A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty two: Houston Astros

Ignore that 86-75 record. The Astros were nowhere near that good of a team this year. Their pythagorean record was just 77-84 and BaseRuns agrees with the long dead Greek philosopher, crediting the Astros with 699 runs scored (23rd in the league) and 754 runs allowed (20th in the league). That’s good for a 75-86 mark, inverse of their actual record.

The 2008 Astros remade 3/5ths of their infield replacing Craig Biggio, Morgan Ensberg and Adam Everett with Kazuo Matsui, Ty Wiggington and Miguel Tejada. Those were three pretty good candidates for replacement as they all had bad years at the plate last season. The new trio were better, but collectively only a few runs above average thanks to Miguel Tejada’s post-April collapse.

Lance Berkman certainly exploded in 2008, but Hunter Pence regressed and Luke Scott was dealt away in the Tejada deal and overall the Astros offense remained pretty static compared to last year. That wasn’t a level they should be proud to stay at either.

The bullpen certainly could have used the revitalized Brad Lidge this year, but actually did quite fine on their own thanks to Chris Sampson, Jose Valverde and the newly re-signed LaTroy Hawkins. In the rotation, Randy Wolf was a decent enough idea, but really it was more important to do whatever it took to get Brandon Backe out of there. Oswalt clearly had a down season, but Wandy Rodriguez added another data point to the trend that he’s capable of being an above average starter in the NL.

Besides needing to make decisions on the rotation for 2009, the Astros should also really look into trying to upgrade their defense up the middle which spent another year being a liability and with Tejada at shortstop needs all the help it can get from other positions. Though if that means more playing time for Michael Bourn maybe it’s best they just forget it.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty one: Colorado Rockies

What befell the Rockies this year? A legitimately good team in 2007, the 2008 version of the Rockies saw their position players regress heavily on both offense and in the field. Where they scored 860 runs last season, they scored just 747 this year, though BaseRuns does credit them with 766 (good for 14th in the league). And while they limited opponents to just 758 runs in 2007, that figure jumped to 822 this season, though again BaseRuns has them a bit better at 792 allowed (23rd in the league).

Regressors at the plate included Troy Tulowitzki, who suffered through some injury problems this season and whose absence also hurt Colorado’s middle infield defense. Todd Helton had an unlucky year concerning his BABIP as it dropped roughly 40 points despite a similar line drive rate from 2007. Matt Holliday, though he had a good year, did take a step back from his 2007 peak.

There was some good news as the Rockies finally saw some actual major league production out of Chris Iannetta, which helps their future prospects look a little brighter. However, if they do hope to rebound on offense, they’re going to have to stop giving reams of at bats to players like Willy Taveras.

Beyond the plate though there was also an aforementioned defensive problem. Whereas the Rockies boasted a perfectly fine defense in 2007, it was built exclusively on the backs of their middle infield, that is Kazuo Matsui and Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo, as previously stated, had some injury problems this season which kept him out about 60 games and limited his effectiveness to an extent while he was playing as well. Kaz Matsui went to Houston, who saw their defense improve, and was replaced in Colorado by Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker, a pair of poor substitutes glove-wise.

Of course it wasn’t just the hitting and the fielding, there was also the pitching that went south. Though the fact of the matter is that the 2007 Rockies didn’t boast that great of a staff, even after giving them credit for Coors Field. The rotation was fine and all with Jeff Francis and company, but the bullpen was inconsequential at best. This season saw the departure of such luminaries like Tom Martin and Ramon Ortiz and a return to form from Brian Fuentes which resulted in a significant leap forward for the pen.

They needed it though as the rotation took a step backwards. Gone was Josh Fogg but Greg Reynolds stepped into his big shoes of terrible and made them bigger. Francis regressed and Taylor Buchholz was shifted to the pen. They did see a nice uptick from Ubaldo Jimenez, but he wasn’t enough to counterbalance all the negatives on his own.

The Rockies are said to be shopping Holliday and possibly others around and they have almost surely lost Fuentes to free agency. Given all that, there’s little chance that 2009 sees a return to prominence for them and how long it takes for them to climb back into the NL West depends a bit on their return on Holliday and a lot on just how bad the rest of the division remains in the near future.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Twenty: Oakland Athletics

As the Tigers dominated at the plate and failed on the mound and in the field, the Athletics excelled on the mound and in the field and failed miserably at the plate. Oakland projected to score only 650 runs, 30 fewer than any other American League team. However, they were also one of just seven teams to project out to less than 700 runs allowed and came in fourth overall at 683. All in all, while it wasn’t impressive overall, it was a good showing given the expectations coming into 2008 and the moves made by GM Billy Beane to re-shape the team for the future.

The trading of Nick Swisher and Dan Haren had most expecting the Athletics to dwell in the cellar. Those who saw Oakland’s pitching and defense as being enough to overcome a dismal offense were rare, but that’s just what they did, hanging around through the trading deadline. That they were still within shouting distance come that time makes Beane’s commitment to his rebuild all the more noteworthy. Faced with the pressure of unexpected quasi-contention, Beane didn’t back off and took the opportunity to trade the finally healthy Rich Harden at a good price to the Cubs. A week later, Beane would trade Joe Blanton to Philadelphia for some more minor league talent.

Some would be tempted to connect the dots between those trade and Oakland’s subsequent falling off the map performance wise, but the seeds for that collapse were already sewn when the team was constructed. That’s why Beane was correct in not deviating from his planned course of action. Furthermore, though the A’s went just 2-19 over a span from July 12 to August 8, the main culprit was the offense not the now depleted pitching. The aforementioned offense was abysmal, scoring just 3.4 runs per game in July and a shocking 2.7 runs per game in August. It was that, not the loss of Harden and Blanton, that killed them.

Billy Beane has done a commendable job building up Oakland’s farm system over the past 12 months but he also needs a large portion of that farm system to produce because right now the hitting talent at the major league level is contemplating filing for endangered species protection. Beane did get off to a good start by locking up Mark Ellis to a deal that is so favorable to Oakland the MLBPA must be throwing a hissy fit. Next on the winter check list will be his annual bargain free agent hitter signing (Jason Giambi?) and the possible trading of Huston Street to a team wanting to avoid the price tags of Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez.

My first highlight of the season was Barry Bonds complete lack of an appearance. One might say that was decided before the season even began. My second moment of the season came nearly all the way at the end. It’s Game Seven of the American League Championship Series.

This game is still so fresh in everyone’s mind that I do not think I need to waste words or your time recapping it, so instead I will focus on why I felt it was a moment of magnitude beyond that of just your typical pennant-deciding playoff game. The game itself (I swear I’m not going to recap it) was close and tense, which always increases the drama ten-fold when we’re dealing with a deciding game. And it was decided at home, in front of a Tampa Bay (baseball) crowd that had never seen anything even remotely like this.

I will not go as far as to say this game signaled a transformation in baseball or any such hyperbole of that sort. If anything, last year’s playoffs were more of heralding of youth and the successes of modern analysis than this season’s. No, what this (American League) season ended with was this game, the Tampa Bay Rays who had finished last in every year of their existence, except one when they finished fourth, up to 2008. It was about a team, not just breaking through, but shattering notions of what’s what in baseball. The Rays kept the Yankees out of the playoffs, they competed with the budgets run amok in Boston and New York and they won. They won because of talent and because of smart management. They get to be the new flag bearer for every small market fan to look toward and say to him or herself that maybe someday his or her team might triumph in the same way.

Ultimately, it’s the arrival of Tampa that I predict 2008 will be remembered for when we look back in a decade or so. I do not think this is a flash in the pan team. There’s too much talent on the field now, in the front office and in the minor leagues for them to fade as quickly as they emerged. Boston, New York, say hello to a new competitor for the division. Toronto, Baltimore, your jobs just got even tougher. Rest of America, you got your first exposure to the Rays, I hope you’re ready for more.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Nineteen: Detroit Tigers

With the acquisitions of Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera to re-shape the left side of their infield coming into 2008, the Tigers looked poised to be an offensive behemoth and had some people saying 1,000 runs was even within reach. In a sense, that wasn’t terribly unrealistic, but it was certainly a high end estimate and needed to be treated as such. In reality, the 2008 Tigers ended up worse at offense than their previous years counterparts, scoring 66 fewer runs. BaseRuns supports their total, giving them a projected 826 runs to a real total of 821. That still was good enough to rank 4th in the Major Leagues as far as BaseRuns goes but their 841 projected runs allowed (which is 16 fewer than they actually gave up) was poor enough to rank 27th.

Offensively speaking, the problem for the Tigers in matching their 2007 figures was rooted in unsustainable performances. Namely, Magglio Ordonez who posted a pedestrian 19.2% line drive rate in 2007 but managed to record a ridiculous .385 BABIP. There was no way that was going to stay at that level and it didn’t, falling to a more believeable .338 mark this season. That drop sloughed about 40 points off his average and thus his on base percentage as well. His power and walk abilities also regressed a tad further dropping his OBP and really cutting into his slugging percentage which went down 101 points year over year. Add it all up and Magglio Ordonez alone was worth about 50 less runs with his bat than in 2007. That’s kind of a lot.

Placido Polanco and Gary Sheffield also suffered drops in production of around 20 runs each and so the problem begins to be clear why Miguel Cabrera alone wasn’t going to be enough. Now, if the run prevention unit had maintained their 2007 totals, the Tigers might have still been okay. That didn’t happen though, not in the slightest. First of all there’s the defense. Ranked as one of baseball’s better units last year, John Dewan of the Fielding Bible had them at 45 plays above average. According to The Hardball Times, they dropped to 54 plays below average this season which is supported by the team BABIP jumping seven points to .304 this year.

It obviously wasn’t just the defense however, there were actual problems with the hurlers themselves. Namely in the bullpen where Todd Jones finally collapsed and took most of the rest of the unit with him. One has to wonder if Joel Zumaya will ever be the Joel Zumaya of 2006 again. Moving backward in game time, the starters would seem like an easy target as well, and they did also get worse in 2008, but their degradation wasn’t as severe as in the other units. Chiefly, Jeremy Bonderman fell into below average territory in 2008 with his ill-favored party trick of turning strikeouts (down two per nine) into walks (up two per nine). But the Tigers also rid themselves of Mike Maroth this season which was a positive step. Of course they added Dontrelle Willis willingly and then gave him an extension so there’s that for the next few seasons to deal with.

The Tigers need to completely remake their defense and pitching while they hope their aging offensive core doesn’t age too quickly and they’re in a tough division to hope for many breaks.

As Eric mentioned a few days ago, all of us here are recapping some of our more memorable moments from this season part. To lead off my own such list, I don’t have a moment per se, but actually a lack of a moment. The moment I am talking about is the first plate appearance from one of the top hitters of 2007, one of the top three hitters of all time and the man possessing the all time home run record.

Barry Bonds made zero trips to the plate in 2008. He had a 4.88 WPA/LI in 2007, nearly 44 BRAA, and created 10.29 runs per 27 outs. He posted an OPS of 1.045 last season. It would be one matter if Bonds had voluntarily retired, but to see a player of such magnitude, of such ability, who was showing little signs of not being able to sustain a high level of performance through 2008 at least be forced out of the game is astounding. Almost as astounding as the near total lack of coverage it has received. This is arguably the best player ever in baseball history and not a single team was interested enough to give him a one-year deal? It’s far too bewilderingly.

It’s sadly now impossible to talk about Bonds without the issue of steroids coming up. I understand why that can be a hot button issue for some and why some might be perfectly happy to see Barry Bonds no longer playing baseball because of it. Putting that aside though, isn’t it incredibly suspicious that there wasn’t any interest from any team? Not during the offseason, not during Spring Training when the first spate of injuries came down, not when the first teams that thought they would be contenders turned into pumpkins, not when the trade deadline came around and not when the teams with likely postseason hopes had their final chances to add a big bat in the hopes of some October magic.

Will Bonds be back for 2009? It seems unlikely at this point, but his zero at bats in 2008 was one the most memorable parts of this season for me.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Eighteen: Atlanta Braves

Last time when we looked at the Texas Rangers, I remarked how they registered about the exact same (there was a slight decimal difference) amount of runs scored and allowed according to BaseRuns, but that they were on opposite ends of the ranking spectrum. This time around with the Braves we have the epitome of a matched team. The Braves ranked 17th in BaseRuns scored with 753 runs and ranked 18th in BaseRuns allowed with 751 runs. Now that’s equality.

Despite a seemingly poor rating on offense, the Braves actually had a decent collection of bats. Their league and their park both suppressed offense which makes them come across as a bit worse then they actually were. Notably, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson and (while he was there) Mark Teixeira formed a tremendous offensive infield, possibly the best in baseball. Where the Braves fell down was in the outfield especially with Jeff Francoeur who took a big step back this season.

The Braves also had a serviceable bullpen, keeping away from black holes and having a few new names. Jeff Bennett who hadn’t pitched a full season since 2004 with Milwaukee, game in to toss nearly 100 innings with a nearly 64% groundball rate. Buddy Carlyle moved from the rotation and saw his groundball and strikeout rates move way up.

The rotation did see the heralded (okay, not really) return of Mike Hampton. However old war horses Tom Glavine and John Smoltz both went down with injuries along with Tim Hudson. Given all that it’s hardly a surprise that the rotation faltered a bit. That they didn’t outright collapse is a testament to a pair of surprises. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo, both of whom have been covered extensively here. They provide some hope for next season as they wait to hear on how their injured brethren recover.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Seventeen: Texas Rangers

Say hello to either the most balanced or the most unbalanced team in the majors in 2008 depending on how you view it. The Rangers had the widest disparity between their ranks of runs scored and runs allowed allowed, finishing first in the former and last in the latter. On the other hand, according to BaseRuns the Rangers came in with 917 runs scored and… 917 runs allowed.

The offense was legit, even after adjusting for the launching pad that is Arlington. The Rangers did a fantastic job of avoiding black holes in the lineup. Ben Broussard and German Duran were about the only exceptions and they were minor at that. Countering their meager negative contributions were massive positive contributions from newcomers Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton, and Chris Davis. Marlon Byrd had another fine season as well, showing some results after all the potential in Philadelphia and Washington.

On the flip side of those players additions at the plate were their detractions in the field. The Rangers ranked dead last or, at minimum, well below average in most every advanced defensive metric. They were so pitiful that they wiped out a healthy chunk of their offensive gains.

On the pitching front, the bullpen was a mixed bag with a few bright spots amongst a mostly drab collection. Luis Mendoza and Frank Francisco were both helpful members and Jamey Wright was about dead average which, over the amount of innings he kept away from the worse members of the pen, counts him among the better relievers.

The rotation, on the other hand, could have used a huge helping of just average. One of the worst overall units in baseball this past season, the Rangers’ starters did see slight rebound years from Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla, but given their sad state in 2007 that’s not saying much. Even that small piece of good news has a cloud behind it in that both of their groundball rates saw a decline this year, painting a potential bad sign for things to come.

Rain rain, go away. Tonight’s possible World Series deciding game has been officially suspended due to excessive precipitation in Philadelphia. How precarious is this suspension? Several people are no doubt thinking that technically the game should be called (because they completed the top of the fifth) and the score reverted to the previous fully completed inning. That would make the score 2-1 in favor of Philadelphia and the game would be over. And that would be it, four games to one, Philadelphia would ironically break their title drought thanks to a downpour.

Well thank goodness for the rule changes that came about prior to the 2007 season. Prior to 2007, the above would be the letter of the (baseball) law. Starting with the 2007 season however, we now have Rule 4.12 which covers the suspension of games. What does it say? A lot, but here’s my best take at it in plain English as it pertains to tonight. A baseball games shall be considered suspended if a regulation game (4.5 innings completed with the home team ahead, or 5 innings with the visiting club ahead or tied) is called while an inning is in progress, the visiting team has scored one or more runs to take the lead and the home team has not retaken the lead, or if it is a regulation game that is called with the score tied.

If Carlos Pena had not singled home B.J. Upton with two outs in the top of the sixth, tonight’s game would not fall under any of the nine provisions for a suspended game and the old rules would be back in effect. That is, game over, series over. That is how close we all came to the worst ending in baseball since Bud Selig’s All-Star game tie.

Baseball will attempt to resume play tomorrow at 8pm eastern in Philadelphia, but with a forecast currently showing tomorrow to be worse than tonight, only time will tell if that will prove feasible. And if not? Well, it gets pretty murky. Going back to Rule 4.12 we find the provision for the resumption of suspended games. It shall be resumed before the next scheduled game between the two clubs on the same grounds or played at the opposing club’s park if there are no more scheduled games between the teams. We don’t have another scheduled game in Philadelphia so we’re going to resume this game in Tampa; right? It depends on how baseball interprets what constitutes a “scheduled game” when we’re dealing with a postseason series and realistically, they aren’t going to allow this to be resumed in Tampa. Baseball’s rules are well-written to disguise easy interpretation and this section is no exception, but the good part for all of us as fans is that this is the World Series and nothing short of a labor stoppage is going to prevent to playing this out fully.

A continuation of the series of retrospectives looking back at the regular season and how teams fared. They will be presented, from first to last, in order of their run differential as given by the BaseRuns formula and adjusted for strength of schedule, which I feel is the best measurement of a team’s actual talent level.

Number Sixteen: Florida Marlins

Another team like Oakland and Minnesota that was mostly dismissed at the beginning of the season due to the trading of their best player, Florida also surprised many with how long they stayed competitive in the NL East. Florida was a balanced team, 16th in run scoring and 14th in run prevention per BaseRuns.

Florida’s defense may be the biggest story as their pitching staff had their BABIP drop from an astounding .330 last season to a more pedestrian .301 this year. That 29 point difference comes out to roughly equal 130 plays over a full season, or 100 runs using Tango’s 0.8 runs per play constant. 100 runs saved! Makes you wonder just how bad at defense Miguel Cabrera really was/is.

Speaking of Cabrera, that was certainly the thought that his being traded away would hamper the Marlins, sending them into a tailspin so bad as to compete with the Nationals for worst team in the NL. In retrospect, that was pretty silly. Yes, Cabrera is a fantastic offensive talent, but just like with Manny Ramirez, his abhorrent defense seriously deflates his value and mitigates his departure. The hitting got worse of course, but it really wasn’t all that much worse. Jorge Cantu helped provide some relief and this season there was no Miguel Olivo around to soak up 450-odd at bats with a .263 OBP.

The bullpen took a step back however as 2007 standouts Justin Miller and Matt Lindstrom both reverted more toward the league average and nobody, aside from Arthur Rhodes in limited duty after being acquired midseason from Seattle, really stepped up to provide a dominant performance.

You could say the same about the rotation in a ways, that nobody truly stood out, and while that would be true, it would gloss over just how much of an improvement that represented over 2007. Last season saw around 500 innings go to Daniel Barone, Scott Olsen, Rick Vanden Hurk and Dontrelle Willis who combined to post awful ratios. 2008 saw a superficial improvement from Olsen (his ratios remained poor), but getting rid of Willis was a blessing and Ricky Nolasco stepped up along with some supporting cast in Andrew Miller (though where are his groundballs?), Chris Volstad and the return of Josh Johnson.