As Miami infielder Ed Lucas himself has reminded the author, Miami infielder Ed Lucas ought to be included among the minor-league free agents who recorded a 0.5 WAR or better in 2013. Lucas had previously been employed by the Angels.

Such authorities on the matter as Paul the Apostle and late American singer Whitney Houston have suggested — sometimes in more, sometimes in fewer words — that love is the greatest gift of all. It’s quite possibly the case, that. Actually testing the hypothesis presents difficulties, of course. That said, one hears few arguments to the contrary.

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The author has published each of the last four weeks (One, Two, Three, Four), in these pages, a statistical report on the Arizona Fall League not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows, for the pleasure of the readership, is the fifth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report.

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Recently, for the electronic pages of Baseball America, Therron Brockish provided a scouting report from the Arizona Fall League on Boston third-base prospect Garin Cecchini. As part of that report, Brockish graded each of Cecchini’s tools on the 20-80 scale (or 2-8 scale, depending) commonly utilized by scouts, where 50 represents major-league average and every 10 points is equal roughly to a standard deviation from same.

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Episode 396
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes the baseball that is and also the baseball that isn’t.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 29 min play time.)

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Episode 395
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes the last fleeting moments of the recently concluded 2013 baseball season.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 31 min play time.)

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For much the same reason that he has published statistical reports of varying degrees of maturity for the Arizona Fall League over the past several weeks, the author is publishing here a combined statistical report for the various Caribbean winter leagues that have started play — again, not necessarily because such reports are of great utility for evaluating players, but because they provide a means by which to participate in those leagues which doesn’t also require a substantial investment in transportation and lodging.

In this case, what the author has done is to identify the regressed hitting and pitching leaders in the Dominican Winter, Mexican Pacific, and Venezuelan Leagues separately*. What he’s then done is to combine the hitting and pitching leaders of those leagues into a pair of top-10 lists, which one can find below. Note: all ages are as of July 1, 2013.

*The fourth major Caribbean league, the Puerto Rican League, doesn’t commence until tomorrow.

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Over the past three weeks, the author has published an entirely premature statistical report and then a slightly less premature one of those and then, most recently, an almost not premature statistical report on the Arizona Fall League — not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.

What follows is fourth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report — itself something that is become increasingly relevant for reasons the author would be embarrassed to note for someone as smart as the reader.

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Yesterday, in these electronic pages, the author presented five notable major-league equivalent batter lines (MLE) as calculated by Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. Today, the author presents a very similar thing, except for pitchers.

Indeed, below are five notable pitcher MLEs from the 2013 season, where notable appears to be defined as belonging to a player who (a) was 27 or younger in 2013, (b) received little (or nothing) in the way of major-league playing time in 2013, (c) received little (or nothing) in the way of exposure in 2013, and (d) recorded over half his appearances as a starter.

For each pitcher are included his translated strikeout and walk rates according to Steamer, and the kwERA that such rates would produce. Following that (and marked by an asterisk to denote that the author has taken terrible, terrible liberties with the Steamer data) is an estimate of the relevant pitcher’s translated WAR over 150 innings.

Name: Paolo Espino, 26, RHP (Link)
Organization: Cleveland Level: Triple-A (International)
MLE: 62.0 IP, 267 TBF, 21.8% K, 7.5% BB, 3.68 kwERA, 2.5 WAR150*
Notes: A brief inspection of Espino’s player page reveals that he has spent the past four years splitting time between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. Not a ringing endorsement, that, for a 26-year-old pitcher. He finished the season, however, by recording a 38:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over five starts and 29.0 innings for the latter club — i.e. a more promising thing. Reports on Espino’s present repertoire appear to be entirely absent from the internet. An inning’s worth of video from Espino’s August 26th start against Louisville (during which start he posted a 7:0 K:BB in 6.2 IP) reveals that the right-hander at least throws a curveball with which minor-leaguers have some difficulty.

Like here, to Louisville’s Denis Phipps for a strikeout:

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In his capacity as a VIP baseball writer, the present author has access to the glorious major-league equivalent (MLE) data produced by Jared Cross’s Steamer projection system. In his capacity as a very irresponsible citizen, the present author has decided to present here five notable batter MLEs from the 2013 season, where notable appears to be defined as belonging to a player who (a) was 27 or younger in 2013, (b) received little (or nothing) in the way of major-league playing time in 2013, and also (c) received little (or nothing) in the way of exposure in 2013.

It’s for the second and third reasons there that players such as Seattle’s Nick Franklin, Minnesota’s Miguel Sano, and Houston’s George Springer — despite all having produced formidable MLE lines — are absent from the following.

Offensive and defensive value (denoted as Off and Def, respectively) are expressed relative to league average. Offensive value accounts for baserunning, in addition to batting. Defensive value accounts both for defensive runs and positional adjustment. Both metrics were recently explored by Dave Cameron in these pages.

All figures marked by an asterisk (*) denote instances in which the author has taken terrible, terrible liberties with the Steamer data. Overall baserunning value, for example, has been estimated irresponsibly using Steamer’s translated stolen-base data. Fielding and positional values, moreover, have been estimated even more irresponsibly according to positional adjustment, available defensive metrics, and scouting reports. WAR550, meanwhile, is an estimate of the player’s translated WAR over 550 plate appearances.

Name: Abraham Almonte, 24, OF (Link)
Organization: Seattle Level: Triple-A (Pacific Coast)
MLE: 396 PA, .289/.361/.429 (.329 BABIP), +11 Off*, -2 Def*, 3.4 WAR550*
Notes: Almonte might very well end up belonging to that class of outfielders who has neither the speed native to center fielders nor the power typically attendant to corner outfielders, but one who simultaneously provides value to his club, nonetheless. He controlled the plate excellently at Triple-A Tacoma, recording walk and strikeout rates there of 12.4% and 16.7%, respectively. He did that less excellently in 82 late-season plate appearances with the Mariners (7.3% BB, 25.6% K), although still managed a roughly league-average batting line over that stretch.

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Episode 394
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he analyzes the brains and minds of Mike Matheny and John Farrell, predominantly.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 34 min play time.)

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