Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Arizona | 16:10 ET
Madison Bumgarner (94.2 IP, 78 xFIP-, 1.9 WAR) faces Michael Bolsinger (30.0 IP, 83 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR). While the virtues of the former are mostly conspicuous, one notes that the latter has produced excellent fielding-independent numbers, as well, including strikeout and walk rates of 20.1% and 5.8%, respectively, and a park-adjusted xFIP nearly 20% better than league average. Of note regarding Bolsinger: his cutter (ca. 65%) and curveball (ca. 33%) account for nearly 100% of the pitches he’s thrown this season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Oakland | 16:05 ET
Rubby de la Rosa (25.1 IP, 76 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Jesse Chavez (86.0 IP, 89 xFIP-, 1.4 WAR). The former has been excellent over four starts for the Red Sox — those starts, incidentally, representing the first he’s made at the major-league level since 2011. Among the pitchers who have recorded 20-plus innings as a starter, de la Rosa’s park-adjusted xFIP (76 xFIP-), swinging-strike rate (11.2%), and average fastball velocity (94.4 mph) are all more than a standard deviation better than the mean.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston Radio.

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Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

For reasons that remain opaque even to himself, the author has composed the present edition of the Watch by, first, searching the internet for instances of the phrase “bugs bunny changeup” since April 1st of the currently year and then, second, identifying which of the changeups in question belonged to pitchers who are both rookie-eligible and also tied to a major-league organization at some level. The five prospects who follow are the resulting results.

Note: players marked with an asterisk (*) are recent draftees who remain unsigned.

Jeff Antigua, LHP, Chicago Cubs (Profile)
Who He Is
A native of Santo Domingo and current 24-year-old left-hander in the Cubs system.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Washington | 19:10 ET
Mike Minor (53.0 IP, 95 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR) faces Stephen Strasburg (94.0 IP, 66 xFIP-, 2.6 WAR). The latter has produced a park-adjusted xFIP (66 xFIP-), swinging-strike rate (12.0%), overall strike rate (67.5%), and average fastball velocity (94.3 mph) all at least one standard deviation better than the mean among those pitchers who’ve recorded 20-plus innings as a starter. He’s also one of just seven pitchers projected to produce a WAR of 2.0 or greater over the remaining three-plus months of the season.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh | 12:35 ET
Homer Bailey (84.2 IP, 93 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR) faces Jeff Locke (20.1 IP, 72 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR). The latter, who notably outperformed his mediocre fielding-independent numbers for much of last season’s first half, has produced decidedly not mediocre ones of those (see: 17 strikeouts vs. 1 walk) through three starts and 20.1 innings. According both to the present site’s PITCHf/x data and also Brooks Baseball’s, Locke has increased his sinker usage considerably (to the near exclusion of his four-seamer) while also throwing the changeup more often.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cincinnati Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh (Profile)
Level: MLB   Age: 22   Top-15: 1st   Top-100: 17th
Line: 37 PA, 5.4% BB, 13.5% K, .371/.405/.457 (.414 BABIP), 147 wRC+, 0.3 WAR

Brief Introductory Note
Very celebrated Pittsburgh outfield prospect Gregory Polanco made his major-league debut last Tuesday. So far as assessing what sort of player Polanco is, that week of data isn’t overwhelmingly helpful. Moreoever, the author isn’t the sort of person who’s qualified to make substantive comments regarding a batter’s swing mechanics or the most likely way in which said batter’s body will develop.

What I can do, however, is utilize a couple of tools available here at the site and render some relevant footage into GIF form.

What follows is a brief examination of Polanco’s first week in the majors utilizing those same skills — with a view towards reviewing, for entertainment purposes only, Polanco’s best and worst moments afield and at the plate.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Seattle at San Diego | 22:10 ET
Felix Hernandez (106.1 IP, 64 xFIP-, 4.0 WAR) faces Andrew Cashner (69.1 IP, 87 xFIP-, 1.5 WAR). The former, despite the heights of his previously established levels, is projected both by Steamer and ZiPS to record the best single-season WAR mark of his career. The latter, whose heights have been less high, is nevertheless also projected to produce his top WAR mark.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio?

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What follows is an exercise not very different from that one performed on a slightly larger scale by the author at the very beginning of the season and more modestly about a month ago. As was the case with those posts, this one represents an attempt to identify the rookie-eligible players* who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). What it is not is an attempt to account for any kind of future value — for which reason it’s unlikely to resemble very closely those prospect lists which are typically released by more qualified writers at the beginning and middle of the season.

*In this case, defined as any player who’s recorded fewer than 130 at-bats or 50 innings — which is to say, there’s been no attempt to identify each player’s time spent on the active roster, on account of that’s a super tedious endeavor.

To assemble the following collection of 10 prospects, what I’ve done first is to calculate prorated rest-of-season WAR figures for all players for whom either the Steamer or ZiPS projection systems have produced such a forecast. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce approximately a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

Owing to how the two systems are structured, the majority of the numbers which follow represent only the relevant prospect’s Steamer projection. Players eligible for the list either (a) enter their age-26 season or lower in 2014 or, alternatively, (b) were signed as international free agents this offseason.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Toronto at New York AL | 19:05 ET
Marcus Stroman (24.1 IP, 87 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) faces Masahiro Tanaka (93.2 IP, 62 xFIP-, 2.8 WAR). The latter has produced not only the highest WAR among rookie pitchers by a considerable margin, but also the third-highest WAR among all pitchers. He faces the offense which has recorded the best park-adjusted batting line among major-league clubs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio?

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