Author Archive

FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry Elevates the Conversation

Episode 770
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the serious guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 77 min play time.)

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FanGraphs Audio: The Planned Obsolescence of the Soft-Tosser

Episode 769
The guest on this edition of the program, managing editor Dave Cameron, has a new MacBook. He can’t use it to record the podcast, however, because his mic has a USB cable; his new computer, only USB-C ports. It’s a case of planned obsolescence in action. How might that concept apply to baseball? Is there a type of player likely to be rendered obsolete? Cameron’s short answer: “Yes.” His longer answer: that’s the content of this episode of the podcast.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)

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FanGraphs Audio: The Next Great Cardinals Non-Prospect

Episode 768
If a general manager were guaranteed that an amateur prospect would produce two-and-half wins in the majors just two years after joining an organization, that general manager would almost certainly draft the relevant prospect in the first round — if not among the the top-10 or even top-five picks of that first round. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has recorded two-and-a-half wins in the majors two years after being drafted — and yet was selected in the fourth round out of Illinois State. DeJong, Jose Martinez, and Tommy Pham entered the season with fewer than two career wins between them; they’ve produced more than 9.0 WAR, however, in 2017. Who’s the next great Cardinals non-prospect? Eric Longenhagen speculates on this and a number of other concerns.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 16 min play time.)

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2017 Fringe Five: Summary and Results and Discussion

Introduction
The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise (introduced a few years ago) conducted by the author with a view to identifying and monitoring the most compelling of those rookie-eligible minor leaguers omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen — and all their attendant midseason lists, as well. Nearly every week during the minor-league season — with the exception of those immediately following the birth of his loud, new son — the author has submitted the names of five “compelling” minor leaguers, each name attended by a brief summary of that prospect’s most relevant credentials.

Generally speaking, the word compelling has been used to designate those prospects who possessed some combination of the following:

1. Promising statistical indicators; and

2. The ability to play on the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum; and

3. Youth relative to minor-league level; and

4. A curious biographical or statistical profile.

With minor-league regular seasons now complete, the author presents here a summary and discussion of the Fringe Five for 2017.

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FanGraphs Audio: We Have No Idea About Offense Right Now

Episode 767
Matt Olson was absent from most or every top-10 prospect list for Oakland entering the season. This year, however, he’s recorded nearly two wins for the A’s in fewer than 200 plate appearances. Similarly, Philadelphia’s Rhys Hoskins and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge have defied all reasonable expectations with the bat. How is it possible that all three players — and others like them — have so thoroughly transcended their future-value estimates? Managing editor Dave Cameron does less to answer that question than raise it over and over.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/13/17

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Party status:  Started hot.

2:00
The Average Sports Fan: Will the Twins be able to hold on for the 2nd wildcard?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: It’s getting closer – two games is significant with this amount of time remaining.

2:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s enough that it makes them vs. the field a coin flip or so.

2:01
Brad: will you do a hitting and pitching projection for Ohtani?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes.

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FanGraphs Audio: Your Attention, Please

Episode 766
Tim Wu argues in his book The Attention Merchants that “capturing and reselling attention has been the basic model for a large number of modern businesses.” This idea of attention is relevant to the game of baseball. Will the use of radar tracking systems allows scouts to divert more attention to the field? How do the increased responsibilities of the beat reporter remove his or her attention from the game itself? Also discussed: innovation. What if it weren’t allowed, if clubs were permitted no competitive advantages? Travis Sawchik doesn’t care for the idea. He is, nevertheless, the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 12 min play time.)

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

Fringe Five Scoreboards: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion among the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, John Sickels*, and (most importantly) lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen and also who (b) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on any updated list — such as the revised and midseason lists released by Baseball America or BP’s recent midseason top-50 list or Longenhagen’s summer update — will also be excluded from eligibility.

*All 200 names!

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Sandy Baez, RHP, Detroit (Profile)
A member of the Five back in early July, the right-handed Baez earned a promotion to Double-A Erie for his final two starts of the regular season. He acquitted himself well, striking out nearly a third of the batters he faced over 10.0 innings.

Most pitchers who record excellent statistical indicators and possess plus-plus velocity are ineligible ever to appear in this weekly column because they tend to populate top-100s lists. A combination of modest pedigree (he signed for just $49,000) and somewhat rudimentary secondary pitches, however, have conspired to create lower expectations from the industry where Baez is concerned.

In his start this past Monday, Baez showed a real willingness to use both a breaking ball and changeup, having some actual success with the latter of those.

Here’s an example of the breaking ball for a swinging strike:

And also the changeup, also for a swinging strike:

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FanGraphs Audio: The Inevitable Heat Death of Baseball

Episode 765
The 2017 season features the highest strikeout rate in the game’s history and the highest home-run rate and the highest collective fastball velocity and the most indulgent use of relief pitchers. The game, in short, is experiencing entropy — an inevitable descent into chaos or disorder. Is the destruction of the sport imminent? “Probably not,” says managing editor Dave Cameron, who uses evidence to support his claims.

A reminder: FanGraphs’ Ad Free Membership exists. Click here to learn more about it and share some of your disposable income with FanGraphs.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 51 min play time.)

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/7/17

1:58
Dan Szymborski: Chat time!

1:58
ChiSox2020: How does a rotation of Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito, Raynaldo Lopez, and Michael Kopech look in the 2nd half of 2018?

1:58
Dan Szymborski: Super-interesting at least.  I think the White Sox rotation has the upside potential to come back super quickly.

1:58
The Average Sports Fan: Are the Diamondbacks a legit matchup problem for the Dodgers or have the last couple series just been noise?

1:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a matchup problem.  Head-to-head really doesn’t provide any predictive value above-and-beyond what the team records do.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: The team-team interactions just aren’t as complex as they are in football or basketball.

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