Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Ryan Vogelsong (127.2 IP, 104 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces Yovani Gallardo (135.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). Entering play yesterday, the Giants and Brewers featured the first and third least certain postseason futures, respectively. Following the latter club’s 4-3 victory yesterday (box), the situation has changed slightly — insofar, that is, as the Giants and Brewers now feature the first and second least certain postseason futures, respectively. San Francisco now possesses a 48.3% chance of qualifying for the divisional series; Milwaukee, a 39.3% chance — the two figures, those, closest to 50% among the league’s 30 teams.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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What follows represents an attempt by the author to utilize the projections available at the site to identify the five starting pitchers whose per-inning WAR projections have most improved since the beginning of the season.

For every pitcher, what I’ve done is first to calculate his preseason (PRE) WAR projection prorated to 150 innings, averaging together Steamer and ZiPS forecasts where both are available. What I’ve done next is to calculate the prorated WAR for every pitcher’s rest-of-season (ROS) WAR projection (again, using both Steamer and ZiPS when available). I’ve then found the difference in prorated WAR between the preseason and rest-of-season projection.

Only those pitchers have been considered who (a) are currently on a major-league roster and (b) have recorded at least 50 innings at the major-league level and 20 innings this season and (c) are expected to work predominantly as a starter for the duration of the season. Note that PRE denotes a player’s combined Steamer and ZiPS preseason projection; ROS, the rest-of-season projection. Diff is difference between the prorated ROS projections and the PRE one. Data is current as of Tuesday.

5. Chase Anderson, RHP, Arizona (Profile)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Milwaukee | 20:10 ET
Tim Lincecum (128.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Jimmy Nelson (23.0 IP, 111 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). No team’s postseason future is less clear at the moment than the Giants’, which club enters Tuesday with 51.9% odds of making the divisional series. Nor are the Brewers very different in this regard: despite a 1.0- and 1.5-game lead over St. Louis and Pittsburgh, respectively, in the NL Central, the Milwaukees currently feature just 37.4% odds of reaching the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

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Episode 468
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the very recent and busy trade deadline.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

The Playoff-Odds Adjustment: A Tiresome Explanation
The amount of time and energy dedicated by the present author to the construction of a formula which reveals the aesthetic promise of a pitcher or team or game — it’s absurd, this, and unbecoming of a human man. The endeavor itself? A case study in myopia, assuredly. And yet, because he’s a person without sense, the author whittled away a few more hours from his finite time on earth this weekend by working to make the aforementioned formula(e) more complicated and obscure — in this case, by employing a suggestion provided by reader DavidKB from last week. The suggestion: to apply a playoff-odds adjustment to each day’s NERD game scores not just over the last month-plus of the season, but all season long. And second: to weight that playoff-odds adjustment on a scale relative to the number of games remaining until the end of the season.

What follows is a tiresome explanation of how the author has done that.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at New York NL | 13:10 ET*
Madison Bumgarner (145.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 2.3 WAR) faces Bartolo Colon (141.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR). Because the author’s presence is required in southern Michigan even as he writes these words in the northern part of that same long state, he’s unable to provide an entirely detailed explanation for why today’s Giants and Mets contest is today’s most highly rated. In brief, however, what I’ve done is to employ a suggestion provided by reader DavidKB from last week — a suggestion to apply a playoff-odds adjustment all season long, but to weight that adjustment on a scale relative to the number of games remaining until the end of the season. So now teams which possess a chance of making the divisional series very close to 33% are likely to also possess a higher team NERD score.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Basically All of Them.

*It appears as though, after updating John Lackey’s team from Boston to St. Louis, that today’s most highly rated game is actually Milwaukee at St. Louis — largely owing to how the clubs possess 41.4% and 50.8% odds, respectively, of reaching the divisional series. All other notes are relevant, however.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Kansas City at Oakland | 16:05 ET
Jason Vargas (125.0 IP, 107 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR) faces Jon Lester (143.0 IP, 79 xFIP-, 4.5 WAR). While regarded both far and also wide as infallible, the NERD scores utilized here for the purposes of determining the day’s most compelling games do not, as a practice, account for the debut of a talented pitcher for the team to which he’s been recently been traded at the deadline. As such, Jon Lester’s debut for Oakland wouldn’t ordinarily be distinguished as today’s most highly rated game. Using the sort of Discretion, however, which has earned him the attention of many women and the envy of just as many men, the author has applied an adjustment to this game of +2 points — a sum which, coincidentally or not, earns it the day’s top score.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

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Episode 467
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio — which episode has been characterized by certain parties as “an orgy of remorse and disgust.”

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 2 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.astro

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles AL at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
Matt Shoemaker (76.1 IP, 81 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Jeremy Hellickson (9.0 IP, 121 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). In all of July, the former walked only three batters over 22.1 innings — this, while striking out 24. Nor was that performance particularly out of character for Shoemaker: among the 205 pitchers to have recorded 20-plus innings as a starter this year, Shoemaker has produced the 11th-best park-adjusted xFIP — just behind the recently traded David Price and just ahead of the also recently traded Jon Lester.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Julio Teheran (149.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 2.4 WAR) faces Clayton Kershaw (112.1 IP, 51 xFIP-, 4.1 WAR). The latter continues to have recorded the best single-season park-adjusted xFIP among all qualifiers since 2002 — i.e. the first year for which that kind of metric is available. Here’s who’s second: the 2002 version of Curt Schilling (52 xFIP-). And here’s who’s third: the 2002 version of Randy Johnson (57 xFIP-).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Radio.

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