Author Archive

NERD Game Scores for Thursday, April 30, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at New York NL | 19:10 ET
Strasburg (24.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. deGrom (24.1 IP, 102 xFIP-)
Washington right-hander Stephen Strasburg was an elite amateur prospect known for his plus-plus arm speed who was selected first overall in the 2009 draft. Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom was a markedly less elite amateur prospect selected 272nd overall (and signed for $95,000) in the 2010 draft. Here are their average fastball velocities roughly a month into the season: 94.2 mph and 94.0 mph, respectively. One finds that those are the seventh- and tenth-best such marks among the league’s 112 qualified pitchers). One concludes that all human endeavor is afflicted by awfulest chance.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Cleveland | 18:10 ET
Ventura (22.0 IP, 90 xFIP-) vs. Salazar (13.0 IP, 61 xFIP-)
This game receives a higher score than Pirates-Cubs by mere decimal points according to the author’s very proprietary and useless methodology. That Yordano Ventura has been removed from each of his last two starts, however, likely adds a layer of intrigue to this contest which widens that gap. Or if not a layer of intrigue, then a shroud of it. And if not a shroud, then perhaps a mantle. And if not a mantle, then a cloak. What one learns more than anything is that, to describe the appeal of this game, some manner of loose-fitting cloth garment is necessary. What else what one learns is that Ventura and Danny Salazar have produced the fourth-highest and absolute highest average fastball velocities, respectively, among all 145 pitchers to have thrown 10 innings as a starter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ranking Baseball’s Center-Field Camera Shots (2015 Update)

Four years ago, in these same electronic pages, the present author published a ranking of all 30 clubs’ center-field broadcast camera angles. The immediate purpose: to create a reference for anyone with access to MLB.TV, MLB Extra Innings, or some other manner of game video, so that he or she might be better equipped to choose the ideal feed. Last year, I provided an updated edition of that original post.

What follows is the product of an almost identical exercise — updated to account for whatever changes (if any) have occurred within the last calendar year.

In general, cameras have been assessed according to the ability with which they document the pitcher-batter encounter. More specifically, I’ve utilized three guiding criteria, as follow:

  • Shot Angle
    In which more central and lower is generally preferred.
  • Shot Size
    In which closer up and not longer is generally preferred.
  • Whim
    In which the author’s own intuition has been utilized.

In what follows, I’ve embedded screencaps for all 30 of the league’s center-field cameras, broken down into three categories: Top Ten, Bottom Five, and The Rest. In every case, I’ve used images featuring only right-handed pitchers at the peak of their leg kick — so that the orientation of that pitcher’s body might least distort the perception of the camera angle. Furthermore, I’ve attempted to identify weekday feeds from the home club’s regional broadcast — as opposed to weekend and/or national broadcasts, which sometimes utilize a different feed or graphics. In that same spirit, I’ve also attempted to find representative moments that feature the relevant broadcasts typical score bug and strike-zone plot (if the latter exists).

The reader will note that straight-on shots constitute the most highly ranked of the center-field cameras. This makes sense, of course: straight-on shots portray lefties and righties in the same way and document pitch movement in a way that off-set cameras can’t. The reader will also note that a small collection of notes and observations appears at the very bottom of this post.

Finally, if the reader finds that I’ve erred in any of the screen captures here, don’t hesitate to make note of same below.

Top Ten
1. Pittsburgh Pirates

PIT

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at Boston | 18:10 ET
Drew Hutchison (23.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Clay Buchholz (22.1 IP, 67 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR). Entering the 2015 season, the latter had recorded a career strikeout- and walk-rate differential of roughly 9.5 points, with 2013’s 14.4 points representing his career-high mark. Over four starts and 22.1 innings, Buchholz has produced a differential of 21.8 points (28.7% K, 6.9% BB) while also posting what would represent his career-best ground-ball rate (55.6%). What else this game represents is an opportunity to regard the eighth-best player by WAR in the majors: rookie second baseman Devon Travis. Travis has produced 1.2 wins over the first 74 plate appearances of his career.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Employing Skepticism with Dave Cameron

Episode 556
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the Alex Guerrero Situation, the Josh Hamilton Situation, and various other situations.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 53 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Welcome Yourself to NERD Game Scores for 2015

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. What follows represents the first edition of NERD scores for 2015.

Read more about the components of NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Collin McHugh (18.2 IP, 67 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces James Shields (25.0 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). After producing last year a strikeout- and walk-rate differential (18.7 points) that far exceeded his previously established levels, the former has both (a) exactly matched that same differential while also (b) inducing about 25% more grounders on balls in play. Probably, if not definitely, related: McHugh has replaced about 10% of his fastballs with sliders. With regard to the Padres, the current UZR figures — published on the site for the first time last night — suggest that San Diego has had predictable difficulties in converting batted balls into outs. Despite that, the club features a 30% chance currently of qualifying for the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Probably Houston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: International Concerns with Kiley McDaniel

Episode 555
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses a recent pro scouting trip to Montgomery, some notable high-school prospects, and the current state of the international market.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 12 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


The Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Since the middle of March, the author has published each week a statistical report designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have enthusiasm for collegiate baseball, if not actually expert knowledge of it. These posts have served as a means by which one might broadly detect which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

What follows is another edition of that same thing, updated through Thursday.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

Read the rest of this entry »