Episode 451
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the guest on this regrettable edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 19 min play time.)

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Seattle | 16:10 ET
Dallas Keuchel (61.2 IP, 70 xFIP-, 1.6) faces Hisashi Iwakuma (30.2 IP, 82 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR). Were the reader interested in regarding two of the major leagues’ most productive pitches this afternoon, he or she has the opportunity to do so by way of the present game. The former’s two-seam fastball has created more pitch-type runs than any other starters’ who’s also recorded at 30 innings. Meanwhile, despite having missed all of April, the latter has produced the third-most such runs by way of his splitter.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Whatever Whatever Whatever.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Piitsburgh | 19:10 ET
Stephen Strasburg (61.1 IP, 67 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) faces Gerrit Cole (58.2 IP, 89 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) — which pitchers are ranked ninth and fourth, respectively, by average fastball velocity among qualified starters. Regarding Strasburg, specifically, both his Steamer and ZiPS updated end-of-season lines indicate that he’s likely to surpass his career-best 4.1 WAR mark from 2012.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Boston at Tampa Bay | 19:10 ET
John Lackey (58.1 IP, 87 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) faces Chris Archer (51.0 IP, 97 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). The former, one finds, has actually improved upon the surprising strikeout and walk figures he recorded last season, having produced rates of 22.9% and 5.3%, respectively, through nine starts. Of note regarding Lackey’s field-playing teammates: it appears as though, among that group, that young shortstop Xander Bogaerts has produced the highest WAR figure, tied with others at 1.1 wins.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Tampa Bay | 16:10 ET
Sonny Gray (60.0 IP, 89 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) faces Alex Cobb (19.0 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR). The latter makes his first start since April 12th after suffering, and then recovering from, a left oblique strain. He struck out nine of the 17 batters he faced — which is to say more than half of them — during a rehab start for the High-A Charlotte Stone Crabs (box). No substantive footage exists of the game; however, it does exist of this fisherman removing the claws from actual stone crabs.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Brandon McCarthy (55.2 IP, 72 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR) faces Michael Wacha (54.1 IP, 78 xFIP-, 1.2 WAR). While the former has conceded almost precisely five earned runs for every nine innings recorded this season, he’s produced the fielding-independent numbers of a pitcher who’d generally allow runs at about half that rate. McCarthy’s strikeout-walk differential (18.0%) is currently twice his career average while his ground-ball rate (54.1%) is also considerably higher than previously established levels.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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What follows represents an attempt by the author to utilize the projections available at the site to identify the five starting pitchers whose per-inning WAR projections have most improved since the beginning of the season.

For every pitcher, what I’ve done is first to calculate his preseason (PRE) WAR projection prorated to 150 innings, averaging together Steamer and ZiPS forecasts where both are available. What I’ve done next is to calculate the prorated WAR for every pitcher’s rest-of-season (ROS) WAR projection (again, using both Steamer and ZiPS when available). I’ve then found the difference in prorated WAR between the preseason and rest-of-season projection.

When I attempted a similar exercise last month, I used updated end-of-season projections instead of prorated rest-of-season ones. The advantage of the latter (and why I’m using it here) is that it provides the closest available thing to an estimate of any given player’s current true-talent level — which, reason dictates, is what one requires to best identify those players who have most improved.

Only those pitchers have been considered who (a) are currently on a major-league roster and (b) have recorded at least 20 innings at the major-league level and (c) are expected to work predominantly as a starter for the duration of the season. Note that Projection denotes a composite Steamer and ZiPS projection. PRE denotes the player’s preseason projection; ROS, the rest-of-season projection. Inning estimates for both PRE and ROS projections are taken from relevant pitcher’s depth-chart innings projection. Data is current as of some time in the middle of the night between Monday and Tuesday.

5. Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto (Profile)
Projection (PRE): 115 IP, 7.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.38 FIP, 1.1 WAR
Projection (ROS): 132 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 1.7 WAR

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Chicago NL | 19:10 ET
Masahiro Tanaka (58.0 IP, 58 xFIP-, 1.6 WAR) faces Jason Hammel (53.0 IP, 96 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). The former has produced the second-best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualified starters, and the absolute best park-adjusted xFIP among all qualified starters who haven’t also recently destroyed both their UCLs and, while so doing, the illusions of many who believed in the permanence of beauty.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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Episode 450
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he responds to his response to the Boston Globe’s Bob Ryan.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min play time.)

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