Author Archive

NERD Game Scores for Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Tampa Bay at Seattle | 22:10 ET
David Price (53.2 IP, 71 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Hisashi Iwakuma (14.2 IP, 69 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). The former, despite having recorded an average fastball velocity over 1 mph lower than last year’s mark — which itself was 2 mph lower than his career-high 95.5 mph fastball average in 2012 — the former, despite all that, has pitched brilliantly thus far in 2014. To wit: both Price’s strikeout rate and walk rate are currently better than his previously established career-best marks by those same measures.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes New Baseball

Episode 448
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes the baseball that’s there and also the baseball that isn’t.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

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Prospect Watch: First-Rounders Who Didn’t Play in 2013

Each weekday during the minor-league season, FanGraphs is providing a status update on multiple rookie-eligible players. Note that Age denotes the relevant prospect’s baseball age (i.e. as of July 1st of the current year); Top-15, the prospect’s place on Marc Hulet’s preseason organizational list; and Top-100, that same prospect’s rank on Hulet’s overall top-100 list.

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Of the 33 players selected in the first round of last year’s amateur draft, 30 of them recorded either a plate appearance or inning pitched at the professional level. What follows is a brief report on the three who didn’t do that.

Phil Bickford, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (Profile)
Level: College   Age: 18   Top-15: N/A   Top-100: N/A
Line: 64.1 IP, 9.1 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.28 HR/9, 2.24 ERA

Summary
The only unsigned draftee from last year, Bickford is pitching effectively (although perhaps with less velocity) in a hybrid role for Cal State Fullerton.

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NERD Game Scores for Monday, May 12, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Atlanta at San Francisco | 22:15 ET
Gavin Floyd (7.0 IP, 82 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR) faces Tim Lincecum (35.2 IP, 89 xFIP-, 0.0 WAR). The former was effective against St. Louis last Tuesday in his return to the majors following Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab, recording a 5:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 52.6% ground-ball rate in 7.0 inning (box). With regard to the Braves and Giants as clubs, they represent two of the five teams in the National League currently with a greater than 50% chance of qualifying for the divisional series.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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NERD Game Scores for Sunday, May 11, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Arizona at Chicago AL | 14:10 ET
Chase Anderson (39.0 IP, 26.0% K, 4.1% BB at Double-A) faces Hector Noesi (16.1 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). The former’s difficulties as a starter in Triple-A last season suggest that concerns about his lack of armspeed might be warranted, so far as dealing with advanced hitters is concerned. What Anderson does offer, however, is a changeup that’s probably sweeter than lugduname — which compound (i.e. lugduname) appears to have been developed at the University of Lyon in 1996 and is “220,000 [to] 300,000 times as sweet as sucrose (table sugar).”

An example of said changeup:

Anderson 1

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Arizona Radio or Television?

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NERD Game Scores for Saturday, May 10, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
Chicago NL at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Jeff Samardzija (50.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Ervin Santana (33.2 IP, 69 xFIP-, 0.8 WAR). A brief inspection of the present site’s leaderboard feature reveals not only that the former has definitely reached the 50-inning threshold this season, but so have 15 other pitchers already. “Like sands through the hour glass,” one is compelled to muse, “so are the games of the 2014 baseball season.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

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NERD Game Scores for Friday, May 9, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated Game
St. Louis at Pittsburgh | 19:05 ET
Michael Wacha (42.1 IP, 82 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Francisco Liriano (37.2 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR). The former has improved upon both the (average-ish) zone and (above-average) swinging-strike rates he recorded last year in about a third of a season’s worth of starts. Of note with regard to Pittsburgh is the performance thus far of Pedro Alvarez. After four consecutive seasons of having recorded strikeout rates between 30% and 31%, the very powerful third baseman has posted just a 21.1% mark in a ca. 150 plate appearances — including walk and strikeout rates of 13.8% and 10.3%, respectively, over the past week.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: St. Louis Radio.

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FanGraphs Audio: Mike Petriello’s Tragic Illness

Episode 447
Mike Petriello is the founder of Dodgers Digest (née Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness) and a contributor to FanGraphs. He’s also the guest on this edition of the podcast.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 5 min play time.)

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NERD Game Scores for Thursday, May 8, 2014

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

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Most Highly Rated and MLB.TV Free Game
Houston at Detroit | 13:08 ET
Dallas Keuchel (36.1 IP, 80 xFIP-, 0.7 WAR) faces Drew Smyly (22.0 IP, 85 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR). The former, in addition to having produced entirely serviceable strikeout and walk figures, appears also to have recorded thus far the highest ground-ball rate among the league’s 107 qualified pitchers. His two-seamer and changeup have themselves induced grounders more than 75% of the time they’ve been batted into fair ground — considerably higher, in both cases, than the league averages by each pitch type, according to work recently done by the absurdly coiffed Eno Sarris.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet.

NERD Thing

Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Kevin Correia MIN 0 5 4 5 7 CLE J. Masterson 12:05
Dallas Keuchel HOU 8 6 7 4 7 DET Drew Smyly* 13:08
A.J. Burnett PHI 2 3 5 6 7 TOR R.A. Dickey 19:07
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 3 3 6 7 9 TB David Price 19:10
Franklin Morales COL 4 9 5 3 5 TEX Matt Harrison* 20:05
Jake Arrieta* CHN 6 4 5 3 4 CHA Scott Carroll* 20:10
Danny Duffy* KC 6 3 6 4 7 SEA H. Iwakuma* 22:10
Jacob Turner* MIA 4 9 6 3 7 SD Ian Kennedy 22:10
Ryan Vogelsong SF 0 7 3 5 5 LAN Josh Beckett 22:10

To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.


The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced last April by the present author, wherein that same ridiculous author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists* and also (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on the midseason prospect lists produced by those same notable sources or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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