Episode 561
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he analyzes all baseball — in particular that part of the game concerning the next collective bargaining agreement — by means of a new, possibly better microphone.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 33 min play time.)

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Episode 560
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses which GMs are attending which amateur games, his way-too-early mock draft from last week, and the uncertainty of the D-backs’ uncertainty.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Sabathia (38.0 IP, 96 xFIP-) vs. Colome (10.0 IP, 46 xFIP-)
Over 16.0 innings in 2013, Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Colome produced a strikeout- and walk-rate differential of merely four points. In 23.2 innings last season, he recorded a differential of only three points. Not particularly great, either of those numbers. Over his first 10.0 innings this season, however, Colome has posted strikeout and walk rates of 26.3% an 0.0%, respectively — to which figures the application of subtraction produces a differential of exactly 26.3 points. Considerably bigger, that number. How has he facilitated that improvement? Mostly by means of chance, probably. But also by way of an increased swinging-strike rate, too, probably. Most impressive thus far has been a pitch referred to alternately as a cutter and slider.

Here’s an example of it to Mookie Betts from last week:

And to Xander Bogaerts, from that same game:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Minnesota at Cleveland | 13:10 ET
May (26.0 IP, 95 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (26.0 IP, 55 xFIP-)
Today’s actual and official most highly rated game is the one featuring the Dodgers at the Rockies at 4:10pm — which is to say, the one featuring the perpetually effective Clayton Kershaw versus the curiously effective Jorge de la Rosa. That particular encounter, however, was also yesterday’s most highly rated game before inclement weather cancelled it. The virtues of the Dodgers-Rockies contest are enumerated in only slighter greater depth here. With regard to this game between Minnesota and Cleveland, its most notable quality is how it provides the opportunity to observe Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar. Were pitcher NERD figures not capped at 10, Salazar would receive a score of 15. He’s produced an expected FIP more than two standard deviations better than the average starter; a swinging-strike rate almost exactly three standard deviations better. Plus he throws harder than nearly everyone else.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Colorado | 20:10 ET
Kershaw (38.2 IP, 50 xFIP-) vs. de la Rosa (12.0 IP, 66 xFIP-)
One benefit of this game to America and the Americans who live within it, is that it provides an opportunity to watch Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw. Insofar as Kershaw’s arm and body will submit eventually to the deleterious effects of age, only a finite number of such opportunities exist. This represents one of them. Otherwise, here’s another compelling feature of this contest — namely, that it allows everyone to learn more about this current, not entirely recognizable version of Jorge de la Rosa. Because, some facts about his (very brief) 2015 season thus far… One: he’s recorded an average fastball velocity of 93.8 mph, higher than at any other point in his career. Two: he’s produced a 16% swinging-strike rate, higher by six points than his career average. Three: he’s allowed runs (regard this number: 9.00 ERA) with considerably more frequency that his defense-independent numbers (regard these numbers: 2.58 FIP, 2.51 xFIP) would suggest.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: No Comment.

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Devised originally in response to a challhenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Gray (43.0 IP, 98 xFIP-) vs. Walker (22.2 IP, 120 xFIP-)
Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker hasn’t provided much in the way of performance this season. The ERA is unsightly (as exhibited by the 222 ERA-), nor are the fielding-independent numbers distinguished for their world-famous sightliness, at this point (as exhibited by the 138 FIP- and 120 xFIP-). The projections suggest, however, that Walker will improve on all those numbers. And in terms of aesthetics, he offers the following collection of charms: considerable youth, plus velocity, and enough command not to render it all moot. Also, he works at a pace (19.5 seconds between pitches) nearly a standard deviation faster than the average starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Before beginning in earnest, it’s essential or nearly essential for the reader to know that this post for FanGraphs.com on the internet relies on an improbable set of assumptions. One of those assumptions is this: that you (the reader) are a member of a major-league front office. Another is this: that you’ve solicited me, the author — a person who lives in rural New Hampshire and possesses only a basic reading-level command of Spanish — that you’ve solicited me to recommend some Mexican League players who might find some success in the majors. A third assumption is this: that you’re entirely comfortable with the knowledge that I’ve seen only a couple of these players in person — and even then it was at a spring-training game in Mexico City’s new facility while consuming a number of tall beers with British illustrator/dipsomaniac Craig Robinson.

Weirder things have probably happened than the scenario I’ve laid out above, but almost all of them have been confined to parties hosted by Silvio Berlusconi. What, then, is the purpose of this post? Mostly just to become acquainted with the most interesting (and generally young) talents in the Mexican League (or LMB).

It’s probably best to address first this question — namely, what sort of talent the LMB has produced in the past that has gone on to success in the American major leagues. The answer, broadly speaking, is that it has produced notable talent. Joakim Soria and Fernando Valenzuela, for example, both pitched in the LMB before ever making an appearance in the majors. Baseball’s current top pitching prospect, Julio Urias, was employed by the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City before that club and the Dodgers reached an agreement for him to move to the latter team. In a lower profile but still relevant instance, Houston acquired two other players from Mexico City: Japhet Amador and Leo Heras. The former was compelled to return to Mexico when his wife became ill, but Heras remains in the Astros system at the Double-A level, where he’s exhibited promising plate discipline and speed. These examples skew decidedly anecdotal, but the idea with them isn’t to supply anything like an exhaustive study, but rather merely to illustrate that a player from the LMB has ever once succeeded in the majors.

Always it’s best to complement any sort of endeavor such as this one with observational evidence. Owing to the author’s geographical constraints and also the paucity of video available for the LMB, however, that’s not really an option. In any case, one can reach some basic assumptions about a player’s talent level by considering certain relevant information and weighting it responsibly.

This sort of information, for example:

Age
Younger players are obviously more likely to improve — or at least not decline. Also, with regard to the LMB, specifically, one finds that the average age is on the older side — nearly 31 for batters and 29 for pitchers. For the purposes of this post, I’ve considered only those players who are 27 or younger.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Milwaukee | 13:40 ET
Frias (7.2 IP, 87 xFIP-) vs. Fiers (24.2 IP, 82 xFIP-)
Three years ago, following the completion of that season in which Michael Pineda had produced three-plus wins with Seattle despite almost the complete absence of a third pitch, the author endeavored to identify the next Michael Pineda. The idea: to find a pitcher in the high minors who threw roughly 95 mph (like Pineda) and also featured above-average control (like Pineda). The result: Garrett Richards. Richards’ success wasn’t immediate — he didn’t record his first signature season until last year — but he’s retained that pairing of skills and they continue to benefit him. This most recent offseason, the author endeavored to find the next next Michael Pineda (or simply the next Garrett Richards, perhaps). The result of that second effort: Carlos Frias. Frias exhibited both of the relevant skills in his first start of the season last Friday, sitting at just under 96 mph while recording just a single walk over 5.1 innings (box).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Kansas City | 20:10 ET
Carrasco (21.2 IP, 58 xFIP-) vs. Duffy (28.2 IP, 90 xFIP-)
All indications indicated that Cleveland right-hander Carlos Carrasco would sustain — given adequate health — would largely sustain in 2015 his success from 2014. FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris found, for example, that no other pitcher generated a better combination of swinging strikes and ground balls with each pitch in his arsenal. That sort of performance in combination with the plus-plus velocity he exhibited on his fastball last year suggested that he possessed both the physical tools and pitching-specific skills to produce an excellent campaign. While he’s had some difficulty in preventing actual runs over his first five starts, Carrasco has continued to record among the very best defense-independent numbers in the league, having recorded, for example, the third-best expected FIP among all pitchers with 20-plus innings — behind only Clayton Kershaw and teammate Danny Salazar. Nor is the run-scoring likely all his fault: the Cleveland defense currently sits comfortably in the bottom third among all clubs both by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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