311/.356/.593 with 30 bombs. The year literally came out of nowhere as his previous high was a .756 OPS he posted in his third season in Rookie ball. 2005 saw Jones moved up a level for the fourth consecutive year, to Rochester. Jones backslid there to a .741 OPS. For the next three years, through last season, Jones would remain starting in Triple-A, posting .733, .807 and .821 OPSs.

A Minor League free agent this winter, Jones signed with Pittsburgh and resumed his Triple-A career in Indianapolis. He continued his modest gains, hitting .307/.348/.502 until getting the call up to Pittsburgh on July 1st with the trade of Nyjer Morgan to Washington.

Given his first regular taste of starting in the big leagues, Jones has certainly seized the opportunity. To be clear, Jones is DH-material in the field, but right now his bat is doing all the talking. In 19 games so far, and 84 trips to the plate, Jones has 26 hits, a whopping 17 for extra bases including 10 of them for home runs. His seven walks to 12 strikeouts represent a career best BB/K ratio too. Jones’ current line stands at .342/.398/.842!

He is certainly not going to keep this up, but it is an really interesting story for a guy who spent three years being unable to hit his way out of Rookie Ball and four years being unable to hit his way out of Triple-A.

I have mentioned a few times about how Zack Greinke gets nowhere near enough press attention, especially for his level of success this year. Well, as far as the latter point goes, move over Greinke because here comes Felix Hernandez.

Take a look at Felix’s last eleven starts, from a Matthew point of view (that is, looking at the numbers that I care about):

I prefer tRA to FIP, but even if you do not, you should get the general picture here. A 12% swinging strike rate coupled with over 50% of batted balls being on the ground? Yee-haw!

For years and years, the Seattle blogosphere cherished and also admonished Felix Hernandez, cursing him for throwing too many fastballs, which many of us felt, and the pitch type values back up, was/is Felix’s worst offering. Which is not to say that it is bad, certainly not, but rather that it is a testament to just how good his off speed and breaking pitches are.

A funny thing happened though, instead of throwing fewer fastballs this year (64.2% versus a career mark of 60.8%), Felix has instead simply thrown better ones. It was always one of the possible paths of improvement that we in Seattle talked about, it just seemed the least likely and more difficult of the two. Perhaps throwing all those fastballs has finally paid off with improved command. We will never know. Frankly, I do not much care. I know I get to watch this guy pitch every five days or so, hopefully for a long while, and that is all I need right now.

Thanks to a reader, who pointed this out to me. Did you know that Mike Wuertz is currently accomplishing a somewhat rare feat, that of generating more swinging strikes than called strikes. Through 727 pitches to date, Wuertz has caused batters to swing and miss 144 times while getting a called strike 134 times.

Achieving this level is quite difficult to do. Among pitchers with at least 500 pitches thrown this year, only four have done it so far. Along with Wuertz, there is Russ Springer (92 swinging strikes to 81 called strikes), Brandon League (94 swinging strikes to 83 called strikes) and Rafael Betancourt (66 swinging strikes to 61 called strikes).

All four of these are relievers, which is to be expected since relief pitchers have, on average, a higher swinging strike rate than starting pitchers. It takes a really rare starter to accomplish that feat. Rich Harden last year such a starter, compiling 363 missed bats against 351 called strikes.

In general, there are usually less than ten pitchers per year that manage to out pace their called strikes with swinging strikes. And aside from Rich Harden, who also did it in 2006 and is close (222 swinging strikes, 223 called) to doing it again this year, no starting pitcher has managed to do it since 2003.

On July 14th, the Philadelphia Phillies officially signed Pedro Martinez to a one year, $1 million contract with bonuses for performance and time on the active roster. He was immediately placed on the disabled list. What kind of performance can Philadelphia expect or hope for from Pedro?

A lot will depend on his health, something we would only be able to speculate upon. What we do know is that 2008 Pedro was much worse off than previous years in several key ways. A pitcher that reliably hit the zone around 55% of the time suddenly dropped to just 50%.

What is worse is that hitters almost began making a very high percentage of contact on the pitches outside the zone, the sorts of pitches Pedro would use to generate strikeouts before were now being put into play. Naturally, that led to a big drop in strikeout rate and an increase in walk rate.

Even with those setbacks, Pedro graded out as just a slightly below average pitcher instead of horrible one that the 5.61 ERA might have suggested. His big problem was the home run. Pedro’s HR/FB jumped to over 15% in 2008, something not likely to repeat itself though pitching in Philadelphia certainly will not help.

If Pedro is fully healthy, he comes with the upside of a very good starting pitcher. If he repeats 2008, he should look like a below average starter. For roughly $2 million (over a full season) that is a pretty good gamble for the Phillies.

At the break and with the official news finally coming in that Manny Acta has been let go in Washington, I decided to take a look at which at which teams have been lucky or unlucky the most so far this season. Of course, the definition of lucky is going to be pretty subjective to people. Here is how I have defined it, and have defined it in the past as well lest there be any concerns that I gerrymandered my criteria.

I use BaseRuns, which is my favorite team-wide metric for determining expected runs allowed and scored, to come up with an expected won-loss record based on the pythagorean method (with a variable exponent based on the runs per game, namely the David Smyth/Patriot model of pythag).

That expected winning percentage is then added to the team’s strength of schedule and then 0.5 is subtracted away to get a scheduled-neutralized expected winning percentage. Multiplying that by 162 yields a BaseRuns, schedule-neutral estimate for how many games the team should win over a season if it played at its season-to-date level.

I then subtract that from the team’s actual winning percentage scaled out to 162 games to arrive a plus or minus win figure of how lucky the team has been per 162 games.

For the more math inclined,

And the rankings, from most lucky, to most unlucky:

Astros 11
Giants 10
Phillies 10
Tigers 9
Reds 9
Angels 6
Brewers 6
Red Sox 6
Marlins 6
Rangers 3
Orioles 3
Cardinals 3
White Sox 2
Cubs 1
Mets 1
Dodgers 0
Mariners 0
Yankees -1
Padres -1
Rockies -2
Braves -3
Pirates -3
Twins -5
Athletics -5
Royals -5
Blue Jays -8
Diamondbacks -8
Rays -9
Indians -11
Nationals -19