Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.s

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Chicago NL | 14:20 ET
Roark (20.1 IP, 119 xFIP-) vs. Wada (4.2 IP, 39 xFIP-)
Among pitchers who’ve (a) thrown at least 100 total innings over the last three seasons and also (b) recorded at least half their appearances in a starting capacity — among pitchers who meet both those criteria, Washington right-hander Tanner Roark has produced the fourth-greatest difference between his park-adjusted ERA and xFIP figures. Among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 innings and meet the other relevant criteria, Roark ranks second by that same measure. Raising the innings threshold to 250 innings places Roark atop the table — and raising it to 1000 innings eliminates every pitcher from the sample and renders the endeavor wholly meaningless.

A table expressing most of the above in mostly numeric form appears below. (Note that X-E denotes the difference between xFIP- and ERA-).

It’s improbable but not impossible that Roark possesses some collection of skills that will allow him to continue preventing runs at his established levels while also recording fielding-independent numbers at his established levels. As PG Wodehouse’s insouciant aristocrat Psmith advises, however, one ought never to confuse the former (that is, the improbably) with the latter (the impossible).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Episode 564
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses Nassim Taleb’s black-swan theory with regard to short right-handed pitchers in the amateur draft, how that same theory might apply to position players, and a pair of minor leaguers with unusual (if also promising) profiles.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 14 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Diego at Los Angeles NL | 16:10 ET
Shields (55.1 IP, 74 xFIP-) vs. Frias (24.2 IP, 91 xFIP-)
For those, like the author, who operate under the notion that Dodgers right-hander Carlos Frias — owing to a combination of arm speed and command — that Carlos Frias possesses the tools to develop into an above-average major-league starting pitcher, what this game represents is not an opportunity to wholly confirm or refute that hypothesis, but rather to collect another data point in a series of data points that might ultimately aid in answering that question. For those, like the author, who also aren’t immune to the charms of fermented beverages, it represents an opportunity to collect that data point while consuming same.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at Arizona | 22:10 ET
Arrieta (52.0 IP, 70 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (53.0 IP, 89 xFIP-)
Of some interest regarding this game — besides the matchup featuring two above-average starters — is the quantity of young players its likely to feature. Consider: per Baseball Reference, Chicago has recorded the lowest average batter age (weighted by at-bats) among all major-leauge clubs; Arizona, the second-lowest such mark (tied with Houston). The Cubs, one notes, feature three regulars currently participating in their age-24 season or something less than that: Kris Bryant (147 PA, 1.3 WAR), Addison Russell (112 PA, 0.5 WAR), and Jorge Soler (180 PA, 0.3 WAR). The Diamondbacks feature that same thing, as well, in Ender Inciarte (174 PA, 0.5 WAR), Chris Owings (152 PA, -0.3 WAR), and Yasmany Tomas (98 PA, 0.4 WAR). If not an entire fountain of youth, this encounter certainly offers at least a lawn sprinkler or maybe bidet of youth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Kazmir (49.2 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Archer (54.2 IP, 68 xFIP-)
A protostar, in astronomical terms, is a region of matter in space that, by some combination of condensing matter and pressure, forms a hot and spinning mass which, with the addition of even more matter, itself develops into a main-sequence star. A protostar, in sporting terms, isn’t really a thing. Were it a thing, however, it would likely denote Tampa Bay right-hander Chris Archer, which pitcher has the sixth-best expected FIP and eighth-highest average fastball velocity among all qualified pitchers. One has the opportunity to observe him today by means of the Rays’ excellent center-field camera.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 15:45 ET
Kershaw (51.0 IP, 57 xFIP-) vs. Bumgarner (50.2 IP, 93 xFIP-)
The reader might regard it as an instance of “beating a dead horse” to suggest that a combination of Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and their respective California-based franchises — to suggest that all of it, together, conspires to produce a compelling spectacle. The author contends, however, that it’s nothing at all like beating a dead horse. On the contrary: while the encounter between Bumgarner and Kershaw is likely to produce considerable pleasure, the prospect of beating horses — dead or alive, really — skews decidedly more to the horrifying side of things. Indeed, a little research reveals that today’s psychiatric wards are occupied almost exclusively by people who were traumatized after witnessing the merciless assault of a horse. Really, the author’s suggestion regarding Bumgarner and Kershaw, etc., rather than the beating of an equine, bears much more resemblance to sitting in a massage chair at an area Sharper Image location, in that one is likely both to enjoy and also to repeat that activity. To that end, I submit that it might be more accurately regarded as an instance of “sitting in a massage chair at the Sharper Image” to suggest that a combination of Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, and their respective California-based franchises — to suggest that all of it, together, conspires to produce a compelling spectacle

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television*.

*Unless Vin Scully has made trip to San Francisco. In which case, Vin Scully.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at New York NL | 18:10 ET
Martinez (51.1 IP, 88 xFIP-) vs. Colon (40.0 IP, 90 xFIP-)
Here, in lieu of a thousand words, is a chart depicting the number of batters Bartolo Colon has faced and the number of those same batters (colored red) that he’s walked (click to enlarge, naturally):

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

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Episode 563
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he addresses — among other important matters — how the Marlins are a little bit of a huge, giant bummer.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Frias (18.2 IP, 83 xFIP-) vs. Hudson (45.1 IP, 102 xFIP-)
In the foreword to his anthology of fantastic literature Black Water, editor Alberto Manguel suggests that the definitive and also most appealing characteristic of that genre is its capacity for surprise — the capacity for surprise one finds, for example, in I. A. Ireland’s Climax for a Ghost Story, which brief story not only appears in Manguel’s anthology but also right here in its entirety:

“How eerie!” said the girl, advancing cautiously. “–And what a heavy door!” She touched it as she spoke and it suddenly swung to with a click.

“Good Lord!” said the man. “I don’t believe there’s a handle inside. Why, you’ve locked us both in!”

“Not both of us. Only one of us,” said the girl, and before his eyes she passed straight through the door, and vanished.

Ireland’s brief work not only illustrates the best of fantastic literature, but also serves as a means by which to better understand Dodgers right-hander Carlos Frias. Because Frias is the man in the story, is why. But in addition to the man, he’s also the girl. And in addition to those two, he’s also — and this is most unnerving — he’s also the door.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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