Dustin Pedroia signed a six-year, $40.5 million contract today with an option for a seventh year at a rumored, but not yet confirmed figure of $11 million. These six years buy out one club-controlled year, all three arbitration years and two free-agent seasons. Thanks to the research of many, we have a nifty general rule for average arbitration rewards that states that arbitration typically comes in at 40% the first year, 60% the second, and 80% in the final year. Because of this, we can easily figure out what the Red Sox are valuing Pedroia at.

First, let us lop off the half-million for his club-controlled year and we’re left with the three arbitration years and two market years for a price of $40 million. Since this covers Pedroia’s age 26-30 seasons, we can be pretty safe at assuming a static performance level for all five seasons. That is, lets ignore aging for now. Calling that performance level X, we have .4*X + .6*X + .8*X + 1.0*X + 1.0*X = $40M as our formula with X representing the market value that Pedroia has commanded. This simplifies to 3.8*X = 40M or just over $10.5M per season. Add back in the 10% discount that players take for long term security, divide by $4.5M per market win and the Red Sox are paying Pedroia as if he’s worth about 2.6 wins a year.

I’m not fully confident on how good Pedroia is at defense, but I think it’s safe to call him about average since I’m pretty sure that he’s not out of this world bad or insanely good (Gold Glove aside, that’s meaningless). Frankly, Pedroia’s defense would have to be butcher-level bad to make this anything less than a total steal for the Red Sox.

Pedroia was worth somewhere around four or five wins wins last year, depending on his defense. Even with the regression that should come on his bat next year, he’ll be just 25 and he seems like a sure bet to exceed three wins at minimum. In fact, the $40.5 million is quite similar to the same amount that Robinson Cano is going to get paid for the same relative time frame. Remarkable since Pedroia just came off an MVP award. Chalk another one up for Boston, who really don’t need any more help.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty seven: San Francisco Giants

Looking at the respective ranks for San Francisco’s separate units really makes it clear who were the problems for the Giants. The hitters came in 28th in the league, the starters 12th and the relievers 27th.

That the rotation came in above average despite the anchors of Barry Zito and Kevin Correia is a testament to just how awesome and Cy Young-worthy Tim Lincecum was in 2008. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez were both stable members of the rotation, also helping to offset the Zito disaster. It’s notable though that if you regressed home run per fly ball rates among starting pitchers, the group gets a lot worse.

Contrast that to the bullpen where Sergio Romo was truly the only hurler to claim a significant amount of positive contribution. Beside him were a few average-ish relievers surrounded by a hodgepodge of flotsam of the Gino Espineli and Erick Threets ilk.

The real culprits though were among the hitters, who generated about 75 runs below average according to wOBA and also lost about 20 runs on the defensive side as well. Interestingly, with the dismission of Barry Bonds, the offense clearly felt his absence, but possibly left field as well. Certainly Aaron Rowand played a part as well, but San Francisco’s outfield defense improved by 44 plays according to John Dewan. However, letting Pedro Feliz leave contributed to a collapse in their infield defense, falling 54 plays on the corners.

Back to the outfield, the Giants’ outfield of Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn were contributors with the bat as well, which coupled with that outstanding defense mentioned above, makes them one of the better and unheralded units in the game during 2008. It’s just everyone else who ruined the nice bed that the outfield made.

Can San Francisco recover? Barry Zito is going to be a big part of that answer as he’s not going to go anywhere with that salary. With Sanchez, Lincecum and Cain in the fold, the Giants have the foundation for a good rotation. Rebuilding bullpens can be done easily and cheaply, so really it comes down to overhauling their infield. With the weakened NL West, there is a chance for the Giants to make strides quickly.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty six: Cincinnati Reds

This wasn’t quite the season Cincinnati had in mind when the seasons began changing for the warmer this year. Saved from the bitter depth of the NL Central only by the lowly Pirates, the Reds featured a below average offense, defense and starting rotation. They managed to assemble a bullpen that resembled league average though.

Starting with the defense, going by John Dewan’s plus/minus system, they checked in at 22nd this year, 34 plays below average. While that it is bad, at least it was an improvement over 2007 when they finished 27th, a whopping 63 plays below average. The big differences appear to come from Joey Votto taking over from Scott Hatteberg, Corey Patterson replacing the departed Josh Hamilton, and a reduced amount of time that Ken Griffey Jr. appeared in right field.

You would like to see a below average defensive unit at least make it up with the bat, but that’s certainly not the case here. Patterson, Jeff Keppinger and Paul Bako were horrible at the plate, a collective 50 runs or so below average. For their horrid fielding, Griffey and Adam Dunn did far too little to make up the difference. Joey Votto was about the only success story with some supporting roles played by Jerry Hairston Jr and Chris Dickerson.

Edinson Volquez, arriving for Josh Hamilton from Texas, was certainly a big splash in the rotation for Cincinnati but he was alone in that role. Aaron Harang was the big surprise, dropping his strikeout rate substantially and seeing a rise in walks and home runs allowed. Johnny Cueto was serviceable in his first taste of the big leagues, an encouraging sign, but Homer Bailey was not, still unable to see his minor league strikeouts translate in the big leagues.

Bullpen wise, nobody aside from Jeremy Affeldt stands out as a success, perhaps Jared Burton, but the Reds did a good job of limiting liabilities with the worst reliever being either Gary Majewski or David Weathers.

The Reds managed to trade Griffey in 2008 and Adam Dunn and are losing some minor others to free agency. Their defense will be much improved with even average gloves in their place, but they also represented a pair of the few above average bats, so the Reds immediate future still looks bleak. Their hope would seem to rest on hoping Volquez is for real, Harang bounces back and Bailey and Cueto take steps forward and give them a force in the rotation to cover their other, numerous, deficiencies.

Well, I cannot say I am surprised, or even that upset. No, not because Dustin Pedroia was worthy of being named MVP, he wasn’t. It’s because I just cannot muster up much surprise when the BBWAA returns votes in this manner. Pedroia played in a big market, he had teammates and media members talking him up, he found himself to qualities like hustle, clutch, undersized, and the like. Despite the overwhelming stumping going on in his favor, he came across as the underdog candidate.

He should have been the underdog candidate, because he wasn’t the best choice for MVP. You want to talk numbers? Pedroia was 10th in RC/27. He played in a park skewed in his favor. He was 16th in WPA/LI. You want to talk pure value? Pedroia ranks 9th in WPA among AL-only players, 10th if you toss in Mark Teixeira‘s combined figures. Here is the entirety of Dustin Pedroia’s case to be named the AL MVP: He was first in clutch. That’s it. Joe Mauer (superior to Pedroia in nearly, if not all, meaningful category, was second. Joe Mauer is a catcher, a position worth about an extra win’s worth of value over second base.

Let us repeat our exercise from yesterday. Sorting by WPA, here’s the top five players in the AL for 2008 with their finish in the MVP voting in parenthesis:
1.Cliff Lee (12th)
2.Joe Mauer (4th)
3.Carlos Pena (9th)
4.Justin Morneau (2nd)
5.Carlos Quentin (5th)

I can excuse Cliff Lee from not getting more recognition. I am of the belief that the Cy Young is the award for pitchers and thus they shouldn’t be in the discussion for MVP. And overall, it looks pretty solid. The screw-up is that the actual MVP winner isn’t among those five names.

Now here’s the top five vote getters for MVP in the NL with their WPA rank in parenthesis:
1.Dustin Pedroia (9th)
2.Justin Morneau (4th)
3.Kevin Youkilis (21st)
4.Joe Mauer (2nd)
5.Carlos Quentin (5th)

Clearly, these people were good beyond any quantifiable means, and were able to single-handedly will their teams to contention by the sheer force of their personality and courage and valor. That’s why they got these MVP votes. Defense? Value? WOBA? BRAA? Nah, those have nothing on grit and scrappiness.

For the umpteenth time, even though it will not deter people from claiming it, I am not saying that Dustin Pedroia is bad or that he didn’t have a great season. He isn’t and he did. I am saying he wasn’t the MVP by any reasonable (and even most unreasonable) criteria. Joe Mauer probably should have won and even though he wasn’t above his league to the extent that Albert Pujols was, that doesn’t put a damper on Pedroia being the wrong choice.

Well, thank goodness for that. The process is still broken and the results still head-scratchingly inane at (often) times, but at least the end result was on the money today as Albert Pujols nabbed his second MVP Award.

Big Al was 2nd in average, 2nd in on base percentage, 1st in slugging, 1st in OPS, 1st in runs created as a rate and as a counting stat. He was 3rd in WPA* but 1st in BRAA and WPA/LI by a mile in each category. Oh and he also plays some of the best first base defense in the league. In short, Pujols was the best non-pitcher in the National League, hands down. And he won, so hurrah for that.

Were there mistakes in the voting? Oh yes. Dave Cameron covered the continuing under appreciation of Chase Utley earlier. The also always criminally underrated Chipper Jones also finished outside the top ten despite being the leader in many of the categories that Pujols finished second in.

Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Brad Lidge and CC Sabathia all got more votes for MVP than Tim Lincecum, who the BBWAA named the best pitcher in the league, received. I guess that means they were taking the valuable part of Most Valuable Player literally, but then again, the Mets and Diamondbacks missed the playoffs just as the Giants did and how would you really determine which was more valuable anyways? Oh yeah, WPA.

Sorting by WPA, here’s the top five players in the NL for 2008 with their finish in the MVP voting in parenthesis:
1.Manny Ramirez (4th)*
2.Lance Berkman (5th)
3.Albert Pujols (1st)
4.Carlos Beltran (22nd)
5.Matt Holliday (19th)

No pitchers on that list, but if it went down far enough, you’d see Tim Linceum at the top. So how exactly was Johan Santana or Brandon Webb more worthy of votes?

Now here’s the top five vote getters for MVP in the NL with their WPA rank in parenthesis:
1.Albert Pujols (3rd)
2.Ryan Howard (30th)
3.Ryan Braun (14th)
4.Manny Ramirez (1st)
5.Lance Berkman (2nd)

I don’t ask for the latter list to be identical to the former list. Okay, I sort of do (with some WPA/LI and defense thrown in), but for knowledge’s sake, at least make it close in the first three spots.

In retrospect, it’s probably good that Brad Lidge got as many votes as he did, for if he didn’t those votes might have gone to Ryan Howard and been enough to put him over Albert Pujols and marked 2008 as one (again) for the MVP Award infamous record books.

*If you count Manny’s WPA number as his combined Red Sox and Dodgers WPA figures.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty five: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres share a Spring Training facility with the Seattle Mariners. Perhaps it is worthy of investigating whether someone snuck a vial of the suck virus inside the complex sometime around October of 2007. A combined 177-148 record last year turned to an incredible 124-200 in 2008.

Never much of a scoring team, the Padres seemed fine with abandoning all pretense of trying to score runs this year, finishing with just 637. BaseRuns generously gives them credit for 664, still bad enough for 27th in baseball. And whereas in successful years they would limit opponents to under 700 runs scored, like the 666 allowed in 2007 (in 163 games), they managed to yield 764 (in 162 games) this season. Again, BaseRuns comes to the rescue of San Diego’s ego, saying they were only responsible for 742. Those differences are why San Diego managed to jump up a few spots from their actual finish in the standings.

San Diego’s defense, part of that usually excellent run prevention group stayed above average according to The Hardball Times and John Dewan which means the blame for the extra 100 runs allowed falls to the guys toeing the rubber. Last year’s Padres had a Cy Young season from Jake Peavy and great supporting years from Chris Young and Greg Maddux along with a fantastic bullpen (thanks to Trevor Hoffman and Heath Bell) and decent filler. 2008 saw Young get hurt, Maddux age and Peavy suffer from some serious regression, which was natural after a season like the one he had in 2007.

The bullpen also took a collective step back as Bell was good, but not as good, ditto Hoffman. They weren’t bad as a unit, just spread thin as they used a remarkable 27 different pitchers in relief roles at one point or another. Likewise, 14 different pitchers recorded at least one start and chief offenders of bad Josh Banks and Shawn Estes were handed 22 starts in which they recorded 55 strikeouts while walking 44 batters and allowing 17 home runs, all in just 118.1 innings. That’s a 4.2SO/3.3BB/1.3HR slash line per nine.

The hitters scored a hundred fewer runs so that certainly played a part as well. The Padres would have done well to hang onto Milton Bradley, but they did a much improved year from Brian Giles, who will be sticking around, for now, in 2009. Adrian Gonzalez also had another solid season, cementing himself as one of the more under appreciated commodities in baseball.

With Jake Peavy seemingly having pitched his last game in a Padre uniform, and a messy divorce for the San Diego owner driving them to slash payroll it could be a while before they can offer some resistance to other NL West clubs.

The New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox made a trade this afternoon. Based on reports, Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are headed to the Yankees in exchange for Jeff Marquez, Jhonny Nunez and Wilson Betemit.

The biggest name here is obviously Nick Swisher, who lasts just a single year in Chicago after coming over in a trade from Oakland prior to the 2008 season. He clearly did not fulfill the expectations that Kenny Williams had, but was it the right time to move on?

Looking at what most would call the advanced or peripheral and what I call the core stats, Swisher’s walk and strikeout rate rose a little over his career rates, but for all intents and purpose, show no major skill change. Swisher’s ground ball versus fly ball remained within reason as well, but he did see a sizable jump in his line drive rate, which is a positive sign. His home run per fly ball rate also stayed around career norms, indicating that he didn’t really lose anything in power, though there is the park to consider.

Discipline wise, Swisher swung incrementally more often over 2007, but less than he did 2005 or 2006. Swisher also posted his highest contact rate since 2005, up from 77.2% last year to 79% this year. So if his power remained the same, his discipline remained the same and his contact actually improved, how did he have such a poor season? In a word, luck. Remember that improved line drive rate I mentioned above, well despite that Swisher saw his BABIP from from .308 to a horribly unlucky .251. That’s pretty much it and for the future, you would expect that to rebound.

Swisher has three years and 22 million left on his contract with a 2012 option at an additional $9.25M. Assuming roughly average defense and Tango’s positional adjustments for the corner outfield and first base, where it seems likely Swisher will play, Swisher grades out somewhere around two to three wins, more if his bat comes all the way back or if his defense is above average. At just over $7 million per year, that makes Swisher a pretty solid bargain. In return for that and a decent looking minor league hurler in Texeira, the Yankees are sending back incredibly little.

Jeff Marquez reached Triple-A this year at 23, but while there saw his ground ball rates fall to down to average and had trouble generating strikeouts. Jhonny Nunez reached Double-A in the bullpen but has spent most of his time in the rotation. While there, he’s shown some ability to get strikeouts, but is just average at keeping the ball on the ground and really, is too far off to project much based on the numbers. Wilson Betemit has some power, but has some problems drawing walks.

All in all, this looks like a clear win for the Yankees, to the point that I’m betting that there are more than a few GMs out there upset they didn’t get in on the chance to acquire Swisher at this level of a discount.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty four: Kansas City Royals

What to say about the Royals. Another year wallowing in the depths of the AL Central and heading into an offseason with rumors rampant about more curious moves from GM Dayton Moore. The Mike Jacobs trade being just such an example. As 2008 clearly demonstrates, this team needs an offensive overhaul and more hitters with a .320 OBP isn’t exactly doing something different. The Royals finished the year at 682 runs scored according to BaseRuns, 25th in baseball and head of only Seattle and Oakland in the AL. Their run prevention though was about average, 748 runs allowed, 16th in baseball.

The Royals were actually one of the best defensive teams in 2007 according to John Dewan, coming in at 63 plays above average, 49 of those from the infield. This year, he has them as the fourth worst team in baseball, 65 plays below average, good for a mind-blowing 128 play difference which amounts to around 100 extra runs scoring. That’s pretty horrendous. The plus side to that is given that their run prevention overall was about average, and their defense was horrid, that means the pitching had to be above average.

Indeed it was, as Zack Greinke took a big step forward in 2008 and having just turned 25, looks poised to start a streak of really impressive seasons. He’s overlooked in Kansas City, but no mistake, he put up franchise-type numbers this season. Gil Meche had a really rocky start to the year, but recovered nicely and finished with 2008 on par, or even better than 2007. Two seasons in, and his contract has been a bargain so far. Time will tell if that performance holds up. Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies contributed some acceptable innings out of the rotation as well, but Brian Bannister was a bit of an issue with an ever-increasing line drive rate. Bullpen wise, Joakim Soria and Ramon Ramirez paired up to form one of the best relief duos nobody paid attention to.

The people responsible for all that bad defense were also responsible for some atrocious hitting. There are some decent contact hitters amongst the group, but they finished dead last in walks drawn among AL teams and 12th in slugging percentage. Tony Pena mercifully got replaced by actually productive Mike Aviles, but before he did he managed to rack up 225 at bats and an OPS+ of 7. There were numerous other problems as well with Aviles, Alex Gordon and David DeJesus being about the only contributors amongst the position players.

The Royals have some pitching, especially in the rotation, for the next couple years, but they need an overhaul of their positional talent if they’re going to even sniff the central of the AL Central.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty three: Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles got off to a fast start this season thanks to some great defense, but even then there were warning signs about the pitching staff vastly over performing. Those signs turned out to be correct as the Orioles fell off dramatically and ended up around where most people thought they would be, last in the East and among the worst teams in the league.

What was a surprise was an offense far more potent than expected. BaseRuns puts them at 785 runs scored, good for 12th in baseball. Nick Markakis, Melvin More and Brian Roberts all had incrementally better seasons over 2007. Luke Scott and Adam Jones were good enough with the bat to not draw any negative attention, but the big story came from Aubrey Huff, who came almost out of nowhere to post a .304/.360/.552 line.

The run prevention though is an entirely different story with BaseRuns clocking them at 875 runs allowed, the third worst total in all of baseball ahead of only the Pirates and Rangers. Baltimore’s team defensive rankings held about the same overall depending on which measurement you use, but the means to that end changed dramatically. Where as John Dewan’s fielding metrics have Balitmore as around average across all fields in 2007, the addition of Luke Scott and Adam Jones to the outfield in 2008 boosted them to a hearty +38 plays in the outfield this season. However, they suffered a corresponding drop in the infield which suggests I may have been wrong in my assessment of Miguel Tejada’s defense.

Regardless, the pitching was the culprit here as the Orioles boasted one of baseball’s worst rotations. Steve Trachsel was an unmitigated disaster as was Dennis Sarfate and Adam Loewen. Daniel Cabrera managed to get much worse and Radhames Liz and Brian Burres wouldn’t have seen the light of day on any competent squad.

It wasn’t just the rotation though as the bullpen gave up its share of runs. Outside of George Sherrill and Jim Johnson there was little to be excited about and a few like Jamie Walker and Fernando Cabrera to be really upset at. The Orioles have some fantastic young hitting talent, with more on the way in Matt Weiters, but they are severely lacking in pitching talent right now and given the state of the AL East, it looks like it will be awhile before Baltimore is in the discussion.

I love pitching. Maybe it’s my inherent bias toward defense, maybe it’s my experience as a pitcher growing up, I’m not sure which provides more influence. What I do know is that I’m always drawn to pitchers and their control over the game. It is with that that I present my third and final moment of the 2008 season which is actually two moments.

Moment #1a: June 8th, Rich Harden faces the Angels

Rich Harden has always had unquestioned talent, but his lack of health have kept him from compiling the totals he’s capable of and gaining the appreciation that he would finally get in 2008. Nobody has been able to miss as many bats, as consistently, as Rich Harden does when he’s on and finally given a full season this year he generated a swing and a miss on 14.8% of his pitches, 1.2 points ahead of second place CC Sabathia and 2.7 points ahead of third place Tim Lincecum.

In this particular game, Macier Izturis stepped up to lead off. He takes a fastball on the lower outside black, fouls off a change just slightly higher and toward the center of the plate and then strikes out foul tipping a 96-mph fastball waist high and back on the outer black. Three pitches, three strikes, one strikeout.

Howie Kendrick is next. He bites on a slider below the knees for strike one. He hacks at and fouls an outside fastball off to fall behind 0-2. Harden then drops another filthy slider, this one at 87-mph, off the table and into the dirt which Kendrick fans at for strike three. Three more pitches, three more strikes, another strikeout.

You get where this is going now right? Garret Anderson is the third batter and stares at identical belt-high outer black fastballs for strikes one and two. Harden then goes back to the 0-2 money pitch and drops an 88-mph slider over the plate but below the knees for a swinging strike three. Nine pitches in total, nine strikes, three swinging, in total and three strikeouts.

Moment #1b: June 17th, Felix Hernandez faces the Marlins

The Mariners had fired GM Bill Bavasi the day before, they were 24-46 through their first 70 games. The season was over and there wasn’t much to play for or pay attention to anymore. Except for Felix. Owner of the best overall stuff in the league, Felix has struggled to harness it and use it to generate the results everyone know he’s capable of. But he shows flashes of brilliance.

In the top of the third, Felix retired Matt Treanor on a first pitch ground out and then faced Alfredo Amezaga. Fastball called strike one on the outer black, fastball cut on and missed for strike two and a slider taken on the inner half for strike three and there were two outs. Hanley Ramirez’s turn lasted marginally better. A wild first pitch was followed by Hanley swinging and missing on a slider low and away, taking a 97-mph fastball on the outer edge and then striking out on a ridiculous slider in the dirt.

Impressive, but we’re not even close to done yet. To the top of the fourth and now it’s Jeremy Hermida’s turn. He watched a pair of 89-mph change ups on the inner half for strikes and then failed miserably at making contact with an 85-mph curveball below the knees. Jorge Cantu, come on up and take a shot. Felix dials him up with straight cheese, 97, 97 and 96-mph fastballs all up in the zone. Cantu watched the first, missed the second and, according to MLB while I’m skeptical, managed to nick the third for a foul tip strike three.

Finally, Mike Jacobs come to bat. Felix drops a curveball in for strike one then gets Jacobs to chase a fastball well outside and finally puts the finishing touches on the five batter stretch with an 88-mph slider that catches the inside part of the plate for a called strike three. Five batters, 16 pitches, five strikeouts. One ball and one pitch, one, that a batter managed to make contact with.

There two stretches were the highest examples of pitching as an art. This was dominance in no other terms.