Episode 453
A native of England and current resident of Mexico City, Craig Robinson contributes both to NotGraphs and also Flip Flop Fly Ball (of which site he’s the proprietor). He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 5 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at Miami | 16:10 ET
Ervin Santana (57.2 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Jacob Turner (33.2 IP, 100 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR) in a contest that features two of the league’s most appealing clubs, according to the probably wrong metric devised by the author. The Atlantans, for their part, have produced the league’s most excellent relief pitching numbers and second-best defensive-run figures; the Miamis, a cumulative hitting line among the league’s top third despite featuring a roster which earns that same league’s lowest collective payroll.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Madison Bumgarner (65.2 IP, 79 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR) faces Adam Wainwright (81.0 IP, 77 xFIP-, 2.2 WAR). While a reasonable person might suppose otherwise, the innings figure published here for Wainwright actually is not a misprint: indeed, he (and three other pitchers, it appears) has already crossed the 80-inning threshold. Another threshold he’s crossed (alone in this case) is the three-win one — when calculating WAR by means of runs allowed, that is, and not FIP.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Gerrit Cole (64.2 IP, 91 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Dan Haren (62.2 IP, 89 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR). The former, according to PITCHf/x, has produced the third-highest average fastball velocity this season (95.6 mph) among 101 qualified pitchers. For a moment’s worth of amusement attempt to guess the first two pitchers by that same measure. Afterwards, resume your wild search for distractions from the abyss.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cincinnati at Los Angeles NL | 22:10 ET
Homer Bailey (57.1 IP, 96 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Clayton Kershaw (28.1 IP, 53 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR). The latter, after recording a single-game 5.39 xFIP and conceding seven runs over 1.2 innings in Arizona (box), much more resembled his true self this last Friday in Philadelphia, during which start he produced a 9:3 strikeout-to-ratio over 6.0 decidedly scoreless innings (other box).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles NL Television.

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Episode 452
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he really analyzes the sport of baseball.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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What follows represents an attempt by the author to utilize the projections available at the site to identify the five major-league hitters whose wOBA projections have most improved since the beginning of the season.

For every batter, what I’ve done is first to calculate his preseason (PRE) wOBA projection, averaging together Steamer and ZiPS forecasts where both are available. What I’ve done next is to calculate every hitter’s rest-of-season (ROS) wOBA projection (again, using both Steamer and ZiPS when available). I’ve then found the difference in wOBA between the preseason and rest-of-season projection.

When I attempted a similar exercise last month (with WAR, in that case), I used updated end-of-season projections instead of rest-of-season ones. The advantage of the latter (and why I’m using it here) is that it provides the closest available thing to an estimate of any given player’s current true-talent level — which, reason dictates, is what one requires to best identify those players who have most improved.

Only those hitters have been considered who both (a) are currently on a major-league roster and (b) weren’t accidentally omitted by the author, who is a moron. Note that Projection denotes a composite Steamer and ZiPS projection. PRE denotes the player’s preseason projection; ROS, the rest-of-season projection. Plate-appearances estimates for both PRE and ROS projections are taken from relevant batter’s depth-chart projection. Data is current as of Monday.

5. Devin Mesoraco, C, Cincinnati (Profile)
Projection (PRE): 413 PA, .247/.308/.413 (.274 BABIP), .313 wOBA, 96 wRC+
Projection (ROS): 240 PA, .260/.320/.438 (.288 BABIP), .330 wOBA, 107 wRC+

Notes
In 160-plus career starts for the club, Mesoraco has served as Cincinnati’s cleanup hitter just three times. In five starts since last Monday, Mesoraco has also served as Cincinnati’s cleanup hitter three times. In part, the loss of Jay Bruce and then (upon Bruce’s return) Joey Votto has facilitated the move. In part, it’s Mesoraco’s own production which has suggested to manager Bryan Price that his catcher ought to occupy one of the most important spots (both symbolically and actually) in the Reds lineup. Notably, Mesoraco’s plate-discipline projections haven’t improved at all. Rather, it’s his early BABIP and power-on-contact figures which have led to his more encouraging forecasts.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Jon Lester (67.0 IP, 74 xFIP-, 2.2 WAR) faces Aaron Harang (59.2 IP, 86 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR). The former has recorded a strikeout rate (27.8%) this season approximately a third higher than his already totally competent career mark. The latter — according to Wikipedia, at least — was brutally murdered by a gang of criminals and subsequently revived by the malevolent mega-corporation Omni Consumer Products (OCP) as a superhuman cyborg baseball pitcher.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at St. Louis | 16:15 ET
Chase Whitley (9.0 IP, 95 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Michael Wacha (60.1 IP, 81 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR). With regard to the latter, former and beloved contributor to these pages Mike Axisa — who, it should be said, knows from freaky — makes the following internet observation:

2013 Wacha vs. 2014 Wacha is kinda freaky: http://t.co/eHS1ODw1eM

— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) May 25, 2014

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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