Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 21:10 ET
Sonny Gray (190.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 2.7 WAR) faces Felix Hernandez (212.0 IP, 69 xFIP-, 5.7 WAR). After the latter club’s victory over the former last night in Seattle (box), here’s how much the Mariners’ odds of qualifying for a wild-card spot increased: from 42.5% to 55.3%. And here’s how much the Athletics’ decreased: from 91.2% to 88.9%. Finally — and not entirely relevantly — here’s which pitcher both Steamer and ZiPS project to finish just ahead of Felix Hernandez on the American League WAR leaderboard: father of the American Neo-Transcendentalist movement Corey Kluber.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 483
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect writer for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses, among other important issues, the 2015 draft.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Seattle | 22:10 ET
Jason Hammel (162.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR) faces James Paxton (53.0 IP, 88 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). No club besides Washington currently possesses a higher projected rest-of-season winning percentage than Oakland — a statement, that, which seems unlikely for a team that is 3-11 over its last four series, the latter two of which series featured solidly below-average opponents (the Astros and White Sox). Only the Angels, though, have produced a better platonic record according to BaseRuns, which metric removes the influence of chaining. Tonight they face one of their primary rivals for the second wild-card spot in the American League.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Chicago AL | 14:10 ET
Scott Kazmir (165.2 IP, 73 xFIP-, 4.9 WAR) faces Chris Sale (155.0 IP, 73 xFIP-, 4.9 WAR). A month ago, it seemed nearly a foregone conclusion that the A’s would finish the season having not only won the AL West, but also having recorded the league’s highest win total by an impressive margin. Regard, by way of illustration, the following table, which features the top-five clubs by expected wins as of August 10th:

Now regard, as evidence of Oakland’s difficulties over the past month, this second table — which features the top-five clubs by expected wins as of this morning:

One notes that, over that same month-long interval during which Anaheim a record of 22-6, Oakland went only 9-19 in terms of wins and losses. As of this morning, no club features odds of reaching the divisional series (i.e. the real playoffs) closer to 50% than the A’s.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 482
Dave Cameron is the managing editor of FanGraphs. Jeff Passan is a baseball columnist for Yahoo! Sports. Together, they are the two-headed monster guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, which concerns very much the methodology of Wins Above Replacement.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Introduction
The Fringe Five has been a weekly exercise (introduced last April) conducted by the author this year with a view to identifying the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers excluded from three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists — Baseball America‘s, ESPN prospect writer Keith Law‘s, and also FanGraphs prospect writer Marc Hulet’s — and then the respective mid-season updates of each. Every week during the minor-league season, the author submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Detroit | 19:08 ET
James Shields (200.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR) faces Rick Porcello (183.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 3.1 WAR). It’s the case for athletes, generally, that the extent of their celebrations correlates strongly with the height of the leverage of the encounter from which they’ve just emerged successfully — that the celebration is, in large part, an expression of relief. To what degree the following clip of Joe Nathan differs from those other times when he’s recorded a save, the author can’t say. That Nathan’s celebration occurs just after having weathered the highest leverage index for him (4.43) since August 9th — against a Kansas City club with whom Detroit is effectively tied in the standings — this is all an example of fact.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 481
David Temple is an IT professional, contributor both to FanGraphs and NotGraphs, and now editor of TechGraphs. It’s with a view towards promoting the last of those weblogs that he appears on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Detroit | 19:18 ET
Jason Vargas (169.0 IP, 105 xFIP-, 2.8 WAR) faces Max Scherzer (193.2 IP, 80 xFIP-, 5.0 WAR). Following Detroit’s win over Kansas City yesterday (box), the latter simultaneously trails the former by a game in the standings but now also leads by about three percentage points in the playoff odds. One notes that the aforementioned figures do not include the curiously suspended game between Cleveland and KC, which the latter is likely to lose. Pitching for the Tigers is Max Scherzer, whom some would argue is a candidate for the Cy Young award, while others would argue he’s not, while still others would prefer to stab themselves in the genitals than engage in that particular conversation.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 480
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he addresses a question posed most notably by a Vietnam War-era soul hit.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS