Author Archive

Three Lessons from Collin McHugh’s Monday Start

Collin McHugh’s nine-strikeout debut against Colorado at the end of August (box) created reason for enthusiam apropos the Mets right-hander. His third major-league start, Monday night in Washington (box), was decidedly more challenging.

Here are three lessons regarding Collin McHugh from that same Monday start.

Lesson One: Slider Location Is Probably Important for McHugh
McHugh’s slider does not have particularly sharp break or particularly excellent velocity. As a result, he’s (a) unlikely to induce as many chase swings with it as another pitcher and (b) more likely to be punished for mistakes. As a further result, McHugh’s ability to locate his slider will have no little effect on his overall success.

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Daily Notes, Featuring SCOUT Leaders of the PCL

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A Pacific Coast League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes — to compare, for example, the performance of Colorado prospect Edwar Cabrera (31.2 IP, 29.3% K, 9.0% BB) to St. Louis’s Shelby Miller (136.2 IP, 26.7% K, 8.4% BB).

Regarding the Pacific Coast League, Its Regular Season
The Pacific Coast League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dave Cameron Analyzes All Baseball

Episode 239
FanGraphs managing editor Dave Cameron, as per usual, makes his weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio and analyzes all baseball.

Discussed:
• Operation Shutdown Stephen Strasburg, the unknown unknowns concerning it.
• The Yankees — what caused their slide, and whether those causes are still present.
• Padres left-hander Andrew Werner — former independent leaguer, present and capable major leaguer.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes, With SCOUT Leaders of the Intl. League

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

SCOUT Leaderboards: Triple-A International League
Regarding What Is SCOUT, First of All
SCOUT is a (likely absurd, admittedly unnecessary) metric designed by the author to assess performance in those instances — like in a minor league, for example — where small samples are ubiquitous.

The Offensive Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The offensive version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average — is essentially a version of wRC+, except using the three main defense-independent metrics (home-run, walk, and strikeout rates), all regressed duly*, as the inputs.

*By the method outlined here.

The Pitching Version of SCOUT, How It’s Calculated
The pitching version of SCOUT — represented as SCOUT-, where 100 is league average and below 100 represents above-average run prevention — is calculated using a version of kwERA, with regressed strikeout and walk rates as the relevant inputs.

Regarding SCOUT, One of Its Benefits
A benefit of SCOUT is it allows one to compare the relative performances of players with markedly different sample sizes — to compare, for example, the performance of Detroit minor leaguer Adam Wilk (who posted a 21.5% K and 4.7% BB in 149.2 IP) to Pittsburgh’s Phil Irwin (31.5% K and 7.9% BB in 21.0 IP).

Regarding the International League, Its Regular Season
The International League’s regular season ended on September 3rd, it appears. As such, all following numbers are final for 2012.

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Daily Notes, Featuring a Not Unimportant Game in LA

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 15:35 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 15:35 ET
Regarding This Game What’s Notable About It
A thing that’s notable about this game between the Tigers and Angels is how it’s not unimportant so far as the postseason fate of each of the named teams is concerned.

Regarding the Tigers, Their Playoff Odds
According to Cool Standings, Detroit currently has a 32.4% chance of making the playoffs: a 29.3% probability of winning the AL central and 3.1% one of qualifying for the wild-card game.

Regarding the Angels, Their Playoff Odds
According to the same helpful internet source cited above, Los Angeles’s playoff odds are currently at 36.3%, including a 2.2% chance of winning the AL West and 34.1% one of qualifying for the wild-card game.

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Daily Notes, Featuring an Executive Decision

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Texas at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Texas at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
Regarding What’s Necessary, Sometimes
Sometimes a thing that’s necessary is what’s commonly referred to as an “executive decision.”

Regarding an “Executive Decision,” When It’s Necessary
An executive decision is necessary if someone’s drowning, probably, in a pool. Someone needs to be like, “Hey, let’s save that person.”

Regarding an “Executive Decision,” When Else It’s Necessary
Another time an executive decision is necessary is also if someone’s drowning in a secluded and beautiful private lake — like in Maine, or something. An independent-minded sort, one whose character has been commended from an early age, must announce, “Despite the dangers to our own, individual persons, we are bound by a moral imperative to rescue this imperiled swimmer from his own grievous and watery grave.”

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Eno Sarris

Episode 238
RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Discussed:
• Forgetting to activate a player, the sorrow and pity of such an oversight.
• Owners who bend league rules, how we ought to regard them.
• Young and recently recalled pitchers — ones like Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, and Andrew Werner.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 43 min. play time.)

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FanGraphs Audio: A. Gordon, T. Collins, G. Holland

Episode 237
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks with Royals excellent outfielder — and maybe most-underrated playerAlex Gordon and also excellent relievers Tim Collins and Greg Holland.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 17 min. play time.)

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Daily Notes, Featuring Maximum Scherzer Coverage

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 22:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Detroit at Los Angeles AL, 22:05 ET
Regarding the Title of This Post, Its Verity
The reader should be advised that the title of this post, which suggests that what follows contains the exact maximum amount of coverage in re Detroit right-hander Max Scherzer, might not be entirely accurate.

Regarding This Post, Its Actual Amount of Scherzer Coverage
In truth, this post probably has something more like 5% or 3% of the total possible Scherzer coverage available.

Regarding the Author’s Indulgence, What Might Have Caused It
It’s entirely possible that the author composed the title of this post amidst a flight of enthusiasm — the sort of enthusiasm, in fact, with which one is filled at the prospect of Max Scherzer pitching.

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Shelby Miller’s Debut, Animated

Cardinals right-hander Shelby Miller was ranked fourth overall among all prospects by our Marc Hulet on his preseason top-100 list and within the top 10 on most other lists of that sort. Despite a poor start to his season at Triple-A Memphis, Miller was excellent over his last 10 starts there, posting a 70:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 59 innings.

After being officially recalled to the majors on Tuesday, Miller made his major-league debut in relief on Wednesday afternoon against the New York Mets, posting this mostly cartoonish line in a 6-2 Cardinals loss (box): 2.0 IP, 7 TBF, 4 K, 0 BB, 2 GB on 3 batted-balls (66.7%), -0.16 xFIP.

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