On Monday, Matt Eddy of Baseball America released his weekly report of minor-league transactions. On Tuesday, the present author pored over said report, with a view to identifying which players on it might have received favorable 2014 projections from Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. On Wednesday, he (i.e. that same author) has written and published the following Hall of Fame internet post.

Projections for batters are prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers); for pitchers, to 150 innings (and 50 for relievers). Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Pitcher WAR is calculated by using kwERA, so as to best strip out park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014.

Below are the three notable minor-league acquisitions of the week that aren’t the Chicago Cubs’ acquisition of former Cleveland right-hander Paolo Espino.

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Episode 404
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them serviceable and one of them, against all odds, something more than serviceable. He’s also the guest on this largely unhelpful edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 11 min play time.)

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Episode 403
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes as many of the recent transactions as he can tolerate.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

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At the end of last week, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the D-backs or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Chicago AL / Miami / Seattle.

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For much the same reason that he published weekly statistical reports on the Arizona Fall League over the past month-plus (such as the very final one from Wednesday), the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transport and lodging.

In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, Puerto Rican, and Venezuelan Winter Leagues separately. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a triumvirate of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013; all organizations, as of the end of regular-season play. Last week’s generally useful report on the Caribbean leagues is available here.

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Episode 402
Nathaniel Stoltz is a very thoughtful prospect writer for FanGraphs et al. He’s also the guest on this terribly pleasant edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 48 min play time.)

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Despite the fact that they are generally cited as probably providing little in the way of predictive power, the batting lines of prospects in the Arizona Fall League are also frequently cited by baseball writers in discussions of those same prospects. Nor is this entirely surprising: one wants to make some sort of comment about Kris Bryant, for example, who’s just finished his own AFL season with six home runs and a .727 slugging percentage. Even after noting that he recorded those figures in just 92 plate appearances, one is compelled to suggest that Bryant’s performance was impressive. And it was, certainly, within the context of the 2013 season of the Arizona Fall League.

The present author, attempting to behave somewhat responsibly, has produced statistical reports for the AFL this fall which utilize an offensive metric (called SCOUT+) that combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+. By isolating and regressing those metrics (i.e. not BABIP) which become reliable in smaller samples, one reasons, it’s possible to reduce the noise otherwise present in slash lines — and perhaps to better identify how performances from the AFL might inform future major-league production.

“How successful is this (theoretically) more responsible and (definitely) more nerdy attempt to measure AFL production, to the extent that it might hold within it some manner of predictive power?” one might, perhaps already has, wondered. “Not very,” appears to be the answer.

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The author has published a weekly statistical report for the Arizona Fall League each week since its brief season commenced back in October — not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows is the entirely last statistical report for the AFL, following that league’ championship game this past Saturday.

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The polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet — with assistance from celebrity guest Jason Churchill — has published today his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Seattle Mariners.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Mariners or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other Prospect Projections: Chicago AL / Miami.

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Episode 401
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes age curves, particularly as they relate to speed-oriented players such as free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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